
74K PQP (DEN) - GS Odds?
I’m expecting to end the year with about 74K PQP, all United metal (excluding credit card PQP), with 5 international Polaris round trips. Denver based. What do you think my odds are of hitting GS?

I’m expecting to end the year with about 74K PQP, all United metal (excluding credit card PQP), with 5 international Polaris round trips. Denver based. What do you think my odds are of hitting GS?
I take 75 to 100 flights a year. I try to get work done on as many as I can, and the gap between a Starlink flight and "dial-up in the sky" flight is staggering. On one I can run a normal workday, on the next I basically just resort to typing up a lot of notes and try to text or Slack people to let apologize for not being able to respond to their messages because my wifi sucks.
unitedstarlinktracker.com is what got me excited. This guy named martinamps was tracking which United planes actually had Starlink. What it did not give me was that knowledge when I was booking a flight because flight tail numbers only show up two or three days out.
So I built a probability model on the tail and route history, keep it fed from that tracker (and others like it now), and wrote a Chrome extension that lays the number on the booking tools I already use.
It started as my personal United problem. It now does per-flight next-gen odds where public tail trackers exist, and a fleet-wide Streaming figure for other airlines so I do not mix “this tail has Starlink” with “this airline’s wifi can do video.” If I do not have evidence, it stays unknown (but I don't call it 0% just because I don't know).
I am still expanding the booking surfaces and cleaning up the site. If a row looks wrong, I want to hear it: https://wifiodds.com/feedback
The extension is free and it stays free, I am not selling anything. I wanted my own flights to be more usable and I am sharing what I built and use (I'm 7 for 8 getting Starlink in the last few weeks!).
I am not a software engineer, but I studied computer science so I know enough to be dangerous. I spend my days as a business executive, nights are vibe coding and amateur watchmaking.
Site and method: https://wifiodds.com/ (Chrome Extension link from the site). Looking forward to your feedback and hopefully helping more people get Starlink, or at least Streaming, wifi.
I got tired of re-explaining to friends how transferable points work, so I built Points & Prompts: https://pointsandprompts.com
Before I share it anywhere else, I'd like people who actually know this space to tear it apart.
What's on it:
- A transfer map for the six transferable currencies (Amex, Chase, Citi, Capital One, Bilt, Wells Fargo): where each one goes, where it can't go, and the best and worst uses. Includes this year's changes, like Chase to Hyatt going 4:3 on Preferred/Ink and the Alaska/Hawaiian "Atmos" merger.
- Point valuations pulled live from AwardWallet's public values API. Their numbers, attributed, based on real member bookings.
- A reference covering 33 airline and hotel programs: sweet spots, pricing models, surcharges, and which bank points feed each one.
- A "master prompt generator," which is where the name comes from. You describe the trip and optionally your balances, and it writes a detailed prompt to paste into Claude or ChatGPT. The prompt bakes in the actual transfer rules so the AI doesn't invent partners that don't exist. Balances never leave your browser. No accounts, no tracking, no affiliate links.
How it's built, since someone will ask: one static HTML file on GitHub, auto-deployed by Netlify. I built it with heavy AI assistance (Claude did most of the code), then checked the partner tables against AwardWallet's guides and the banks' own transfer pages. Valuations update themselves through the API. Partner data is a manual edit when programs change.
What I'd love from this sub:
It's free, there's no monetization, and I mainly want it to be accurate.
I got tired of re-explaining to friends how transferable points work, so I built Points & Prompts: https://pointsandprompts.com
Before I share it anywhere else, I'd like people who actually know this space to tear it apart.
What's on it:
How it's built, since someone will ask: one static HTML file on GitHub, auto-deployed by Netlify. I built it with heavy AI assistance (Claude did most of the code), then checked the partner tables against AwardWallet's guides and the banks' own transfer pages. Valuations update themselves through the API. Partner data is a manual edit when programs change.
What I'd love from this sub:
It's free, there's no monetization, and I mainly want it to be accurate.
I went down a rabbit hole on this after a friend had a Sub lifted out of a hotel room and found out the hard way what his homeowners policy actually pays. Short answer: about $1,500. Here's everything I wish he'd known. US-focused, no affiliation with any company below, no referral links.
The two ways to insure a watch
1. Through your home/renters policy. Your standard policy does cover jewelry and watches, but theft has a special sublimit, and the industry-standard number is about $1,500 total, not per item. That's straight from the Insurance Information Institute. You can raise it with a rider, or "schedule" the watch on a floater at an appraised value.
2. A standalone watch/jewelry policy. A separate policy that only covers the watch. Usually $0 deductible, worldwide, and covers accidental loss and mysterious disappearance, which the base home policy generally won't.
The scheduled-vs-standalone question is the real one, and I'll come back to why I lean standalone.
Real 2025-26 rates, not "it depends"
The rule of thumb every carrier repeats is 1-2% of insured value per year. Jewelers Mutual says so on their own pricing page.
Professional Watches shopped six carriers with the same inputs, a $5,000 insured value, Denver zip code, in mid-2025:
Carrier |Annual premium |Payout style
Zillion |$56 |Replacement watch, up to 125% of insured value
Lavalier |$63 |Repair/replace
Wax Collect (Chubb) |$73 |Cash, up to 150% of insured value
Hodinkee (Chubb) |$73 |Cash, up to 150%
BriteCo |$60-96 |Cash/replacement
Jewelers Mutual |$89-96 |Repair or replace So roughly $60-100/yr on a $5k watch, and it scales. A $30k Daytona is realistically $300-600/yr depending on your zip. Your zip matters a lot, because rating is driven by local theft data.
Two things from that comparison worth knowing before you waste an afternoon:
The myths, ranked by how expensive they are
"My homeowners covers it." It covers about $1,500 of theft, your deductible eats part of that, and it likely excludes mysterious disappearance. Watch falls off your wrist at a bar and is never seen again? That's not theft, and that's the most common way people actually lose watches.
"So I'll just schedule it on my home policy, same thing." Not the same thing, and this is the one nobody thinks about. A scheduled jewelry claim is a homeowners claim. It gets reported to loss-history databases (CLUE, A-Plus, PILR), sits there for about seven years, and can raise your home premium or get you non-renewed. Losing a $9k watch and then losing your homeowners rate for seven years is a bad trade. Standalone specialty policies mostly don't touch your home claims history.
"I'm covered worldwide, it says so." Mostly true for specialty policies, and worth actually reading anyway. The gaps that bite people are the situational exclusions, not the geographic ones. Theft from an unattended vehicle is the classic carve-out. Hold baggage is another. If you travel with watches, ask the carrier point blank about the rental car, the hotel room, the stowed bag, the gym locker. Get the answer in writing.
"My watch appreciates, so my coverage goes up with it." No. You are covered for the number you declared, plus whatever appreciation buffer the policy has. Zillion's is 125%. Chubb's collector programs go to 150%. That buffer exists because watch prices move, and it is a cap, not a promise. If you insured a Nautilus at 2019 retail, that buffer is nowhere near enough today. Jewelers Mutual recommends re-appraising every two years. Do it. Or at minimum, log into your policy and bump the insured value when the market moves.
"Payout is payout." Cash vs replacement is a real fork. The Chubb-backed programs (Wax Collect, Hodinkee) pay cash at the insured value, which is what you want for a discontinued or hard-to-source reference, because you control the hunt. Jewelers Mutual and Zillion source a replacement, which is fine for a current-production Speedmaster and frustrating if your piece hasn't been made since 2011. Pick based on what's in your box.
"$0 deductible is always better." It's the default on most specialty policies, and you can trade it for a lower premium. If you'd never file a claim under $500 anyway, take the deductible and pocket the difference.
"The manufacturer's warranty has me covered." Warranties cover defects. They do not cover theft, loss, or you smashing the crystal on a door frame.
How to actually negotiate this
Insurance people don't haggle like a jeweler, but the rate has levers. Pull them:
The questions I would ask before you sign
Do this today (free)
Photograph every watch, both sides, and photograph the serial and reference numbers. Save the receipts and warranty cards somewhere in the cloud. Keep a simple spreadsheet with current market value. Without the serial, a police report is nearly useless and a claim gets slow and painful.
I'm not a broker and none of this is advice on your specific policy. Read your actual policy language, because that's the document that pays or doesn't.
So what does everyone here actually do? Standalone, scheduled on the home policy, or riding bare and hoping? And has anyone actually filed a watch claim? I'd like to hear how the payout compared to what the policy promised.
[WTS] [US] Shipping only to the US (lower 48).
All watches working and tested before shipping. I accept Zelle, PayPal F&F, and Venmo
==============================
⭐️ Once scanned and shipped, I am no longer responsible for package including damages, loss, seizures, etc. no refunds/returns, broken, not working, DOA’s nor warranties. No warranties. Keep in mind, these are REPLICA watches. ⭐️
Often times automatic movements may arrive stopped during shipping, which is completely normal (power reserve is typically 2 to 3 days). Most of the time, the watch simply needs to be properly wound and worn for it to naturally build power reserve and start running smoothly again. A gentle shake or one firm tap of the watch against the palm of your hand will usually restart the balance (the engine of the watch).
[WTS] [US] Shipping only to the US (lower 48h).
Patek Philippe Aquanaut Advanced Research Travel Time - Reference: 5650G-001 - Very Rare - UNWORN / UNCUT - $750
Patek Philippe Aquanaut Travel Time - Reference: 5164R-001 - Rare - ZF - UNWORN / UNCUT - $650
Patek Philippe Nautilus - Reference: 5712R - PPF Factory - Lightly Worn - JAWS Plated - $750
Patek Philippe Calatrava Travel Time 24-Hour Display - Reference: 5224R-001 - GRF - Worn Once - JAWS Plated - $550
All watches ship UPS 2nd Day Air. I accept Zelle, PayPal F&F, and Venmo
For Sale are 4 ZF Vacheron Constantin (VC) Overseas 4500V’s. All are lightly used, have been plated, and are in great condition. UPS 2nd Day Air shipping included, US Only. PayPal F&F, Venmo, and Zelle
Crossposting from my original post that bananas on the Rolex subreddit, adding some more details and insights from the past week.
Last Saturday, the 20th of June, I was in Amsterdam watching the Netherlands vs Sweden World Cup Match with some old mates (I lived in Amsterdam for several years about a decade ago). A bit after the match ended I started walking back to my hotel, the Okura, and when I was almost there I saw a guy passed out on the ground. I went over to help him, as I’ve done before many times in Amsterdam from over zealous stag partygoers, and shortly after I approached him I saw out of the corner of my eye another man approaching. I assumed he was coming to assist, but when he got to us he instantly grabbed my Rolex GMT Master II “Batgirl” and started pulling as hard as he could. The moment he grabbed me I came up from my kneeled position and was fortunately able to shove him away; my watch had the Easylink out because it was hot and humid, so it was painfully slipping off my wrist. He lunged back toward me and I punched him in the face hard enough that he instantly hit the ground. I stepped back, he got himself sorted and slowly back to his feet, and he then ran off.
What happened to the “passed out” guy?
Absolutely no clue. People on the main thread have assumed the guy on ground was in on it as this is apparently a tactic used. I have no idea what happened to him; this initial tussle, punch, and retreat happened in mere seconds. When I saw the attacker run off I started toward my hotel and I saw motion off to another direction hoping it might be the police or a concerned citizen, but the person was rounding a corner in the dark (around midnight). The guy that had been passed out on the ground, who had just come to whenever I approached him and shook him, was gone.
Don’t you know you can’t wear nice watches in X city?
I’ve been doing it for decades without issue, but this time I was dumb because I was in a polo and that polished metal was catching every ray of light from the street lamps. We shouldn’t be attacked, but we have to be more careful.
Did I contact the police?
No, but I probably should have. I had a flight the next morning back to London and I didn’t want to deal with the process; the guys were fine and I still had (and have) my watch. My car was stolen when I lived in Amsterdam and the police didn’t investigate, they said they didn’t have the man power and the recovery rate was low. Fortunately, my insurance company found it in a shipping container before it left the dock.
I was walking back to my hotel in Amsterdam last night after the Dutch Sweden World Cup match and a guy attempted to steal my Batgirl. There was a young British lad passed out on the ground who I was trying to help get sorted, when some other guy came up and I thought he was going to assist me. He all of the sudden grabs my wrist and tried to rip my watch off. If he had a knife or other weapon I would have just handed it over, but he didn’t appear armed. I recoiled when he tried to rip it off my wrist, and then he tried to lunge again so I punched him once and he ran off. Be safe out there!