u/GetOutOfTheWhey

Context:

• Filipino Preside Marcos has expressed optimism that Philippines and China continue their economic cooperation, specifically in joint energy exploration in disputed territorial waters in the South China Sea, this is despite the numerous confrontations between the two nations.
• Marco has placed emphasis that there is no Filipino policy to distance the Philippines from China and that China is and can still remain one of Philippines largest investors.
• Recently there was another incident that has strained relations which involved Chinese Coast Guard near the Scarborough Shoal and sanctions on a Filipino defense minister.
• Despite this, Marcos has emphasized the Philippines' need for energy supplies and seems to be nudging at China to be that partner in developing the offshore gas deposits at Reed Bank.
• These joint exploration talks have increased over the course of this year where due to the Israeli Invasion and blockade of the Hormuz Strait, the Philippines has stressed the need for alternative fuel sources.
• The talks however repeatedly broken down and stalled due to sovereignty issues but Marcos seems to be backing the talks and has said that "all parties involved want it to succeed."

Context

• Taiwan has conducted an anti-blockade drill during its current Han Kuang drills. They did this by deploying their Navy and Coast Guard in a simulated escort mission of a merchant vessel. A simulated minesweeping operation also was used to clear a path for the ship to port.
• Recently China has been conducting more law enforcement patrols in waters off Taiwan's east coast, this comes as Philippines and Japan are in talks of delimiting their EEZ which could infringe on ROC's EEZ claims.
• This would be the first time that the Coast Guard and Navy conducted an anti-blockade drill.

Context of Blockades

• Blockades by definition are acts of war, however practically they often do not result in war because alternative framings of a blockade have been used to operate in a legally gray area and to prevent automatic escalations.
• In recent times, ThinkTanks have gradually started exploring the scenario where instead of invading Taiwan, China would instead blockade Taiwan. Showing that such maneuvers being effective in blockades of the following US-Venezuela, US-Cuba, US-Iran and Iran-Gulf States.
• In the past, Taiwan has showed a blockade on the Mainland ports has been successful at restricting the Mainland's economic activity.
• At the time, Taiwan not only seized foreign vessels but also shot at them to prevent them from docking in Chinese ports.
• This aggressive blockade of Chinese ports started in 1949 and then ended in 1979, while it achieved its purpose of limiting China's economic opportunities. It had the unattended effect of severely alienating neutral countries which led to the diplomatic blunder where these countries began supporting China's admission into the UN.
• It is unclear if the CCP would want to emulate something like this and how they would solve the issue of ally alienation if they should start a blockade.

Context:

• Headline statement here is that China is beating the U.S. in open-weight AI models and could reach the frontier by late 2026/2027, this is claimed by Hugging Face CEO Clement Delangue.
• He credits this to China's open collaboration culture versus U.S. labs "building in silos" and risk falling behind as a result.
• This comes as OpenAI agents were caught hacking into Hugging Face last month, where they broke out of a training environment and infiltrated the platform.
• This has intensified worries about AI-powered cybersecurity threats, especially as US frontier models at the time refused aid Hugging Face's technical team in solving the issue at the time.
• Delangue claims the the breach was due to engineering mistakes and said to resolve the hacks, their company resorted to use an Chinese open model, GLM 5.2 from ZAi, to help resolve it.
• In the mean time, Tech giants like Microsoft, Palantir, and Nvidia have been lobbying against restrictions on open-weight models.
• Delangue predicts that open models will dominate the booming AI cybersecurity market
• Despite these claims Hugging Face still maintains a “healthy collaboration” with OpenAI and called the frontier lab “good partners”.

Context:

• United States is preparing a bill that would let Trump impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, with the primary targets being Indian and China.
• Specifically US Lawmakers have bluntly said that the goal of the bill is to target India and China,
  • The new bill is "carefully crafted to ensure we are not hitting our allies. We are hitting China, India ... let's be really blunt."
• They believe this law would help cut off funding for Russia as the lawmakers have claimed that India has already cut Russian oil purchases by 50% after Trump's 25% tariff.
• India already faces a combined 50% US tariff (25% reciprocal + 25% oil-related).
• India has called the tariffs "unjustified and unreasonable," defending purchases as energy security.
• China has called called the bill an "illegal unilateral sanctions".

Further Context:

• Besides the non-US-ally countries (IN, CN, etc) targeted in the bill, currently the following US allies are also buying Russian crude/gas/fossilfuels: Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, Japan, France, Belgium, Azerbaijan and Slovakia.
• The new bills uses specific legal gymnastics to avoid tariffing these US allies
  • If a country's gas thresholds are below a certain amount, the country, they can avoid being tariffed
  • If the President Trump decides that it serves national interests, they can exempt an ally from the tariffs. Which the president has already used to exempt Hungary from the tariffs.
  • These are the mechanisms to preserve the rules of this specific law.
• For China, the threat of a 100% tariff is not new. A similar situation escalated last year and then China "encouraged" Trump to deescalate it just as quickly. It is unclear what would happen this year.
• For India, this is a surprise as during the US-Israeli Invasion of Iran and subsequent Hormuz Strait closure, the US actually allowed India to purchase Russian crude in order to ease global shortage.
  • Too my knowledge that strait closure is still active

Context:

• Taiwanese Coast Guard has condemned China after the Chinese research vessel Lanhai 201 has completed a week-long fisheries resources survey in the eastern part of Republic of China's Exclusive Economic Zone, calling it a violation of their sovereignty
• The survey was from July 17-23 and was operated by the Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences where they gathered biological and environmental data for fisheries management.
• This is the second Chinese research vessel to enter waters east of Taiwan since June, which at the time conducted a survey from June 16-18 and briefly entered Taiwan's restricted waters within 24 nautical miles of the coast.
• These surveys follow a series of Chinese "special maritime law enforcement operations" launched in June in the same waters, which Beijing framed as a response to Japan and the Philippines starting talks to delimit their EEZ.
• The de facto embassies of the US, UK, Germany, and France on Taiwan have jointly voiced concern on June 24 over China's maritime enforcement actions, warning they threaten regional stability.

Additional Context:

• On May 28, 2026, Japan and the Philippines announced they would begin formal talks to expand their maritime boundary between their own EEZs and continental shelves.
• There soon became an issue as the proposed boundary runs through waters east of Taiwan where the Republic of China's own 200-nautical-mile EEZ exists.
• Despite there being overlapping EEZ claims between the Philippines, Japan and the Republic of China. The representatives from the DPP are absent from these 2-way talks that Philippines and Japan are having.
• The Taiwanese DPP government has in the mean time told that since they are not invited to these talks, that Japan and Philippines should eventually consult with them when making a final decision.
• The KMT, Taiwan's main opposition party, has since called this response "humiliating" and warned that failing to secure a role in the talks could hurt Taiwanese fishermen's livelihoods in the long-term.
• Under UNCLOS, whenever there is a delimitation among overlapping claimant countries, there should be a consultation that involves all parties with a stake, not just 2/3. By inserting themselves into this consultation, China can be seen as the party insisting on a three-way consultation but with the caveat that they are being the third party acting on behalf of Taiwan.
• At the same time, China's surveys and aggressive maneuvers in the areas of east of Taiwan prevents Japan and the Philippines from completing their talks, where their mixed bag of deterrence defacto-preserves the status quo.

Context:

• Germany deported Arafat Adil, a 21-year-old dual Chinese-Turkish Uyghur national, from Frankfurt to Beijing, where he was detained and questioned on arrival.
• His mother said the family had lived in Turkey since 2017 and is confused over why Germany sent him to China rather than Turkey, since he held valid passports from both countries.
• Uyghur rights advocates have called the deportation "heartbreaking" and criticized Germany for setting a troubling precedent.
• Germany's Interior Ministry stated there's no blanket suspension of deportations to China for Uyghurs, though standard policy generally grants them protection when China is the country of origin.
• There was a similar case in November 2025 where Germany deported a Uyghur woman, Reziwanguli Baikeli, to China who also with the same background as Adil got a Turkish passport after leaving China in 2017. Then went from Turkey to Germany to claim asylum for protect from China. Fortunately she was not detained and was able to catch a flight back to Turkey.

Context:

• Panama and China have agreed to renew a maritime shipping treaty that gives preferential treatment to Panamanian-flagged vessels in Chinese ports
• The deal was reached after negotiations in Beijing last week, with both sides agreeing to move forward with renewal procedures
• The current agreement, which expires this year, provides preferential port tariffs and simplified bureaucratic rules for Panamanian ships in China
• The renewal comes after tensions where due to American pressure, the Panamanian supreme court unilaterally cancelled CK Hutchison's concession to operate two ports along the Panama Canal
• China then responded by tightening inspections of Panamanian vessels, reportedly ~500 Panamanian flagged ships were detained in 2026.
• Panama has thousands of vessels from all over the globe flying their flag of convenience due to it being cheap, has light regulation, and offers tax advantages
  • Losing the advantages provided by the Chinese treaty and added inspection have prompted shipowners to reflag to a rival registry, such as those of the Marshal Islands and thus costing Panama revenue and reputation
  • According to Clarksons Research (reported by Portnews), "Panama’s ship registry has shrunk by 3.3% so far this year as owners move tonnage away from the flag under heavier Chinese port state control scrutiny"

Significance:

• This renewal signals that both countries are still willing to negotiate with each other, with China deescalating from the recent fallout
• At the same time, it also forces Panama to realize that they need to find ways to hedge between American and Chinese interests without fully picking a side
• While this renewal might provide immediate relief to the Panamanian government, it is likely conditional on how Panama behaves in regards to the future CK Hutchinson's International Arbitration
• CK's $2 Billion case against Panama might take years to conclude however it leaves room for diplomatic negotiated settlement

Context:

• The EU is set to debate on a ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements, this comes amid a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Palestinian territories. This will only be a debate.
• Recently a UN inquiry has concluded Israel is committing genocide and that the Tel Aviv government has been supporting violence in the West Bank that has killed a minimum of 235 Palestinian children in territories.
  • (Disclaimer: The West Bank is not Gaza, the death toll from Gaza bombing, starvation and shooting campaigns are not included in this number)
• As of now the EU Commission has three options going forward: (1) a partial/total import ban, (2) high tariffs to make any imports economically impossible or (3) an import licensing system.
• This comes at a sensitive time because Israel will have their first general elections on October 27, 2026, the first once since the October 7 Hamas Attack.
• 10 EU member states have voiced opinions that the EU is legally obligated to act on the 2024 ICJ ruling that Israel is committing apartheid and breaking multiple international laws.
  • The Guardian names only Belgium, Netherlands and Spain, but of the 10, it is likely to also include Ireland, Slovenia, France and Sweden.
• The NGO Global Echo has found that 1 in 6 shipments from Israel, contain mislabeled rerouted goods from the Palestinian Territories. Confirming a practice where Israeli tax authorities allowed the practice of mislabeling export goods.

Context:

• Landfall expected Saturday evening between Fujian and Zhejiang, with winds of 137–162 km/h whatever that means.
• China's meteorological center issued an orange alert (second-highest of four levels), so it's huge.
• After landfall, they see two possible paths: the storm could move toward the Hubei-Anhui-Henan border and dissipate, or turn northeast and become an extratropical cyclone
• For those with cars, now is a good time for you to start putting your home address into Qwen, ChatGPT, Deepseek, etc to figure out if you live in a flood prone areas.
  • And if you do live in a flood prone area, it's time to start figuring out if you should go park your car at a local above ground parking lot.
  • You got like 30 hours to figure that out.
  • For our friends in Taiwan, you got less.

Context:

• There is a narrative building among Oil Analysts that China somehow managed to save and calmed the global oil markets. Offsetting the Middle East oil supply shock by cutting their own imports.
• In a crisis that should have been more disastrous, the Hormuz oil shock, it turned out to be have subsided more quickly than expected and the reason for it was not diplomacy working but because China quietly and abruptly slashed its own oil imports by 40-45%, freeing supply for the rest of the world.
• It was reported that the drop in Chinese imports was larger than the combined releases from every country's strategic oil reserve.
• The key issue is that analysts do not fully understand how China managed to do this since China doesnt public official demand data and can only infer information through trade flows. The number available currently makes it look like China is in a depression level slump such as when it was in a Covid zero phase, which it clearly isnt at the moment.
• The analyst in the video admits that despite China's vast electrification efforts playing a major role in dulling their oil demand, he believes this alone cant account for a swing this large and this long without a rebound in purchases. China is oil poor and if stockpiles are running out, eventually China needs to start replenishing those reserves again from the market.
• The analyst provides a few theories why China didnt rush back into the market to buy up everything:
  • Theory 1 - Stockpiling Theory, China had been quietly building mass reserves in case it ever got cut off from global oil supplies and this is what we are seeing in action. China has the stockpiles and diversification heft that they can rely on it and are simply waiting for oil prices to further go back down before they start stockpiling once again.
  • Theory 2 - Mutual Survival Theory, China may have deliberately reduced imports to help cushion Asian and European economies from a full blown energy crisis. Not necessarily out of altruistic concerns but because China seeks to diversify trade away from the US which requires that these alternative economies survive and not be collapsed by the effects of this Israeli-US invasion.
  • Theory 3 - The Art of the Deal Theory, in a theory without evidence or a tinfoil hat theory, the analyst proposes that there might have been a secret handshake deal that China and US may have been reached. Where China would drastically reduce imports to blunt economic collapse within US ally nations in exchange that the US would step back away from Asia. The analyst doesn't really think this makes a lot of sense but it is something that seems to be doing rounds in the geopolitical but again this is essentially the Donroe Doctrine (Donald's version of Monroe Doctrine), it doesn't need to make sense.
• The clear winners of this invasion seem to be
  • China, where they are able to prove their energy independence and with US pivoting out of Asia
  • Iran, having more dominant role in the Strait of Hormuz
  • With clear losers being Gulf countries
  • It is unclear if Israel and US are gaining or losing from this war

Context:

• The US is alleging that one of ASML's EUV lithography machines have made its way to China, despite the technology being banned for export since the first Trump Trade war in 2019.
• ASML has denied this, they stress that they are following the American protocols and say none of their EUV products are in China. There has been no evidence of what the Americans are accusing.
• The Dutch government is not currently investigating ASML for a breach of American protocols.
• Experts in the industry also think such a technology reaching China is unlikely but think there are two explanations for this
  • Leaked EUV components by suppliers or third parties and
  • Older DUV machines and services being frankensteined into a functioning EUV prototype.
• The other thing is that China has also been using multi patterning on DUV machines to make 7nm chips and this has alarmed the US.
• Which is what is fueling the US's new tools:
  • Pax Silica, an alliance of allied nations on AI supply chains
  • MATCH Act, an new US protocol that would restrict DUV servicing to China and pressure allies to match US export controls or get penalized.
• This is important because the Netherlands currently opposes the MATCH Act's extraterritorial reach. They are also pointing out the hypocrisy that on one hand the US is limiting Europe's AI exports to China but are also selling Nvidia H200 chips to China.
• Netherlands essentially fears that they are caught in the middle again of another US China rivalry where they lose lose. Like how last year when under US's BIS List Protocol, they decided to seize ownership of a Chinese owned Netherlands Chip Company which caused tensions with China.

Super concise article:

BEIJING, July 3 (Reuters) - Alibaba (9988.HK), will ​ban employees from ‌using Claude Code in ​workspace environments ​from July 10 due ⁠to ​alleged security risks ​involving embedded backdoors, a source familiar ​with ​the matter said.

Alibaba did ‌not ⁠immediately respond to a request for ​comment.

The ​move ⁠was previously reported ​by Chinese ​financial ⁠news outlet Yicai.

---

Advanced Context because that's one concise boy:

• Alibaba is said to ban employees from using Claude Code in workspace environments starting July 10, because of a potential backdoor.
• This claim comes from actually a user post that showed that since version 2.1.91, Claude Code started secretly checking users' information without them knowing and even hiding the attempt. [See below comment for more information]
  • The user explained that program developers such as himself are giving Claude Code full filesystem and shell access to do their job.
  • How Claude's opaque handling of this breaches user trust.
  • How if Claude is currently doing this, there is no telling what they may do in the future.
  • "Developers like me give Claude Code full filesystem and significant shell access so it can do its job. But this also means nothing is stopping Anthropic from exploiting it for full remote code execution on your system. Today it's a timezone check. Tomorrow, it could be system sabotage or data exfiltration." -user
• Anthropic actually started doing this to start tracking Chinese usage attempts of Claude,
• A member of the Claude Code team, Thariq, stated on social media that the mechanism was intended to combat account sales and model distillation, and that it would be removed in the next release. It being active for at least 3 months.

Context:

• Two Japanese nationals were detained in Dalian in May on suspicion of smuggling export-restricted goods tied to rare earths.
• One detainee is believed to be an employee of a major Japanese electronics maker, who tried to export rare-earth items by falsely labeling them as exempt.
• Japan has confirmed the detentions does not want to divulge further details, citing privacy reasons.

Additional Context:

• This comes as China has tightened dual-use export controls on Japan-bound goods (in this case related to rare earths) back in January and then again in late February amid Takaichi's comments of Japan's involvement in a Taiwan-Japan war.
• In early June, Donald Trump tried to intervene by asking that China remove all restrictions of rare earth exports to Japan.
  • China said no and reaffirmed that all applicable dual use exports will continue to be be restricted.
• In Japan Languages Nikkei (Article: 中国、富士電機社員の拘束事件　背景にレアアース規制とモーター生産) they have confirmed that the two Japanese nationals worked for Fuji Electrics, which manufactured servo motors.
  • It is mentioned that Fuji Electric may have engaged in a practice of [中国アッシー] or [China Assembly]
  • A practice that is now being explored, where manufacturers try to skirt around the rare earth restrictions by assembling a fake or unnecessary product, export it as civilian use and then disassemble it in Japan for its real intended use.
  • It is very likely China will view this [China Assembly] life hack as an act of smuggling.

Excerpts from the article:

• The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus yesterday demanded a cross-ministry meeting to protect Taiwanese fishing rights
• Japan and the Philippines last month said they would begin talks to delimit the maritime boundaries of their respective EEZs and continental shelves
• Japanese news media have reported that a treaty between Tokyo and Manila would not be binding on a third party, thus removing the need to consult with Taiwan
• Only the KMT and TPP caucuses called on the Legislative Yuan to pass a resolution urging the foreign ministry to take a firm stance with Japan and the Philippines, protest their actions, and ensure that any negotiations over Taiwan’s EEZ boundaries include Taipei to safeguard national sovereignty.
• DPP said when neighboring countries’ EEZs overlap, the international practice is to set disputes aside and pursue joint development agreements in areas of significant overlap.
• The DPP led foreign affairs ministry has held talks with Japan and the Philippines on the matter, he said, adding that the government makes its position on sovereignty issues clear when needed.
• The DPP foreign ministry has instructed Taiwan’s overseas missions to closely monitor the negotiations and related developments, adding that it has conveyed Taiwan’s concerns through official channels to safeguard its sovereignty and maritime rights.
• At present, there is no set schedule for talks between Japan and the Philippines

Context:

• The DPP came out with a new Poll results days after an independent poll conducted by TVBS was published earlier this month.
• TVBS's poll published on the 14th of May showed a 38% approval rating.
• Meanwhile DPP's showed an incredible recovery of 56% approval rating.
• If DDP's poll is correct, Lai Ching Te has become more popular than Tsai Ing Wen when she finished her two-terms.

Summary

• According to the partisan poll, President Lai holds a 56.4% approval and 51.8% trust rating.
• All eight major Lai administration policies scored above 50% satisfaction.
• Cross-strait and defense-related policies scoring in the 54–60% range.
• The poll was conducted by the DPP's own polling center.