For the past couple of months I've been tracking some recent collector pack EVs for fun and it has been extremely interesting. You can see the google spreadsheet here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PQ2ZdPChfDVMMGZ5bOfIlyRXxzzQvHXstNJVV6R-YtM/edit?usp=sharing Here are some facts that I think are interesting:

• Lorwyn is by far one of the lowest EV collector boxes in the past year. If you open a Lorwyn box, on average you'd lose 50% of your money. In fact, there were times during this period where an EOE play box was in the same realm of EV as a Lorwyn Collector box which is mindblowing. Spider man's EV is 50% higher than Lorwyn.
• Spider man's EV has seen a rise with the recent MSH release. It has increased 15% in the couple months alone. MSH has sparked new interest in collecting comic arts, all versions of the soul stone, hero/villain synergies, etc. If this similar thing happens for every future Marvel set, SPM could be interesting.
• SOS's EV is lower than TMT and still falling. This is probably normal as a set is no longer the newest set, but the fall has been pretty steep. If the same trend in the past month continues it's possible that even SPM EV might be higher than SOS; though I don't think that's likely (probably)
• MSH's EV is great. Even if you assigned $0 to the thanos and cosmic foil mind stone, you'd still currently be around breakeven on a box. It'll be interesting to see where it settles out at. Something to note, the TMT/SPM/MSH EV doesn't include their art cards, which would probably add another dollar in EV. So that'd push MSH even higher

First sale that I’ve seen

Looks like the signatures can be in colors of the color wheel because we’ve seen green, red, black, and blue signatures. I wonder if there’s a white signature lol

From the debut stream: https://youtu.be/WmWNXlZ0sZ0?si=YMdmkhU2hQElSW6s&t=698

Haven't seen this mentioned anywhere but I thought it was interesting. Mood Swings has a headliner card 'Love' with special treatment (in addition to a normal treatment of Love). Art by Maro himself. No idea on drop rate.

Edit: helpful comments have told me that there’s 500 headliners total printed

WOTC for the first time in a long time states explicitly how many “approximately” will be printed. Very interesting, this card is essentially proto serialized. Remains to be seen if the same will happen with The Mind Stone

I was curious about the EV of a SOS collector box so I spent this morning doing a rough calculation.

SOS collector boxes are rare in that almost all the cards have the exact % chance shown (other than rounding). Often, the odds for chase cards are obfuscated with "less than 1%" wording, but that's not true for SOS. The only time SOS obfuscates is for the serialized Emeritus while showing exact odds for all of SOA.

The EV for 1 SOS collector pack is currently $34.60 USD

Some caveats are that I completely ignored: commons, uncommons (other than the mystical archive uncommons), art cards, and basic lands. In total those might add less than a dollar of EV. I also ignored the serialized Emeritus but doing ballpark math that might also come out to .50-1 in EV per pack.

Something really interesting is that of the $34.60 in EV in the pack, $23.20 of that comes from all of the SOA slots. I knew SOA was carrying the value, but it's still shocking that more than 2/3rds of the value is coming from the reprints.

Methodology

I gathered all of the potential cards dropped for each slot and listed them in this google sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PQ2ZdPChfDVMMGZ5bOfIlyRXxzzQvHXstNJVV6R-YtM/edit?usp=sharing

I then created a script that went over that sheet and used the scryfall API to pull the pricing for each card and then did straightforward math with the odds to get to the EV.

Something important to note is that scryfall uses TCGPlayer market as the price. This is currently inflated over the true TCGPlayer low; probably around 10% inflated on average since prices have gone down after release. You can see this inflation by looking through SOA on TCGPlayer and seeing that TCGPlayer low is lower than the market price on most cards. I expect this inflation to moderate in the future as the market price declines closer to the low.

I plan to update for my own records at least once a day, you can follow along on the 2nd sheet in the google sheet if you want. If you see anything wrong in the card list let me know.