
How many Waymo rides are in California now? Did it level off?
https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCarsLie/comments/1tajs3t/waymo_ca_business_is_flat/
I couldn't find the source, but someone keeps saying that he expects ride to increase by a factor of 10 every 18 to 36 months.
(My forecast for the last year is that Waymo may increase their VMT exponentially although it is likely linear since expanding to new markets is happening linearly. However, VMT or rides in established areas, say Phoenix metro, would level off. Geographic expansion only increases VMT or rides proportional to the area added, roughly.)
I don't think a ten-fold increase is going to happen at that pace unless rides or miles get much cheaper. And I don't think it would, unless there are signs like high-quality lidar being integrated in consumer cars in the next few years or GPUs getting much cheaper.