(Spoilers Extended) An Obscure ASOIAF YouTuber I Am A Fan Of Thought Of The Soiled Knight Chapter In A Way I Never Thought Of Before
▲ 20 r/asoiaf

(Spoilers Extended) An Obscure ASOIAF YouTuber I Am A Fan Of Thought Of The Soiled Knight Chapter In A Way I Never Thought Of Before

Background

What would you say is objectively the worse chapter of the series? Not counting early chapters where GRRM's Garden was just starting to grow, many would say THE SOILED KNIGHT. Why? for a couple reasons:

  1. It's mostly relies on Arianne's sexiness to keep you entertained, a clear example of the male gaze in motion.
  2. Much of the set up occurs near the end and could easily be removed in favor of THE QUEENMAKER near the end.
  3. It doesn't really advance the plot forward other than explaining the seduction of Arys Oakheart and why Arianne hates her father.
  4. Aerys Oakheart isn't that interesting and dies immediately after. Hell, Quentyn's chapters have more of a point.

Other than it being written and read with one hand for author and fan alike, it's seemingly superflous.

Or is it?

MykeTheCreator is a YouTuber who is the definition of a hidden gem. Despite his long hiatuses, his content is my favorite among the ASOIAFTuber community. I enjoy how he pays close attention to GRRM's work, the dark and sinister atmosphere of his theories combined with analysis of the themes and symbolism of the books and their historical influences.

He released a video today that made me rethink the purpose of THE SOILED KNIGHT by highlighting power dynamics in feudal society, the connections between Arianne and Criston Cole, a critique and analysis of the Dornish plotline in A FEAST FOR CROWS and how it connects to the upcoming 2nd Dance of the Dragons.

I am not going to spoil it, but I am always willing to give talented creators a shout out so I reccomend you check him out down below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH-RCeL3luo&t=1s

u/madhipsteraj — 9 hours ago
▲ 0 r/naath+1 crossposts

One Of HOTD’s Biggest Problems Starts With A B

House of the Dragon is the epitome of wasted potential and structural incompetence. Between GRRM being scammed into taking Ryan Condal’s side only for him to completely wipe his ass with the source material, the bewildering changes from an anti war tragedy into someone’s yaoi fanfic, and what I can only describe as a misogynist’s interpretation of feminism, it’s a mess.

Plenty YouTubers have pointed out the numerous problems with the story, plot, and characters. But today I think that one of the biggest, if not THE biggest issues with this show, is that its so fucking boring.

I can’t believe that we will have three seasons with barely anything happening. The fact that an in-universe history without any POV based upon the Rashoman effect has a better structure and cohesive narrative than a prime time television show.

Of course if you haven’t read Fire & Blood and do not intend to read it, you may be wondering what I mean. 

I’ll give you a hint, what is the most expensive aspect of any fantasy show or medieval epic? That’s right, the battle scenes.

There are approximately 17 major battles, duels, and skirmishes during the Dance. Adapting all of these would have been impossible even with the $200 million budget. Some would inevitably need to be cut. But unfortunately Ryan Condal and Sara Hess have decided to go the opposite direction and have cut nearly all the epic, bloody battles that should have at least taken up a decent chunk of the episodes time instead of the cringeworthy dialogue and character drama that instead took up most of the time.

What Goes Into A Battle

Battles, whatever the medium, are as costly as they are in real life, though instead of casualties and destruction, they cost time and capital. For simplicity’s sake let’s stick with cinema instead of comics or video games.

Now its very important to consider that a lot of a budget in a motion picture doesn’t go into the VFX and cinematography but also costuming, set design, and most importantly the salary of the cast. According to standard industry rates, prior fame and amount of screen time is what determines the size of the paycheck. 

Matt Smith for instance gets between $300,000 to $400,000 an episode. Unfortunately HBO doesn’t give transparent accounting of things like this so we have to rely on estimates and leaks.

The average episode gets just about $20 million per episode. Using the minimum total pay, it could be in the range of $13.5 million, leaving 6 million per episode. Now this may not seem like a ton of money to spend but keep in mind that the critically panned season of The Boys had an episode budget of $10 million and most of that went to the cast and crew.

A battle that takes place the whole episode is even more expensive. Blackwater for instance took $8 million and The Battle of the Bastards was $11 million. However some of these battles can have shall we say sparse description in the source material such as the Battle of The Burning Mill don’t need an entire episode to be shown. Between six-ten minutes not counting character set up and the depiction of the aftermath would be sufficient. Merging battles would also solve one of the major issues too.

Battles take up a lot of time, energy, and money in terms of sets and extras. There is only so much time you can shoot per season so it’s important to get them as right as possible. CGI can only do so much to cut costs and safety for both the cast members whether they be human or animal is paramount. The logistics of a fictional battle are just as important to a good battle scene as they are in war. If something can’t be done legally or ethically then it must either change or be excised.

Here’s the thing though: Money is only half the battle. You must have talent and experience if you are to be victorious in making a battle scene. And unlike Miguel Sapocnik, Ryan has no experience directing or planning out battles at all, relying solely on the discretion of the crew to make their half baked dribble work.

Miguel should have been the sole show runner all along. Not only did he have experience directing some of the most spectacular battle sequences in the original show but also appeared to be more loyal to GRRM’s vision regardless of any hiccups on the way.

Ryan Condal is simply ill tasked to be a show runner of a major epic fantasy series. His prior credits before HOTD included two unsuccessful Hollywood blockbusters and a television show on USA Network.

Meanwhile Miguel Sapocniks credits include a long career in plenty of cult and Emmy nominated television series. Even at his worst, the three episodes he wrote for the show were high quality and you can’t say he hasn’t had time to fix his mistakes.

Ryan may claim that adaptations require streamlining and that GRRM simply doesn’t know the realities of television but here’s the thing. The battles weren’t the only thing cut from the show. Entire plot lines and character arcs which would have required little in the way of budget, were entirely removed despite being in Fire & Blood. Dialogue and character motivations have been changed until they are unrecognizable and some of the changes are not only inferior to the source material but also of poor writing quality in general.

Instead of doing their best to adhere to GRRMs vision, Ryan and Sara have instead changed the story so much to the point that he has disowned the adaptation and the pair have entirely stopped even the pretense of following its spirit. It's their baby now and unfortunately they are poor parents.

How To Do A Battle

Even if we accept the reasonable argument that more than a couple battles per season were beyond Ryan Condal’s ability, was there really no chance of adapting said tussles? This is where Ryan should have taken a step back and wondered if he was truly cut out to be the sole show runner. A show runner is more than a producer or writer, he is the first among equals of the entire team, responsible for making sure everything runs on time. He is the architect that directs the carpenters to start a major problem.

My concern isn’t that Ryan was automatically incapable of writing battles. In terms of spectacle the Battle of Rook’s Nest and The Gullet were amazing even if certain writing choices ruined them. My problem is that I don’t think he even tried. Below are four examples of battles that Ryan really should have tried to research before making such a costly decision.

Film Title Total Cost Cinematography Techniques Effects Problems
Lord of the Rings $281 Million Shooting back to back over 274 days, clever forced perspective Utilization of extensive physical miniature models (big-atures) and local craftspeople Shooting back to back is impossible for a scripted television series unless renewed for multiple seasons simultaneously, mandatory labor laws in the EU that limit hours
Braveheart $53-$72 Million Split into manageable pockets of combat shot through long lenses to give the illusion of big battles Used 1500 reserves from the Irish Army as extras, dressed them individually in hand crafted costumes with fake blood, paint, and dirt, used fake horses on tracks to simulate calvary crashes and rivalry throws. Was done without digital effects, required six weeks to shoot for immaculate framing.
Ran $11.5 Million Shot with three camera’s simultaneously to capture the chaotic action, filmed from high wooden scaffolding or through the trees Relied on practical effects, specifically 1,400 extras and 200 horses outfitted with hand crafted armor and costumes, clever use of music to show tone It is obvious that Horses are being truly injured in the sequence, which in addition to being immoral is against animal cruelty laws
Conan The Barbarian $20 million Shot on location in Spain, modeled after a classic western with, stakes, and intimate fighting spaces to present a clear lauout Heavy Physical Combat was directed by veteran stunt coordinators, real swords used for wideshots until switched for fibergrass props, actors did their own stunts Considering how common set accidents are it could have easily gone wrong, requires intense physical labor

Introduction

Now as you can see all four examples have their pros and cons but notice something odd? Each battle scene makes use of clever filming techniques and cost cutting measures to save time and money while making a great product. You cannot claim they didn’t have time because a typical season takes around 7-8 months. So even if they had to cut some battles for time and budget constraints, they could have easily done the none Dragon involved battles they cut such as the Burning Mill, Fishfeed, and Duskendale had they made the effort. The money traps would be any battle or duel that involves Dragons. And most importantly they do not account for modern techniques such as CGI and VFX.

This contrast was the cause of the split between Miguel and Ryan. Miguel wanted a dark, gritty anti war polemic, while Ryan wanted a Shakespearan drama. That’s not even getting into rumors that HBO refused to hire Miguel’s wife and the possibility that HBO was being stingy with the budget and artists are they have been in the pasts. This much like GOT was a victim of oversimplification and unnecessary changes that either bit the story in the ass or made certain things from the books impossible to film, self inflicted for the vision of the showrunner instead of the original writer.

Now season 2’s bad quality could be best explained as a victim of the strike, with first drafts and no rewrites. Unfortunately, Season 3 has revealed this to be a farce with the ridiculous and insulting changes. Even diehard supporters have cried foul.

I honestly have no hope for the future of the series. Ryan Condal is simply ill tasked to do a series like this and his justifications to his critics ring hollow as our his excuses. It is obvious that the man either didn’t read the source material or simply thinks his writing skill is better than it truly is. Hopefully, AKOTSK will have a decent run. I heard George is working hard on the next two novellas so maybe he’ll be motivated to finish something given his love for the series.

Sources

https://www.reddit.com/r/HouseOfTheDragon/comments/1d3oksc/cast_of_season_2_ranked_by_pay_grade_according_to/

https://movie-locations.com/movies/b/Braveheart.php

https://theasc.com/article/japanese-method-for-ran-kurosawa/

https://variety.com/2016/film/news/lord-of-the-rings-making-of-backstory-business-1201936646/

https://www.reddit.com/r/HouseOfTheDragon/comments/1ek077f/how_does_hotd_film_their_episodes/

https://web.archive.org/web/20240904154210/https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2024/09/04/beware-the-butterflies/

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-features/george-rr-martin-interview-thrones-winds-dragon-knight-1236473519/

https://www.adweek.com/lostremote/know-why-house-of-the-dragon-co-showrunner-miguel-sapochnik-stepped-down/

u/madhipsteraj — 20 days ago

Is There A Fan Archived Version Of The PS3 Store (All Regions)?

Hello all. After the PS3 store closes next year I intend to first backup my PS3 through a flash drive and then mod my PS3 to open it up for new experiences.

Anyway I was wondering if there was an archived version of the PS3 store not just NA but also JP and PAL. I ask because i know there is a fan recreation of PlayStation Home and Network servers. Not too important, I just want the option for nostalgia's sake.

reddit.com
u/madhipsteraj — 1 month ago

ASOIAF Figures That Could Use A Video Or Two

P.S. Tyrion is a much more vile character in the books albeit in a tragic way and what he plans for Daenerys and (f)Aegon is just dastardly…

u/madhipsteraj — 2 months ago

Who is the most Vile?

Some picks I rarely or never see reccomended.

  1. Bondrewd - Made In Abyss

  2. Robin Inazaki - Heavenly Delusion

  3. The Combine - Half Life 2

  4. The Jackal - Far Cry 2

  5. George Hearst - Deadwood

  6. Bastion - X-Men '97

  7. Brother Justin Crowe - Carnivale

  8. Harry McDowell - Gungrave

  9. Kazuo Yoshii - Texhnolyze

u/madhipsteraj — 2 months ago
▲ 24 r/asoiaf

(Spoilers Extended) Fifteen Years For Over 1303 Pages of ASOIAF Related Material: A Slightly Pessimistic Recounting of GRRM'S Progress on TWOW, B&F, D&E, and More!

Introduction

Before I get endless amounts of the same comment over and over again, let me make something personally clear: Even though I personally believe the Winds of Winter will be released at some point I AM NOT GIVING A DATE OR PREDICTION OF WHEN OR IF THAT WILL BE.

That is beyond everyone's paygrade, even George's apparently so please save yourself some time on this earth and don't waste either of our time. Nor am I condoning or condemning the long hiatus between stories. I personally think GRRM should work on something else other than ASOIAF as many of his ideas he proposed below sound great to me:

>IF I had all the time in the world, I would finish THE WINDS OF WINTER and A DREAM OF SPRING, write another six or eight or ten Dunk & Egg novellas, complete the second volume of FIRE & BLOOD... then I might go back my unfinished historical BLACK AND WHITE AND RED ALL OVER, do some Wild Cards stories and maybe a Wild Cards novel, write some new Haviland Tuf stories, spec a few pilot scripts for my own GAME OF THRONES successor shows, do a sequel to FEVRE DREAM, return to the Thousand Worlds for a huge space opera... and then do something completely different, like a murder mystery or a western. -FIRE & BLOOD : On The Way

Yes I enjoy his other stories: Fevre Dream is one of my favorites followed by a bunch of Thousand Worlds short stories like SEVEN TIMES NEVER KILL MAN AND SONG FOR LYA.

Instead I'd like to analyze GRRM's own estimations of progress and showcase how screwed or not we are in getting another book or novella.

The Winds Of Winter - 1100 Pages

As of the year of our lord, 2026, GRRM has confirmed that a solid 1100 pages or 70% of the novel is finished. We have no reason to believe or doubt these numbers and either way he is our only source save for Elio & Linda, Dan & Ty, and his publishers:

GRRM has given different but troubling explanations for why the book hasn't been complete yet but one is the complexity of the plot:

>“The Winds of Winter is not so much a novel as a dozen novels, each with a different protagonist, each having a different cast of supporting players and antagonists and allies and lovers around them, and all of these weaving together in an extremely complex fashion. So it’s very, very challenging. Fire and Blood by contrast was very simple. Not that it’s easy, it still took me years to put together, but it is easier.”- Interview

Another is having a focus on finishing every remaining plot thread in the series before A DREAM OF SPRING:

>And really, when you think about it, this was inevitable.   The novels are much bigger and much much more complex than the series.   Certain things that happened on HBO will not happen in the books.   And vice versa.   I have viewpoint characters in the books never seen on the show: Victarion Greyjoy, Arianne Martell, Areo Hotah, Jon Connington, Aeron Damphair   They will all have chapters, and the things they do and say will impact the story and the major characters who were on the show.   I have legions of secondary characters, not POVs but nonetheless important to the plot, who also figure in the story: Lady Stoneheart, Young Griff,  the Tattered Prince, Penny, Brown Ben Plumm, the Shavepate, Marwyn the Mage, Darkstar, Jeyne Westerling.  Some characters you saw in the show are quite different than the versions in the novels.   Yarra Greyjoy is not Asha Greyjoy, and HBO’s Euron Greyjoy is way, way, way, way different from mine.   Quaithe still has a part to play.  So does Rickon Stark.   And poor Jeyne Poole.   And… well, the list is long.    (And all this is part of why WINDS is taking so long.   This is hard, guys).

>Oh, and there will be new characters as well.   No new viewpoints, I promise you that, but with all these journeys and battles and scheming to come, inevitably our major players will be encountering new people in lands far and near. - A Winter Garden

Elio also confirmed it in the interview below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDXQo1_o_Xo

Finally he fully confessed to having shot himself in the foot by killing a character he needed to move the plot forward:

>“We’re having this conversation, and I was asking him, how’s it going? The newest book?
And he said I’m having all kinds of trouble. He said, you ever killed somebody off that you later realized you knew you needed?
And I said, no, George, that’s never happened to me.
We talked further, and he said, I just painted myself into a corner.”
“I said, ‘you paint yourself into a corner, you get yourself a new bucket of paint and paint yourself back out, and do the floor behind you!’”
It’s not known for certain when the clip was filmed, and when this conversation took place, but a user on Reddit claimed to hear Gabaldon relay this anecdote at a similar event “a few years ago”. - article from 2018

Personally, all of these along with his perfectionism is almost certainly the cause of the delay. But I have to end this with a downer. GRRM originally said he had around 1100-1200 manuscript pages. But somewhere between 2023 and now he seemed to remove or edit at least a hundred pages:

>When the pandemic hit, Martin tried going to a literal cabin in the woods to finish Winter. That was a prolific stretch, he says, resulting in many new chapters. But it took him away from his longtime partner, Parris McBride (they met in the 1970s and tied the knot in 2011), and even Martin’s forced-isolation effort ran into creative troubles. “I wrote a Tyrion chapter I just loved,” he recalls. “Then I looked at it and said: ‘I can’t do this, it will change the whole book. I’ll make this into a series of dreams. No! That doesn’t work either …'” - https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-features/george-rr-martin-interview-thrones-winds-dragon-knight-1236473519/

His last update on progress was in 2024:

>Nor did I find much solace in my work.   Writing came hard, and though I did produce some new pages on both THE WINDS OF WINTER (yes) and BLOOD & FIRE (the sequel to FIRE & BLOOD, the second part of my Targaryen history), I would have liked to turn out a lot more. - A Belated Blog

Personally I still think he can do it but only the seven know when, where, and how.

Blood & Fire - 100-200 Pages?

This along with more Dunk & Egg I am slightly more optimistic will be released in our lifetime for the simple reason that it is way less complex than the main line series. According to George R.R. Martin himself it will:

>The second volume, which will carry the history from Aegon III up to Robert’s Rebellion, is largely unwritten, so that one will be a few more years in coming.-The Swords Are Drawn

George R.R. Martin said in 2022:

>In addition to WINDS, I also need to deliver the second volume of Archmaester Gyldayn’s history, FIRE & BLOOD.   (Thinking of calling that one BLOOD & FIRE, rather than just F&B, Vol 2).   Got a couple hundred pages of that one written, but there’s still a long way to go. - Random Updates and Bits o’ News

In addition, at the end of FIRE & BLOOD, he discussed bits of what BLOOD & FIRE would cover starting with the Dragonbane:

>GRRM: Well, this book only goes up to the regency of Aegon and ends when Aegon III actually reaches manhood and takes control, so I have his reign to cover, which includes the deaths of the last dragons. Although Aegon III is called the Dragonbane, there are still three or four dragons kicking around when he takes the crown and there are none by the time he’s over, so that’s one thing I was going to cover—why and what happens there—and some of the troubles and rebellions of his reign

Then Daeron The Conqueror:

>Daeron I, the Young Dragon, who conquers Dorne. He’s a fourteen-year-old Alexander the Great kind of hero-king figure, but he dies young.

Blessed Baelor:

>And then his brother Baelor takes over, and Baelor is very religious, he’s more of a Saint Louis kind of figure—a little extreme in his religiosity. Among other things, he imprisons his three sisters—in luxurious imprisonment in the Red Keep, in the Maidenvault. But he doesn’t like them walking around the court because they tempt him. They have breasts and things underneath their clothes and he finds that very disturbing to contemplate, so he hides them away. So, I’ll tell their stories and I’ll tell Baelor’s story

Aegon The Unworthy:

>And then, after him, we get the brief reign of Viserys II, and then his son Aegon IV, Aegon the Unworthy, takes over, and he’s a very colorful figure. I obviously drew on Henry VIII for him—Henry VIII had six wives, Aegon the Unworthy had nine mistresses. And they all exist in my head, I know who they all were and what happened to each of them—who had their heads chopped off and who had affairs, so there’s a lot of cool material there.

Five Total Blackfyre Rebellions:

>And then you get into the Blackfyre Rebellions, of which there were five. I’ve referred to them frequently so I’ll get all the details on the Blackfyre Rebellions in. And ultimately we’ll get to the Mad King and Robert’s Rebellion, and that’s where I’ll draw it to a close.

And a bit about the bond between Dragon & Dragonrider from last year:

>

They bond with men… some men… and the why and how of that, and how it came to be, will eventually be revealed in more detail in THE WINDS OF WINTER and A DREAM OF SPRING and some in BLOOD & FIRE**.**  (Septon Barth got much of it right).  - Here There Be Dragons

I can't find the exact interview with Redteamreview and Preston Jacobs but Elio Garcia Jr said that he recently worked on Aegon the Unworthy, Aerys the Mad, and Aegon the Unlikely. I had taken this to mean that George had made significant progress on BLOOD & FIRE but he himself disabused me of this notion:

>I think you may be misremembering some remark I made before. I have said that George wrote a little bit about Egg as part of The World of Ice and Fire, above and beyond the original material that became most of Fire and Blod [sic]. But he also wrote a bit about Aerys II, too, and Aegon IV as well. They are isolated pieces and are not part of a larger completed history, at least not yet.

>When he left off Fire and Blood, the continuin
g reign of Aegon III, his children, Aegon IV's full reign, Daeron the Good, and so on were not yet written. How far George has advanced on that, I do not know. - Comment on (Spoilers Extended) Why It's Okay To Be Optimistic Regarding More Dunk & Egg

The She Wolves Of Winterfell/ The Village Hero - 2-3 Pages Each?

At the beginning of this year, GRRM made a stunning confession about progress in two novellas long in development:

These are probably the most likely stories to get a release date considering that AKOTSK is currently ongoing and that he has a dozen outlines plotted out for each novella in the series:

GRRM has given the plot of She Wolves (Which is not the final title as the following:

>The unfinished novella was indeed set in Winterfell, and involved a group of formidable Stark wives, widows, mothers, and grandmothers that I dubbed 'the She-Wolves,' but "The She-Wolves of Winterfell" was never meant to be more than a working title.  - Dunk and Egg, 2013 Not A Blog

>I was suggesting it would be nice to see the Starks in power, without the current disarray. But GRRM pointed out that things were not so good 90 years either, with a lot of Stark widows struggling for power, with the current lord dieing from a wound taken against some Ironborn. - Boskone (Boston, MA; February 17-19) 2019 SSM

>

[Have there ever been a ruling Lady of Winterfell or Queen of Winter?]

>No. Although I do hope to someday write the Dunk & Egg story where they travel to Winterfell and meet the She-Wolves. - Various questions concerning Tywin, Oberyn, Gregor, the North, and Sansa, 2008 SSM

Furthermore, he vaguely mentioned the plot of the The Village Hero:

>There's also another Dunk & Egg novella that I've got roughed out in my head, with the working title "The Village Hero."  That one takes place in the Riverlands. - Dunk and Egg, 2013 Not A Blog

He also named the following four Dunk & Egg tales:

>But I do have notes and fairly specific ideas for a number of them. There's the one set in the north that people have been calling "The She-Wolves of Winterfell," though that will not actually be the title. After that -- or maybe before, if I jump around in time -- there will be "The Village Hero," "The Sellsword," "The Champion," "The Kingsguard," "The Lord Commander," and several more in between. - How Many Seasons?

And a midquel set between THE HEDGE KNIGHT and THE SWORN SWORD:

>and maybe I need to write that Dornish adventure too to slip in between “The Hedge Knight” and “The Sworn Sword,” and after that there are… ah… more.  - A Knight and a Squire

Before AKOTSK GRRM confirmed the following plotpoints:

>Yes, ultimately Egg will become king, but that's a long and winding road, and the subject for many a later story... - Egg and the Targaryens 1998 SSM

>[Summary: sandrews asks if Duncan from the Hedge Knight fathered a family, is the family existant at the time of the books, why Aemon Targaryen did not appear in the story, and whether Dany has any kin in Lys because of Aerion Brightfire's exile.]

>The answers to (i) and (ii) will have to wait until I write more stories of Dunk and Egg, or possibly until later volumes in A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE. - Many Questions 1998 SSM

>Who is Prince Duncan the Small? Did Egg name one of his sons after Dunk?

>Well, that would be telling...

>[Note: Second mail begins here.]

>telling what? are we going to find out more about Dunk, Egg and Duncan the Small?

>Yes, I hope to write more Dunk & Egg stories one day. - Duncan the Small and the Young Starks 2000 SSM

>He WILL collect the stories of Dunk and Egg into one book. I then asked if the story of Maekar's death (Egg's father) against an outlaw lord would be found in the Worldbook. He replied no, that will eventually make it into the Dunk and Egg stories. - Chicon 7 Reading 2012 SSM

>Summerhall was a lightly fortified castle that Daeron II built on the Dornish marches, roughly where Dorne, the Reach, and the Stormlands come together. It was a Targaryen castle and a royal residence, especially when Daeron was young, but as he grew older he left King's Landing less frequently, and Summerhall passed to his youngest son, Maekar. (Baelor had Dragonstone, and Aerys and Rhaegel seldom left the court). - Summerhall 1999 SSM

>

And if I eventually get to Summerhall, yes Summerhall will be included it is one of the key events. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3-r4eKAQaw&t=4360s

>

There will be more tourneys, in the Dunk and Egg books - To Be Continued (Chicago, IL; May 6-8) 2005 SSM

>I just wanted to ask - I know you have quite a lot of Dunk & Egg books planned - are we ever going to see Tanselle Too-Tall again? Are we going to find out what happened to her?

>Well, that would be telling. *laughs* But I think there’s a good chance, yes. - TusCon 43 Q&A 2016 SSM

>Future Dunk and Egg stories will be getting darker. (No detail was given as to when the next D&E story could appear.) - Boskone (Boston, MA; February 13-15) 2004 SSM

After the show, two more plot threads were confirmed by the cast of the first season, one expected, one out of left field.

We will see more of the Laughing Storm:

>There are currently three Dunk and Egg stories for the series to adapt; George RR Martin has assured Ings that Lyonel will appear in further adventures the author has yet to write. (Expect them to arrive sooner than The Winds of Winter.) - https://squaremile.com/culture/film-tv/daniel-ings-actor-interview/

And Dunk lives (!):

>"We know Dunk survives." - https://winteriscoming.net/dexter-sol-ansell-spoils-fate-huge-a-knight-of-the-seven-kingdoms-character

Untitled Aegon The Unworthy Novel - 0

Interestingly enough, GRRM discussed a niche idea for a novel to write after he finished ASOIAF:

>AUGUST 04, 2005

>INTERACTION

>(GLASGOW, SCOTLAND, UK; AUGUST 4-8)

>I asked if George really had an idea for an Aegon IV the Unworthy novel, first mentioned in this report

>Yes. He's a very interesting person. The idea would be to do it as a first person novel, a kind of I, Claudius meets Flashman thing. Aegon had something like nine mistresses, he had a difficult relationship with his queen and his brother, and so on. He was the worst king Westeros ever had. It's just an idea, though -- nothing set in stone, as he wasn't sure how well a first person story featuring that sort of character would work with readers.

Who's Who in Westeros? - ?

Like the official cookbook, GRRM discussed another cash grab (hey I liked it) spin off compendium of various characters in the series, basically a guide for normies like my mom who can't keep track of all the characters:

>And another book after that, a Who’s Who in Westeros.  And that’s just the books. - Random Updates and Bits o’ News

But amazingly, this too has been delayed because GRRM keeps writing new characters:

>The other book  mentioned in that post of 3/9, the Who’s Who of Westeros, is coming as well, but not this fall.   That one is a way off.   Might be a year or two.   Lot of work to be done.   (As my editors complain, it is hard to do a who’s who when I keep inventing characters). - This, That, and t’Other Things

Braavosi Mystery and Other Novellas - 0

Over the years GRRM has mentioned various ideas for spin off novellas including a mystery story set in Braavos:

>Some ideas he has for future Westeros stories are (and again I stress he has not confirmed yet that he will do these) a novel on Aegon IV "The UnWorthy" from his POV and also a story set in Braavos and the Free Cities - possibly some kind of murder mystery type thing. (2005)

Another idea was one about Nettles:

>Q: Is there a character you would like to explore more or write about in ASOIAF or Fire & Blood?

>A: Well yes there are tons of characters, one of the things about F&B in particular, is its nature as a history meant I was summarizing things. There was always a part of me, in the back of mind, said "I could write a whole novel about that character." I could at least write a story about them like Nettles. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R4c_2uaxT8&t=24s

He also thought about various period and location based novellas before and after deciding on Dunk & Egg:

>Q: What do you think about open ended series?

>

A: I think it is all right in, say, detective stories, when you have a detective resolving still new cases, but each story can stand alone. A fantasy series should have an ending. I may return to Westeros, to write stories set in the distand lands, as Braavos and other free cities, in the past, or in the future (important! It shows that Westeros does have a future), but ASOIAF will end. - 2002

>I had no idea what I would write when I accepted Silverberg’s invitation.   A Westeros story, certainly, that was the concept.   It could not be a sequel, not without spoiling the things I had in mind for A CLASH OF KINGS and the later volumes.  I could do a sidebar, perhaps.   A stand-alone story featuring one of my supporting players, maybe.  Robert Baratheon before he was king, say.  Barristan Selmy might do, or one of his brothers of the Kingsguard… maybe the Sword of the Morning.  I could write about Robert’s Rebellion or the Ninepenny Kings, or maybe set something in Oldtown at the Citadel.  I mulled all the possibilities. but in the end I decided to go back even further, to a period of Westeros history I had not yet explored at all… virgin territory.   And the setting would be…

>… a tournament. - A Tourney at Ashford

reddit.com
u/madhipsteraj — 2 months ago

Why Won't Document Manager Work?

Hello everyone. I joined FanFiction.net when I was 14. Its been a couple years since I updated my story since I am mostly on AO3 now.

Having several chapters I haven't published on FF.net I thought it'd be fun to finally update.

But when I tried it didn't work. It kept saying there was a error in which I didn't have the correct format, that it might be too large, or that it was password protected.

Only problem is that it is none of those things. I've tried uploading different formsts, changed browsers, even tried copy and paste but nothing worked.

Apparently this is a glitch many people experience. My question is, is there a way to fix it or am I screwed?

reddit.com
u/madhipsteraj — 2 months ago
▲ 0 r/asoiaf

(Spoilers Extended) My Pitch For A Witcher 3 Style ASOIAF RPG

Introduction,

As we all know, ASOIAF has some terrible video games despite being the perfect canvas for gaming. The problem is fourfold.

  1. Considering how big the World of Ice and Fire is, there is no way that any openworld is big enough to show everything. A Big Battle alone is impossible to code and create.
  2. Magic isn't a system that can be controlled with a set system but a force that is inherently unstable and terrible, meaning that using it as a gameplay mechanic is impossible without GRRM revealed more.
  3. ASOIAF isn't focused on fighting monsters and beasts but the heart in conflict with itself and political intrigue. If done wrong this could be boring for most players and requires writing as good as what GRRM has written, not a easy task at all.
  4. Things that can be done in literature cannot be done in games without a A rating, making a proper adaptation hard if not unmarketable. While it could break some gaming taboos, at some point its going have to favor restraint over monstrousity.

Of course a talented development team can make do with what they have a make as faithful an adaptation as possible. It would require some distractions from George and a lot of time and money but it can be done. But another problem presents itself and that is the scope of its history. You'd have to get creative and use a time period that has enough vague contours to give the developer enough leeway without pissing off ASOIAF Fans.

Personally I think a perfect gameplay model would be a merger between Total War, Mount & Blade, Crusader Kings, and Thronebreaker but a epic Skyrim/Witcher 3 game is off the cards... Or is it?

I have a proposal that if given the funding and time should satisfy everyone. Keep in mind that I have only a basic knowledge of ludology and narratology and have no experience or knowledge of running either indie projects or a massive AAA development team so take what I say with a greain of salt. I'd also have to limit myself to what is possible and not waste time on scope creep.

Lets go!

Setting

Our tale takes place before, during, and after the succession crisis between House Peake and House Manderly after Garth X Gardener leaves behind no heirs. Assasinations and conspiracies descend into a ten year civil war that turns the land of plenty into hell on earth as lords, knights, septons, maesters, outlaws, broken men, free companies, pirates, and invaders each pick sides with their own plots and schemes. While treversing this pointless battlefield, you encounter men and women both highborn and lowborn, good and evil, loyalists and traitors, and most are somewhat in between as this conflict threatens the stability of the entire continent.

- The Mander: Our Main Map, it is gargantuan and goes from Oldtown in the Southwest to Highgarden in the North. Below are DLC.

- The Iron Islands: While in Exile you navigate the entirety of the isles as you circumvent the complex bloodfeuds, and austere culture via ship.

- Castle Black & Beyond The Wall: The final map after the main story ends, you spend the end of your life at the Night's Watch in its peak where you untagle one final conspiracy as you rise to be first ranger and have to juggle neutrality as you protect the realm one last time against both a plot that could destroy the Night's Watch as Wildlings and Giants attempt to break The Wall...

Story

- Our Story follows the life of Tad and his transformation from young farm boy to a Knight of great renown and minor lord until his ultimate downfall over a 66 year time period as he forced to make choices between loyalty to his liege lords, kingdom, or family. Over time Tadd has no choice but to interfere in the Reach's game of thrones and may recieve boons or punishments from whatever lord he chooses to serve as his actions have unforeseen consequences on both the battlefield and intrigues.

- The Conflict is between the Manderly and the Peakes. The Manderly's are ancient scions of noble houses who are honorable but decadent while the Peakes are grasping yet humbler. You may turn your cloak at any point for an advantage but buyer beware: This war is ultimately pointless and futile and your actions may have devastating consequences on the populace and geopolitics as the Dornish, Durrandons, Ironborn, and Lannisters nibble at the Kingdom's edges.

- Based off the War of the Roses, the Anarchy, Sengoku Period, and War of Spanish Succession.

- Learn more about the Faith of the Seven, The Order of the Green Hand, the Order of Maesters, and more!

- Tagline is "Are You A Kingsman or Kingmaker?"

- Takes place thousands of years before the modern series meaning the country's primeval beasts such as Mammoth's, Lions, Direwolves, Great Elk, etc are still present but will be exterpirated by the end of the story.

- Witness tons of in universe stories, tales, myths, and legends, through found books and scrolls as you learn to read..

Gameplay Mechanics

- Core Gameplay Loop: Third Person realtime action, kind of similar to Soulsborne but with the ability to block and parry. As a Knight Errant, you go around fighting NPCs of varying difficulty. Lowborn bandits and freeriders are the easiest to fight since they are of uncertain skill and have little armor while highborn lords, knights, and sellswords are the hardest since they have both superior martial skill and heavy plate armor. How do you defeat them? You have a choice between honorable or pragmatic. Honorable basically relies on tanking and blocking the hits while you overpower the opponent while pragmatic requires relying on your wits and dirty tactics where you memorize the movements of your foe while hoping to either tire them out, make them angry, getting them off balance, or using tricks to win the day. Pragmatic is more effective while honorable gets you more XP. Sometimes a mix of both are required. Different weapons and armor offer advantages or disadvantages. For instance a man with Valyrian Steel will win almost every time if you try to play honorably. You can also target limbs and the head like in Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem. Be warned though: Fighting relies on strength and stamina and you have a finite amount of that as you move through the game.

- Radical Dialogue System: Instead of boring dialogue trees and static player choices, let's innovate a little like Baldur's Gate 3. There are three kinds of expansive dialogue options: Symmetric dialogue for certain characters who know the same as you, trees within trees for characters with imprecise information, and timing based dialogue options for dangerous situations, tough choices, and conflicts.

- Nemesis System: The only system owned by Warner Bros capable of instituting the battles and sieges in a third person real time action as well as the duels and feuds that affect nobility and smallfolk alike. While Shadow of Mordor/War have the same uses here, along with some innovative use in social changes & political sabotage, management & strategy, and even minigames. Narratively it could be used for political intrigues & betrayals, mentorship & comraderie, mentorship & corruption, inheritance and legacies. In short it would be perfect for A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE.

- Minigames: Gain fame and XP through martial games such as Jousting, Quintains, Riding At Rings, Horse Racing, Melees, Archery, Axe Throwing, Tiles, Dice, Drinking, and Wrestling.

- Sidequests: Both dynamic & scripted. Combines the Nemesis System with little choices having big consequences such as clearing bandits, hunting outlaws, engaging in hunting & fishing, mask balls, mummers shows, harvest feasts, etc. As for scripted quests some are funny, some are dark, some are triumphant and nearly all are references to things GRRM has read or watched.

- Sanity Effects: For the more horror based sections of the game such as via PTSD flashbacks, alcohol based delirium, and the rare moments you encounter something magical.

- Romance Options: Class based, as you move up in fame and rank, different romances are available for our main character, some must be secret and mindful of feudal gender roles, others are socially acceptable. The occasional same sex option is available.

Development Team?

The obvious choice would have been Warner Bros Studios but in an act of boundless stupidity its susiderary company shut them down.

From Software may be another option given Hidetaka Miyazaki being such a fan and collaborator of GRRM. CDProjekt Red sounds like another great choice but would they be willing to do it considering how busy they are? The same goes for Bethesda.

But my personal choice for studio is personally Obsidian Entertainment. They have experience writing and developing RPGs like this and would have Microsoft's backing as well.

Of course I'd personally hire back 40+ ex Telltale Games/Obsidian Entertainment writiers since the story has to be immaculate or close enough to it for the game to work. I'd say a massive budget of 100M and a 5-7 year development cycle would be sufficient to make a great game.

Then again, given Microsoft's and Warner Bros immoral owners and shareholders having fingers with human right's abusers (Larry Ellison, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE) you might not want to buy it anyway.

reddit.com
u/madhipsteraj — 2 months ago
▲ 398 r/asoiaf

(Spoilers Extended) How Much And What Of The Winds Of Winter Is Complete?

Introduction

Winter is coming, complete or not but until then, what exactly constitutes the 70% of WINDS GRRM has said is finished? Let’s try and find out!

Four Battles

ADWD is to this day incomplete. The ending wasn’t finished by the time DANCE was published in 2011. It was supposed to finish with what fans colloquially refer as the Battle of Ice (Stannis’s march on Winterfell) and Battle of Fire (the clusterfuck at Meereen) but back when Penguin still could tell GRRM what to do and before GAME OF THRONES completely fucked it up for all of us, he was forced to cut the intended ending.

Furthermore, according to George there was around 200 pages left over from Dance after nearing the manuscript limit:

>At one point late in the process DANCE was considerably longer. The page count had gone beyond 1600 and was creeping up toward 1700, to my alarm. (At 1700 pages the book could not have been published in a single volume).

We will get to the other chapters in the next section but it’s clear that these two battles were the intended climax of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS:

>"I'm going to open with the two big battles that I was building up to, the battle in the ice and the battle at Meereen—the battle of Slaver's Bay. And then take it from there."

But somewhere during the development, two more battles were added that were heavily foreshadowed in the previous two books. That is the Battle of Steel (The Golden Company taking Storm’s End) and the apocalyptic Battle of Blood (Euron’s plan to magically fuck up the Redwyne Straits).

If we take the minimum amount of chapters for each battle including the monstrous Battle of Fire, the total number of chapters  is 10. That’s not counting THE FORSAKEN as preparation for the Battle of Blood and whether Tyrion, Barristan, or Victarion get another chapter to close out the Battle of Fire meaning 13.

Removed From Dance

Before ADWD was complete, there were other chapters GRRM moved some chapters he finished in Dance but moved all to THE WINDS OF WINTER.

First is a 4th Bran Chapter (which I am willing to bet is as spoilerific and possibly the only complete Bran chapter in the TWOW manuscript) which caused George’s publisher to ban any further viewing of other copies.

According to George he was working on a third Arianne chapter after finishing the two samples:

>What’s happened is, I’ve decided to move two completed chapters, from Arianne’s POV, out of the present volume and into THE WINDS OF WINTER. This is something I’ve gone back and forth on. Arianne wasn’t originally supposed to have any viewpoint chapters in DANCE at all, but there’s this… hmmm, how vague do I want be? VERY vague, I think… there’s this event that would of necessity provoke a Dornish reaction. The event was originally going to occur near the end of the book, but in one of my forty-seven restructures I moved it to the late middle instead. And the timeline then required that the Dornish reaction happen in this book and not the next one, so I wrote the two Arianne chapters and was going to write a third…

Elio also implied a Areo chapter was cut:

>George and I discussed the world book (during which I learned something about one of the characters who’ll appear in the three Dornish chapters he’s moved to The Winds of Winter

Aeron was also cut from Dance:

>Just kicked Aeron Damphair's scraggly arse out of DANCE WITH DRAGONS. He only had the only chapter, and it will work better early in the next book than late in this one. (That's how it looks to me today, anyway. I reserve the right to change my mind).

Sansa’s sole chapter was moved into WINDS and another Arya chapter was moved into THE WINDS OF WINTER, the latter of which apparently took a decade to write:

>And hey, it’s even good news for WINDS OF WINTER, since I now have four chapters done for that one (an Arya, a Sansa, and two Ariannes).

> I mentioned that this chapter had quite a history.  It's true.  The first draft was written more than a decade ago.  Originally, it was intended to be the opening Arya chapter after the infamous "five year gap," her first appearance in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS as initially conceived.   Then it was supposed to be a part of A FEAST FOR CROWS, after I abandoned the five year gap and split the books.  Then it was going to be the concluding Arya chapter in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS.  But it seemed more like an opening chapter than a closing one, so shortly before ADWD was published my editor and I agreed to remove it from DANCE and shift it over into WINDS.  Of course, it has been revised, tightened, polished, and tweaked at every step of the way, so the version on my website has some significant differences from the "five year gap" version.

GRRM also implied that he wrote a Jon Connington chapter:

> And the timeline then required that the Dornish reaction happen in this book and not the next one, so I wrote the two Arianne chapters and was going to write a third… and a chapter from another POV that would be a necessary complement to them, and…

So if we count the samples mentioned above and the confirmed cut chapters that is 14.

Confirmed Chapter Count

During the long development of THE WINDS OF WINTER, George has seldom talked about his progress in great detail but when he does, he’s vague save for when he discusses a location, character, or POV. Occasionally he gives out a hint or plot point on an accident but that is rare.

In some cases such as with Jon Snow, Asha Greyjoy, and Victarion Greyjoy, he accidentally reveals that they are alive more than speculation expects:

>“I will open the last chapter I was working on and I’ll say, ‘Oh fuck, this is not very good.’ And I’ll go in and I’ll rewrite it. Or I’ll decide, ‘This Tyrion chapter is not coming along, let me write a Jon Snow chapter.’

>I've already read a number of chapters from TWOW on various conventions – I think, two Arianne chapters, a Sansa chapter, an Arya chapter and a couple of different Victarion chapters, I'm not sure what I read or haven't read, I think I've read some Asha Greyjoy chapters, all of this is a lot of chapters.

Nearly every confirmed POV save for Brandon Stark, Davos Seaworth, and Jon Snow has an extra chapter that hasn’t been released as shown here

If we were to go by the most confirmed chapters per POV, are Cersei, Tyrion, Victarion, Asha, Melisandre,and Arya.

So if we add the total confirmed chapters plus the prologue, the total complete chapters are 43.

Location, Location, Location!

When GRRM confirms which recurring characters shall return, we have a canvas of which chapter GRRM is either writing or thinking of. It’s an educated guess but we have some measure of where a chapter takes place. GRRM has said part of the difficulty in finishing WINDS is weaving every single plot thread together, of which there are many:

>"'The Winds of Winter' is not so much a novel as a dozen novels, each with a different protagonist, each having a different cast of supporting players and antagonists and allies and lovers around them, and all of these weaving together in an extremely complex fashion.

In 2023 GRRM gave a list of characters that will return in his last major update post before the Hollywood Reporter Interview, a blogpost titled A WINTER GARDEN:

>And really, when you think about it, this was inevitable.   The novels are much bigger and much much more complex than the series.   Certain things that happened on HBO will not happen in the books.   And vice versa.   I have viewpoint characters in the books never seen on the show: Victarion Greyjoy, Arianne Martell, Areo Hotah, Jon Connington, Aeron Damphair   They will all have chapters, and the things they do and say will impact the story and the major characters who were on the show.   I have legions of secondary characters, not POVs but nonetheless important to the plot, who also figure in the story: Lady Stoneheart, Young Griff,  the Tattered Prince, Penny, Brown Ben Plumm, the Shavepate, Marwyn the Mage, Darkstar, Jeyne Westerling.  Some characters you saw in the show are quite different than the versions in the novels.   Yarra Greyjoy is not Asha Greyjoy, and HBO’s Euron Greyjoy is way, way, way, way different from mine.   Quaithe still has a part to play.  So does Rickon Stark.   And poor Jeyne Poole.   And… well, the list is long.    (And all this is part of why WINDS is taking so long.   This is hard, guys).

A few years before, GRRM confirmed a couple more locations:

>Of late I have been spending a lot of time with the Lannisters.  Cersei and Tyrion in particular.   I’ve also paid a visit to Dorne, and dropped in to Oldtown a time or three.   In addition to turning out new chapters, I’ve been revising some old ones (some very old)… including, yes, some stuff I read at cons ages ago, or even posted online as samples.   I tweak stuff constantly, and sometimes go beyond tweaking, moving things around, combining chapters, breaking chapters in two, reordering stuff.

He also confirmed that new “cool” characters will appear along with some old favorites:

>I have some interesting new [colored] characters coming forward (not viewpoints, admittedly, but cool, I hope) you may like, and there will be more of Strong Belwas, Moqorro, Missandei, Irri, Jhiqui, the bloodriders, many other Dothraki, Chataya and Alayaya, Jhalabar Xho, and the captain and crew of the Cinnamon Wind.

>Westeros around 300 AC is nowhere near as diverse as 21st century America, of course... but with that being said, I do have some 'characters of color' who will have somewhat larger roles in WINDS OF WINTER. Admittedly, these are secondary and tertiary characters, though not without importance.

We also got a couple mentions of Westerosi characters that will come back at some point in the book:

>Q: Will we see Willas Tyrell?

>A: Yes. (now we can all speculate how)

>I created Bronn, so it would be immodest of me to say he’s a terrific character… but what the hell, he’s a terrific character, and my readers will definitely be seeing more of him in the books to come.

>[Willl Hot Pie, Gendry, Nymeria, Rickon and Shaggy be seen again or mentioned in A Dance with Dragons, or later in the series?]

>Later in the series? Yes, to all of them.

Now let’s extrapolate the story by judging where point A goes into Point, particularly in characters from the east and north getting home from what I believe is their logical endpoint. This is again, ribald speculation but I think it’s fair.

I’m not going to reveal why I think so since this is long enough but here they are:

  1. Arya: Braavos —> Riverun
  2. Tyrion: Meereen —> Casterly Rock
  3. Daenerys: Dothraki Sea —> Dragonstone
  4. Sansa: Gates of the Moon —> Winterfell
  5. Bran: Cave of the Three Eyed Crow —> Greywater Watch
  6. Jon: Castle Black —> Winterfell

Combined with the whereabouts of certain characters, the following hypothetical transit points are such:

  • Eastwatch By-The Sea
  • The Nightfort
  • Hardhome
  • Lands of Always Winter
  • Skagos
  • Winterfell
  • Torrhen’s Square
  • The Dreadfort
  • Greywater Watch
  • The Twins
  • Riverun
  • Inn At The Crossroads
  • Inn Of The Kneeling Man
  • Quiet Isle
  • Casterly Rock
  • Gulltown
  • King’s Landing
  • Dragonstone
  • Oldtown 
  • Highgarden
  • Horn Hill
  • Plankytown 
  • Hellholt
  • Starfall
  • High Hermitage
  • The Stepstones
  • Braavos
  • Pentos
  • Lys
  • Volantis
  • Mantarys
  • Yunkai
  • Meereen 
  • Basilisk Isles
  • Vaes Dothrak 
  • Qarth

Of course some locations will be explored further than others which brings me to…

Tyrion

As of 2023, Tyrion Lannister is the sole confirmed POV that is for sure complete as GRRM said here:

>“There’s a lot of Tyrion in this book. And I think I’m close to finishing the Tyrion arc in Winds of Winter. I think this chapter and maybe one further chapter; and I won’t be done with the book, but I’ll be done with Tyrion’s role in this particular book. And then I’ll have to focus on another character, some of whom are also close, some of whom are not at all close. And then hopefully it all fits together.”

He even lost a chapter (The Shrouded Lord?) through editing as told here:

>“I wrote a Tyrion chapter I just loved,” he recalls. “Then I looked at it and said: ‘I can’t do this, it will change the whole book. I’ll make this into a series of dreams. No! That doesn’t work either …'”

Ironically he may be one of the few POVs whose path is relatively straight forward. 

It’s heavily implied in the text that Tyrion will ride a dragon and GRRM might have accidentally confirmed it in a comment:

>Well, I made my appearance on Sheep Island a few hours ago, cleverly disguised as Tyrion the Imp for a reading and Q&A session at Bantam’s virtual bookstore. Only this version of Tyrion could fly! Ah, if only the Tyrion in the books could fly, what mischief he will… ah… could… ah, never mind.

Since Skahaz ko Kandaq and Penny have been confirmed to appear in THE WINDS OF WINTER, I suspect Tyrion will take charge of Meereen and if certain implications are true, Penny will die tragically, killing what was left of Tyrion’s humanity.

We also have confirmation that Tyrion will read the books Ser Jorah gave Dany, something I think might be more important than it first appears if this is how we learn about Dragonlore:

>Martin is good at keeping secrets, but he does offer up one tidbit—a reminder that the royal Daenerys Targaryen was given the histories of her world as a wedding gift but neglected to read them. “But you know who does know a lot of that?” he says coyly. “Tyrion.”

We also know that we will discover where whores go in this book, meaning Tyrion and Tysha will reunite, possibly in Braavos if the Sailor’s Wife is her.

As for Tyrion’s return to Westeros, it may have been implied that Jaime will face a Dragon and that Tyrion’s reunion with him won’t be happy:

>[In Suvudu Cage Match] Jaime Lannister has defeated Cthulhu! Next round he has to face a dragon, though. Naomi Novik's Temeraire. Oh, well. Should be good training for when Dany invades Westeros. 

>

>

Plus GRRM gave this interesting line when discussing Casterly Rock:

>But Casterly Rock is a mountain, and its chambers and halls are buried deep inside, under tons of solid stone.   No curtain wall in Westeros, however thick, can even come close.

>What does this all mean?

>Maybe nothing.   I just wanted to set the record straight.   Give you all something to think about.

>(And maybe put an end to all these pictures of a little rock with a castle on top).

>Casterly Rock will not remain forever offstage, I hope.   I have two more novels to go, and my plan is to have one or more of my viewpoint characters visit the Rock in THE WINDS OF WINTER or A DREAM OF SPRING, so I can show you all the wonders and terrors and treasures of House Lannister first hand.   Meanwhile, feel free to ponder… could Casterly Rock stand against dragons?

Arya

Along with the Mercy sample chapter, Arya is also confirmed to have multiple finished chapters with George R.R. Martin revealing that Arya’s POV is like a YA novel:

>George mentioned the coming of age of Arya in Braavos in the context of how a writer had to discipline himself to write only as many chapters as were necessary to serve the story, saying that what Arya was dealing with in Braavos could make a worthy young adult novel in it’s own right.

>Arya is a lot of fun to write about. I could write a whole novel about Arya in Braavos.

>I’ve been following Arya over in the city of Braavos and that’s a setting that I’ve become really interested in. It’s a different dynamic because it’s more like Venice, or Genoa in their height. There’s a different aspect on history because it’s more interested in traders and merchants rather than kings and princes. It could be a great background for a novel.

To do some math that is between 50,000-80,000 words or roughly 220-350 pages.

It has been confirmed by several sources that a good portion of Arya’s chapters are set in Braavos:

>I got chapters of 'Winds of Winter', which was very nice. Now just to give you an idea, this is 2012. There were finished chapters of 'Winds of Winter' in 2012. I'm not going to say any more. So actual parts of the Braavos map are directly involved with 'Winds of Winters'".

>In fact, Roberts said that the map of Braavos in TLOIAF was accurate to the point that one should be able to trace Arya's routes precisely – "right down to the individual bridges she passes under". He also said on reddit that this map "has the most specifically new material in it".

>

>

>

>

It is also said that Arya will have her period in TWOW. She will also reunite with Gendry:

>My friend asked him about Gendry and Arya meeting back up and when will Arya get her moonblood to which GRRM answered “soon”… and GRRM had an interesting response to Arya and Gendry meeting back up. I will let her tell you the answer. But I do know he said of Arya and Gendry that, “I’ll visit them again.”

Nymeria’s Wolfpack has also been confirmed to be a Chekhov’s Gun waiting to go off, which will probably be seen through Warging:

>"You know, I don't like to give things away." says Martin, a grin spreading across his face. "But you don't hang a giant wolf pack on the wall unless you intend to use it."

The most recent Arya chapter mentioned is implied to be set in Westeros:

>Mostly, it’s just me in Westeros, with occasional side trips to other places in the pages of a great book.

>Now you will have to excuse me.   Arya is calling.   I think she means to kill someone.

And if cut content found in the Cushing Library is to be believed, Arya may be the one to put Lady Stoneheart out of her misery:

>It's not true, Arys told herself as she ran out a back door. It couldn't be true.

>Behind the sept an archery butt had been set up, and Anguy was giving Gendry a lesson in the longbow. They took one look at her and lowered their bows. "What's wrong?" asked Genry.

>"It's just a lie!" Arya told him angrily, almost shouting. "She never would. If she did I'll kill her too."

Cersei

Before moving on to Jaime and Cersei, GRRM finished some Cersei chapters:

>WINDS, you say?   Yes, still working.   Finally finished a clutch of Cersei chapters that were giving me fits.   Now I am wrestling with Jaime and Brienne.   The work proceeds, though not as fast as many of you would like.

Cersei is another character who we know a surprising lot about at least plot wise. First off, not only will Alayaya and Chataya return but GRRM confirmed that Tywin’s tunnel to the brothel and relationship with Shae will be addressed:

>GRRM: I won't comment on the Tyrion / Tywin issue. Perhaps future volumes will throw more light on it. 

>As to precisely what happened here, that's something I don't really want to talk about because there's still aspects of it I haven't revealed that will be revealed in later books.

Also, Tywin might have a bastard:

>[Were there any bastards of Tywin Lannister?]

>He'd have you flogged for the mere suggestion.

As the Mercy and Arianne II confirmed, Cersei and Margaery won their trials:

>“Longer than you’d like,” the old man replied. “If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head. 

>“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.”

>Daemon Sand stepped up beside her. “Shipbreaker Bay can be perilous even on a fair summer’s day. The safer way to Storm’s End is overland.”

>“These rains have turned the roads to mud. The journey would take two days, perhaps three,” said Halden Halfmaester. A ship will have the princess there in half a day or less. There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.”

>Will we? Wondered Arianne. “Battle? Or siege?” She did not intend to let herself be trapped inside Storm’s End.

>“Battle,” Halden said firmly. “Prince Aegon means to smash his enemies in the field.”

We also have confirmation from George, that Varys will fuck around in King’s Landing:

>With the Tyrells away (@ Storm's End), the mouse {er, the Spider} will play

Jalabhar Xho will come back too, implying that we will see what Qyburn has been up to in the Black Cells.

Bronn shall return as well, probably to screw up any chance of Cersei escaping or winning the upcoming siege of King’s Landing.

Yet there is one more factor to discuss and that is the Valonqar Prophecy which goes as this:

>And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you."

Tommen and Myrcella are dead kids walking and I think I know how. GRRM has confirmed that the Sandsnakes shall appear a lot (the real, cool sandsnakes not the fake show sandsnakes) who we have established are bloodthirsty and want vengeance. While the exact method is unknowable as of now, we can be certain this will drive Cersei to further madness:

>The old woman was not done with her, however. "Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds," she said

>You want to know what the Sand Snakes, Prince Doran, Areo Hotah, Ellaria Sand, Darkstar, and the rest will be up to in WINDS OF WINTER? Quite a lot, actually. 

Now the question is who will take out Cersei? Cersei thinks it’s Tyrion but like Macbeth could it instead be Jaime to stop her from doing something horrible as his grief and rage at her betrayal causes him to snap.

30%

Now let’s get to the elephant in the room. What exactly remains of TWOW that isn’t finished?

GRRM has long said weaving all the threads together was the hard part but recently, he gave a different explanation as to why he’s having trouble getting to the finishing line, implying that he has a ton of events he either added at the last minute or a bunch of epic events he has had trouble writing:

How much further does he have to go? Martin is vague. “If I wound up doing everything in my head, this could be the longest book in the series.”

Now while him talking about certain characters or locations is a good sign that he is writing or has written about them, it does not necessarily mean that he isn’t working on some since he’s been so mum compared to his work on ADWD.

However my thesis is twofold. First in response to the show sucking dick, he has expanded the role of book only characters like Arianne Martell, Areo Hotah, Aeron Greyjoy, Jon Connington, and Victarion Greyjoy but other popular characters are given him difficulty due to how dark or magic involved their chapters are. These characters include Bran Stark, Samwell Tarly, Daenerys Targaryen, Jon Snow, Jaime Lannister, Brienne of Tarth, Melisandre of Asshai, and Davos Seaworth, as they are the ones we have heard comparatively little about.

Brandon Stark in particular is probably the least finished due to how hard he is to write though it appears that fragments involving Bloodraven are written.

>And then when George was at my table a little later, he told me that he was working on more stories that included Bloodraven in them. I was first excited for the possibility of She-wolves of Winterfell in the D&E stories, but then I was like duh, it's probably Winds.

Remember the 43 complete chapter figure I gave earlier? It’s the best possible maximum I can infer but here’s the thing. It doesn’t count for the half complete or fragmentary chapters George has written/rewritten. George R.R. Martin described his writing process as such.

Yet if we take George's current claim of WINDS being 70% complete seriously, and do the math by his own estimated number of manuscript pages at 1800, then the total number of completed pages of TWOW before George cut and trimmed it through editing and revising was approximately 1260 pages. But if we take the current number of claimed pages at around 1100 then that would mean the current complete chapter count is around 66% of the novel.

Now before you despair keep in mind these are manuscript pages which are larger than the actual printed novel. Let’s assume that the total chapter count of the intended finished book is either a minimum of 82 chapters like ASOS or using the fake leak as an example of the possible maximum of 88, that is 57.4 chapters or 61.6 chapters.

But then that leads to an important question of how the hell does WINDS fit into WINDS? That’s actually not a problem if it’s a hardcover or softcover because then it is about 900-1200 pages without an appendix, maps, or illustrations.

When into mass market paperbacks is where it gets tricky. You see, there’s only so many words you can put per page in one of those. The standard font size is double space and around 250 words per page. That is about 1667 pages without the aforementioned additions that are included in a fantasy novel. According to George the standard limit for a mass market paperback is 1700.

So let’s assume the appendix not only includes all total appendixes in the series which is around 27 pages but also adds the Dayne Family Tree as mentioned by Elio, meaning a total of 29 pages worth of appendixes. Tight but doable yet this doesn’t account for the total of maps which is a total of 7 in the series but let’s add two more for Central Essos and Oldtown. All of that equals 1705 which is just over the limit.

However if the font is instead a smaller size that’s around 1500 total pages, which gives enough room to spare.

Or George could overextend himself again and 200 pages of TWOW is moved into ADOS.

You Make the call!

reddit.com
u/madhipsteraj — 3 months ago
▲ 59 r/asoiaf

(Spoilers Extended) "Keep It Secret. Keep It Safe." What All The Samples Reveal And The Potential Spoilers They Hide Part I: The Four Battles

Background

As of the year of our lord 2026, 11 sample chapters have been read or released of THE WINDS OF WINTER or approximately 153 pages out of a current 1100 finished by GRRM. Some of these are more well regard than others while others are more maligned for seemingly refusing to advance the plot. I have a thesis that all these chapters are important because everything in WINDS is connected and that GRRM stopped releasing and reading samples because even the seemingly minor ones reveal too much.

Lets nip this in the bud because I know there is going an irritating amount of people on this subreddit saying the exact same thing over and over again: WINDS is coming out whether GRRM kicks the bucket or not, the actual question everyone should be asking is whether WINDS will be finished or not. I cannot answer this question nor will I even bother trying. Lets instead have some fun and speculate a little in a discussion of what these samples reveal, regardless of whether they have been revised or changed as GRRM has confirmed and see whether it confirms popular fan theories or point to others yet unknown.

Battle of Ice

The first of two climatic battles involving the Battle of Winterfell or Battle of Ice as is colloqually called by the fandom. It involves a cliffhanger posed by the final Jon Snow chapter where Ramsay Snow sends a letter that leads Jon to his assasination by traditionalists:

>Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

>Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

>I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

>I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

If we believe Ramsay, the mannis was defeated and killed in the battle for the heart of the north. Except GRRM has confirmed Stannis will burn Shireen in WINDS so he needs to live long enough to do that, meaning Ramsay either lied or has incomplete information.

Furthermore, the Theon sample chapter reveals that Stannis has saw through the planned betrayal of Arnolf Karstark thanks to Jon sending him a letter just in the nick of time. The Iron Bank has also open a line of credit, and if Stannis himself is to believed, he is almost certain of victory.

>"Your Grace," a second voice said softly. "Pardon, but your ink has frozen." The Braavosi, Theon knew. What was his name? Tycho... Tycho something... "Perhaps a bit of heat... ?"

>"I know a quicker way." Stannis drew his dagger. For an instant Theon thought that he meant to stab the banker. You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord, he might have told him. The king laid the blade of the knife against the ball of his left thumb, and slashed. "There. I will sign in mine own blood. That ought to make your masters happy."

>"Your Grace." Arnolf Karstark bowed his head. "An honor." He looked for a seat. Instead his eyes found Theon. "And who is this?" Recognition came a heartbeat later. Lord Arnolf paled.

>"The ground?" said Theon. "What ground? Here? This misbegotten tower? This wretched little village? You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses."

>"Yet."

We also have seeds for future plot points with Jon Snow and Arya Stark on The Wall and Braavos with Ser Justin Massey being sent by Stannis to hire sellswords and return Jeyne Poole to Jon Snow out of kindness and gratitude. However Jeyne could miss Jon before his reserrection or she could encounter Jon who doesn't remember her due to being in Ghost for too long.

Here's a quick reminder of all the loose threads currently in play at The Wall to build upon.

  1. The Weeper is ready at the Bridge of Skulls to try and force his way in, with the five remaining rangers either captured or dead.
  2. Ser Glendon Hewett, a crony of Ser Alliser Thorne has Eastwatch-By-The-Sea under his control with 200 giants and 80 mammoths about to join him.
  3. There are three corpses in the Ice Cells ready to revive at the worse possible moment.
  4. Cotter Pyke and Mother Mole are currently facing horrible deaths at Hardhome due to an attack by the Others.
  5. Bowen Marsh and the Traditionalists has staged a coup at Castle Black at the worse possible time, surrounded by angry wildings, loyalists, and queensmen who are either sworn to Jon or rely on his patronage.
  6. Ghost and Borroq's Boar are currently in the Kennels about to be very pissed.
  7. Cregan Karstark is slowly freezing to death in the Ice Cells, with a new regime ready to release him or a vengeful Jon ready to behead him after he is revived.
  8. Bowen has the Wildling's children as hostages, meaning that they cannot avenge Jon.
  9. Val is currently in a tower, possibly claimed by Jon.
  10. Ramsay is currently on his way to sack Castle Black.

As for Arya, Ser Justin going to Braavos gives her the means to return to Westeros and Jeyne Poole pretending to be Arya is just too perfect a moment to miss. It would be even more symbolic if done during the Unmasking of Uthero.

Let's get back to the Battle of Ice for a moment. First off, Aenys Frey, the brains of the operation is dead, leaving his cousin Ser Hosteen Frey to lead their forces. However, he is considered too stupid to be a threat but I honestly wonder if GRRM is playing with expectations on this one:

>Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now."

>Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."

In the Asha Fragment, Crowfood is dead in the manner one of Stannis's knights proposed, pissing off the Northerners:

>The Giantslayer disagreed. "You would make His Grace look weak. I say, show our strength. Burn Last Hearth to the ground and ride to war with Crowfood's head mounted on a spear, as a lesson to the next lord who presumes to offer half his homage."

>"A fine plan if what you want is every hand in the north raised against you. Half is more than none. The Umbers have no love for the Boltons. If Whoresbane has joined the Bastard, it can only be because the Lannisters hold the Greatjon captive."

Lets recall that Whoresbane probably will be pretty pissed when he hears this, stoking mutiny in Winterfell.

Another potential future plot point in WINDS concerns the fate of Theon Greyjoy. Tristifer Botley told her the tale of Torgon the Latecomer, giving her a potential ace in the hole to overturn the Kingsmoot, IF he lives:

>Would that I could do the same. It would be sweet to lose herself in Qarl's arms one last time. Asha had a bad feeling in her belly. Would she ever feel Black Wind's deck beneath her feet again? And if she did, where would she sail her? The isles are closed to me, unless I mean to bend my knees and spread my legs and suffer Eric Ironmaker's embraces, and no port in Westeros is like to welcome the kraken's daughter. She could turn merchanter, as Tris seemed to want, or else make for the Stepstones and join the pirates there. Or …

>"I send you each a piece of prince," she muttered.

>Qarl grinned. "I would sooner have a piece of you," he whispered, "the sweet piece that's—"

Theon wants to die but I doubt he will get it. Theon the Latecomer as a theory has one big flaw, in that Theon is unlikely to become King at least in Winds due to his grevious injuries. I won't get into who I think will rule the Iron Islands but the precedent is still enough to rerun the Kingsmoot. assuming Theon makes it out alive. There are two commonly theorized ways Theon escapes.

A. Bran intervenes magically

B. Stannis fakes his death.

As to how the battle will unfold, I think the Nightlamp and Stannis Wrote A Letter theories are how they are going to go down, maybe with minor details changing or different. I will link them because I don't have the space to put them here.

I will save the magic in this chapter for the eponymous section because it leads to a point I want to make about these samples I want to make.

Battle of Fire

This is the battle GRRM has released the most information on with a grand total of at least five chapters being released or read at conventions. These may seem like a massive waste of time but they actually hint at several popular theories for the Essosi plot line. But first, lets give the gamut of POVs

  1. Ser Barristan
  2. Victarion
  3. Tyrion

Three whole POVs have been devoted to this battle with potentially 1-2 chapters left, if Tyrion or Ser Barristan have another chapter. But to make a long, unfinished story shorter...

The horselords had come as well. Aggo and Rakharo had taken most of the queen’s small khalasar across the Skahazadhan, but the old half-crippled jaqqa rhan Rommo had scraped together twenty riders from those left behind. Some were as old as he was, many marked by some old wound or deformity. The rest were beardless boys, striplings seeking their first bell and the right to braid their hair.  

We see the Pit Fighters show up and Ser Barristan doesn’t view them with the requisite suspicion but if Ser Barristan II is correct, at least some of them are genuine supporters of Dany.

>Not far from them, about the ghastly monument the Great Masters called the Spire of Skulls, several hundred pit fighters had gathered. Selmy saw the Spotted Cat amongst them. Beside him stood Fearless Ithoke, and elsewhere Senerra She-Snake, Camarron of the Count, the Brindled Butcher, Togosh, Marrigo, Orlos the Catamite. Even Goghor the Giant was there, towering above the others like a man amongst boys. Freedom means something to them after all, it would seem. The pit fighters had more love for Hizdahr than they had ever shown Daenerys, but Selmy was glad to have them all the same. Some are even wearing armor, he observed. Perhaps his defeat of Khrazz had taught them something. 

Barristan then makes a critical strategic error: He leaves the most radical and bloodthirsty of Daenerys followers in charge of guarding the city, led by a man who supports a outright purge in what is sure to be GRRM’s critique of revolutionaries.

>Above, the gatehouse battlements were crowded with men in patchwork cloaks and brazen masks: the Shavepate had sent his Brazen Beasts onto the city walls, to free up the Unsullied to take the field. Should the battle be lost, it would be up to Skahaz and his men to hold Meereen against the Yunkai’i … until such time as Queen Daenerys could return. 

We are given a bird’s eye view of the battle plans and locations of the Slaver Alliance.

>Across the city at other gates others forces had assembled. Tal Toraq and his Stalwart Shields had gathered by the eastern gate, sometimes called the hill gate or the Khyzai gate, since travelers bound for Lhazar via the Khyzai Pass always left that way. Marselen and the Mother’s Men had massed beside the south gate, the Yellow Gate. The Free Brothers and Symon Stripeback had drawn the north gate, fronting on the river. They would have the easiest egress, with no foe before them but a few ships. The Yunkishmen had placed two Ghiscari legions to the north, but they were camped across the Skahazadhan, with the whole width of the river between them and the walls of Meereen. 

Ser Barristan doesn’t like their chances but as shown in Tyrion II, it worked.

>This is what it has come to, my queen, Ser Barristan thought. Our fates hinge upon a sellsword’s greed. Your city, your people, our lives … the Tattered Prince holds us all in his bloodstained hands

Here is where medieval understanding of science hampers Ser Barristan’s strategem: He believes that the Yunkai’i flinging infected corpses into Meereen will spread the Pale Mare which while not exactly helping matters, isn’t how germs work. However, being in the Great Pyramid, he is unaware that the Pale Mare is already in the city as seen in Quentyn Martell’s penultimate chapter.

>Even if their best hope proved to be forlorn hope, Selmy knew that he had no other choice. He might have held Meereen for years against the Yunkai’i, but he could not hold it for even a moon’s turn with the pale mare galloping through its streets. 

Ser Barristan then gives the battle plan: It’s not a bad plan but doesn’t factor in the Ironmen or the Dragons, though the latter was discussed in The Queen’s Hand, the third to last chapter of ADWD.

>“You know our plan of attack,” the white knight said, when the captains were gathered around him. “We will hit them first with our horse, as soon as the gate is opened. Ride hard and fast, straight at the slave soldiers. When the legions form up, sweep around them. Take them from behind or from the flank, but do not try their spears. Remember your objectives.”

“The trebuchet,” said the Widower. “The one the Yunkai’i call Harridan. Take it, topple it, or burn it.”

Jokin nodded. “Feather as many of their nobles as we can. And burn their tents, the big ones, the pavilions.”

“Kill many man,” said Rommo. “Take no slaves.”

Ser Barristan turned in the saddle. “Cat, Goghor, Camarron, your men will follow afoot. You are known as fearsome fighters. Frighten them. Scream and shout. By the time you reach the Yunkish lines, our horsemen should have broken through. Follow them into the breach, and do as much slaughter as you can. Where you can, spare the slaves and cut down their masters, the noblemen and officers. Fall back before you are surrounded.”

Goghor smashed a fist against his chest. “Goghor not fall back. Never.”

Then Goghor die, the old knight thought, soon.

>

Victarion’s chapter while short due to being a fragment contains a rare smart moment from the Iron Captain as his cunning plan is actually pretty sound.

>“The slavers may shiver when they spy your sails rising from the sea,” he told him. “but once they see you plain they will laugh at their fears. Traders and fishers, that’s all you are. Any man can see that. Let them get close as they like, but keep your men hidden belowdecks until you are ready. Then close, and board them. Free the slaves and feed the slavers to the sea, but take the ships. We will have need of every hull to carry us back home.” 

As you can see, Victarion is giving this much more thought than usual. Send in Trojan Vessels to ambush the enemy fleet, free the Galley Slaves so that Victarion will be seen as liberator and potentially secure the Volantene Fleet without, give him enough ships to not only transfer Dany’s army and Dragons home but fight Euron.

Unfortunately, Victarion’s other plan won’t work. Not only is it likely that Euron is watching him through the Dusky Woman (The Iron Captain chapter all but confirms it with Moqqoro basically spelling it out for him unaware Victarion is severely dyslexic) 

>"I have seen you in the nightfires, Victarion Greyjoy. You come striding through the flames stern and fierce, your great axe dripping blood, blind to the tentacles that grasp you at wrist and neck and ankle, the black strings that make you dance." 

But its clear that the horn isn’t bound to Victarion and even if Moqqoro (the one thing that can thwart Euron’s plan) can ameliorate that fact, it is clear that it won’t work.

Now it’s all but spelled out in this ominous line that Victarion’s demise is certain.

>The black priest bowed his head. "There is no need. The Lord of Light has shown me your worth, lord Captain. Every night in my fires I glimpse the glory that awaits you."

>Those words pleased Victarion Greyjoy mightily, as he told the dusky woman that night.

 However GRRM accidentally confirmed that he will get at least one or two more chapters. This honestly tracks as GRRM has admitted he loves writing Victarion but it gives Ser Barristan even less of a chance of surviving the Battle of Fire.

Finally there is Tyrion Lannister and we get a few interesting things about this chapter. For one, Tyrion’s suicidal inclinations have gone away even if his self hatred hasn’t.

>What a fraud you are, Imp. You let a hundred guardsmen rape your wife, shot your father through the belly with a quarrel, twisted a golden chain around your lover’s throat until her face turned black, yet somehow you still think that you deserve to live. 

Furthermore, while Penny has been Tyrion’s one connection to humanity last book but during this chapter, he thinks of killing her in a black rage. However it could also hint that Penny is a dead lady walking if the last Tyrion chapter is proof.

>Tyrion wrenched away from her. “I’m frightened.” Those were the same words Shae had used. Her eyes were big as eggs, and I swallowed every bit of it. I knew what she was. I told Bronn to find a woman for me and he brought me Shae. His hands curled into fists, and Shae’s face swam before him, grinning. Then the chain was tightening about her throat, the golden hands digging deep into her flesh as her own hands fluttered against his face with all the force of butterflies. If he’d had a chain to hand… if he’d had a crossbow, a dagger, anything, he would have… he might have… he… 

>"I'm sad." She yawned again. "And tired. So tired."

>Tired or sick? Tyrion knelt beside her pallet. "You look pale." He felt her brow. Is it hot in here, or does she have a touch of fever? He dared not ask that question aloud. Even hard men like the Second Sons were terrified of mounting the pale mare. If they thought Penny was sick, they would drive her off without a moment's hesitation. They might even return us to Yezzan's heirs, notes or no notes. "I have signed their book. The old way, in blood. I am now a Second Son."

We then see the Dragons. Viserion goes back to Meereen but Rhaegal circles the bay where Victarion is about to sound the horn. Interestingly, there’s also a piece of symbolism regarding a white Cyvasse piece that Tyrion picks up shaped like a Dragon.

>The green beast was circling above the bay, banking and turning as longships and galleys clashed and burned below him, but it was the white dragon the sellswords were gawking at. Three hundred yards away the Wicked Sister swung her arm, chunk-THUMP, and six fresh corpses went dancing through the sky. Up they rose, and up, and up. Then two burst into flame.

>

The dragon caught one burning body just as it began to fall, crunching it between his jaws as pale fires ran across his teeth. White wings cracked against the morning air, and the beast began to climb again. The second corpse caromed off an outstretched claw and plunged straight down, to land amongst some Yunkish horsemen. Some of them caught fire too. One horse reared up and threw his rider. The others ran, trying to outrace the flames and fanning them instead. Tyrion Lannister could almost taste the panic as it rippled out across the camps.

Also we get a few updates on how the Battle of Fire going. The Wise Masters are dropping like fruit flies, one of the trebuchets is down, the Long Lances were destroyed, the Windblown has gone over to Dany, and The Second Sons are turning their cloaks again.

>“The ships are landing men,” screamed the Yunkish lordling. “They’ve blocked the mouth of the Skahazadhan with a fireship, and every moment you stand here talking another hundred swords come splashing through the shallows. Assemble your men and drive them back into the sea! At once! Gorzhak commands it!” 

>“The girl’s. Ser Grandfather is making for the Harridan, but she’s afraid he’ll turn toward Wicked Sister next. The Ghost is already down. Marselen’s freedmen broke the Long Lances like a rotten stick and dragged it over with chains. The girl figures Selmy means to bring down all the trebuchets.” 

>“Gorzhak zo Eraz lies slain, cut down by Pentoshi treachery. The turncloak who names himself the Prince of Tatters shall die screaming for this infamy, the noble Morghar swears.” Brown Ben scratched at his beard. “The Windblown have gone over, have they?” he said, in a tone of mild interest. 

>“We have always been the queen’s men,” announced Brown Ben Plumm. “Rejoining the Yunkai’i was just a plot.” 

>The white cyvasse dragon ended up at Tyrion’s feet. He scooped it off the carpet and wiped it on his sleeve, but some of the Yunkish blood had collected in the fine grooves of the carving, so the pale wood seemed veined with red. 

Before we start theorizing let’s examine what GRRM has confirmed about which characters shall appear in the Essosi portion of the story, naming a ton.

> I have legions of secondary characters, not POVs but nonetheless important to the plot, who also figure in the story: Lady Stoneheart, Young Griff,  the Tattered Prince, Penny, Brown Ben Plumm, the Shavepate, Marwyn the Mage, Darkstar, Jeyne Westerling.  Some characters you saw in the show are quite different than the versions in the novels.   Yarra Greyjoy is not Asha Greyjoy, and HBO’s Euron Greyjoy is way, way, way, way different from mine.   Quaithe still has a part to play.  So does Rickon Stark.   And poor Jeyne Poole.   And… well, the list is long. (And all this is part of why WINDS is taking so long.   This is hard, guys). 

Lets also do a laymen’s summary of the current plotlines and combine them with theories and confirmed info for the book.

  1. GRRM has confirmed we will find out where whores go this book. Personally I think this means Tyrion will visit Braavos and meet Tysha again where he will give in to despair after his expectations of her are dashed.
  2. It is noted that Tyrion and Daenerys will intersect. Not join the other, intersect. Could this mean Tyrion will meet Dany briefly while one goes by the Demon Road, the other by sea?
  3. Volantis will burn at some point as predicted by Bennero. Dany will probably be responsible as one of many crimes inspired by religious fervor and liberation.
  4. The Khalasar the Yunkai'i hired is almost certainly Khal Jhaqo's. They will take a detour to Vaes Dothrak where Dany will be proclaimed TSWMTW and unite the Khalasars, giving Dany a way to conquer the other Free Cities offscreen.
  5. Who is the Harpy? My bet is The Green Grace as it immediately makes her more interesting and goes along with GRRM's critique of cultural imperialism and western savorism.
  6. GRRM has mentioned Tyrion will read the books Ser Jorah gave him. I believe that one of them is Septon Barth's Unnatural History? How? Well Medieval authors often recycled parchment within different manuscripts and these are known as palimpests.
  7. As for Arya's plotline in Braavos regarding the Faceless men, given that George seemingly confirmed that the Faceless Men will clash with Daenerys at some point, I think its fair to say that whatever their ultimate plans are can't be good. In the meantime I expect a vivid exploration of Braavosi society and culture considering that George has apparently written a novella's worth of POVs in Braavos.
  8. Now we get to the fires drifting from the east into the west. Tales of Dany's debauchery and cruelty have already spread in Essos. Now assuming Dany goes fire and blood on the slavers and excepts Rhllor as her god, by the time fAegon takes the throne, Dany's main supporters will be a foreign horde of demon worshippers and barbarians to the Westerosi. Add Arianne's biases and Jon Connington's madness, then the 2nd Dance of the Dragons as said by GRRM seems inevitable.
  9. The Pale Mare is recuring problem in ADWD with no known solution. Well Tyrion might have one as it is mentioned that he fixed the sewage at Casterly Rock. If the Pale Mare is the same as dysentery, than the poor irrigation standard can't possibly help. I think Tyrion will pull a Agrippa and clean up the city. That's right, PJ was correct on something.
  10. One of the fans who won the contest to be killed in TWOW requested to be a Valyrian. When I read I was like WHOAH! The Valyrians are deader than a doornail. What could this mean? GRRM hinted that we may learn more about Valyria but was vague about whether it mean the past or now. Will Victarion grow a pair and try and one up Euron by traversing the Smoking Sea? Will Sam accidentally go in the past and kill one via a Glass Candle? Only the Seven know...

Battle of Steel

As of the second Arianne chapter, we know that the Golden Company has taken Storm's End:

>“Where?” demanded Arianne.

>“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.”

We also got a hint in the last Jon Connington of how exactly they will take the castle:

>"If Storm's End is so impregnable, how do you mean to take it?" asked Malo.

>"By guile."

Now here's where I am going to save a lot of space and link you to BryndenBfishes amazing essay series explaining what will happen next using facts and evidence. I believe at least 90% of that is correct but to give a laymen's summary:

  1. After taking Storm's End by disguising themselves as Sellswords bought by Stannis, JC will put every member of the garrison to the sword before raising the the Three Headed Dragon of House Targaryen to a confused Mathis Rowan. fAegon will then bespeech the lord to turn his cloak in the name of his family and the innocents killed by House Lannister.
  2. Both Cersei and Margaery shall win their trials, Cersei her trial by combat, Margaery her trial by faith. Afterword, Mace Tyrell will march down the Kingsroad to his doom, the knight's of summer being creamed by the Golden Company in a Agincourt style rout.
  3. Arianne has already decided to marry fAegon out of jealousy of her brother despite Jon Connington not wanting her too, she will seduce him and declare for fAegon, despite her father not wanting her to.
  4. Both the High Sparrow and Randyll Tarly have taken fAegon's side despite Cersei being unaware.
  5. After losing her children, Cersei will decide to burn the whole city with Wildfire. When Jon Connington hears the bells, his PTSD will act up and he shall sack the city.

Now here's where I differ from BryndenBFish. The way I see it's a coin toss whether Cersei will die early in the book or abscond to Casterly Rock. I also don't think Jaime is going to die until the near end if that as GRRM as confirmed that multiple POVs will visit Casterly Rock in TWOW, meaning that at least two Lannisters need to live in order to get there. We know with some certainty that Tyrion will survive the book and I personally think his last chapter in the book will there.

We also suspect that Cersei misread the Valonqar prophecy and will be murdered by Jaime, while ADWD hints that Jaime will be killed by Tyrion. We already have gotten vague but ominous confirmation that Jaime and Tyrion will reunite in a not so happy matter and that Jaime may face a dragon as all brave Knight's do but whether that will result in Jaime's demise is unknowable.

Also before I move onto the Battle of Blood, I would like to note that both the two Arianne chapters and Alayne chapters have plenty of potential info regarding future plotpoints in the book but I will save that for the end.

Battle of Blood

Throughout the fifth book, we are given hints by Moqqoro and Melisandre that something really bad is about to happen somewhere.

>"That Daenerys stands in peril. The dark eye has fallen upon her, and the minions of night are plotting her destruction, praying to their false gods in temples of deceit … conspiring at betrayal with godless outlanders …"

>The hairs on the back of Tyrion's neck began to prickle. Prince Aegon will find no friend here. The red priest spoke of ancient prophecy, a prophecy that foretold the coming of a hero to deliver the world from darkness. One hero. Not two. Daenerys has dragons, Aegon does not. The dwarf did not need to be a prophet himself to foresee how Benerro and his followers might react to a second Targaryen. Griff will see that too, surely, he thought, surprised to find how much he cared.

>"Only their shadows," Moqorro said. "One most of all. A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

>"Some may." Could the skulls in her vision have signified this bridge? Somehow Melisandre did not think so. "If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall."

This all describes Euron to a tee.

Now I am not going to discuss theories such as Euron being Bloodraven's former student that haven't been confirmed versus theories that have been debunked like the idea that Euron hasn't been to Valyria. But I will give my analysis of The Forsaken, a chapter that me like many other fans believe to be one of the best ASOIAF chapters ever written, and try to postulate where it is going.

Here is how I believe the battle will go down like this:

  • Euron will use blood magic to summon Krakens to give himself the advantage after tricking the Hightower and Redwyne fleet into a trap.

Not only have Krakens been repeatedly mentioned in the story:

>The eunuch drew a parchment from his sleeve. "A kraken has been seen off the Fingers." He giggled. "Not a Greyjoy, mind you, a true kraken. It attacked an Ibbenese whaler and pulled it under. There is fighting on the Stepstones, and a new war between Tyrosh and Lys seems likely. Both hope to win Myr as ally. Sailors back from the Jade Sea report that a three-headed dragon has hatched in Qarth, and is the wonder of that city—"

>"And krakens off the Broken Arm, pulling under crippled galleys," said Valena. "The blood draws them to the surface, our maester claims. There are bodies in the water. A few have washed up on our shores. And that's not half of it. A new pirate king has set up on Torturer's Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large. You were wise not to come by sea. Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker's Bay. Myrmen, Volantenes, Lyseni, even reavers from the Iron Islands. Some have entered the Sea of Dorne to land men on the south shore of Cape Wrath. We found a good fast ship for you, as your father commanded, but even so... be careful."

But Left Hand Lucas Codd gave out this sinister quote:

>“I curse you all,” Aeron said.

>“Your curses have no power here, priest,” said Left-Hand Lucas Codd. “The Crow’s Eye has fed your Drowned God well, and he has grown fat with sacrifice. Words are wind, but blood is power. We have given thousands to the sea, and he has given us victories!”

The chapter also reveals the following;

Euron killed three of his brothers:

>“Not even you would dare,” said the Damphair. “I am your brother. No man is more accursed than the kinslayer.”

>“And yet I wear a crown and you rot in chains. How is it that your Drowned God allows that when I have killed three brothers?”

>Aeron could only gape at him. “Three?”

>“Well, if you count half-brothers. Do you remember little Robin? Wretched creature. Do you remember that big head of his, how soft it was? All he could do was mewl and shit. He was my second. Harlon was my first. All I had to do was pinch his nose shut. The greyscale had turned his mouth to stone so he could not cry out. But his eyes grew frantic as he died. They begged me. When the life went out of them, I went out and pissed into the sea, waiting for the god to strike me down. None did. Oh, and Balon was the third, but you knew that. I could not do the deed myself, but it was my hand that pushed him off the bridge.”

Euron raped Aeron and Urrigon:

>“Still praying, priest? Your god has forsaken you.”

>“You’re wrong.”

>“It was me who taught you how to pray, little brother. Have you forgotten? I would visit your bed chamber at night when I had too much to drink. You shared a room with Urrigon high up in the seatower. I could hear you praying from outside the door. I always wondered: Were you praying that I would choose you or that I would pass you by?” Euron pressed the knife to Aeron’s throat.

Euron intends to sacrifice his unborn child for its kingsblood:

>When they were well out to sea, Euron returned to him. “Brother,” he said, “you look forlorn. I have a gift for you.”

>He beckoned, and two of his bastard sons dragged the woman forward and bound her to the prow on the other side of the figurehead. Naked as the mouthless maiden, her smooth belly just beginning to swell with the child she was carrying, her cheeks red with tears, she did not struggle as the boys tightened her bonds. Her hair hung down in front of her face, but Aeron knew her all the same.

>“Falia Flowers,” he called. “Have courage, girl! All this will be over soon, and we will feast together in the Drowned God’s watery halls.”

>The girl raised up her head, but made no answer. She has no tongue to answer with, the Damphair knew. He licked his lips, and tasted salt.

It is also increasingly likely that Euron molested Theon:

>Under it he wore a stained white leather eye patch that reminded Theon of his uncle Euron. He’d wanted to rip it off Umber’s face, to make certain that underneath was only an empty socket, not a black eye shining with malice.

Finally, there is this line in AFFC that subtle and easily missed but considering what we know about Euron and his magical abilities, it seems that Euron either saw the oncoming apocalypse coming or through seizing what could be the Horn of Winter from Samwell Tarly, intends to directly cause it:

>"I swore to give you Westeros," the Crow's Eye said when the tumult died away, "and here is your first taste. A morsel, nothing more . . . but we shall feast before the fall of night!" 

This has gotten too long. Stay tuned for part 2 where we discuss the politics, magic, and other interesting tidbits inside these chapters!

SOURCES

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1ow2nf6/spoilers_twow_everything_we_know_about_the_winds/

https://thehawke.github.io/twow-excerpts/

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/essays/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3igmpw/spoilers_all_stannis_sent_a_letter/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/26lkak/spoilers_all_the_night_lamp_how_a_king_will_wreck/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/6lqim5/spoilers_extended_a_list_of_questions_to_which/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/8dgsl0/spoilers_extended_keep_reading_analyzing_the_so/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1hfi487/twow_barristan_ii_a_combination_of_fan_summaries/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/elbyde/spoilers_extended_analyzing_the_asha_fragment/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/11k0scw/revisiting_the_victarion_fragment_spoilers/

reddit.com
u/madhipsteraj — 3 months ago