u/Dean_46

I was blogging on the Iran war and looked at how the closure of the strait of Hormuz might impact the countries involved in the war. When I took a cursory look at the data and what the media was reporting (largely the govt view) it seemed we had things under control. A more detailed look suggests otherwise and that is the subject of my latest blog post.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html

In this article, I argue that for the last 2 months, supplies of oil and gas have been less than consumption, but in the absence of significant price increases, we are largely oblivious to it, which will exacerbate the problem later.
I blog on national security and current conflicts, with original data based analysis. This piece is in the first category, when I was concerned enough to put down my thoughts.

I was blogging on the Iran war and looked at how the closure of the strait of Hormuz might impact the countries involved in the war. When I took a cursory look at the data and what the media was reporting (largely the govt view) it seemed we had things under control. A more detailed look suggests otherwise and that is the subject of my latest blog post.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html

In this article, I argue that for the last 2 months, supplies of oil and gas have been less than consumption, but in the absence of significant price increases, we are largely oblivious to it, which will exacerbate the problem later.
I blog on national security and current conflicts, with original data based analysis. This piece is in the first category, when I was concerned enough to put down my thoughts.

I was blogging on the Iran war and looked at how the closure of the strait of Hormuz might impact the countries involved in the war. When I took a cursory look at the data and what the media was reporting (largely the govt view) it seemed we had things under control. A more detailed look suggests otherwise and that is the subject of my latest blog post.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html

In this article, I argue that for the last 2 months, supplies of oil and gas have been less than consumption, but in the absence of significant price increases, we are largely oblivious to it, which will exacerbate the problem later.
I blog on national security and current conflicts, with original data based analysis. This piece is in the first category, when I was concerned enough to put down my thoughts.

This is part 3 of my Iran war blog series. I believe that the assumptions the US has made about Iran collapsing because of their counter blockade, are untenable and the Gulf states will be affected more - this has implications for India, where I believe we will have an energy crisis from next month.
Written yesterday, as I think the war will resume again.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html

The first part of this series, posted earlier, related to the sinking of the Iranian warship Dena.

Those of you who follow my blog series would know that I see Russia as more likely to succeed in their battlefield objectives than Ukraine. I find though that in the last 3 months, Russia has struggled. Towns they should have taken a month ago are still being fought over. The Ukrainian army, despite its losses is not breaking. I did a deep dive into the casualties and composition of Russian units and find that lack of infantry is a possible cause. Something that has implications for our force structure too.
My analysis in my latest blogpost.
Ukraine war part 18. The case against Russia