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u/Calm_Reporter_5020

▲ 9 r/eb1c+8 crossposts

EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear case)

EB1 India FAD - October 2026 prediction thread (bull/base/bear)

Crowdsourcing where EB1 India FAD lands in the Oct 2026 bulletin. Drop your guess.

WHERE WE ARE (June 2026)

  • FAD: Dec 15, 2022 (retrogressed 3.5 months from Apr 1, 2023)
  • DOF: Dec 1, 2023
  • DOS warned more retrogression or "unavailable" possible before Sept 30
  • India cap ~9,800 EB visas/yr normal, 13-18K in spillover years

LATEST I-485 INVENTORY (USCIS released Mar 24, 2026, snapshot Jan 2, 2026)

  • Apr 2025 release had ~15,530 EB1 India pending through end of 2022
  • DOF sat at Apr 1 / Dec 1, 2023 through late 2025-early 2026, so inventory grew into 2023 PDs
  • Working estimate: ~18-22K EB1 India I-485s pending, stacked heavy in 2021-2023
  • Total EB I-485 inventory: ~180K across all categories

PORTER POOL (silent demand)

  • FOIA data: ~313K EB2 India + ~68K EB3 India I-140s pending historically
  • Strong profiles (PhDs, principals, MNC managers) port to EB1A/EB1B
  • Each port consumes an India EB1 number invisible to EB1 I-140 receipts

HISTORICAL FB-TO-EB SPILLOVER

  • FY21 (COVID): ~122K spillover, EB ceiling 262K
  • FY23: ~57K spillover, ceiling 197K
  • FY24: ceiling 160,791
  • FY25: ceiling 150,037
  • Pre-pandemic: usually 0-15K

FY27 SPILLOVER ESTIMATES (PP 10998 + Jan 21 75-country pause)

  • Capitol Immigration Law Group: 200K+ EB total (~60K+ spillover)
  • Emily Neumann (RNB): ~50K, ceiling ~190K
  • GreenCardClock revised: ~55K base (10K floor / 90K adverse) after May bulletin showed DOS rerouting numbers, not letting them evaporate

BULL CASE - FAD Apr 2024 to Aug 2024

  • Spillover ~90K+, closer to COVID windfall
  • EB1 ROW underuses, unused falls to India first
  • Porter velocity slows
  • Oct bulletin overshoots like Jan 2026 did

BASE CASE - FAD Oct 2023 to Feb 2024

  • Spillover 50-65K (GCC / Neumann range)
  • Clean recovery of FY26 retrogression plus a few months
  • Porter demand at current pace
  • DOF moves to mid-late 2024

BEAR CASE - FAD Apr 2023 to Jul 2023

  • DOS keeps rerouting unused FB numbers in FY26, FY27 pool near 10K floor
  • Porter pressure surges
  • 2022 PD inventory wall absorbs most supply
  • DOS stays on FAD chart for EB AOS

DISCUSS

  1. Your Oct 2026 FAD/DOF prediction and which case
  2. Which spillover model do you trust
  3. How much weight on porters - anyone seeing EB1A RFE trends shift?
  4. If you have the Mar 2026 USCIS inventory file, post EB1 India bucket numbers

Sources: June 2026 DOS bulletin, USCIS I-485 inventory (Jan 2 snapshot, released Mar 24), USCIS FY23/24 AOS FAQs, Capitol Immigration Law Group Feb 2026, GreenCardClock May 2026, Times of India / Neumann Jan 2026, historical FOIA I-140 data.

reddit.com
u/Calm_Reporter_5020 — 1 day ago
▲ 1 r/eb_1a

Prediction for eb1 india fad 1 May 2023

When do you think the case can be current?

Case is DQ already and waiting for consular interview scheduling

reddit.com
u/Calm_Reporter_5020 — 12 days ago
▲ 6 r/EB2+2 crossposts

"What are my alternatives" threads here rarely cover the UK route, so doing the comparison properly:

EB-2 India UK Global Talent (Tech)
Time to PR/ILR 50+ yrs current backlog 3 yrs (Exceptional Talent) / 5 (Promise)
Job offer required Yes (PERM) No
Tied to employer Yes No
Spouse work auth EAD if H-4, fragile Unrestricted, day 1
Kids age-out (CSPA) Yes None
Cost (USD) ~$5–10k legal ~$5–6.5k all-in
Endorsement timeline N/A 3 wks fast-track / 8 wks standard

The evidence requirements (publications, patents, talks, OSS, impact) overlap heavily with EB-1A. If you've been collecting for EB-1A, most of it ports.

Honest caveats: https://ukglobaltalentvisa.org/global-talent-vs-eb2-eb3

  • UK salaries are 30–50% lower in absolute terms vs US tech for the same role. But you can move back to the US with Eb1C :-)
  • Tech Nation rejects ~40–50% of applications, almost always for evidence-quality not seniority. But you can apply online!
u/Calm_Reporter_5020 — 24 days ago