After an article reports that British people are more likely to overestimate crime rates of minorities, r/unitedkingdom discusses whether minorities are inherently more violent
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>When you consider that they only make up 16-18% of the population, yet are responsible for 35,% of the murders, is still a shocking statistic.
>> And then when you extrapolate the data further, it becomes clear that it isn't ethnicity, it is deprivation that leads to crime. And it just so happens that significant amounts of minority ethnic folks have a considerably higher chance to live in deprivation than the native population. Correlation does not equal causation.
>>What the Guardian headline shows is that significant parts of the population have a strong believe that it is ethnicity that leads to crime.
>>>Surely it depends on the crime. Deprivation might lead to shoplifting, but murder? Rape? Not sure about that.
>>>>You wouldn't be sure about one of the most clearly demonstrated sociological trends in criminology?
>>>>>Something wrong with them asking a question?
>>>>>>"not sure about that" isn't a question
>Commented removed for violating site-wide rules >>17-18% >>>So a factor of 2x more likely rather than 3x which people guessed. >>>>You'll need to adjust for sociao economic status because poverty may be more of an indicator >>>>>If we do that it raises very difficult questions. If we don't do that, we can just import half-understood US issues and get angry at working class white people without needing to think in any more depth. >>>>>>I'd love to know tho exactly is "getting angry at working class white people"? Apart from the straw man in you head
Continued so it isn't super indented:
>It's what the Guardian is for. It allows us metropolitan elite types to feel better about ourselves. >>Oh right, I guess you can provide a link to maybe just one article out of the thousands of articles they publish every week where they've done that very easily I guess? You know, just to show it's not part of some fairy tale you tell yourself to feel better about yourself. >>>There is a link at the top. >>>>It literally doesn't mention anything about working class people, white or otherwise. It just gives statistical evidence of people's biases. But I guess facts are uncomfortable for some people when they go against their feelings. >>>>>Do you think Reform voters are middle class women who read the Guardian? The point is that readers will think "look at the stupid proles". >>>>>>Little bit of projection there I think. Middle class women who read the guardian? No, more middle class men who read the daily mail and telegraph >>>>>>>The article is from The Guardian. Anyway, I have some yoghurt to knit.
>And how about being a bit more specific with the statistics, though? What is the crime rate per capita amongst various groups? How about for asylum seekers from certain countries? Those are the questions I usually see asked by Reform voters, not the dumb blanket question asked by The Guardian who want to ellicit a "Gotcha!" headline. >>It's not the Guardian asking the questions, they're reporting on a YouGov poll.
>A hugher percentage of minorities are going to be from socioeconomic backgrounds where crimes such as murder a more common. This goes some way to explaining what everyone here seems to be obsessing over which is the fact that the rate of murder as a percentage is higher than the numver of minorities in the country as a percentage. Also it isnt surprising that the public think most murders are committed by ethnic minorities, because crimes committed by ethnic minorities in our current social environment are more likely to be reported on. If every time a brown person sneezes it makes the news, obviously that is going to inform general public opinion. When this is pointed out, the general response is that we already have our own criminals so we dont need to import others, as a response to the disproprtionality in reporting lol. This sub is a perfect example. Most days this sub and the UK news sub are basically just hubs to report crimes committed by non white people. If thats all you see, then of course the less...analytical among us will think that it paints an accurate picture. Finally, "minority" isnt a group lol. Which minorities? What are the circumstances? Why is every single person who isnt white lumped into one group? The hilarious thing is that im born and raised here, but if I claim im Nigerian, people say no, youre a british citizen so youre british. But all of a sudden im lumped in with random asylum seekers and such when it comes to crime statistics just because im not white. Am I british or not then? Because you people love reminding me that im not like its a national sport. >>They don't report on murder rates by income here but they do in America and rich blacks commit murder at higher rates than poor whites. I'm not saying that's the case here too, but it's an example of why you can't just extrapolate data to fit your narrative. >>> And theres a long drawn out reason for that too. >>>But rich blacks commit murder at a massively lower rate than poor blacks, so as much as you want to imply that..."blacks"...are simply genetically predisposed to criminality or whatever the hell it is your point is here, (the subject is "minorities" anyway), youre not making a very good one. >>>You guys love just throwing out the words "your narrative" and think you've said anything of value. >>>>I'm not making any suggestions as to what the reason is. Given the US has guns I'm not sure the same trend would be shown here. >>>>There's a culture issue for sure and I strongly believe rates of fatherlessness is a huge factor into why we see these race differences. >>>>>Doesn't matter. >>>>>The point is that socioeconomic factors are the biggest predictor of criminality. Not race as youre trying to suggest. Nothing you've said disprove that. >>>>>Youve compared "poor" whites with "rich" blacks in America. There are a plethora of reasons behind why that might be the case (not that you've provided sources or thresholds for rich/poor, but tbh im ot bothered about asking for them either. Its reddit). A little study into history, particularly american history and their race relations and laws that came as a result of their particular brand of national scale racism, means that simply gaining money doesnt really address historic issues that will lead certain people into criminality. You end up comparing black NFL players from bad neighbourhoods, with investment bankers from lines of historical wealth dating back centuries, and then you say "aha, black fathers" lol. >>>>>But despite that, again, socioeconomic background remains the biggest predictor for criminality (even if you suddenly get rich). >>>>>Poor whites are more inclined to criminality than rich whites. Poor blacks are more inclined to criminality than rich blacks. There is nuance and history to be understood, but it remains true. >>>>>Generalised "minorities" in the UK will also see the same being true. It has been true throughout history. I dont know why people like you suddenly wnat it to be a race specific thing as soon as people other than white people are involved. All of a sudden its about racial inferiority or some nebulous "culture". >>>>>Have fun with all that though. Nothing youre saying is new. Your type is all over the Internet lol
Second reply thread:
>But all of a sudden im lumped in with random asylum seekers and such when it comes to crime statistics just because im not white.
>Because this system must be simply stopped. And then all these issues will disappear.
>>What issued will disappear? Because these issues existed long before this "system" was a problem. Maybe be a little more specific
>>>No. All problems are because of undocumented migration. First of all, it stops fixing issues with normal migration - because the main problem allows people to hide in case of stricter rules. The lack of infrastructure is due to overpopulation. The lack of housing is due to overpopulation. The unemployment is due to overpopulation.
>>>>Ah so people dont see me as an individual human being because of undocumented migration? So racism only exists because of undocumented migration? Oh! Well I was born here over 40 years ago and yeah, I really appreciate you explaining how these things only occur because of undocumented migration. Yes, makes prefect sense
>People will just move the goalposts to say that as long as the percentage is higher than the percentage of ethnic minorities then that is "proof" of what they are saying. >>Why is it wrong? >>>Because their perception of ethnic minority offenders is double that of the reality?
>The trouble with the right-wing is that they only want the statistics which benefit their argument to exist. Screaming per capita in people’s faces one second and then trying to handwave statistics that they don’t like the next.
>>The more interesting statistic here is that, as others have highlighted elsewhere, the public is correct that killers are indeed more likely to be minority ethnic.
>>The fact that the British public think they’re three times as likely rather than twice isn’t as significant; we’re notorious for overestimating the risk of crime occurring.
>>>And what does the public think about the proportion of people in poverty who are minority ethnic?
>>>EDIT: Aaaaand the downvotes come, right on time. We really don’t want any statistic that contradicts the narrative right?
>>>>What do you mean? Are they able to estimate correctly what the proportion is?
>>>>>What I mean is that statistics in isolation are meaningless if you truly want to understand over and underrepresentation.
>>>>>>I see, sorry I thought we could take a truism like that as read. Of course, you need additional data to explain the reasons why a statistic is whatever it is.
Continued:
>Tell the people who downvote any statistic that doesn’t support the “ethnic minorities are just criminals” narrative. >>You’ve referred to alternative statistics more than once in this chain - what did you have in mind? >>>I’ve already told you one? Ethnic minorities are multiple times more likely to be in deprived socio-economic groups, a significant risk factor in violent crime (among white people as well). >>>>Ok, no worries, I thought you were referring to some specific figure but I take your point. >>>>>??? That is a specific figure? Ethnic minority people are 2.5 times more likely to be in poverty, which broadly lines up with the per capita difference in violent crime highlighted in the article.
>Not engaging with much of the comments. Only to say that while there are no official numbers for solving murders in England and Wales the rate is believed to be about 61% but lets say 75% to be generous. What proportion of those 25% unsolved cases might adjust the ethnic ratios. But don't let that get in the way of a good Reddit argument.
>>So in your hypothetical world, ethnic minorities are also criminal masterminds and are getting away with most murders, skewing the statistics?
>>>I don’t know whether the OP is correct here but there are lots of reasons for a low solve rate that don’t include the perpetrators being “criminal masterminds”.
>>>>Right but it’s awfully convenient for certain agendas to say that unsolved crimes skew the data in any particular direction. The nature of “unsolved crimes” means we don’t know who committed them and we have to assume equal proportion to solved crimes
>>>>>Great, of course, but I was responding to your comment where you suggested that being criminal masterminds was the only reasonable explanation for what the OP suggested.
>>>>>>And I’m saying it does not matter what the explanation is, we cannot make any deductions from this figure.
