Lucid Diagnostics update 10/5/26 (not the car company)
Some very interesting developments in the last 2 weeks. For those with short attention spans, the TLRD version:
Lucid started submitting Medicare claims in September.
The screening population is expanding.
Supporting information on point #1:
Lucid issued a PR on 9/22, and buried in that PR was an announcement that Lucid now has a lab in Irving, TX, which enables them to submit CMS claims via Novitas. Novitas does not participate in the Moldx program.
This is a fairly well established workaround when Moldx is taking their sweet time, and has been used by companies like Quest for their Haystack test (transcript here). Aspira Women's Health also bills exclusively via Novitas, and they state in their SEC filings that it "essentially provides national coverage."
This means that in Q3/Q4, Lucid will have the ability to actually get paid for CMS tests that are analyzed at the Texas lab. In addition, the VA fiscal year started on Oct 1, so they should finally be able to start recognizing sales under the VA contract announced in January. Add in recently announced Concert/Lyric coverage, and for the first time in their history, Lucid should see substantially growing revenues in Q4 and beyond.
Supporting information on point #2:
AGA posted a new draft guidance for screening for Barrett's esophagus (BE) on 9/28. It aligns perfectly with what Lucid is trying to accomplish, and actually opens the door to screen individuals at intermediate risk, which they define as a Kunzmann score of 6 to <8, with a non-endoscopic cell collection device (ie Esoguard). They also suggest against the use of blood-based multicancer detection tests for screening of BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), confirming what we already knew; that these tests do not have the sensitivity to detect pre-cancer.
By expanding screening to intermediate risk, the size of the screening population increases substantially. ChatGPT puts it at 60-80M, which would move the total addressable market from $60B to $120-160B.
Also supporting expanded screening is the version 2 preprint of this paper on real world Esoguard use. They demonstrate that the odds ratio for Esoguard positivity is only 1.03 for GERD-associated symptoms, while it's 2.37 for age>50. It seems like we are headed towards a world where being a male over age 50 with just 1 other risk factor is sufficient to be screened, and this is precisely what AGA is already suggesting in their draft guidance. For example, if you're a male, age 50 and a former smoker, you have a Kunzmann score of 6 and meet the criteria for intermediate risk. This is quite different from the older ACG guidelines which require GERD plus 3 other risk factors.
To summarize, the market has been hyperfocused on Moldx, but with the lab in Irving and the ability to bill Novitas, the slow decision from Moldx is no longer hampering revenue growth. And if we read the tea leaves, it seems very likely that the size of the opportunity (where Lucid is the only player) will grow in the near future.
If you're new to Lucid, start here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1uvymvv/the_other_lucid_not_motors/
None of this is advice, I'm just collating information that is already out there. Do your own DUE DILIGENCE.