On Independence day, I am reposting my earlier blog article, on the 1947-8 Kashmir war.
The first Kashmir war was the longest, yet least studied Indo-Pak war. My blogpost looks
beyond the popular narrative, to some of the lessons of that war and what might have been.
I have provided links to online resources, which do a deep dive into operations.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/06/the-1947-48-kashmir-war-forgotten.html
Hi Folks, I used to run a start-up (as the outside CEO). Before that, when I worked in large companies - both MNCs and family run, I've handled new businesses.
I retired before I turned 50, having met my financial goals and among other things mentor a couple of start-ups, pro-bono.
I blog - mostly on national security and wars, but also write on start-ups.
One of my blog posts, which I compiled a year ago, was a list of free start-up resources, that I thought might be useful to the community.
The list of articles has my other pieces on the Indian start-up scene.
All my writing is based on data which I try to analyse the way the mainstream media does not.
As the blog is free and non commercial, I request mods to permit it, as I am
not promoting.
My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
Iran war part 3
I have 2 points concerning India's energy security. I can research further and put this across to people in national security if there is merit in my arguments. I would appreciate views of this forum.
One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be. I believe we should ban exports of refined products (as China and Russia have done).
In March, Reliance reduced some exports in favour of producing more LPG from crude, but this stopped a month later. My sense is Reliance is enriching itself and has strong lobbying to prevent scrutiny.
I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India. Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi. It will have several benefits.
The Saudis. anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We will be more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers to us oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.
In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines (we lack minesweeping capability) and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it can happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).
My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
Iran war part 3
I have 2 points concerning India's energy security. I can research further and put this across to people in national security if there is merit in my arguments. I would appreciate views of this forum.
One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be. I believe we should ban exports of refined products (as China and Russia have done).
In March, Reliance reduced some exports in favour of producing more LPG from crude, but this stopped a month later. My sense is Reliance is enriching itself and has strong lobbying to prevent scrutiny.
I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India. Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi. It will have several benefits.
The Saudis. anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We will be more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers to us oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.
In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines (we lack minesweeping capability) and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it can happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).
My latest blog post on the war. In particular the possible consequences for India, given the likely rise in oil & gas prices.
Iran war - part 3
I believe the closure of the Bab El-Mandeb strait by the Houthis is an opportunity for India.
Notwithstanding the Houthis hitting 2 oil tankers last week, that tried to get past the blockade, their overall record against ships, using drones
and missiles is very bad. I believe the Indian Navy should escort tankers across the strait, to fill crude at Yanbu, in Saudi. It will have several benefits.
The Saudis. anxious to maintain oil revenues, will have a customer. It gives them a de-facto ally in the fight against the Houthis.
This is ideally what Pak should be doing, under their mutual defence treaty. If we do it instead, it will make them ask questions of Pak.
We will be more comfortable with energy security, particularly if Saudi transfers oil intended for other customers, too chicken to take delivery.
The US will be happy that we are that one country actually working with US to keep the strait open. This is just the kind of optics Trump likes.
Huge visibility for the IN if they pull it off.
In terms of feasibility I think IN is well equipped to deal with a missile or drones. The concern will be mines (we lack minesweeping capability) and the willingness of merchant ship crews to sail. My sense is, it can happen with a tacit understanding with the Houthis & Iran. They can claim they have let a friendly country though (to avoid the embarrassment of seeing their missiles/drones fail to hit anything).
One area I think the govt is ignoring is the continued exports of petroleum products (mostly Reliance). They are exporting refined products, which is the equivalent in crude oil, of what our oil & gas shortfall is likely to be. I believe we should ban exports of refined products (as China and Russia have done).
My sense is Reliance is enriching itself and has strong lobbying to prevent scrutiny.
I can research further and put this to some of those in national security if there is merit in my arguments. I would appreciate views of this forum.
Namaskara folks, I have looked at multiple resources and checked this forum but got no clear answer to this query on filling my SIR online.
No BLO has visited our building - nor does our designated person take phone
queries, even when trying to fill an offline form collected through a local facilitation booth, hence we looked at online.
My parents and I were first enrolled as voters in 2006, in the same location and booth we are in today and have voted in all elections since.
Coming from a military family, we were never long enough in any place to enrol as voters.
There are spelling mistakes in all our voter ID cards - which did not matter do far as the card and voter list name and pic matched.
I filled form 8 online, asking for our names and relation names to be exactly as per Aadhar, which I uploaded, form submitted, acknowledgement received.
What do I do now ? As I understand there are 3 possibilities:
- The BLO will visit home and consider the form 8 acknowledged hard copy we have.
- Our voter details are automatically updated in the voter list. Currently I can see our names there, as they have bene in the past,
- A enumeration form will appear in the menu once the name corrections are made and phone number linked (currently in the opening screen, it says the names have to be exactly as per aadhar, which is why we did form 8 online).
What next ?
I think we can face an oil and financial shock far worse than what the May-May Iran war threatened. There is a combination of factors coming together.
The US bill (to honour Senator Graham, hence it is likely to go through) will impose 100% tariffs on the 5 major buyers of Russian oil and gas - there are exemptions for European allies. China will probably ignore it and the US will do nothing, but will act against us with a vengeance - because they can't be seen to be doing nothing. We will have to stop buying Russian oil, except that:
Most Russian oil going out of the market will mean global supply is reduced, leading to a disproportionate rise in prices. i.e a 2% reduction in supply can mean a 20% rise in price.
This will be exacerbated by the resumption of the Iran conflict. If Iran has to get a similar deal to the discarded MOU, it will have to cause real economic damage in the region - not just fire missiles at US bases, which achieve little and are not influencing the outcome of the conflict. The more the US feels Iranian retaliation is weak, the more Iran is hit and the more Iran will feel they have no reason to not wage all out war - against the energy and economic infrastructure of the region, irrespective of the consequences to themselves.
The Houthis show every indication of closing their strait - an additional 12.5% of the world's oil flows through the Bab-el-Madeb strait.
Additionally, fertilizer prices increase, stock markets fall (crash more likely).
China is sitting on over 1000 million barrels of oil as a strategic reserve. India has about 30 million. Most of the world is also close to exhausting their reserves.
The effect would be oil at $200 /barrel and - because we spend more dollars
to buy the same oil, we have to pay more Rupees to buy each dollar, so the value of the rupee falls - exacerbated by decline in export earnings, because the world may go into recession.
Separately, the AI bubble looks like bursting - look up Ed Zitron, on tech report, or his blog, probably the best thinker on this subject.
This is potentially the biggest economic challenge in our history.
What are the realistic policy options we have? I can think of some:
- We stop the export of refined products. Few know we export petroleum products equal to about 15% of our consumption. Reliance had cut their exports earlier (which were taxed), to produce domestic LPG. Exports have to now be reduced to zero - except some humanitarian cases like supply to Nepal or Bhutan who depend on us.
- The PM has to take the people into confidence, be realistic about the threat facing the economy and call for all parties to be on board for tough decisions to be taken. For e.g a lot of tax on petrol/diesel is state govt taxes. If taxes have to be reduced to absorb some price increases, it has to be a joint effort without finger pointing. Also, tell us the truth about the way forward on ethanol and Isobutanol blending (in diesel) - the latter has
bigger implications than ethanol.
Some ideas around taxation:
- A 1% one time wealth tax on the shares held above a threshold. Ambani and Adani alone will yield 19,000 crore as a 1 time 1% tax. 40,000 cr from the top 20 Indians.
- All e-commerce transactions should have a 5% GST, in all cases where there is no GST. This cannot be set off against other GSTs paid. Since this is applicable to all companies, it is not a tax on US e-commerce firms, though it an be made clear to the US that is an emergency measure arising out of their sanctions on Russia and Iran. We earlier imposed a 6% equivalization levy on foreign digital companies, then removed it.
- Swallow our price and buy some crude oil from China (who will buy it from Russia/Iran and resell it to us). It will send a huge signal to US lawmakers that they are pushing India into the
arms of China. I believe China will agree. They will like nothing better than to replace the US as a voice of reason and reliable partner, for whatever countries that prefer the US over China.
I blog on national security and as an apolitical, retired writer I am read by some policy makers. I'd be happy to include suggestions from this forum and welcome a critique.
This was my last article on the Iran war and its implications for our energy security.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html
I think we can face an oil and financial shock far worse than what the May-May Iran war threatened. There is a combination of factors coming together.
The US bill (to honour Senator Graham, hence it is likely to go through) will impose 100% tariffs on the 5 major buyers of Russian oil and gas - there are exemptions for European allies. China will probably ignore it and the US will do nothing, but will act against us with a vengeance - because they can't be seen to be doing nothing. We will have to stop buying Russian oil, except that:
Most Russian oil going out of the market will mean global supply is reduced, leading to a disproportionate rise in prices. i.e a 2% reduction in supply can mean a 20% rise in price.
This will be exacerbated by the resumption of the Iran conflict. If Iran has to get a similar deal to the discarded MOU, it will have to cause real economic damage in the region - not just fire missiles at US bases, which achieve little and are not influencing the outcome of the conflict. The more the US feels Iranian retaliation is weak, the more Iran is hit and the more Iran will feel they have no reason to not wage all out war - against the energy and economic infrastructure of the region, irrespective of the consequences to themselves.
The Houthis show every indication of closing their strait - an additional 12.5% of the world's oil flows through the Bab-el-Madeb strait.
Additionally, fertilizer prices increase, stock markets fall (crash more likely).
China is sitting on over 1000 million barrels of oil as a strategic reserve. India has about 30 million. Most of the world is also close to exhausting their reserves.
The effect would be oil at $200 /barrel and - because we spend more dollars
to buy the same oil, we have to pay more Rupees to buy each dollar, so the value of the rupee falls - exacerbated by decline in export earnings, because the world may go into recession.
Separately, the AI bubble looks like bursting - look up Ed Zitron, on tech report, or his blog, probably the best thinker on this subject.
This is potentially the biggest economic challenge in our history.
What are the realistic policy options we have? I can think of some:
- We stop the export of refined products. Few know we export petroleum products equal to about 15% of our consumption. Reliance had cut their exports earlier (which were taxed), to produce domestic LPG. Exports have to now be reduced to zero - except some humanitarian cases like supply to Nepal or Bhutan who depend on us.
- The PM has to take the people into confidence, be realistic about the threat facing the economy and call for all parties to be on board for tough decisions to be taken. For e.g a lot of tax on petrol/diesel is state govt taxes. If taxes have to be reduced to absorb some price increases, it has to be a joint effort without finger pointing. Also, tell us the truth about the way forward on ethanol and Isobutanol blending (in diesel) - the latter has
bigger implications than ethanol.
Some ideas around taxation:
- A 1% one time wealth tax on the shares held above a threshold. Ambani and Adani alone will yield 19,000 crore as a 1 time 1% tax. 40,000 cr from the top 20 Indians.
- All e-commerce transactions should have a 5% GST, in all cases where there is no GST. This cannot be set off against other GSTs paid. Since this is applicable to all companies, it is not a tax on US e-commerce firms, though it an be made clear to the US that is an emergency measure arising out of their sanctions on Russia and Iran. We earlier imposed a 6% equivalization levy on foreign digital companies, then removed it.
- Swallow our pride and buy some crude oil from China (who will buy it from Russia/Iran and resell it to us). It will send a huge signal to US lawmakers that they are pushing India into the
arms of China. I believe China will agree. They will like nothing better than to replace the US
as a voice of reason and reliable partner, for whatever countries prefer the US.
I blog on national security and as an apolitical, retired writer I am read by some policy makers. I'd be happy to include suggestions from this forum and welcome a critique.
This was my last article on the Iran war and its implications for our energy security.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html
I am writing this to caution against people getting their history from movies.
I have read up the Longewala battle, cross referencing a few sources. While there are many things to be commended from our side - for e.g. Maj Chandpuri's company of 23 Punjab prevented Pak from causing serious damage, it was by no means a last man last round type of heroic stand, that the movie suggests. A dispassionate observer might conclude the following from the facts:
Pak was able to concentrate a brigade and advance, because our 12th Infantry division, advancing on a parallel course and the IAF failed to spot their troop concentration.
It was a combination of lack of recon, tanks getting stuck in soft sand (both of which could be anticipated), mistaking barbed wire for a minefield (and waiting for engineers) and general timidity, that prevented the Pak commander from overrunning the Longewala post, as much as our resistance. From our side, A company of 23 Punjab refused to evacuate the post, knowing it was faced with a far stronger enemy and the battle would most likely have only 1 conclusion.
We suffered total losses of 2 men and 5 camels killed.
A company, 23 Punjab was not all alone. In order of appearance it had:
- about 20 men of 14 BSF.
- a section each of RCL guns and MMG's.
- a battery of 120mm mortars - 185(3) field regiment, that arrived at about 4am
during the Pak night attack and started firing at 5am. Their mortar shells landing
from a high trajectory, probably accounted for more tanks than the RCL guns of
23 Punjab. The battery CO, Maj Kulvinder Singh, was there with Maj Chandpuri.
- The IAF aircraft that attacked from morning (probably accounted for 26 of the
36 tanks and almost all the 100 vehicles destroyed).
- 2 batteries of field guns were also in range the next morning.
- Tanks of our 20th lancers and an infantry battalion - 17 RajRif, arrived the next
day. It has been argued that if they counter-attacked more aggressively, they
could have turned the Pak retreat into a rout.
Some officers whom the movie forgot
CO of 23 Punjab - Lt Col Kursheed Hussain (his A company was led by Maj. Chandpuri)
CO of 185 light regiment - Lt Col Zameeruddin Shah
185(3) battery at longewala - Maj Kulvinder Singh.
Air observation pilot - Maj Atma Singh.
The CO of Pakistan's 18th infantry division and the CO of 206 infantry brigade
that attacked the post, were relieved of their command the very next day.
Dismissing your commander in the middle of battle, is generally an indication of
gross incompetence.
This is a link to a Pakistani account of the battle - Indian military review publishes
reasonably credible versions.
https://imrmedia.in/military-history-pakistani-version-of-the-battle-of-laungewala-1971/
The first Kashmir war was the longest, yet least studied Indo-Pak war. My latest blogpost looks beyond the popular narrative, to some of the lessons of that war and what might have been. While this is intended for defence enthusiasts, I thought it may be relevant in this forum too.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/06/the-1947-48-kashmir-war-forgotten.html
I blog on national security, current wars and start-ups. I have provided links to sources and more online resources, for enthusiasts of military history.
I am Indian, a former CEO now retired from the corporate world and an amateur blogger on national security, current wars and start-ups. I have had articles on Kashmir published and lobbied (successfully) with the then CM to get the operating hours of Srinagar airport extended.
Two years ago I wrote a blog post - Kashmir 5 years after the revoking of article 370
with a fact based analysis on how the state has changed. My blog articles are apolitical, fact based and non commercial and intended for serious readers.
I sent it to 4 Kashmiri journalists based in the valley and to 4 former generals who have long experience serving in Kashmir. Both sides liked it and thought it balanced. Yet, I was banned from the biggest India sub and both Kashmir forums that I posted on - but not after getting personal hate mail - I'm not even sure if people found the articles too pro or too anti India or Kashmir ! I have just come across this sub and am posting the original article here. I would welcome feedback. This is my blogpost (has links to my earlier work on Kashmir):
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/07/kashmir-5-years-after-article-370.html
I have just written another article on the forgotten lessons of the 1947-8 Kashmir war and will post here, if such posts are welcome.
I also welcome Kashmir based writers who can give me first hand info on life in the State. I recently did a first person account of two Afghans (a young girl and a medical student) on life under the Taliban.
edit - grammar.
The first Kashmir war was the longest, yet least studied Indo-Pak war. My latest blogpost looks beyond the popular narrative, to some of the lessons of that war and what might have been.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/06/the-1947-48-kashmir-war-forgotten.html
I am retired and blog to express and educate myself. I blog on national security, current wars and start-ups. I have provided links to sources and more online resources, for enthusiasts of military history.
The first Kashmir war was the longest, yet least studied Indo-Pak war. My latest blogpost looks beyond the popular narrative, to some of the lessons of that war and what might have been.
I was blogging on the Iran war and looked at how the closure of the strait of Hormuz might impact the countries involved in the war. When I took a cursory look at the data and what the media was reporting (largely the govt view) it seemed we had things under control. A more detailed look suggests otherwise and that is the subject of my latest blog post.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html
In this article, I argue that for the last 2 months, supplies of oil and gas have been less than consumption, but in the absence of significant price increases, we are largely oblivious to it, which will exacerbate the problem later.
I blog on national security and current conflicts, with original data based analysis. This piece is in the first category, when I was concerned enough to put down my thoughts.
I was blogging on the Iran war and looked at how the closure of the strait of Hormuz might impact the countries involved in the war. When I took a cursory look at the data and what the media was reporting (largely the govt view) it seemed we had things under control. A more detailed look suggests otherwise and that is the subject of my latest blog post.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html
In this article, I argue that for the last 2 months, supplies of oil and gas have been less than consumption, but in the absence of significant price increases, we are largely oblivious to it, which will exacerbate the problem later.
I blog on national security and current conflicts, with original data based analysis. This piece is in the first category, when I was concerned enough to put down my thoughts.
I was blogging on the Iran war and looked at how the closure of the strait of Hormuz might impact the countries involved in the war. When I took a cursory look at the data and what the media was reporting (largely the govt view) it seemed we had things under control. A more detailed look suggests otherwise and that is the subject of my latest blog post.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-coming-oil-crisis.html
In this article, I argue that for the last 2 months, supplies of oil and gas have been less than consumption, but in the absence of significant price increases, we are largely oblivious to it, which will exacerbate the problem later.
I blog on national security and current conflicts, with original data based analysis. This piece is in the first category, when I was concerned enough to put down my thoughts.
This is part 3 of my Iran war blog series. I believe that the assumptions the US has made about Iran collapsing because of their counter blockade, are untenable and the Gulf states will be affected more - this has implications for India, where I believe we will have an energy crisis from next month.
Written yesterday, as I think the war will resume again.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/iran-war-part-2-calm-before-storm.html
The first part of this series, posted earlier, related to the sinking of the Iranian warship Dena.
Those of you who follow my blog series would know that I see Russia as more likely to succeed in their battlefield objectives than Ukraine. I find though that in the last 3 months, Russia has struggled. Towns they should have taken a month ago are still being fought over. The Ukrainian army, despite its losses is not breaking. I did a deep dive into the casualties and composition of Russian units and find that lack of infantry is a possible cause. Something that has implications for our force structure too.
My analysis in my latest blogpost.
Ukraine war part 18. The case against Russia