u/BeneficialManner1840

A lot happening at once so trying to sort through it.

The big one nobody is talking about enough: 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33%, highest since 2007. This isn't just a US story either. Japan's 30-year JGB is at multi-decade highs, Germany's 30-year bund at its highest since 2011. This is a global repricing of fiscal risk. Housing starts already collapsed 12.4% month over month to 1.239 million, way below the 1.345-1.390 million consensus. If the long end stays here, anything rate-sensitive is in trouble.

On Hormuz: the 60-day ceasefire MOU expired August 17 with no renewal. Trump publicly ruled out further negotiations and threatened Oman. Then an unidentified projectile hit a cargo vessel in the Strait. Brent pushed above $90. WTI closed at $84.94 sitting above all three major moving averages with RSI at 56.4. The structural problem here is that most Iran sanctions are congressionally mandated, so even if a deal happens tomorrow the legislative timeline to actually lift sanctions is months long.

FOMC minutes dropped today from the July meeting. Three dissents from Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari all voting for a 25bp hike, first three-way hawkish dissent since 2016. The big question is how many non-voters sympathized but didn't pull the trigger. If the language says "several" members leaned toward hiking, that's very different from "a couple." Worth reading the actual text if you trade rates.

The weird one: gold dropped 1.17% yesterday to $4,366 despite the Hormuz escalation. When gold falls on a day where a ship gets hit in the world's most important oil chokepoint, that's not fundamentals. That's forced selling to cover margin calls from the bond rout. And it already bounced back above $4,470 today, which pretty much confirms it was liquidation, not a change in thesis.

Canada tariffs got a last-minute 3-day pause. The 50% Section 338 tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods were supposed to hit at midnight Tuesday. They got delayed to August 22. But the deal is conditional, documentation isn't finalized, and the president can reimpose them by proclamation without Congress. If they snap back Friday while the bond rout continues and Hormuz is still hot, that's three simultaneous stagflation inputs.

The thing that concerns me most: the S&P is only down about 1% over two days and the VIX barely moved until today. The bond market is screaming and equities are shrugging. That disconnect usually doesn't last.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily brief.

Three things happening this week that I think are getting underplayed.

First, $16 billion in Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods kick in August 19 unless a deal gets done. Agriculture, dairy, furniture, alcohol. Executive authority means no Congressional approval needed. This might potentially just happen Tuesday morning. If it does, expect agricultural futures to react immediately and add another inflation headache to a consumer that's already cracking.

Speaking of which, July retail sales came in at -0.6% month over month. Worst print in over a year. UMich sentiment collapsed to 51.0 against 54.5 consensus. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.3%. The consumer is telling you something.

Then Wednesday we get FOMC minutes from the July meeting. The question is whether the internal debate was more hawkish than the statement let on. If the minutes show real reluctance to cut in September despite the labor market rolling over, the front end reprices and equities take a hit. The 10-year is already at 4.70%, a push above 4.85-5.00% would be a problem for anything duration-sensitive.

Meanwhile crude is sitting at $82.40 with Hormuz still basically shut: 8-15 ships per day versus 130 pre-conflict. Gold holding near $4,380. Both pricing in sustained inflation and geopolitical risk.

The scenario that scares me: hawkish FOMC minutes drop the same day Canada tariffs take effect. Stagflation from two directions at once. S&P probably cracks below the 20-day at 7,593 in that case. Gold likely holds or rallies.

The scenario that rips: weekend deal on Canada, FOMC minutes are data-dependent mush, retail earnings show the consumer isn't dead yet. S&P pushes toward 7,900.

Either way this isn't a week to sleep through.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily brief

Crude is just sitting here despite Hormuz basically being shut. Market seems to have fully priced in the disruption and now it's just waiting for something to change.

Bull case is simple: Hormuz talks go nowhere, SPR keeps draining, and the Canada tariffs hitting August 19 pile on more inflation pressure. Hard to see crude dropping much with shipping still at 10% of normal.

Bear case also simple: one headline about a diplomatic breakthrough and the risk premium evaporates fast. Everything holding crude up right now is geopolitical, not fundamental.

Wednesday could be interesting though. FOMC minutes and Canada tariffs on the same day. Hawkish Fed plus new tariffs would be a stagflation double hit that probably keeps crude bid. Dovish Fed plus a Canada deal and things could unwind quickly. Either way, Wednesday is the day that matters this week.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily brief.

Three things happening this week that I think are getting underplayed.

First, $16 billion in Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods kick in August 19 unless a deal gets done. Agriculture, dairy, furniture, alcohol. Executive authority means no Congressional approval needed. This might potentially just happen Tuesday morning. If it does, expect agricultural futures to react immediately and add another inflation headache to a consumer that's already cracking.

Speaking of which, July retail sales came in at -0.6% month over month. Worst print in over a year. UMich sentiment collapsed to 51.0 against 54.5 consensus. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.3%. The consumer is telling you something.

Then Wednesday we get FOMC minutes from the July meeting. The question is whether the internal debate was more hawkish than the statement let on. If the minutes show real reluctance to cut in September despite the labor market rolling over, the front end reprices and equities take a hit. The 10-year is already at 4.70%, a push above 4.85-5.00% would be a problem for anything duration-sensitive.

Meanwhile crude is sitting at $82.40 with Hormuz still basically shut: 8-15 ships per day versus 130 pre-conflict. Gold holding near $4,380. Both pricing in sustained inflation and geopolitical risk.

The scenario that scares me: hawkish FOMC minutes drop the same day Canada tariffs take effect. Stagflation from two directions at once. S&P probably cracks below the 20-day at 7,593 in that case. Gold likely holds or rallies.

The scenario that rips: weekend deal on Canada, FOMC minutes are data-dependent mush, retail earnings show the consumer isn't dead yet. S&P pushes toward 7,900.

Either way this isn't a week to sleep through.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily brief

Ran every gold death cross (50-day MA crossing below 200-day MA) since 2001 through a backtesting engine. Was expecting to confirm the bearish narrative. Got the opposite.

16 signals total. At 30 days: 68.8% win rate. Price went UP more often than down after the supposedly bearish signal. At 180 days: 75% win rate with a mean return of +5.69%. Not what I expected.

Best I can figure, gold has such a strong secular uptrend (central bank buying, inflation hedging) that the death cross just catches temporary dips. It fires AFTER the worst of the decline, not before. 2008 and 2013 both saw death crosses followed by massive recoveries.

What really surprised us was comparing to copper. Ran the same test: 21 death crosses, 45% win rate at 90 days, p=0.59. Pure noise. Same signal, completely different results across two metals. The difference seems to come down to whether the asset has a structural upward trend or not.

We've tested about 9 commodity signals so far. Only 6 clear statistical significance.

Source: Seeer Financial AI

Ran every gold death cross (50-day MA crossing below 200-day MA) since 2001 through a backtesting engine. Was expecting to confirm the bearish narrative. Got the opposite.

16 signals total. At 30 days: 68.8% win rate. Price went UP more often than down after the supposedly bearish signal. At 180 days: 75% win rate with a mean return of +5.69%. Not what I expected.

Best I can figure, gold has such a strong secular uptrend (central bank buying, inflation hedging) that the death cross just catches temporary dips. It fires AFTER the worst of the decline, not before. 2008 and 2013 both saw death crosses followed by massive recoveries.

What really surprised us was comparing to copper. Ran the same test: 21 death crosses, 45% win rate at 90 days, p=0.59. Pure noise. Same signal, completely different results across two metals. The difference seems to come down to whether the asset has a structural upward trend or not.

We've tested about 9 commodity signals so far. Only 6 clear statistical significance.

Source: Seeer Financial AI

May housing starts fell to 1.177M annualized, far below the 1.43M consensus. Multi-family plunged 41.6% to 284K units. Single-family down 1.9%. Five consecutive quarters of contracting residential investment.

Meanwhile Warsh's first FOMC just moved the median 2026 rate projection up to 3.8% from 3.4%, with half the committee penciling in hikes. Mortgage rates aren't coming down anytime soon.

The rate-sensitive real economy is cracking while services inflation stays sticky at 4.2% CPI. That's the bind — cut rates to save housing and risk inflation, or hold/hike and watch starts keep falling.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily briefs.

Markets rallied back Thursday (S&P +1.08%, Nasdaq +1.91%) after Wednesday's FOMC selloff, but the bounce doesn't undo what Warsh just signaled.

The headline: rates held at 3.50-3.75%. The substance: the median 2026 dot jumped to 3.8% from 3.4%, with 9 of 18 officials penciling in at least one hike. Warsh stripped the statement to ~114 words, purged all forward guidance, and declined to submit his own dot plot projection. This isn't just hawkish — it's a deliberate communication regime change.

The retail sales print Wednesday morning had already closed the dovish door: +0.9% MoM vs 0.5% consensus, gas stations +3.4%, control group +0.7%. Combined with CPI at 4.2% and PPI at 6.5%, there's no data-driven case for easing.

Meanwhile the US-Iran MOU was signed in France today, driving oil lower and giving bulls their excuse to buy the dip. But the structural picture hasn't changed — Warsh is removing the market's ability to front-run policy. No forward guidance means every future data print moves markets more because there's no roadmap.

Housing starts collapsed 15.4% MoM to a six-year low earlier this week. The rate-sensitive economy is already cracking. But services inflation stays sticky. That's the stagflation bind Warsh now owns — and his communication style means we won't know his next move until it happens.

Markets closed for Juneteenth Friday. Next week will test whether Thursday's bounce was a dead cat or genuine repricing of the Iran disinflationary impulse.

Summarized from Seeer Financial AI daily briefs

Monday's crude selloff priced in a best-case scenario that hasn't materialized yet. WTI at $80.75 is now below its 20-day MA ($94) and 50-day MA ($97) with RSI at 38 — technically oversold but with fundamental downside toward the 200-day near $73 if normalization actually happens.

The problem: the Strait is still physically shut. Maritime insurers haven't reclassified passage risk. Vessel operators need independent safety assessments before resuming commercial transits. That process takes weeks to months even after political agreements.

And the sanctions issue nobody's talking about — most US sanctions on Iran are congressionally mandated. The executive branch can sign frameworks all day, but lifting ISA and CAATSA-adjacent sanctions requires Congressional action that could take months.

The EIA had Middle East output down 11 million bpd from pre-conflict levels. Even with a deal, supply normalization is a multi-month process, not a switch flip.

FOMC tomorrow with Warsh's first press conference. If he signals patience citing the oil decline, crude could slide further. If he signals hikes regardless, oil might actually bounce as the growth outlook darkens.

Summarized from today's Seeer Financial AI daily brief.

Friday's session was a case study in competing narratives. Trump announced a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations with Pakistan confirming a "final, agreed upon text" — and crude immediately collapsed. WTI dropped 3.23% to $84.88, now trading well below its 20-day ($94) and 50-day ($97) moving averages with RSI at 38 approaching oversold. If the deal holds and Hormuz reopens, oil has further to fall toward the 200-day at $73.

But gold surged 3.05% to $4,215 on the same day equities rallied. That's unusual — if the geopolitical risk premium is unwinding, why is gold catching a bid? Its RSI at 35 suggests a technical bounce from oversold conditions rather than fresh safe-haven demand, but it's worth watching whether gold is signaling something equities aren't.

The other underreported story: the US Treasury quietly refunded $22 billion in tariff revenue in May after a Supreme Court ruling struck down part of the trade regime. Combined with Trump saying he's "not looking to renew" USMCA ahead of its July review, the trade policy landscape is shifting fast beneath the surface.

Consumer sentiment showed a glimmer of improvement — UMich preliminary June reading of 48.9 beat the 46.0 consensus, with long-run inflation expectations dropping sharply to 3.4% from 3.9%. Still the second-lowest reading since the 1970s, but the direction matters for the Fed.

Three things to watch next week:

• Whether Iran formally signs or this becomes announcement number thirty-one with no deal
• The FOMC meeting — can the Fed acknowledge the disinflationary potential of lower oil while keeping its guard up on core inflation?
• Whether crude stabilizes at $85 or continues sliding toward the 200-day at $73

Full brief with market data: https://www.seeerai.com/daily/2026-06-13/

ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 in May — biggest beat in months and the strongest reading since May 2022. New Orders surged to 56.8, signaling real forward momentum. But the Prices Index at 82.1 tells the other side of the story: 42% of panelists cited Middle East conflict as a cost driver.

Meanwhile WTI jumped 4.14% to $92.16 after weekend reports of fresh US strikes on Iranian sites. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and it's feeding directly into those manufacturing input costs.

The tension between strong growth data and persistent energy-driven inflation is making the Fed's job nearly impossible. Rate-hike speculation is back on the table.

Three things to watch this week: any clarity on the Iran ceasefire status, Friday's payrolls report, and signals on the copper tariff deadline June 30.

Full brief with market data: https://www.seeerai.com/daily/2026-06-02/

Wanted to open an honest discussion here. I've seen VCs funding young entrepreneurs with limited experience and worked out great, as well advanced entrepreneurs having major challenges getting funding - how much does prior career experience really matter then? Personally, it probably matters less than many expect, but matters more than what VCs do not systematically reward it as much as they should either - likely partly due to the current VC cultures that focus on founders with lots of energy, can work long hours and also more 'controllable'.

I found this sub super cool. However, I heard that the success rate for a solo founder is actually higher than multi-founder situation. Also, the failure rate for cofounder is also strikingly high, and finding a good cofounder itself take lots of time. Given that, as brainstorming question for y'all: is co-founder really worth the hunt?

I realized that the major I-Ching English translations today different dramatically, and don't even use the same naming for the hexagrams. So wanted to do a quick survey - which is the favorite English I-Ching translation and why?