u/mpschettig

What is Brady Tkachuk's Trade Value?

Idk how serious it is but I've seen various Brady Tkachuk trade rumors since the Sens got eliminated. Idk how real they are or why he might get moved but if the Senators did look to trade Brady what is his value? Really good player but he's a winger which isn't very highly valued. Pretty slow but and his finishing has fallen off a cliff but he's still an elite two way play driver and has been really good on the PP.

I'm a Sabres fan so I'm kinda trying to figure out what we'd have to give up lol

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u/mpschettig — 2 days ago
▲ 45 r/sabres

Sabres' Prospect Update

The guys at Hockeystats put out a new NHL Draft/Prospect model and I have a subscription over there so I thought I'd share a little Sabres info.

Disclaimer: I don't know how many NHL games someone needs to play to "graduate" from being a prospect. Östlund is still a prospect but Matthew Schaefer isn't so the cutoff has to be somewhere between 68 and 82 games. Maybe it's one full season.

KONSTA HELENIUS: Model loves our boy! He's the 5th most likely star player in the entire NHL (7th if you include McKenna and Stenberg). Took a huge leap this year, as I think we all saw. Jarmo if you are reading this please do not trade this man for Robert Thomas. I really think he'll be our 1C by the end of next season.

NOAH ÖSTLUND: 80% NHLer probability feels low to me since that's defined as 200+ games and he already has 68. Even if he took a step back I think he has show enough that he'd get another 132 games. That being said they still think he's a top 40 prospect in that metric so I can't really complain. They don't see him as a star but honestly I don't either. I think Östlund will be a *really good* middle six forward for a long time.

JIŘÍ KULICH: I'm surprised at how high they are on Kulich tbh. I thought he'd be below Östlund. 35th most likely star in the NHL at 8%, 21st most likely NHL player at 93%. You can see by the card they think he developed very quickly after his draft year. I'm so excited to add this guy to the team we had this season.

RADIM MRTKA: They think Mrtka took a slight step back this season compared to his draft year but still have him as a top 50 prospect (3rd in his draft class and 11th among all defensemen). I'll take that from a 9th overall pick. Excited to see him in Rochester next year.

THE REST: They're not high on the rest of the prospect pool but I think that's fairly reasonable. Especially when our 2023 1st rounder already graduated years ago. I like Whalberg as a potential 4th liner more than them but whatever.

They only have forwards and goalies so no Levi. Also they only have draft years 2022-2026 so no Poltapov. I also would've shared Rosén just to see but he was 2021 as well. I think having 4 top 50 prospects is pretty exciting for a team that just won 50 games and has 21 year old Zach Benson not counting as a prospect anymore.

u/mpschettig — 2 days ago

I Looked At Non-Shooters on NBA Champions. The results may (not) surprise you!

Basically Bill offhandedly mentioned on the last pod that Jalen Duren was being defended differently because teams were leaving Ausar open. This made me think "how many non shooters have won a championship recently?" So I really quickly looked at the last few champions' rosters with the following criteria:

- 35+% 3 point percentage in the regular season

- 20+ mpg in the playoffs

I used regular season shooting because it's a bigger sample size and I'm looking for guys you couldn't leave open. If a 38% shooter has a cold streak in the playoffs you're still probably not gonna leave him wide open. Here is the full list of players from the last 5 champions to meet those criteria:

- Isaiah Hartenstein

- Draymond Green

- Kevon Looney

- Giannis Antetokounmpo

- Brook Lopez

If you lower the minutes requirement DeAndre Jordan sneaks in too.

What do all those guys have in common? They're all bigs. The 2019-20 Lakers were the last team to win a championship with a single perimeter player who couldn't shoot in their rotation (Rondo and Kuzma). And famously Rondo caught fire shooting in the empty gyms in the bubble and went 40% from 3 in those playoffs.

I think this needs to be used to much more harshly judge guys like the Thompson twins. Yes they do a lot of things well, but the recent history of the league tells us that if they can't make themselves average 3 point shooters then you will literally never be able to win a championship with them in your rotation. These are guys who currently rank 37 and 61 in the Ringer 100!

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u/mpschettig — 7 days ago

That was a hysterical choke-off

Both those teams tried to lose so bad. No one was built for it. Harden missed 3 FTs and turned it over. Allen didn't jump for a lob. Meanwhile Cade turns it over in the back court and misses a box out on a missed FT and every role player except Paul Reed was terrified to shoot. Very funny basketball game

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u/mpschettig — 9 days ago

Just so everyone can keep track this is what the framework for this three team trade would look like

Celtics Receive: Giannis and Myles Turner (trade exception)

Hawks Receive: Jaylen Brown and Sam Hauser (trade exception)

Bucks Receive: Jonathan Kuminga, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risascher, their own 2027 pick back, the 7th overall pick in 2026 (assuming ATL doesn't win the lottery), and a couple more Boston picks, probably 2026 or 2027 and then another in 2031 (Boston already traded their 2029 pick and by rule can't trade their 2028 or 2030 picks)

If they're the Hawks are the team paying all the most valuable assets to Milwaukee wouldn't they just pay them for Giannis and get him instead of Jaylen Brown? The three team trade only makes sense in 3 scenarios

  1. Getting out of the Myles Turner contract is so important to Milwaukee that they need Boston's trade exception

  2. Milwaukee values a Boston pick in the 2030s more than an Atlanta pick in the 2030s

  3. Atlanta values keeping a couple extra picks to get Jaylen Brown and Sam Hauser more than they value Giannis

It's worth noting that ATL's own trade exception could get Milwaukee out of the AJ Green deal if Milwaukee is looking to shed long term payroll.

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u/mpschettig — 16 days ago

NBA: Holds it behind closed doors with reps from every team and dozens of media members present.

NBA Fans: ITS RIGGED! LET US SEE THE DRAWING!

NHL: Has the lottery machine on stage for everyone to see and draws the balls on live television.

NHL fans: RIGGED FOR TORONTO!

Guys I'm starting to think that no matter what we do and no matter who wins people will call the draft lottery rigged

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u/mpschettig — 16 days ago
▲ 28 r/asoiaf

And honestly why wasn't she already married? Here's what we know about Lyneese Hightower at the time of the Tourney of Lannisport (try to ignore everything that comes after)

- She's around 17 or 18 years old. Jorah was in his mid 30s and she is said to be half his age.

- She is incredibly beautiful

- Shes the daughter of the Lord of Oldtown, which is arguably the most powerful seat that isn't a Lord Paramount in Westeros.

- Her sister is married to the Lord Paramount of the Reach and her nephew is heir to the Reach.

Given all that information wouldn't Lynesse Hightower be one of the most highly sought after brides in the Seven Kingdoms? At this point Cersei, Catelyn, and Lysa are married already, Margaery is a child, Arianne is 13 and it's unclear if she's had her glow up yet. As far as I'm aware there's no women in the mainline of any of the Lords Paramount who are both single and of marriageable age at the time of the Tournament of Lannisport. It's possible Lynesse is the actual most eligible bachelorette in the realm at this moment in time.

And she is married to the widowed Lord of Bear Island, a small and poor holding at the edge of the world. Jorah provides no benefit to House Hightower. She's a few years older than him but she could be betrothed to Renly, the King's brother and the Lord of Storms End. Or she would be a *perfect* match age wise with Edmure Tully. Her cousin Alekayne Florent is the Heir to Brightwater Keep and is around her age. One of Arwyn Oakheart's sons is probably around Lynesse's age and would be heir to Old Oak and from a family thats descended from House Gardner.

Why do you think Lynesse was allowed to marry for love to a minor Lord from bumfuck nowhere? It's not like Leyton didn't arrange marriages for political reasons before, he did it with Alerie to Mace Tyrell

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u/mpschettig — 23 days ago
▲ 100 r/asoiaf

Ned tells Cersei he knows her kids are incest bastards because he's trying to be merciful and allow her to flee with the children. Obviously because he's traumatized from the situation with the Targaryen children. This is the error that leads to Robert's death and Ned's execution.

Everyone seems to say that this is where Ned fucked up but are we 100% sure that Robert would even believe Ned if he told him about the incest bastards? There's no Maury Povich DNA test in this world. His evidence is that all the previous Baratheons had black hair and his kids have blonde hair. I don't know if King Robert would've understood the science of a Punnett Square on this one.

Robert hates his wife and her family and loves Ned probably more than literally any other human in the world including himself. However Robert is also an incredibly proud man. I don't know if his ego would've allowed him to publicly declare that his wife had been cucking him with her twin brother and that all 3 of his legitimate children weren't his. Shame is a powerful motivator and that would've made Robert a laughing stock across Westeros.

Are we sure that if Ned tells Robert about his kids that Robert doesn't just find some way to crawl into a shell of denial and decide that Ned is just wrong?

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u/mpschettig — 25 days ago