META and SpaceX is just showed us it has excess capacity. If a data centre oversupply is true, semi stocks will fucking crash and burn for sure. Very dramatic end.

But hyperscalers, our beloved Mag 7, the big 3 cloud. like MSFT, AMZN and to a lesser extent GOOG will also collapse. There will be a prolonged and drawn out oversupply in the data centre industry. Data centre players with excess capacity will definitely try to undercut margins of the big 3 cloud providers.

Does this risk mean we should be selling our hyperscaler stocks?

I m sure a lot of you have switch away from KDI. 2.88% is ridiculously low. So what have yall switched to?

Local traffic is dwindling, most discussions are centred on news, not much discussion with commercial intent. Weekly users for the biggest sub were like 500k last year, slowly dwindled to 300k++. For the second biggest sub, it declined slightly but is doing better than the biggest sub because mods here are more lenient.

I know people like painting rosy pictures about international DAU but I think Reddit is not doing well in the international scene because META is just too dominant.

In my country, Threads has edged out Reddit in the online space for discussions. X is also still very popular here.

Frankly, I think India is the main engine for International DAU growth. Like most of the international DAU growth is coming from there. I m not sure if that's a good thing or not. Because Redditors complain about it quite often.

I think the reason for my country's decline is quite simple. Handful of mods restricting the main local sub to very narrow set of discussion. Only news posts are allowed, very rarely will I see general discussions. Users who want to post something about their lives in my country do not have a space. Because if they start a new sub, the sub will never grow because the main local subs are drawing all the attention despite being the problem.

I don't know how Reddit's management is going to fix this. If we are serious about growing DAU numbers, we need to restructure the whole platform. Maybe start by giving mods less control over the main country subs.

Weekly visitors keep falling and is at all time low now.

Not surprising given how poorly the Malaysians subs are managed.

r/malaysia - Overzealous mods

r/kereta boring dashcam videos

r/bolehland - bunch of shitposting nonsense by 16 yr olds

r/malaysianpf - bunch of fake stories and karma farmers. Replies are also very basic and shallow

Nowadays people prefer to post in Threads instead.

Untoasted bread is heavenly compared to the default method of making subway sandwiches. Stop missing out and start telling your preparer to leave the bread untoasted. Cheers.

$MSFT is now at a valuation that is more compelling than $RDDT. Guaranteed winner beaten down to measly PE of 20. I remember $MSFT being priced at a PE of 35. I wanted to own it quite badly but the PE was a turn off. I remember people liking $MSFT way more than $GOOG because it dominates enterprises, which is a more sticky and predictable business.

I owned $RDDT for months. Thought the risk-rewards was pretty okay, not great. And then I saw $MSFT selling for PE of 20. My jaws dropped. What TF? The enterprise king who controls all the world's enterprise and most consumer PCs with staple software that everybody knows, from 90 yr old boomers to 4 yr old bratty kids. The MSFT who owns the enterprise stack. From OS to software to cloud.

Yesterday, i read how gaming on PCs are becoming more dominant and bigger than ever, and thought damn, Windows OS is going nowhere. I remembered reading how Azure has exceeded AWS, how Azure and AWS completely dominate cloud computing.

I immediately sold $RDDT and $CSU, brought in new funds, and used the money to snap up all of $MSFT that I could. This thing is going to $500, no sweat. I don't think investors fully appreciate the kind of moat that $MSFT possesses. This is not a PE20 stock. Even if it stays PE20, earnings growth will make the share price go up eventually.

WHy should i own $CSU which is made up of 1,000 subpar SaaS business when i can own a dominant, top tier, fast growing Software Behemoth for the same valuation? Why should i own $RDDT which has 50/50 odds of strong growth past the $5 billion revenue mark? No thanks. I will just own the safe and steady $MSFT which ridiculously good risk-reward profile for the same potential growth.

I am seeing a lot of $RDDT bulls in this sub lately.

The main bull case for $RDDT is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the business.

$RDDT bulls mistakenly assume Reddit users are the main customers of Reddit. That's not true, advertisers are the main customers of Reddit.

Even if Reddit feels like a much better social media than Twitter, advertisers do not care.

It doesn't matter what you feel as a user of the platform. The Twitter/X user can be a right wing dimwit who votes Trump and the Redditor a highly educated tech executive. Both are just eyeballs for ads.

So we should focus on the ad quality. The fact is Reddit's ad quality is not any better than Twitter/X. 99% of the ads on Reddit are irrelevant. Most of the ads look and feel spammy. Even high end brands like Iphone ads look spammy af, almost the same as Google adsense ads.

Advertisers have reported abysmal results and inability to scale good results because the available audience is very limited. Not surprised as Reddit only has 50 million DAU in USA and most niche subreddits (where the real commercial value is) are tiny.

Reddit has terrible ad targeting. Reddit's ad targeting capabilities are similar or worse than that of Twitter/X's. That's because both Reddit and Twitter do not have user data, Reddit even less so as users are not logged in.

Reddit can target interest and gather user data based on subreddit visits, which is the main and biggest draw for advertisers. However, this has not proven to be effective even after 3 years since IPO. This disappointing result can be explained quite simply. Subreddit visits do not equate to purchase intent. Subreddit visits CANNOT substitute actual user data for purchase intent. To get the kind of user data, you need to know everything about a user, not just what subreddit he visits. In this world, only Google and META has that kind of user data depth. Unfortunately, people will never let Reddit know their real identity.

What about the data licensing business? Reddit may have great data but its data is NOT valuable because everyone can access its data. To illustrate how bad this is, in 2021, Twitter actually had $500 million revenue from data licensing, that was Pre-AI. Why do people pay Twitter? Because they will have no other way to access Twitter's data. The fact that nobody, except for AI companies, pay for Reddit's data is VERY jarring and shows how indefensible is Reddit of its data.

Worse, AI companies like Anthropic and Perplexity actively scrapes Reddit's data through 3rd parties and there's nothing Reddit can do to stop that. The reason why Reddit allows this is it has no other choice as it needs to be visible on Google Search, which contributes more 50% of its user traffic. The fact that Reddit needs to sue Anthropic to enforce its right proves that Reddit cannot protect its data other than through legal avenues, which is a very fragile kind of protection.

I haven't even touch on the risks to Reddit's business, which are pretty serious:

- Very high dependence on Google Search

- Comments/posts by bots that are becoming and may eventually become Indistinguishable from humans

- Uncontrolled share-based compensation and weak shareholder rights (majority of voting power held by management) causing it to end up like SNAP.

For those who think $RDDT is a $100 billion company, rethink again from the perspective of an advertiser and not the user. Pre-Elon Twitter has higher DAU and yet was valued at $44 billion at its peak (during Elon's acquisition). Reddit is now valued at $33 billion despite having lower DAU than Twitter, giving it very limited upside. Yes, Reddit is profitable and Twitter is not. But the future returns from here is just too low. At current share price, $RDDT is at best a 10% growth/year compounder stock. I would rather just own $MSFT or $META as their risk to return are way better than $RDDT.

I am seeing a lot of $RDDT bulls in this sub lately.

The main bull case for $RDDT is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the business.

$RDDT bulls mistakenly assume Reddit users are the main customers of Reddit. That's not true, advertisers are the main customers of Reddit.

Even if Reddit feels like a much better social media than Twitter, advertisers do not care.

It doesn't matter what you feel as a user of the platform. The Twitter/X user can be a right wing dimwit who votes Trump and the Redditor a highly educated tech executive. Both are just eyeballs for ads.

So we should focus on the ad quality. The fact is Reddit's ad quality is not any better than Twitter/X. 99% of the ads on Reddit are irrelevant. Most of the ads look and feel spammy. Even high end brands like Iphone ads look spammy af, almost the same as Google adsense ads.

Advertisers have reported abysmal results and inability to scale good results because the available audience is very limited. Not surprised as Reddit only has 50 million DAU in USA and most niche subreddits (where the real commercial value is) are tiny.

Reddit has terrible ad targeting. Reddit's ad targeting capabilities are similar or worse than that of Twitter/X's. That's because both Reddit and Twitter do not have user data, Reddit even less so as users are not logged in.

Reddit can target interest and gather user data based on subreddit visits, which is the main and biggest draw for advertisers. However, this has not proven to be effective even after 3 years since IPO. This disappointing result can be explained quite simply. Subreddit visits do not equate to purchase intent. Subreddit visits CANNOT substitute actual user data for purchase intent. To get the kind of user data, you need to know everything about a user, not just what subreddit he visits. In this world, only Google and META has that kind of user data depth. Unfortunately, people will never let Reddit know their real identity.

What about the data licensing business? Reddit may have great data but its data is NOT valuable because everyone can access its data. To illustrate how bad this is, in 2021, Twitter actually had $500 million revenue from data licensing, that was Pre-AI. Why do people pay Twitter? Because they will have no other way to access Twitter's data. The fact that nobody, except for AI companies, pay for Reddit's data is VERY jarring and shows how indefensible is Reddit of its data.

Worse, AI companies like Anthropic and Perplexity actively scrapes Reddit's data through 3rd parties and there's nothing Reddit can do to stop that. The reason why Reddit allows this is it has no other choice as it needs to be visible on Google Search, which contributes more 50% of its user traffic. The fact that Reddit needs to sue Anthropic to enforce its right proves that Reddit cannot protect its data other than through legal avenues, which is a very fragile kind of protection.

I haven't even touch on the risks to Reddit's business, which are pretty serious:

- Very high dependence on Google Search

- Comments/posts by bots that are becoming and may eventually become Indistinguishable from humans

- Uncontrolled SBC and weak shareholder rights (majority of voting power held by management) causing it to end up like SNAP.

For those who think $RDDT is a $100 billion company, rethink again from the perspective of an advertiser and not the user. Pre-Elon Twitter has higher DAU and yet was valued at $44 billion at its peak (during Elon's acquisition). Reddit is now valued at $33 billion despite having lower DAU than Twitter, giving it very limited upside. Yes, Reddit is profitable and Twitter is not. But the future returns from here is just too low. At current share price, $RDDT is at best a 10% growth/year compounder stock. I would rather just own $MSFT or $META as their risk to return are way better than $RDDT.

Edit: For those asking for numbers, I have already done a detailed calculation on Reddit's FV months earlier. See link below:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1qyltqm/enough_with_the_opinions_here_is_the_actual_math/ (calculation error here)

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1qz3twp/correction_to_my_previously_very_flawed_analysis/ (this post corrected the error)

I am seeing a lot of $RDDT bulls in this sub lately.

The main bull case for $RDDT is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the business.

$RDDT bulls mistakenly assume Reddit users are the main customers of Reddit. That's not true, advertisers are the main customers of Reddit.

Even if Reddit feels like a much better social media than Twitter, advertisers do not care.

It doesn't matter what you feel as a user of the platform. The Twitter/X user can be a right wing dimwit who votes Trump and the Redditor a highly educated tech executive. Both are just eyeballs for ads.

So we should focus on the ad quality. The fact is Reddit's ad quality is not any better than Twitter/X. 99% of the ads on Reddit are irrelevant. Most of the ads look and feel spammy. Even high end brands like Iphone ads look spammy af, almost the same as Google adsense ads.

Advertisers have reported abysmal results and inability to scale good results because the available audience is very limited. Not surprised as Reddit only has 50 million DAU in USA and most niche subreddits (where the real commercial value is) are tiny.

Reddit has terrible ad targeting. Reddit's ad targeting capabilities are similar or worse than that of Twitter/X's. That's because both Reddit and Twitter do not have user data, Reddit even less so as users are not logged in.

Reddit can target interest and gather user data based on subreddit visits, which is the main and biggest draw for advertisers. However, this has not proven to be effective even after 3 years since IPO. This disappointing result can be explained quite simply. Subreddit visits do not equate to purchase intent. Subreddit visits CANNOT substitute actual user data for purchase intent. To get the kind of user data, you need to know everything about a user, not just what subreddit he visits. In this world, only Google and META has that kind of user data depth. Unfortunately, people will never let Reddit know their real identity.

What about the data licensing business? Reddit may have great data but its data is NOT valuable because everyone can access its data. To illustrate how bad this is, in 2021, Twitter actually had $500 million revenue from data licensing, that was Pre-AI. Why do people pay Twitter? Because they will have no other way to access Twitter's data. The fact that nobody, except for AI companies, pay for Reddit's data is VERY jarring and shows how indefensible is Reddit of its data.

Worse, AI companies like Anthropic and Perplexity actively scrapes Reddit's data through 3rd parties and there's nothing Reddit can do to stop that. The reason why Reddit allows this is it has no other choice as it needs to be visible on Google Search, which contributes more 50% of its user traffic. The fact that Reddit needs to sue Anthropic to enforce its right proves that Reddit cannot protect its data other than through legal avenues, which is a very fragile kind of protection.

I haven't even touch on the risks to Reddit's business, which are pretty serious:

- Very high dependence on Google Search

- Comments/posts by bots that are becoming and may eventually become Indistinguishable from humans

- Uncontrolled SBC and weak shareholder rights (majority of voting power held by management) causing it to end up like SNAP.

For those who think $RDDT is a $100 billion company, rethink again from the perspective of an advertiser and not the user. Pre-Elon Twitter has higher DAU and yet was valued at $44 billion at its peak (during Elon's acquisition). Reddit is now valued at $33 billion despite having lower DAU than Twitter, giving it very limited upside. Yes, Reddit is profitable and Twitter is not. But the future returns from here is just too low. At current share price, $RDDT is at best a 10% growth/year compounder stock. I would rather just own $MSFT or $META as their risk to return are way better than $RDDT.

Shit on GOogle all you want.

But 3.5 Flash is amazing. It made my work so much faster because i no longer have to wait 50 seconds for a reply and it is pretty smart.

Why hasn't Spez or anyone here thought of it? Add Friends is gonna be the best Reddit update in years.

Remember the cool Redditor you liked a lot but never really connected? Add him as friend. This is different from the follow feature which IMO is almost useless.

I bet we will see more subreddits getting formed as more liked minded people gather in a smaller group to form bigger groups.

So the social structure will be: Friends > Group > Subreddits. Form friends, who go on to form groups, who go on to form Subreddits. More interest-based subreddits will draw more DAU. People will stay around longer because their favourite Redditor friend is around.

When users decrease in this sub, the stock price tends to go down a lot later on. Anyone thinking of selling before it drops and then buying back for much cheaper later?

That aside, check out the bots replying bot post below. Really annoying and why isnt Reddit doing anything about this obviously AI trash posts. 😒

https://www.reddit.com/r/GrowthHacking/comments/1u11xb4/im_an_engineer_with_zero_marketing_skills_heres/

1. The negative impact of AI far outweighs $550 million in licensing fee to Reddit. Majority of traffic (50%++) to Reddit comes from Google, and are mainly informational searches. AI will and have reduced overall traffic to Reddit. People will figure they can just get what they want without heading to Reddit.

2. I notice Reddit results on Google Search is getting worse but Google AI Search results returning good information. However, when clicking the Reddit link cited in the AI Google Search, I notice the link contains none of the information stated. Google may have intentionally retard search results for Reddit while showing accurate results in its AI Search, making people choosing to use AI search over searching Reddit results. I think Google may be doing this to other websites too. In other words, Google is not Reddit's friend.

3. If Reddit grows to $5 billion in revenue (i expect around 2028), Reddit will be pulling around $1.5 billion in ad profits. $550 million/year is really not that much compared to the future net profits from ads. Also, the market will be valuing the data licensing portion of the company much lower than the ad revenue because data licensing is less scalable and way less certain.

4. Whatever deal Reddit negotiates for, it should make sure the deal results in an outcome that significantly boosts its user growth and ad quality. Even if Reddit can secure a $1 billion data licensing deal but without any improvements to its ad business, I don't think that's attractive at all. $1 billion is really tiny compared to its market cap of $30 billion, and future market cap (I hope) of $60 billion. That $1 billion is neither scalable nor certain. The licensing deal will also be bound to create a substitution effect as users stick with AI instead of going to Reddit, so the net outcome is definitely worst than $1 billion/year.

5. If Reddit can't secure a deal that is attractive, the company should walk away. Reddit must also reduce reliance on Google. Reddit cannot defend its data from scraping as long as its results are on Google search. So even if it rejects bad AI deals, it will still suffer from the negative consequences if it's doesn't plug this weakness. That means Reddit MUST improve its search ability much more. Right now Reddit Search is really bad. Most of us are using Google to search Reddit.

You all have seen the articles about marketers hijacking Reddit threads and posting their products. This ruins Reddit's authenticity. WHen people start to question authenticity on Reddit, it is over, there is no going back, no more trust.

You all also understand very well the serious threat bots pose to this platform.

There's no way to counter them. Who is going to stop those sneaky marketers inserting comments about their products? Who's stopping the bots?

We need to make post/comment history public. We need to be able to easily verify bad actors. We need to do something to preserve authenticity.

Reddit's already anonymous, there is no need to hide post/comment history.

Do this, and the stock's gonna jump to >$200.

Anybody else agrees? I think it is important to know who are the biggest supporters of $RDDT. Been noticing lots of Asian supporters here lately, though statistically speaking, there should be more western supporters. I wonder if western supporters have lost faith?

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

Can't wait for $RDDT to gap up after the conference. I m all tuned in and having a solo party while watching $RDDT explode. I plan to sell and make a nice profit. I have already planned a nice and expensive vacation, just waiting on $RDDT to give me the funds I need.

https://www.emarketer.com/content/reddit-pushes-performance-marketing-with-new-ad-updates

Author: Marisa Jones

Marisa is a Newsletter Writer/Analyst for EMARKETER, where she investigates trends in the marketing and advertising world. Located in Brooklyn, Marisa is passionate about how marketing can be used to foster a creative and equitable environment.

Reddit pushes into performance marketing with new ad updates

The news: Reddit announced a slate of updates today to further position itself as a performance marketing channel for app advertisers.

• Max campaigns, Reddit’s automated ad option, has been expanded to beta for app campaigns. Early split tests show the tool delivering an average 15% reduction in cost per acquisition (CPA) and 28% increase in results volume; early adopters like DocMorris saw a 20% lower cost per install and 73% lower purchase CPA.
• App event optimization, which helps advertisers optimize toward critical in-app conversions, is now generally available. The tool has so far driven an average 22% improvement in CPA, while mobile and web app AllTrails saw a 28% lower start trial CPA and a 39% increase in start trial conversions.
• Reddit has begun testing dual attribution, its first-party attribution and measurement tool, in beta. This feature gives Reddit advertisers clearer visibility into how Reddit influences user decisions that standard attribution models don’t always capture.
• As part of this beta, Reddit is also testing an approach that unites first-party and third-party attributed reporting in Ads Manager, allowing advertisers to view Reddit’s first-party attribution alongside MMP and SKAN last-touch reporting in a single interface.

Why it matters: In a saturated social media ad landscape, and given current downward pressures on ad spending caused by tariffs and the current energy crisis, marketers are increasingly prioritizing platforms that deliver clear, measurable results. Eighty-four percent of B2B marketers are already shifting from traditional approaches to performance channels, per Madison Logic, while Mediaocean found that 60% of marketers rank performance-driven paid media as the most critical investment amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Automation is simultaneously becoming table stakes for performance advertisers as they look to scale campaigns without adding complexity. By expanding Max campaigns and app event optimization, Reddit is signaling that it wants to move beyond awareness-driven advertising and become a more serious lower-funnel channel.

Implications for marketers: Performance marketing channels are becoming more important as advertisers look for platforms that can prove results and support faster campaign optimization. Reddit’s latest app ad updates give marketers more tools to automate bidding, optimize toward lower-funnel actions, and better understand how Reddit contributes to conversions—which could help Reddit cement its position in a market where it still accounts for a small, but fast-growing, share of ad spending.

https://preview.redd.it/frdafg2hlg3h1.png?width=948&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4741a488d4ed2b2fe25f007fb10c9d03e04dfed

Reddit has always been somewhat reasonable when it comes to stock investing. Not overly bearish nor bullish, but tends to swing to either side depending on the market condition.

I m noticing a huge change in tone after the recent AI led mega bull run. Short-sighted comments and posts such as the following are very common and receiving high upvotes:

1. Stock return exceeded our annual employment income. Investing is awesome!!! No shit sherlocks, the stock market just went up 25%.

2. Who cares if it could be a bubble? Just join the party and make money.

3. Shortage of memory chips will never end.

4. It could be unsustainable, but I will buy now and sell at a higher price. Easy money.

5. I sold all my underperforming stocks to buy AI stocks.

6. Warren Buffet is a fool.

7. Is [insert stock that went up 200%] still a buy?

8. SpaceX is overvalued but RKLB is not, despite both having similar P/S ratio.