u/DavidThi303

Drone strikes UAE nuclear plant as US and Iran signal they are prepared to resume war

Drone strikes UAE nuclear plant as US and Iran signal they are prepared to resume war

This was clearly a warning shot. The next missile could take out the substation that feeds the generated power to the HVAC lines.

The design is the Korean reactor design so actually breaking the generator itself with missiles is unlikely. But always possible if they shoot enough missiles at it.

Anyway you look at it - bad news. This provides 25% of the UAEs power.

apnews.com
u/DavidThi303 — 5 days ago

Weekend Non Energy & Power Posts

Well this was a flop last weekend so if it flops this weekend too, then last time. So if you like this idea, post a comment.

This post is to provide a place for members of our subreddit to post comments that have nothing to do with energy & power.

Also no politics or religion as that quickly leads to nasty comments back and forth.

And everyone have a fun weekend.

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 7 days ago

Modem update - previously piece of cake. This time...

So I get an email saying I need to upgrade my modem. And I'll then be on fiber with faster speed. Ok, great.

And every previous modem upgrade it was a piece of cake. Unplug the old modem, plug in the new modem, wait 2 minutes. And bam - all working.

Problems with this one:

  1. Click the link on the email. Wants me to click a button to upgrade. Got an error page. Tried 3 times - error page each time.
  2. So went to the store and after a 20 minute wait they swapped me modems.
  3. Plug in the new modem and... the WiFi settings don't carry over. And I don't remember the exact name I used before so have to re-connect every WiFi device.
  4. All devices connect except our iPhones & iPads. It does connect Kindle, Ring, Alexa, etc. fine.
  5. Spent 20 minutes on the phone with an Xfinity tech who tried to fix from his system. Failed.
  6. So we have a person coming out tomorrow from Xfinity to do something so this new modem can talk to Apple WiFi.

Not impressive

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 7 days ago

Schrodinger's Box return policy

This is a hilarious one. I checked in on my orders and there is an order from November that has been processed but not yet shipped.

I can not cancel the order because it was placed 6 months ago.

I can not return the order because it hasn't been shipped yet.

What happens if Schrodinger can't open the box?

I'm presently waiting 16 minutes to chat with a human...

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 8 days ago

Battery prices are dropping

I hate to say this but u/AndrewTyeFighter is right. Battery prices have not leveled off. I asked Claude and got the following for the last 5 years.

With that said, I still think we need them to drop significantly more to be able to go even 80% renewables. But we might be at the point where 60% nuclear/hydro and 40% solar/batteries will work well.

Claude:

I've been digging into how fast Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) prices have collapsed and figured this sub might appreciate the numbers in one place. Below are the global average turnkey BESS prices (per BloombergNEF's annual Energy Storage Systems Cost Survey) alongside notable real-world project examples for each year, with total project cost, $/kWh, and location.

Quick note on methodology: BNEF's benchmark is a global average turnkey price for utility-scale 4-hour systems. Real project costs vary a lot based on location (US projects are pricier due to tariffs/labor), duration, and what's bundled in (interconnection, land, EPC, etc.). For specific projects I'm pulling reported total capex where available, otherwise estimating from announced figures.

2021 — Global avg ≈ $300/kWh (BNEF turnkey, 4-hr)

  • Moss Landing Phase II (Vistra) — Monterey County, California
  • Added 100 MW / 400 MWh, bringing facility to 400 MW / 1,600 MWh
  • Phase II reported cost: ~$150M for the 400 MWh addition
  • $375/kWh

NREL's bottom-up model put a typical US 60 MW / 240 MWh project around $379/kWh in 2021, so this lines up.

2022 — Global avg ≈ $290/kWh (BNEF, slight uptick due to lithium spike — Li prices rose 400%+ from 2021 to early 2023)

  • Crimson Energy Storage (Canadian Solar/Recurrent) — Riverside County, California
  • 350 MW / 1,400 MWh
  • Reported total project cost: ~$500M
  • $357/kWh

This was the biggest BESS to come online in 2022 and a good marker for what utility-scale looked like at the lithium-price peak.

2023 — Global avg ≈ $273/kWh (BNEF turnkey)

  • Moss Landing Phase III (Vistra) — Monterey County, California
  • Added 350 MW / 1,400 MWh, bringing total facility to 750 MW / 3,000 MWh (largest in the world at completion)
  • Reported Phase III cost: ~$400M
  • $286/kWh

LCOS dropped from $150/MWh (2020) to $117/MWh in 2023. Supply chain easing, more LFP adoption.

2024 — Global avg ≈ $169/kWh inflation-adjusted (BNEF) — a 40% YoY drop

  • Edwards Sanborn Solar + Storage (Terra-Gen) — Kern County, California
  • 875 MW battery / 3,287 MWh paired with 875 MW solar (final phase commissioned January 2024)
  • Total project capex reported around $1.5B for the battery portion
  • $456/kWh (US-specific; US costs ran way above global avg due to 301 tariffs + labor)
  • Bisha BESS (Saudi Electric Company / BYD) — Bisha, Saudi Arabia
  • 500 MW / 2,000 MWh, came online late 2024
  • Estimated cost ~$500M
  • $250/kWh (lower because Chinese-supplied equipment, no import duties)

Big year. NREL's 2024 US utility-scale benchmark came in at $458/kWh for 4-hour systems, so the US/global gap was wide.

2025 — Global avg $117/kWh (BNEF turnkey, 4-hr) — another 31% YoY drop

  • Oasis de Atacama (Grenergy) — Atacama Desert, Chile
  • Multi-phase build, ultimately 4.1 GWh+ (BYD-supplied)
  • Total announced investment: ~$1.4B for the storage portion
  • $130/kWh (close to Ember's $125/kWh all-in benchmark for global markets outside US/China)
  • Ember Oct 2025 benchmark: $125/kWh all-in capex for 4hr+ utility-scale projects outside US/China ($75/kWh core Chinese equipment + $50/kWh install/connection)
  • BNEF also broke out stationary storage battery pack prices alone at $70/kWh in 2025 — the cells/modules themselves, not the full system.

TL;DR table:

Year Global Avg ($/kWh, turnkey) Notable Project Location Total Cost $/kWh
2021 ~$300 Moss Landing Phase II California, US ~$150M ~$375
2022 ~$290 Crimson Storage California, US ~$500M ~$357
2023 ~$273 Moss Landing Phase III California, US ~$400M ~$286
2024 ~$169 Edwards Sanborn (battery) California, US ~$1.5B ~$456
2024 ~$169 Bisha BESS Saudi Arabia ~$500M ~$250
2025 $117 Oasis de Atacama Chile ~$1.4B ~$130

Headline takeaway: turnkey BESS prices have fallen ~60% in 5 years, with a steep cliff in 2024–2025 driven by LFP cell prices, Chinese manufacturing overcapacity, 4+ MWh container designs, and "plug and play" AC-block integration cutting install costs. BNEF projects 4-hour turnkey systems will hit $41/kWh in China, $101/kWh in Europe, and $108/kWh in the US (using Chinese cells) by 2035.

The US is now structurally more expensive than the rest of the world thanks to Section 301 tariffs — a gap that may widen or shrink depending on trade policy.

Sources: BloombergNEF Energy Storage Systems Cost Survey 2025, Ember "How cheap is battery storage?" (Oct 2025), NREL ATB 2024, project company press releases.

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 9 days ago

Thank God for rooftop solar and batteries

So last week our neighborhood lost power for ~ 8 hours. And did we care? Nope. With rooftop solar and batteries we were good for another 11 hours by the time power came back on.

Granted mostly it was the battery. We had a snow storm and so our solar wasn't producing diddly squat. Xcel pushed power to the battery before the storm.

When it happened my wife wanted to turn off everything. Lights, computers, etc. I convinced her all we had to avoid was the stove/oven, dishwasher, & washing machine (our dryer is gas). With a snow storm we weren't going to be running the A/C.

Anyways, I still think home rooftop solar for most units, including ours, is an inefficient way to generate power. But it sure is convenient.

And I appreciate all of you that don't get it subsidizing those of us that do. Rob from the poor to give to the rich - something the Democratic and Republican parties agree on!

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 9 days ago
▲ 4 r/scifi

Review: Serrano Legacy by Elizabeth Moon

I read one of her other series that were good enough that I started on The Serrano Legacy series. This starts off good and with each book better and better. I feel like I'm watching an author work her way from a very good author to a brilliant one.

I'm minimizing spoilers below.

Simple description is it's a space opera where there are no aliens but human kind has split into different political groupings and in some of the groupings there is tremendous variation within.

And like every book of this type there's epic battles. But the cultural dynamics and politics are even more important than the fighting. The cultures have nuance to them. The political fighting is over grand issues at times, and over personal slights and weaknesses at other times.

Who's central to the story shifts at times from story. Some central characters die. Some central characters accomplish nothing because they are captured or injured. And many of the characters go through significant personal growth as the story advances. And while some are less complex than others, none of the central characters is without significant issues.

And the plot/story line is surprising but not in the really weird are you kidding me way. Instead what unfolds feels almost like it has to unfold that way. Except, until you read it you're not expecting it to play out that way.

The other series I've read of hers is Vatta's War and it is quite good. Again nuance and interesting storylines.

Highly recommend her books.

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 12 days ago

Cleaning pistol question (Ruger Mk 4)

I have my first pistol (love it). I watched this cleaning video.

When I bought the gun they sold me the below "complete" solvent & oil. Is this sufficient for both the cleaning and then lubricant? Or do I need to by solvent, oil, & grease?

Also, is it ok to first spray with air to clean out what it can before the cleaning?

TIA

https://preview.redd.it/zlnbotkund0h1.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0f4414db1ea847535adfdf23c24cf136fb952f5

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 12 days ago

Off Topic Weekend Thread

I've seen some other subreddits do this so trying it here. Open comments here on any subject except Energy and Power.

Topics also limited to those you would bring up at a large friendly gathering of people. So no politics or religion.

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 14 days ago

This post is why I wrote up the previous two posts. To provide the numbers.

Critical to all this - Colorado is presently required by law to get to 95% renewables for power by 2050. This is the law presently in effect.

And that means ~ 88% wind/solar/batteries. So that wind/solar/batteries needs to be consistently reliable except for 18 days of the year.

ps - Got a heavy snowstorm with no wind today where I live (Louisville, outside of Denver). So today would be a batteries day. And with the power out in our neighborhood, for me it is a battery day. If they fix the outage in 11 hours, then no problem here at home 😊

u/DavidThi303 — 16 days ago

Yes, Yes, Yes green is better than gas. But at present we need gas to first replace coal as green energy catches up and then as backup for intermittent renewables until we can cover that with green sources.

So... anything wrong in my calculations?

u/DavidThi303 — 17 days ago

I'm 70 and a lot of prompting has taken me back 50 years to University where I majored in Physics & Math. So I may be either way out of date or applying what makes sense in Physics to prompts where they're very different things.

With that said, a lot of suggested prompts strike me as overfitting. It creates significant constraints on the A.I. And while these constraints make sense for the way a human brain works, I think they are often counterproductive to the way an A.I. thinks (or processes or whatever you want to call it).

I do a lot of prompts around energy policy. So I'm looking for things like create a study comparing the CAPEX and OPES for solar vs gas generated electricity. Some of what I do dives deep into components of a question like this.

Here's what I use at the end of most of my prompts after giving it the specifics. Sometimes I edit this a bit to match the query. And note, this comes after a fair amount of text describing the question and the assumptions around the question.

>Perform deep research as needed.
Take your time as needed.
Write the blog for an audience that has a college degree, but no specialized knowledge of the electrical grid.
Your writing should be backed by logical reasoning and include citations to reputable sources.
Maintain the highest standards of accuracy and objectivity.
This report should leave the reader with an understanding of {specific goal here}.
You must use reputable sources and cite those sources.
Your statements must match reality.
This should be written so that readers assume a human, not an AI wrote it.

This has worked well for me. Your mileage may vary.

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 17 days ago

Hi all;

In my post yesterday I added the following at the bottom (subsequently removed):

>ps - I ignore all comments by sault18 and AndrewTyeFighter. Comments from anyone else discussing the post on the issues I will happily converse with.

That was not keeping it civil. As a moderator it is incumbent upon me to never do that in the slightest.

I'm sorry.

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 17 days ago
▲ 8 r/EnergyAndPower+1 crossposts

Hey all - if there's facts that are wrong in my post, please do let me know.

If you just want to get upset that I'm not saying wonderful things about renewables, well knock yourself out as long as you keep it civil. But I won't reply to those comments.

And for those saying renewables aren't baseload (or any other way of saying need to be providing consistent power 95% of the time) - Colorado's plan is for an all renewable system that provides 95% of our power. So yes, for Colorado, this 95% is required.

u/Adventurous_Motor129 — 15 days ago

I don't know why this has not been discussed seriously. Throttling data centers could be more responsive to demand than any generator (yes batteries are even better).

u/DavidThi303 — 22 days ago

I keep seeing different numbers:

  • 7.5GW peak power according to EIA (although this may be Xcel/PSCo).
  • 14GW installed generating capacity in the state.
  • 21GW number I see thrown around at times.

What is Colorado's peak need and what is it averaged over a 24 hour day? And where/how do I find this?

TIA

reddit.com
u/DavidThi303 — 23 days ago

Keep in mind I'm writing about what to do to insure we have sufficient reliable power through to 2030.

Not what is the perfect world we want to have in 2050 or 2100.

u/DavidThi303 — 24 days ago