Would economists imply intent from outcome more?
I wonder if economists might actually score surprisingly high on this, possibly even 40/40 like I did.
I came across this informal self-assessment for inferring motives from outcomes. It's not a validated psychological test, but I found the idea interesting:
Rate each from 0 (almost never) to 4 (almost always):
- When a policy benefits one group and harms another, I assume the beneficiaries probably wanted that outcome.
- If someone repeatedly makes decisions that hurt my side, I suspect they're doing it deliberately, even without direct evidence.
- When an institution produces an outcome I consider harmful, I interpret it as evidence of an underlying agenda.
- If someone gives a benevolent justification for an action that benefits their own group, I suspect the stated reason may be a cover for their real motive.
- When someone benefits from an outcome, I find it difficult to believe their support is genuinely principled.
- I sometimes treat patterns of outcomes as stronger evidence of intent than explicit statements about intent.
- When two groups repeatedly conflict, I tend to see the other group as more malicious than merely mistaken or self-interested.
- When an explanation involves unintended consequences or institutional inertia, I find a deliberate-strategy explanation more convincing.
- When evidence contradicts my interpretation of someone's motives, I look for reasons why it doesn't reveal their true intentions.
- I sometimes reason backward from “Who benefited?” to “Who must have wanted this?”
Scoring:
- 0–10: Low
- 11–20: Mild
- 21–30: Moderate
- 31–40: Strong tendency
I got 40/40.
But here's what made me think of economists: economists are trained to think in terms of incentives, revealed preferences, and unintended consequences. So I wonder whether economists might score unusually high—not necessarily because they're more tribalistic or paranoid, but because they're accustomed to treating observed behavior and outcomes as information about underlying incentives.
The interesting question is whether that habit can sometimes lead to over-inferring intentionality: going from “A benefits from X” → “A has an incentive to support X” → “A therefore wanted X”.
Would economists actually score higher on something like this, or would economic training make them better at distinguishing incentives from intent?
What is your score?