36M and apparently I may have joined a club I really didn’t want to join.

This started around 1 AM on Oct 1 with absolutely no rash. I suddenly had lower back pain and this really strange hypersensitivity over my right thigh. At first I genuinely thought there was something sharp stuck in my clothes because every time the fabric touched my skin it hurt.

Over the next day or two it became much more obvious that something weird was going on. The skin became extremely sensitive to touch/clothing, almost like a burn, and the pain moved around the right thigh, hip/love-handle area, groin/pubic area and even part of the scrotal area.

I also have a deeper pain in the groin/pelvic/upper inner thigh area. It feels like it’s coming from somewhere deep rather than the skin.

Because of the back pain and distribution, I was actually convinced for a while that this was some kind of lumbar radiculopathy.

Then about 2 days after the pain started, a small cluster of red spots appeared on my upper inner thigh/groin.

At first they honestly didn’t look like much. Just tiny red spots, no obvious blisters, and weirdly the rash itself wasn’t even where I was having the worst pain.

Now I can see that some of the spots in the cluster have developed tiny little vesicles/blisters, literally needle-sized. I’ve also found a few scattered tiny dry spots farther down the same inner thigh.

So… yeah. Shingles is unfortunately starting to make a lot more sense.

I did an online consultation and the doctor thought it could be shingles too, so I started valacyclovir on Oct 3. Thankfully I started it pretty early after the rash appeared, even though the nerve pain had already been there for almost 3 days.

The worst part right now is honestly the nerve pain.

On top of the constant hypersensitivity, I sometimes get these sudden, brutal stabs/pulses of pain in the front/inner thigh. They last only a few seconds, disappear, then come back. At one point it was literally happening about every 30 seconds.

It’s such a bizarre kind of pain. I can be lying there relatively okay and then suddenly get hit with this deep stab/electric pulse.

No fever, no feeling generally sick, no weakness or bowel/bladder issues. I actually feel completely normal apart from the pain and rash.

I currently have Celebrex, Panadol/paracetamol and tizanidine available. I also have Solpadeine if needed. The tizanidine made more sense when I thought this was muscular/back related, but now I’m not sure it’s doing much.

I’m considering asking the doctor for Lyrica/pregabalin or gabapentin if this nerve pain keeps going.

For those of you who have actually been through this:

What genuinely helped the acute nerve pain?

Did regular painkillers like Tylenol/Panadol or NSAIDs actually help you, or did you need Lyrica/gabapentin?

If you took Lyrica or gabapentin, did it make a big difference? How quickly? Was the sedation bad?

Did anyone else have deep back/groin/pelvic/thigh pain that felt like it was coming from somewhere deep inside even though it was apparently nerve pain?

And did anyone get these weird seconds-long stabbing attacks over and over again?

Any non-medication tricks that actually made a difference would also be appreciated. Cold packs? Heat? Certain sleeping positions? Loose clothing? Anything topical?

And probably the question I’m most anxious about: how long did the really bad pain last for you?

The psychological side of this is honestly hitting me almost as hard as the physical pain right now.

I started reading this sub after the diagnosis became more likely, and I keep finding posts from people who are relatively young but had pain for months, developed PHN, had shingles more than once, or had repeated episodes.

I know logically that people who have a rough or prolonged course are probably much more likely to keep posting here than someone who gets shingles, recovers in a couple of weeks and never thinks about it again. But when you’re lying awake in pain at 3 or 4 AM reading story after story about PHN and recurrences, it’s really hard not to start thinking, “Is this my life now?”

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t scared of that.

I’m 36. Until a few days ago shingles wasn’t even remotely on my radar. Now I’m worrying about whether this pain is going to last for months, whether I’m going to develop PHN, whether this will happen again, whether stress somehow caused this, etc.

Part of me also feels guilty because I’ve been under a lot of stress lately and I keep wondering whether I somehow brought this on myself. Rationally I know there may be no identifiable trigger at all, but psychologically it’s difficult not to go there.

So I’d especially appreciate hearing from people who had shingles in their 20s/30s/40s and recovered normally and moved on with their lives. I realize those people may be underrepresented on a shingles subreddit for obvious reasons, but I think hearing those experiences would help right now.

I’m still considering getting one of the fresh vesicles swabbed for VZV PCR just to know for sure, because there’s still a small part of my brain hoping this is lumbar radiculopathy plus some completely unrelated rash. But the appearance of the little blisters is making that explanation harder to hold onto.

Already under medical care and taking the antiviral as prescribed, so I’m not looking for Reddit to diagnose me. Mostly looking for practical advice, experiences and honestly a bit of reassurance from people who’ve been through this.

If you had shingles relatively young: how bad were your first few days, what actually helped the pain, when did you start turning the corner, and how are you doing now?

البوست هذا حطيته في r/valueinvesting لكن ودي اخذ رأيكم

قاعد أبحث في سهم TOYO، وكل ما تعمقت فيه أكثر حسيت إن التقييم الحالي ممكن يكون منخفض بشكل مبالغ فيه.

الأرقام ملفتة:
القيمة السوقية حوالي 200 مليون دولار
مكرر الربحية قرابة 2
السعر إلى القيمة الدفترية قرابة 1
السعر إلى التدفق النقدي الحر قرابة 2.5
قيمة المنشأة إلى الأرباح قبل الفوائد والضرائب والاستهلاك قرابة 1.4
إيرادات النصف الأول 261 مليون دولار، بنمو 88%
صافي الربح 45.8 مليون دولار
التدفق النقدي التشغيلي 61.4 مليون دولار
أكثر من 100 مليون دولار نقد
يعني نتكلم عن شركة مربحة وتولد سيولة، ومع ذلك تقييمها قريب جدًا من قيمتها الدفترية.

سبب النزول مفهوم: مشاكل بعض الشحنات القادمة من إثيوبيا، مراجعات الجمارك الأمريكية ووزارة التجارة، والتعرفة الجديدة على قطاع الطاقة الشمسية.
لكن هنا النقطة اللي أشوفها مثيرة.

الشركة قاعدة توسع تصنيعها داخل أمريكا. عندها خطة للوصول إلى 2 غيغاواط من إنتاج الألواح في تكساس، بالإضافة إلى مصنع خلايا شمسية بطاقة 1.5 غيغاواط واستثمار يقارب 357 مليون دولار.

بمعنى آخر، التعرفة اللي ممكن تضغط على نموذجها الحالي اليوم، ممكن مستقبلًا تصير لصالحها إذا زادت قيمة التصنيع المحلي داخل أمريكا وقلّت منافسة الواردات الرخيصة.

وفيه كذلك حوافز التصنيع الأمريكية 45X، واللي ممكن تكون مؤثرة جدًا إذا اكتملت الطاقة الإنتاجية. والأهم أن أرباح النصف الأول الحالية ليست مبنية أساسًا على هذه الحوافز.

أكبر شيء مقلق بالنسبة لي هو التخفيف على المساهمين وطريقة تمويل توسعة تكساس. إذا قدرت الشركة تمول توسعها بدون إصدار أسهم بشكل مؤذٍ، أشوف التقييم الحالي صعب أتجاهله.

بالنسبة للسعر، منطقة 4.8 دولار تقريبًا هي منطقة القرار بالنسبة لي، لأن حتى لو تراجعت الأرباح عن أرقام النصف الأول، الشركة ما تحتاج تحافظ على نفس الهوامش الحالية عشان يكون التقييم الحالي جذاب.

السؤال الحقيقي عندي:
هل السوق يسعر تدهور دائم في أعمال الشركة، أو أنه سبق الأحداث وسعر أسوأ سيناريو قبل ما تتضح الصورة؟
اللي متابع الشركة أو قطاع الطاقة الشمسية، وش تشوفون؟

2x trailing earnings, 1x book, 0.4x sales, 2.5x FCF and 1.4x EV/EBITDA after reporting $261M H1 revenue, $45.8M net income and $61.4M operating cash flow. Future 45X credits could be HUGE. Risks: Ethiopia/CBP, Commerce, new tariffs, lower normalized margins, financing a $357M Texas plant and dilution. Those same tariffs could also make TOYO’s U.S. assets more valuable.
What am I missing?

Note: I used AI to help me write more comprehensible paragraphs and double check the numbers.

Long version:
I’ve been digging into TOYO after the selloff and I’m considering starting a position around the current $4.80 area (orders already placed).
I don’t own it yet and I’m not trying to pitch it but this is too good not to share (I think).
The valuation looks unusually cheap, but there are enough real risks that I’m trying to work out whether the market is overreacting or correctly anticipating a major deterioration in earnings.

Why it caught my attention:
H1 2026:
Revenue: $261M, +87.6% YoY
Gross profit: $84.7M
Gross margin: 32.5% vs 16.6%
Operating income: $58.8M
Net income: $45.8M
Operating cash flow: $61.4M
Capex: $27.8M
Cash: $103.5M
Cash + restricted cash: $123.4M
~81% of revenue from U.S. customers
Yet the market cap is only around $200M.

Trailing valuation is roughly:
P/E: 2x
P/B: 1x
P/S: 0.4x
P/FCF: 2.5x
EV/EBITDA: 1.4x
EV/EBIT: 2x
Net debt/equity: ~0.05x
ROE: >50%
ROIC: ~40%
Obviously, 2x earnings doesn’t automatically mean cheap. Usually it means the market thinks the earnings won’t last.
That’s basically the whole TOYO thesis.

Q2 was weaker than Q1.
Revenue fell to roughly $118M from $143M, while net income declined to about $17.4M from $28M.
Still profitable and still growing YoY, but sequential momentum clearly weakened.
More importantly, management did not reaffirm previous full-year guidance, mainly because of uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and TOYO’s Ethiopian supply chain.
So I don’t think you can simply annualize H1 profit and call this a 2x earnings stock.

Even if sustainable earnings eventually settle around $50M instead of ~$90M annualized, a ~$200M market cap would still only be around 4x earnings.
But if margins collapse, the current P/E is meaningless.
Ethiopia is the immediate problem

TOYO manufactures a significant amount of its cells in Ethiopia and sells heavily into the U.S.
CBP has detained some Ethiopian shipments while reviewing the supply chain under forced-labor enforcement rules. Management says imports have not been completely stopped, but delays create obvious working-capital and delivery risk.
Commerce is also investigating possible circumvention involving Ethiopian solar cells using Chinese inputs.
TOYO argues its supply chain is different. Management says it uses non-Chinese wafers and polysilicon, with roughly 70% of Ethiopian production currently using U.S. polysilicon and plans to move toward 100%.
If regulators accept that, much of the current fear could be temporary. If not, the earnings impact could be significant.

Recent Section 232 measures add another complication.
Starting in December, covered imports face minimum prices around:
$0.22/W for cells
$0.38/W for modules
plus an additional 15% tariff on covered downstream polysilicon products.
That could hurt TOYO’s current Ethiopian-cell economics.
But the same policy also makes domestic U.S. manufacturing more valuable.
And TOYO is already moving aggressively in that direction.

TOYO already manufactures modules in Humble, Texas.
Its second 1 GW line should bring the site to roughly 2 GW of module capacity.
It also plans to spend around $357M on a 1.5 GW HJT cell plant, with pilot production targeted around early 2028.
If executed, the supply chain gradually changes from:
foreign cells to U.S. modules to U.S. customers
to:
U.S. polysilicon to U.S. cells to U.S. modules to U.S. customers
That is almost exactly what current U.S. industrial policy is trying to encourage.
So the tariffs threatening TOYO’s current model may simultaneously make its future U.S. assets more valuable.

I initially wondered whether TOYO’s profit was mostly tax-driven.
It isn’t.
TOYO reported $45.8M of H1 net income despite recording roughly $9.6M of income-tax expense.
The potentially huge incentive is Section 45X, which is separate from H1 earnings and was not included in prior guidance.
At full planned U.S. capacity:
Modules: 2 GW × $0.07/W ≈ $140M/year
Cells: 1.5 GW × $0.04/W ≈ $60M/year
Potentially around $200M/year combined.
I would not put that into a base-case valuation today. The facilities must be built, production must ramp, eligibility must continue and policy can change.
I view 45X as optionality.
On the other side, TOYO’s Ethiopian operation currently has a corporate income-tax exemption through 2028, so today’s earnings do benefit from favorable tax treatment that won’t last forever.

In June, TOYO issued roughly 4.55M shares at $11, plus another ~4.55M warrants at a $13.20 strike, raising around $50M gross.
The warrants are far out of the money today.

TOYO wants to build a $357M plant while the equity value of the entire company is only around $200M.
If management repeatedly raises equity at depressed prices, the company could succeed operationally while shareholders still get diluted badly.
That’s probably the biggest thing stopping me from calling this obviously undervalued.

What is the market pricing in?
Probably some combination of:
Lower H2 earnings
Margin compression
Ethiopian import disruption
CBP/Commerce uncertainty
Tariff pressure
Expensive U.S. manufacturing transition
More dilution
Ethiopian tax holiday ending
Texas delays/cost overruns
Those are legitimate risks.
The question is whether too much of that downside is already priced in at $4.82.

TOYO fell to about $4.26 after earnings and recovered to $4.82.
I’m not calling that a confirmed reversal. The larger chart is still ugly.
But if I enter, I’m interested around here because this is where the risk/reward makes sense to me.

Levels I’m watching:
$4.57–4.60: first area buyers need to defend.
$4.26: post-earnings low and my main line in the sand.
$4.87: immediate resistance.
If $4.57 fails and then $4.26 breaks, I’d assume I’m early rather than cheap and reassess.
If this range holds while regulatory visibility improves, the valuation becomes harder to ignore.
I’m not interested because it bounced.
I’m interested because at ~$4.80 I’m potentially paying ~1x book, 2x trailing earnings, 2.5x FCF and 1.4x EBITDA for a profitable, cash-generating business while knowingly accepting that those trailing earnings may deteriorate.

TOYO is obviously statistically cheap.
The real question is whether it’s a viable business temporarily caught between its old offshore supply chain and a new U.S. manufacturing model, or whether the market correctly sees that the old economics are gone and the new model will require so much capital and dilution that shareholders won’t benefit.
The recent solar tariffs make both sides stronger: they increase the risk to TOYO’s existing model while potentially increasing the value of its Texas strategy.

Anyone familiar with solar manufacturing, Section 232, Section 45X, CBP enforcement or the Ethiopia circumvention investigation: what am I missing?

As title says, how to cut the cord? I want to completely move out of replit, been helpful and all, but too expensive.
Currently I just want the website (app) to keep running and fix bugs when they surface, maybe add the occasional feature.

Kindly tell me steps and best alternatives.
Would prefer 100% mobile work like replit. I don’t have access to a PC currently.

Thanks

Sometimes I open and close trades the same day for a 1% gain or so, but then I come across the same stock a few days later and see it’s up 10%. That’s what messes with me psychologically, because I usually did my homework and believed the move would happen eventually.

The problem is I hate holding through dips or volatility. I only close trades daily if they’re green. On the other hand, I struggle to cut losses. If a trade goes against me, I tend to average down and hold longer term until it eventually becomes profitable.

I honestly don’t even know what type of trading this falls under anymore. It feels like I’m taking tiny profits quickly but turning losers into investments because I can’t mentally handle selling at a loss.

How do you guys deal with this psychologically? Any tips, mindset shifts, or risk management rules that helped you overcome it?

Appreciate any insight.

من كثر المطاعم صرت ما ابغى اجرب اي مطعم جديد لأن أغلب الجديد ما تعجبني جودته او طعمه او يكون السعر مبالغ فيه. عندي مطاعم اطلب منها باستمرار و ما اغير.
اكتبوا لستة مطاعم دائماً تطلبوا منها توصيل (مو داخل المطعم)، و ايش
طلبكم في العادة.
الهدف هو التغيير لأني طفشت.

عندي:
بيت الشاورما (ناشفل ستربس)
ذوق المذاق (صاروخ دجاج)
هوا عمان (شاورما لحم)
كودو (فيلي ستيك لحم)
كنتاكي (بروست)
بوبايز (كل شي)
بروستد كي
بروست الريف
ساروجة (كل شي)
دومينوز (كل شي)
كعك و جبن (مناقيش و كعك)
تشينوا (دجاج بمشروم شيتاكي، لحم سيشوان، لحم كزبرة، رز مقلي)
باستاريا (آلي باستا)
شيزان (دجاج ٦٥)
البيك (مسحب و جمبري)
فايڤ قايز (برجر و بطاطس)
ريد بوكس (سالمون او دجاج باربكيو)
ويستر (كل شي)
فلافل ثمار (صبة عادي)

من كثر المطاعم صرت ما ابغى اجرب اي مطعم جديد. عندي مطاعم اطلب منها باستمرار و ما اغير.
اكتبوا لستة مطاعم دائماً تطلبوا منها توصيل (مو داخل المطعم)، و ايش طلبكم في العادة.

عندي:
بيت الشاورما (ناشفل ستربس)
ذوق المذاق (شاورما دجاج)
هوا عمان (شاورما لحم)
كودو (فيلي ستيك لحم)
كنتاكي (بروست)
بوبايز (كل شي)
بروستد كي
بروست الريف
ساروجة (كل شي)
دومينوز (كل شي)
كعك و جبن (مناقيش و كعك)
تشينوا (دجاج بمشروم شيتاكي، لحم سيشوان، لحم كزبرة، رز مقلي)
باستاريا (آلي باستا)
شيزان (دجاج ٦٥)
البيك (مسحب و جمبري)
فايڤ قايز (برجر و بطاطس)

ليس إعلان

تطبيق سهم
بوجهة نظري و بعد تجارب افضل تطبيق، حلوة الفكرة، لكل الفريق مكافآت حسب مبلغ الإيداع، حياكم فريقي من الرابط.

و ضروري التسجيل في سهم قبل دخول الفريق، ممكن تسجلوا باستخدام الرابط هذا فيه اسهم بقيمة ٣٥٠ ريال هدية و بدون عمولة للسوق السعودي و اسعار مباشرة.
كود 2BDUZ
https://s.sahmcapital.com/qt4M?t=1778794321370

هل يوجد؟

SPT is interesting to me from a value perspective because the valuation is now extremely low relative to the actual business.

Current market cap is around $375M. 2025 revenue was $457.5M, so the stock is trading at roughly 0.8x sales.

The business is not profitable on GAAP earnings. 2025 GAAP net loss was $43.3M. But gross margin was 78%, operating cash flow was positive, and non-GAAP free cash flow was $45.9M.

The product is straightforward. Sprout Social sells cloud-based social media management software. Companies use it to manage social publishing, engagement, customer care, listening, analytics, reporting, workflows, approvals, and social data across teams.

The company says it has tens of thousands of customers across more than 100 countries.

Revenue is mostly subscription revenue. In 2025, subscription revenue was $453.0M out of $457.5M total revenue.

The company is also clearly moving toward larger customers. Customers contributing over $30k ARR grew to 3,803 at the end of 2025, up 13% YoY. Customers contributing over $50k ARR grew to 2,022, up 18% YoY.

The acquisitions fit the same social workflow, not some random AI story.

Tagger was acquired in 2023 for about $144M to expand into influencer marketing. Sprout says Tagger helps marketers discover influencers, plan/manage campaigns, analyze competitor strategies, report on trends, and measure ROI.

NewsWhip was acquired in 2025. Sprout says NewsWhip provides real-time media monitoring and predictive analytics for emerging trends and narratives, and helped them enter PR and crisis monitoring.

Repustate was also acquired in 2023 and added sentiment analysis/NLP capabilities.

So the actual business is not “AI content generation.” That was the wrong framing.

The real question is whether social media management, listening, customer care, influencer marketing, PR monitoring, and analytics are durable enough software categories for Sprout to keep growing and eventually produce better margins.

AI cuts both ways here. Sprout is adding AI features, including Trellis in Listening, but the company also lists AI budget reallocation as a risk in its 10-K. So it is not automatically bullish. It depends on whether AI improves Sprout’s product enough to defend or expand spend.

Bear case is still real: growth slowed, GAAP losses continue, SBC is large, management spent on acquisitions instead of buybacks, and dollar-based net retention fell to 100% in 2025 from 104% in 2024.

Bull case is that the stock is now priced like a broken SaaS company even though revenue still grew 13%, subscription revenue is recurring, gross margin is 78%, free cash flow is positive, and larger customers are still growing.

There is also a governance angle. The Class B super-voting shares automatically convert into Class A shares on December 17, 2026. After that, each share has one vote. That could matter if shareholders push harder on dilution, margins, and capital allocation.

I am not saying this is risk-free. The chart is terrible and the business still has real issues.

But at roughly 0.8x sales, with positive free cash flow and mostly subscription revenue, I think SPT is at least worth looking at as a beaten-down software value case.

I own a very large position, so I’m biased.