I know I know.. dividends aren't the most tax-effective way of building long term wealth every year, but I do have a soft spot for dividend growers like MSFT. Dividends aren't the main reason I hold Microsoft obviously, but with the horizon I have aiming to hold these stocks until I'm old, this growth is exactly what I hope to see for all these years to come
I felt like this was a fitting image for a VISUAL stock analysis subreddit, haha.
Man, look at this. It almost looks too good to be true. But with their latest earnings report, ServiceNow have done it again, higher revenue than the previous quarter.
Stunning, just stunning.
Seriously, are we looking at the same numbers? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills watching the market throw a temper tantrum and wipe $250 billion off Google’s market cap just because they had their first negative Free Cash Flow (FCF) quarter ever.
Yes, the headline looks scary if you have the financial literacy of a walnut:
Wall Street immediately started crying that Google is "burning cash on useless AI hype" and dumping the stock. But if you actually look at the Google Cloud contracted backlog, you’ll realize this sell-off is a massive gift to anyone with a functioning brain :P.
The bears are pretending Google is building data centers in the middle of nowhere hoping someone will use them. They aren't.
Look at the Q2 earnings report: Google’s cloud backlog literally exploded by nearly 4x (a 390% jump) in one single year, hitting a staggering $519.5 billion.
Let that sink in. Five hundred and nineteen billion, five hundred million dollars.
Why do you think CapEx is so high to start with? Because Google literally has to build out infrastructure at breakneck speed to fulfill nearly half a trillion dollars in signed customer contracts!
They are absorbing 6 months of margin pressure to secure decades of dominance. As a long-term investor, that sounds just like music to my ears!
Google is trading at a ridiculously low multiple for a company with an 82% growing cloud segment.
Idk about you guys, but I am aggressively hitting the buy button. Let the algorithms panic over a single quarter's cash flow mismatch. When that $519.5B backlog starts hitting the income statement as recognized revenue, everyone who sold at these prices is going to look incredibly stupid.
TL;DR: CapEx is high because Google has to build data centers to support a $519.5 Billion backlog that grew 390% in a year. The revenue is guaranteed, the demand is real, and the sell-off is a total joke. Buy the dip.
I was looking forward to AXP's Q2 earnings for a reasony. Its Card Member Spending increased by the largest amount in 3 years. The company beat EPS by a good margin, and it's genuinely becoming my favorite long-term dividend growth play
Dividend Growth CAGR of 12.2%, all while maintaining a VERY solid payout ratio of 21.1%.
I know the yield isn't that much yet, but please note that I'm a young dividend growth investor, so for me that's not the main focus right now :)
What's your take on AXP? And are there any better dividend growth stocks out there?
Am I missing something very obvious here? Looking at this chart, MSFT is easily the best risk-reward play in the Mag7 right now
I know, I know. It's not much. My portfolio for now isn't 100% focused on dividend income. But I just love seeing some dividends flow in consistently every month now. Keeps me super motivated.
Is this what life looks like once my portfolio matures? :)
This is the thing I'm wondering here. A year ago, DUOL was very hyped, AI was around, but perceived appearantly to not be a threat at that time. Fast forward a year later and the company is valued as if their entire lunch will be eaten by AI
Look at this chart. Their quarterly DAU is steadily increasing, and even last quarter it still increased 21.2% YoY.
They shifted their short term focus on more users instead of monetization. Investors didn't like it. I don't see it as hurtful for the long term. What's your take?
As the title suggests, I'm interested in hearing your perspective on my portfolio. Some of my high-conviction plays are:
- AI (mainly the hardware providers)
- SaaS (AI won't completely ruin them as the market seems to think)
- Hyperscalers
The thing I'm worried about is my diversification. I have some stocks, like Basic Fit, Evolution, Mastercard that operate in a different sector, but I'm curious to hear if any of you think I'm too concentrated in a certain sector
I mean, look at this. A 6% yield with great coverage, insane CAGR and an insane growth track record. Is there any other stock that beats this?
Had this really interesting discussion with a friend lately. We are both long term investors with a heart for dividends and dividend growth. Obviously, both $KO and $PEP come to mind immediately when thinking if 2 dividend kings. However, I'm quite concerned about $PEP's payout ratio. It's approaching 100%, while $KO's seems much more stable.
Do you hold any of these? Are there reasons not to be concerned about $PEP's payout ratio? Because I'm seeing an upward trend here.
Zoetis is down about 53% over the past year, sitting near $80 against a 52 week high of $164. I had this company on my watchlist for a while, but it was always higher-prices. So a drop this brutal got my attention. The question I keep wrestling with is whether the market has handed me a gift or is trying to tell me something I should listen to.
If we look at the fundamental quality of Zoetis, it's exactly what I love
- ROIC of 24.7% with operating margins around 39%, both still rising year on year
- Share count down roughly 10% over the past few years on steady buybacks (470M down to 422M)
- A dividend yielding 2.65% on just a 33% payout, 13 straight years of growth, almost 19% a year over the last five
- Net income still grew 7.5% last year even with the top line stalling
And it sits in a really nice corner of the market. People treat their pets like family and they don't cut the vet bill when things get tight, there's no insurer squeezing prices like in human pharma, and vets get sticky once they trust a product. Zoetis is the clear leader across all of it.
So why has it cratered? A few reasons, and they're not nothing:
- Growth has basically stalled. Revenue only grew about 2% last year and free cash flow was flat to slightly down. The Apoquel and Librela story that carried the stock for years is maturing, and competition in the pet pain market is finally showing up.
- The balance sheet is the one real blemish. Net debt is around $7.3B, roughly 3.3x free cash flow. Not scary for cash flows this steady, but it's the single box on the scorecard that outright fails, and it's hard to unsee :/
On valuation, you're now paying 13x earnings, 15x free cash flow, under 10x EV to EBITDA, with a 6.7% free cash flow yield. For a business this good, that's cheap in absolute terms. But when I run a conservative DCF (around 5% FCF growth fading to a 2.5% terminal, 8% discount) I get an intrinsic value near $94 against the $80 price. So there's a real discount to fair value, just not the fat margin of safety I'd want before going all in.
Where I land, at least today: this feels like a wonderful business at a fair to slightly cheap price, the classic quality at a reasonable price setup rather than a deep value steal. The whole thing hinges on one question, whether the growth slowdown is a pause or the new normal, and I genuinely can't tell yet.
If you've followed Zoetis closely, is the revenue stall just a rough patch (tough comps, Librela still ramping) or something more structural? And does 3.3x net debt to FCF bother you for cash flows this durable? Trying to talk myself into or out of starting a position here.
I think Microsoft is one of the best and safest 'slow and steady' dividend growth companies out there. Consistenly growing it for about 10% per year, all while maintaining a very safe payout ratio.
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As someone who's looking for safe and good growth, this is an absolutely perfect example of what I'd want.
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What are more companies that look like this?
Today is the day and I genuinely can't sit still 😅
I built Intrinsiqq because real stock research shouldn't cost $300/year. Most retail investors are either flying blind or paying $20-40/mo just for basic financial data, and that always felt wrong to me.
The brutal part was the data. It pulls 10+ years of financials straight from SEC EDGAR filings, and XBRL parsing is an absolute nightmare. Every company tags their numbers differently, edge cases everywhere. I lost count of the nights spent figuring out why one company's revenue was off by a single switched tag. Getting 8,000+ companies to line up with the paid tools took months longer than I'll ever admit, but it works.
What you get:
Core is free, no signup. Freemium, with a Pro tier for the heavier stuff.
This is my first ever launch, so I'm equal parts thrilled and terrified 🙏 Any support at all would honestly mean the world to me right now, a look, a comment, anything. I'm reading and replying to every single one.
This is my PH launch: https://www.producthunt.com/products/intrinsiqq?launch=intrinsiqq
And I'd love brutal feedback most of all: try it on a stock you know well and tell me where the numbers feel off or where it could be sharper. Thank you so much for reading, this community is awesome 😃
Been doing some research on MercadoLibre (MELI) using quality scorecard on Intrinsiqq.com and one combination of numbers really got my attention.
Current P/FCF is 7.1x. Free cash flow has gone from $2.49B in 2022 to $11.82B TTM, compounding at 47.7%. Now look at the consensus EPS growth estimates:
- 2027: 43%
- 2028: 42%
- 2029: 51%
If FCF keeps growing anywhere close to that trajectory, you're looking at a P/FCF that becomes almost comically low in 2-3 years at today's price. We're potentially talking 2-3x FCF on a business that dominates e-commerce and fintech across Latin America. That's the kind of number you see in distressed companies, not compounders with 31% revenue CAGR.
The forward P/E tells the same story. Looks expensive at 43.5x today but drops to 27x by 2027 and 13x by 2029 on consensus estimates. The market is pricing this like growth slows down hard. The analysts covering it clearly disagree.
The two pushbacks I hear most are margins and debt. On margins, yes they've come down from 14.6% to 9.6% since 2023. But this is largely being driven by MELI aggressively expanding their credit portfolio through Mercado Credito and building out fulfilment infrastructure across Brazil and Mexico. These are deliberate investments into the highest growth parts of their business, not structural deterioration. Amazon looked similar during its heavy infrastructure years and margins recovered sharply once the investment cycle matured.
The debt is worth watching. Net debt is at $18.83B TTM and that's not nothing. But with $11.82B in FCF and growing, the coverage is there.
At 7x FCF with those earnings estimates the risk/reward seems pretty skewed to the upside. Curious if anyone else has been looking at this. The FCF yield is too good to ignore for me. Am I missing something obvious here?
Hey everyone!
Over the past couple of months, I have dedicated most of my time to finishing my stock valuation app.
It's currently web only, but the entire mobile view is already configured into it. It you are an investor, finance enthousiast or just interested in seeing how the UI/UX flows, feel free to leave a comment or DM me! I am open to every feedback I can get!
Hey everyone. I have built a stock analysis app called Intrinsiqq. It's meant to be a stock analysis tool for everyone that either loves fundamentals or does not know where to start.
I'm looking for people to test everything, from UI to functionality to use cases.
If you'd be interested, please comment or dm me!
I got so tired of paywalled financial data. Bloomberg costs thousands, Seeking Alpha charges $30/month just to see basic metrics... so I just built my own thing.
Introducing intrinsiqq.com! It pulls directly from SEC EDGAR filings (the same source the pros use), runs a full DCF valuation, quality score, dividend score, and shows 10+ years of financial history.
Data straight from SEC EDGAR + Marketstack for live prices. It took me soooo long to get the data quality well done from the SEC filings, so I'm very happy with where the project is at.
Would absolutely love feedback, especially on the DCF assumptions and quality scoring methodology. Tear it apart! 🙏