It looks like chaos. It is actually five sentences of statute running like clockwork. I went deep on the mechanics using only official sources (travel.state.gov bulletins, Report of the Visa Office, the INA text itself) and once you see the machine, the jumps and retrogressions become predictable. Sharing the full picture because most bulletin commentary tells you what moved without ever explaining why.

Not a lawyer, not legal advice. FAD values are from official bulletins; the projections are my analysis.

(Diagram attached: the full statutory pipe network with the actual FY26 data stamped on each node.)

TL;DR

• EB-1 India only moves meaningfully when a quarterly surplus exists, and that determination has fired in January bulletins (start of Q2), never October
• 2025 proved the baseline: without surplus, EB-1 India moves roughly zero days per year at current queue density
• China's FAD is the best leading indicator for India. The two dates converge by law when surplus exists and diverge by law when it runs out
• FY2027 setup: October 2026 should partially restore the current retrogression; January 2027 is the high-probability spillover bulletin

1. The machine

Six provisions produce everything you see in the bulletin:

Provision	What it does
INA §201(d)	Worldwide EB level = 140,000 + prior year's unused family-sponsored numbers (the "fall-across"). FY25 came out at 150,037
INA §203(b)(1)	EB-1 gets 28.6% of that (roughly 40K+) plus any numbers not needed by EB-4/EB-5 (the "fall-up")
INA §202(a)(2)	The 7% per-country ceiling. Applied to EB-1, each oversubscribed country's base share is about 2,800/year
INA §202(a)(5)	The surplus switch (AC21, 2000). If EB demand in a calendar quarter won't use all available numbers, the 7% cap "shall not apply." This single sentence creates all spillover
INA §203(e)(1)	Visas issue in strict priority-date order, nationality-blind. Cap off means surplus flows to the oldest unreached dates worldwide
INA §202(e)	The snap-back. When numbers stop going unused, oversubscribed countries get pro-rated back to their share. The heaviest consumer gets retrogressed

DOS controls the pacing (9 FAM 503.4), but the direction of every flow is mandatory. DOS cannot route surplus anywhere except the oldest dates, and cannot spare a country from proration once the limit binds. One more input matters right now: the 2025 proclamations (PP 10949, PP 10998, plus IV processing restrictions) suppress issuance in two places at once. Suppressed family-sponsored usage enlarges next year's EB pool via the fall-across, and suppressed rest-of-world EB demand creates the unused numbers that trip the surplus switch.

EB1 spillover machine

2. The receipts: four years of FAD data

Bulletin	EB-1 India FAD	Movement
through Jan 2023	Current	(no cutoff)
Feb 2023	01 Feb 2022	cutoff imposed
Mar to Jul 2023	01 Feb 2022	held
Aug 2023	01 Jan 2012	▼ 10 yrs (crash brake)
Sep 2023	01 Jan 2012	held
Oct 2023	01 Jan 2017	▲ 5 yrs (FY24 reset)
Nov to Dec 2023	01 Jan 2017	held (Q1 flat)
Jan 2024	01 Sep 2020	▲ 3 yrs 8 mo (Q2 spillover)
approx. Mar/Apr 2024	01 Mar 2021	▲ about 6 mo
approx. Jul/Aug 2024	01 Feb 2022	▲ 11 mo (pre-crash level regained)
Sep 2024 to Mar 2025	01 Feb 2022	held
approx. Apr 2025	15 Feb 2022	▲ 14 days
May to Nov 2025	15 Feb 2022	THE FREEZE. Total 2025 movement: about 6 weeks
Dec 2025	15 Mar 2022	▲ 1 mo
Jan 2026	01 Feb 2023	▲ about 11 mo (Q2 spillover; converged with China)
Feb 2026	01 Feb 2023	held
Mar 2026	01 Mar 2023	▲ 1 mo
Apr 2026	01 Apr 2023	▲ 1 mo (peak)
May 2026	01 Apr 2023	held
Jun 2026	15 Dec 2022	▼ 3.5 mo (proration)
Jul 2026	15 Oct 2022	▼ 2 mo (now)

Pattern: every meaningful advance in four years came in exactly two bulletin types. October resets after a fiscal-year-end crash, and January Q2 spillovers. Everything else was flat or backward.

Proof #1: the 2025 freeze was a control experiment. FY25's worldwide limit dropped to 150,037 as the COVID fall-across washed out, rest-of-world EB-1 demand was strong (the global EB-1A surge), the ~40K pool was fully subscribed, so the §202(a)(5) quarterly test failed all year. Cap never lifted. India got base share only. The January 2025 bulletin came and went with no jump, proving January is a test, not a scheduled release. And a frozen date does not mean zero green cards: India consumed its full allocation all year. A static FAD means newly qualified demand with dates before the cutoff materialized at the same rate as supply. A treadmill. The "first applicant who could not be reached" was the same person for 11 straight bulletins. The lesson: at 2022/2023-era queue density, EB-1 India's organic clearing rate on base share alone is approximately zero days per year. All progress is surplus-dependent.

Proof #2: China caught the mechanism on camera. While India froze in 2025, China crept: small advances of two weeks to a month, all year. That asymmetry is diagnostically perfect. Under §203(e)(1), even scraps of surplus MUST flow to India first (oldest dates), so India frozen = surplus was zero, full stop. China creeping = base share against a thinner queue. Then FY26 showed the other two states. Convergence: the Jan 2026 surplus fired, India jumped ~11 months while China moved 8 days, and both landed on the identical date (01 Feb 2023). The law sends essentially the entire surplus to the trailing country until the dates match. Lockstep: Feb to May 2026, both dates moved as one blended nationality-blind queue to 01 Apr 2023. Divergence: the worldwide limit bound in June, §202(e) fired, India retrogressed 5.5 months across two bulletins while China kept advancing to 01 Jun 2023 on base share alone. Practical read: China's FAD marks where the blended queue has already been processed. When surplus returns, India's convergence target is China's current date, so every month China gains while India sits retrogressed widens the guaranteed catch-up at the next surplus event.

Why the backlog is so dense right there: FY26 was itself a measurement. An unusually large, ban-inflated allocation (India's FY26 use will print well above FY24's 8,809 when Table V publishes) sustainably cleared only Feb 2022 to Oct 2022, about 8 months of priority dates with a full year's supply. DOS reached Apr 2023 transiently, but so much Indian demand materialized at 2023 dates that two retrogressions followed. The late-2022 through mid-2023 cohort is heavily loaded (the EB-1A self-petition boom plus priority-date retention from older I-140s). And note: USCIS's pending I-485 inventory only shows domestic AOS filers. Consular demand is invisible until it materializes at NVC, which is partly why DOS keeps overshooting.

3. FY2027: what to expect and when

The current setup mirrors the FY24 opening (a fiscal-year-end retrogression to unwind), not the FY26 one (a flat year with nothing to restore). The July 2026 bulletin explicitly warns EB-1 India may retrogress further or go Unavailable before Sep 30.

The key insight is that two different spillovers arrive at two different times:

1. The pool enlargement (§201(d) fall-across) is automatic on October 1. The proclamations are suppressing family-sponsored issuance in FY26, and those unused FS numbers roll into the FY27 EB level by statute. Watch for the USCIS/DOS FY27 limit estimate around mid-September (the FY24 version was the ~165,000 announcement). A number well above 140K = a big cushion.
2. The India-specific spillover (§202(a)(5) cap-off) is a quarterly determination that has fired in January in both recent surplus years (Jan 2024: +3.7 yrs; Jan 2026: +11 mo), with Oct to Dec flat both times while DOS gathers actuals.

Scenario weights (my analysis, not DOS):

• Hybrid year (~55 to 60%): October 2026 partial restoration (likely somewhere in the Dec 2022 to Feb 2023 range, echoing Oct 2023's partial restore), Nov/Dec flat, then a January 2027 surge toward China's date, followed by demand materializing and another spring/summer retrogression. An FY26 rerun at a higher level
• Sustained surplus (~25 to 30%): a bigger fall-across plus continued ban suppression keeps the pool ahead of demand; the January advance holds through FY27
• 2025 redux (~10 to 15%): proclamations lifted or amended, ROW demand rebounds, small fall-across. October's restoration still happens (that is base-share arithmetic, not surplus-dependent) but the date then freezes below the 2023 cohort on 2025 physics

Watch list, in order: (1) the September FY27 annual limit estimate; (2) October's restoration size; (3) whether ROW EB-1 stays "Current" with no warning language in the Oct to Dec bulletins; (4) any amendment or litigation touching the proclamations, the single input that could flip everything back to the freeze; (5) China's FAD trajectory, i.e. the convergence target.

For consular-processing folks: a January surge can be transient (FY26 proved it). The date must be current at NVC scheduling AND at issuance. If your PD sits in the plausible convergence zone, get documentarily complete and keep everything interview-ready before the January bulletin drops. NVC schedules in documentarily-complete order and sends appointment letters roughly 2 to 3 months out, and post-level scheduling backlogs vary wildly (check the official IV Scheduling Status Tool for your post).

So: if your PD is in the 2022 to 2023 zone, which scenario are you planning around, and what does your post's scheduling backlog look like? Genuinely curious whether the consular folks are seeing the same picture as the AOS crowd.

Sources: travel.state.gov monthly visa bulletins FY23 to FY26; Report of the Visa Office 2024, Table V; INA §§201(d), 202(a)(2), 202(a)(5), 202(e), 203(b)(1), 203(e)(1); 9 FAM 503.4; DOS "Operation of the Numerical Control Process"; NVC IV Scheduling Status Tool. Two mid-FY24 rows in the table are approximate to the month; the values are right. Happy to be corrected on any specific bulletin value, just drop the official link.

With all the variables, knowns, unknowns, hopes ,maths, AIs out there....what are people thinking?

​

Let's crowdsource this one

View Poll

The July 2026 Visa Bulletin shows:

• EB-1 China Final Action Date advances to June 1, 2023
• EB-1 India Final Action Date retrogresses to October 15, 2022

ROW stays Current.

USCIS inventory data as of April 2026 shows why this split occurred. India has a much larger pending EB-1 I-485 backlog in the priority dates that actually matter right now:

Metric	China	India	Ratio
Pending with PD before 2022	~341	~3,569	~10.5x
Pending with PD in 2022	~861	~9,060	~10.5x
Pending with PD in 2023	~1,435	~2,743	~1.9x
Total relevant backlog (pre-2024)	~2,637	~15,372	~5.8x

India’s queue is nearly 6 times larger overall in the pre-2024 window, with its 2022 cohort alone more than 10 times bigger than China’s. This is why DOS had to pull India’s date back even while China could advance.

Many in the community are predicting a 10-15k visa spillover from unused Family-Based numbers into EB-1 when the new fiscal year starts in October

Given India’s significantly larger inventory, the majority of any spillover would likely go toward India first to help close the big 8 month gap (consistent with how DOS has historically managed the two backlogged countries).

This makes China’s June 2023 movement a concrete positive development

The combination of China clearing most of its 2023 cases plus a potential large October spillover creates a realistic window for India to see stronger movement in the coming months.

What do you think about the spillover numbers? Is the expectation that most of it would benefit India first reasonable, or is this wishful thinking? Is the process above codified as a process/policy/law somewhere?

Posting this to organize my own thinking and get torn apart by people who know more. Everything below is built from public USCIS inventory reports and DOS visa bulletins / annual limits. I've tried to separate official numbers from modeled estimates, and flagged where my confidence is low. Corrections very welcome.

Reference point: the June 2026 bulletin (latest released as of this writing; July drops mid-June). Not a lawyer; not advice.

---

1. Where we actually are

June 2026 EB-1 India:

• Final Action Date: 15 DEC 2022 (retrogressed from 01 APR 2023, about -3.5 months)
• Dates for Filing: 01 DEC 2023 (held)
• EB-1 China sits at 01 APR 2023; EB-1 ROW / Mexico / Philippines are Current.

FY2026 EB-1 India FAD path (Final Action chart):

Bulletin	EB-1 India FAD	Move
Oct 2025	15 Feb 2022	—
Nov 2025	15 Feb 2022	hold
Dec 2025	15 Mar 2022	+1 mo
Jan 2026	01 Feb 2023	+~11 mo
Feb 2026	01 Feb 2023	hold
Mar 2026	01 Mar 2023	+1 mo
Apr 2026	01 Apr 2023	+1 mo
May 2026	01 Apr 2023	hold
Jun 2026	15 Dec 2022	-3.5 mo

The date ran from Feb 2022 to Apr 2023 in the first half of the year, then gave a chunk back in June. That shape is the whole story, and it is not organic backlog clearance.

---

2. Why it moved like that (the part people miss)

This year's forward movement was largely artificial, and DOS said so in its own bulletin notes (April–June). Two policies cut immigrant-visa issuance to a large share of the world:

• PP 10949 (Jun 2025, 19 countries) and PP 10998 (effective Jan 1, 2026, ~39 countries plus PA travel documents) — entry/visa suspensions.
• A separate immigrant-visa issuance freeze for 75 countries (effective Jan 21, 2026) tied to a public-charge review.

When a category can't use numbers on the suppressed countries, those numbers don't vanish. Under INA 202(a)(5) they get redistributed to oversubscribed countries (India, China) within that category. EB-1 ROW consular issuance fell roughly 80% from Oct 2024 (~861/mo) to Aug 2025 (~175/mo). DOS pulled India EB-1 forward aggressively to consume numbers ROW wasn't using.

The problem: they over-advanced. Pulling the FAD to Apr 2023 made far more India cases "current" than India's actual full-year allocation. June was the correction. Section E of the June bulletin explicitly warns that further retrogression, or an "Unavailable" designation, may be necessary if India's pro-rated EB-1 limit is hit before Sept 30.

---

3. The supply math

FY2026 official annual limits (DOS, published May 19, 2026):

• Worldwide EB pool: 186,000 = 140,000 statutory floor + ~46,000 unused FY2025 family numbers falling up.
• Each of EB-1 / EB-2 / EB-3 worldwide = 28.6% x 186,000 = 53,196.
• Per-country floor inside a category ~ 7% x 53,196 ~ 3,724. (The 7% cap is technically of the combined EB+FB total and prorated, but per-category this is the working number.)

India exceeds its 7% floor only through horizontal redistribution. A widely-cited model (estimate, not official — DOS does not publish per-country/per-category counts) puts FY2026 EB-1 India at roughly: base floor ~2,800 + family lift ~920 + horizontal redistribution ~10,950 = ~14,700 total.

Hold that ~14,700.

---

4. The inventory, and the "cliff"

USCIS pending I-485 inventory, Jan 2, 2026 snapshot. EB-1 India by priority-date band:

PD band	Pending I-485
2016–2019	2,219
2020–2021	1,100
2022	13,446
2023 (Jan–Apr)	4,104
2023 (May–Jul)	15
2024+	0

Two things jump out:

(a) The 2022 spike is 64% of the queue. That's the EB-1A self-petition surge — EB-1A/EB-1B/EB-1C don't need PERM, so when EB-1 went current-ish in 2021–22 people poured in.

(b) After Apr 2023 the queue basically ends. 15 cases May–Jul 2023, then zero. India EB-1 is also ~99% adjustment-of-status: only ~256 consular visas in 11 months of FY2025. So the AOS inventory is essentially the whole demand picture.

The calculations. Cumulative AOS cases made "current" at each FAD:

• At 01 Apr 2023 (FY high-water): 2,219 + 1,100 + 13,446 + 4,104 = 20,869.
• At 15 Dec 2022 (June FAD): ~13,873 through Nov 2022 + ~half of December's 2,892 = ~15,319.

Compare to supply:

• FY2026 EB-1 India allocation ~ 14,700.
• Current pool at the June FAD ~ 15,319.

The June retrogression pulled the "current" pool back to roughly the full-year number, slightly above it. In plain terms: there's essentially no headroom left. This is the same spot EB-2 India was in right before it was declared Unavailable on May 22, 2026 — and EB-2 India went unavailable at ~9,300 issued, far above its ~3,724 floor, meaning the cap that bound was the redistribution-inclusive allocation, not the 7% floor. EB-1 India is at the analogous point.

The "cliff" cuts both ways. Clearing everything through Apr 2023 takes 20,869 / 14,700 = 1.42 years of EB-1 India supply. But once that 2022/early-2023 bulge clears, the filed queue is empty until a later cohort, so the FAD could jump hard into open space. The catch is latent demand: the DFF is at Dec 2023, and there's an unknown pool of approved I-140 holders with 2023–2025 PDs who haven't been allowed to file yet. They're not in the AOS inventory. How big that pool is decides whether the cliff is a launchpad or a mirage.

---

5. Spillover and porting

Vertical spillover (cascade). EB-1 receives unused EB-4/EB-5 numbers (minimal lately) and passes its leftovers down to EB-2. This year EB-1 passes ~0 down, because EB-1 worldwide is itself oversubscribed: total EB-1 demand ~ 67,823 (60,543 AOS across all countries + ~7,280 consular) against the 53,196 pool. So EB-2 India's spring jump was horizontal (empty ROW EB-2 pipeline from the PERM bottleneck), not EB-1 vertical spillover. Don't expect EB-1 to feed EB-2 while EB-1 ROW demand stays this strong.

EB-1 ROW is the competitor. EB-1 ROW has 18,309 pending cases with 2025 PDs — the opposite of EB-2/EB-3 ROW, which are empty because they need PERM. EB-1A/NIW self-petitioners keep entering with no labor-cert delay. ROW consuming its pool is exactly what limits how much spills to India.

Porting / interfiling. Two effects:

• People with old EB-2/EB-3 India PDs (2012–2014) who later qualify for EB-1A/EB-1C port that early PD into EB-1 and become instantly current, concentrating demand at the front of the line and making the early-PD queue sticky.
• This inflates raw counts: by various estimates a third to a half of petitions filed in the 2020–2022 window are duplicates (same person holding EB-2 + NIW/EB-1). True unique consuming demand is meaningfully below the 21,904 headline. If the duplicate share is high, the bulge clears faster than the raw math implies — the single biggest reason the bull case is even plausible.

---

6. The 6-month forecast (Jun to Dec 2026)

Two regimes, and conflating them is how people get whipsawed:

• Jul–Sep 2026 = end of FY2026. India EB-1 is at its cap. Numbers are scarce.
• Oct–Dec 2026 = start of FY2027. Fresh pool, hard reset. This is where the real move happens.

Base case (what I'd bet on)

Assumes disruptions roughly persist, no dramatic policy reversal, duplicate share as estimated.

• Jul: hold at 15 Dec 2022 or small retrogression toward mid-2022. DFF holds ~Dec 2023.
• Aug: further small retrogression; "Unavailable" risk rising.
• Sep: elevated chance of Unavailable for the final weeks (EB-1 worldwide did this in FY2025 around Sept 8; EB-2 India did it this May). If not "U," a retrogressed 2022 date.
• Oct (FY2027 reset): meaningful jump, but a cautious reopen near the prior high-water (~Apr 2023), not a leap past the cliff. Plausibly ~Mar–Jun 2023. DFF maybe nudges into early/mid 2024.
• Nov–Dec: +1 to +2 months each (~mid-2023).
• Net: dips into 2022 over the summer, resets to ~Q2 2023 in October, drifts toward mid-2023 by year-end. Roughly back to its spring-2026 level, having lost a few months net.

Bull case (genuine breakout)

Requires: bans/freeze persist so ROW consular stays suppressed and redistribution to India stays large into FY2027; FY2027 family fall-up lands high (~81,000+, lifting the EB pool toward ~221,000 and India's EB-1 floor from ~3,724 toward ~4,400, total allocation maybe ~16,000–18,000); the May 22 AOS memo gets blocked/narrowed in court; duplicate share is high so the 2022 bulge clears fast.

• Summer: avoids "U," holds ~Dec 2022.
• Oct: clears the bulge and advances into open space past Apr 2023 — with the filed queue after Apr 2023 nearly empty, the FAD can move quickly toward late 2023 / early 2024.
• Nov–Dec: keeps advancing into 2024 as the DFF pulls latent I-140 demand forward.
• Net: FAD in 2024 by December — a real jump, if the cliff is genuine and the latent 2023–25 I-140 pool is small.

Bear case (lost year, building backlog)

Requires: India EB-1 demand keeps materializing (EB-1A surge continues, 2022–23 cohort keeps filing via DFF); bans/freeze get amended or lifted, triggering the "boomerang" — the 75-country ROW applicants return with early PDs and reclaim their numbers, so redistribution to India dries up. Since EB-1 worldwide is already oversubscribed, any ROW recovery comes straight out of India's share. FY2027 fall-up disappoints; AOS memo stands and shifts more cases to consular.

• Jul: "Unavailable" as early as July, or retrogress to mid-2022.
• Aug–Sep: "U" through fiscal year-end.
• Oct: weak reset — reopens only around Dec 2022 / early 2023, not back to Apr 2023, because FY2027 redistribution is smaller and ROW is taking its numbers back.
• Nov–Dec: crawls +0 to +1 month.
• Net: ends 2026 around early 2023, below the spring high-water. Structurally worse: EB-1 India pending grew 42% year-over-year (15,419 to 21,904). The backlog is forming faster than it clears, so the long-run direction deteriorates even if the monthly number looks flat.

My rough subjective weighting: base ~50%, bear ~30%, bull ~20%. The summer "Unavailable" event is close to a coin flip; the October jump is high-probability, its size is the uncertain part.

---

7. What I'm not confident about (please push back)

• DOS publishes no per-country, per-category counts. The ~14,700 allocation and ~30,800 combined-India supply are models, not facts.
• Duplicate/cross-filing share (1/3–1/2) is an estimate and swings the demand picture massively.
• Policy dominates arithmetic. One amendment to PP 10998 or the 75-country freeze can flip bull/bear overnight. Same for how courts treat the May 22 AOS memo (litigation already in motion, including an order directing USCIS to resume processing).
• The next USCIS quarterly I-485 inventory (~June 2026) will show how much of the 2022/2023 bulge actually drained when India consumed its FY2026 numbers. That single data drop sharpens all of this.
• FY2027 numerical limits aren't published until ~October, so every FY2027 figure is directional.

---

Questions for the thread

1. Anyone have a credible estimate of the approved-I-140 EB-1 India pool with 2023–2025 PDs that hasn't filed yet? That's the variable that decides whether the cliff is real.
2. For those tracking it: how much did the 2022 bulge actually move in the new quarterly inventory vs the Jan snapshot?
3. Do you read DOS's "pro-rated limits" language in Section E as the 7% floor or the redistribution-inclusive allocation? EB-2 India going "U" at ~9,300 suggests the latter — agree?
4. Anyone with consular ROW data points suggesting the freeze is loosening (or tightening)? That's the bull/bear hinge.

Will update after the July bulletin. Tear it apart.

Oct'26 analysis attempt #1 https://www.reddit.com/r/eb_1a/comments/1thjbrb/eb1_india_fad_october_2026_prediction_thread/

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear)

Crowdsourcing where EB1 India FAD lands in the Oct 2026 bulletin. Drop your guess.

WHERE WE ARE (June 2026)

• FAD: Dec 15, 2022 (retrogressed 3.5 months from Apr 1, 2023)
• DOF: Dec 1, 2023
• DOS warned more retrogression or "unavailable" possible before Sept 30
• India cap ~9,800 EB visas/yr normal, 13-18K in spillover years

LATEST I-485 INVENTORY (USCIS released Mar 24, 2026, snapshot Jan 2, 2026)

• Apr 2025 release had ~15,530 EB1 India pending through end of 2022
• DOF sat at Apr 1 / Dec 1, 2023 through late 2025-early 2026, so inventory grew into 2023 PDs
• Working estimate: ~18-22K EB1 India I-485s pending, stacked heavy in 2021-2023
• Total EB I-485 inventory: ~180K across all categories

PORTER POOL (silent demand)

• FOIA data: ~313K EB2 India + ~68K EB3 India I-140s pending historically
• Strong profiles (PhDs, principals, MNC managers) port to EB1A/EB1B
• Each port consumes an India EB1 number invisible to EB1 I-140 receipts

HISTORICAL FB-TO-EB SPILLOVER

• FY21 (COVID): ~122K spillover, EB ceiling 262K
• FY23: ~57K spillover, ceiling 197K
• FY24: ceiling 160,791
• FY25: ceiling 150,037
• Pre-pandemic: usually 0-15K

FY27 SPILLOVER ESTIMATES (PP 10998 + Jan 21 75-country pause)

• Capitol Immigration Law Group: 200K+ EB total (~60K+ spillover)
• Emily Neumann (RNB): ~50K, ceiling ~190K
• GreenCardClock revised: ~55K base (10K floor / 90K adverse) after May bulletin showed DOS rerouting numbers, not letting them evaporate

BULL CASE - FAD Apr 2024 to Aug 2024

• Spillover ~90K+, closer to COVID windfall
• EB1 ROW underuses, unused falls to India first
• Porter velocity slows
• Oct bulletin overshoots like Jan 2026 did

BASE CASE - FAD Oct 2023 to Feb 2024

• Spillover 50-65K (GCC / Neumann range)
• Clean recovery of FY26 retrogression plus a few months
• Porter demand at current pace
• DOF moves to mid-late 2024

BEAR CASE - FAD Apr 2023 to Jul 2023

• DOS keeps rerouting unused FB numbers in FY26, FY27 pool near 10K floor
• Porter pressure surges
• 2022 PD inventory wall absorbs most supply
• DOS stays on FAD chart for EB AOS

DISCUSS

1. Your Oct 2026 FAD/DOF prediction and which case
2. Which spillover model do you trust
3. How much weight on porters - anyone seeing EB1A RFE trends shift?
4. If you have the Mar 2026 USCIS inventory file, post EB1 India bucket numbers

Sources: June 2026 DOS bulletin, USCIS I-485 inventory (Jan 2 snapshot, released Mar 24), USCIS FY23/24 AOS FAQs, Capitol Immigration Law Group Feb 2026, GreenCardClock May 2026, Times of India / Neumann Jan 2026, historical FOIA I-140 data.

When do you think the case can be current?

Case is DQ already and waiting for consular interview scheduling

>