u/Interesting-Gas2572

Well, this stock was trading $840 at the top, which indicates 99.99% dropdown from ATH and its IPO was well over $100. And back then, the trading volume was between 2.000 and 15.000 shares a day. It could've been way worse for you. Get over it and wait for commercialization.

I was playing BJ today, and I got mispaid TWICE during a ~2 hour session. The first mispay was at $25 bet so I wanted to be nice towards the dealer and also not draw attention and informed about the mispay. But the second bet was at $600 (300 bet doubled). I had 17 (16+A) and I guess the dealer confused A as 4 because he said "20" and paid me on a losing hand (he drew 19).

I just left the casino for a night and probably will not come back for a week or so. But I wonder how do you react to mispays? Did you ever had a situation where you got mispaid, left and came back few days after and was asked to pay the money back? I left so quickly that if they check cameras it will be rather obvious that I knew about the mispay 😂

Did you even read the update? No, it's NOT the same.

At a first glance, it might seem all the ranked stickers are around 75% cheaper than normal stickers, BUT:

1. They are literally squared and look way worse compared to the circled ones. They don't even fit on most skins. Yeah, the holo effect is the same, but it doesn't matter if the sticker itself is ugly.
2. Price of one depends on the other. So, if people start buying the ranked stickers, regular circled stickers WILL go up as well.
3. We've already had "champion" stickers before, and they are still cheaper than normal ones. Check ropz champion vs regular ropz from austin 2025 - almost 50% cheaper. So, it's nothing new.

To all those people saying this is sale and the cologne investors are screwed, no, we are actually fine and this is perfect news, basically confirming that there is no discount. Only ones that are screwed are those who hold inflated stickers, like donk or falcons. But for those who hold regular team stickers or autographs, that is a perfect news.

My personal guess is 4%, to around $370-ish.

I mean, it's a cycle that no matter how good earnings are, this stock is down. The question is how much.

European roulette (single 0, 37 numbers total)

I wanted to see how much money you really need to be successful at Martingale strategy, so I simulated over 100 million roulette spins to reflect whether this strategy is even possible to use long-term for an average user.

The average speed of a traditional casino roulette is somewhere between 25 and 60 spins per hour. Let's say the average would be 45 spins per hour.

So, my simulation represents 2.222.222 hours or 92.592 days or 253 years of a single roulette table. I would say the sample therefore seems representative.

Y'all probably heard the phrase the house always wins. Can we beat the house and how much money do we need? Let's check! Results under:

Number of spins: 100.001.024

Black: 48 704 765 (48,70%)

Red: 48 402 092 (48,40%)

Green (single): 3 894 167 (2,9%)

By the numbers it looks like we have gotten pretty close to the statistical outcome, which should represent 48,64% for black/red and 2,70% for green.

The three longest series:

1. Black (26 in a row! A mathematical chance for that outcome was ~0.00000000000000127%)

2. Red (17 in a row)

3. Red (13 in a row)

So, imagine you are on a table without limits. You start with a dollar. How much money you'd need to survive the longest streak?

You play red. The longest series of black hits. At the fourth spin, you still feel calm because your bet is still small ($8). At the nineth black in a row you start feeling worried, because your next bet is $1,024. You keep going.

26th bet - you put $33,554,432

27th bet - $67,108,864. Outcome is 3 red! Finally! You have risked $67 million dollars just to be a dollar positive.

If this post doesn't prove to you that martingale is the dumbest strategy, I don't know what will.

Global leader in lottery technology with long-term government contracts and recurring cash flows. The company is currently trading at $10.50 a share, indicating ~35-45% below the average price target (~$16 vs. ~$10.5 today).

The company is currently trading at 13 P/E, and pays 8% dividend yield, while management continues share buybacks (which didn't seem to have an impact on stock price yet, despite last buyback was in June 2026).

Trading at a discount compared to gaming peers on P/E and P/S despite similar profitability.

This stock is is sitting near 52-week lows, which could represent a long-term support zone if earnings stabilize.

A lot is going to matter on the nearest financial report that takes place at 4 Aug.

I have never seen a single post about $BRSL, which I find interesting and wanted to share my thought. It's not a financial advisement, but rather my personal opinion. I'm currently owning BRSL as around 7% of my portfolio.

So, I am visiting Uzbekistan soon and will need to go to the gym around 3-4 times during my entire 2-week trip.

I have contacted three gyms nearby my hotel and they are all charging 200.000-300.000 sums ($15-$25) for a single entry. To me, it sounds pretty expensive, as I am originating from the US where the wages are definetly higher, and I pay $100 for a month pass. $25 for a single visit sounds pretty expensive.

Am I just getting tourist prices or is that normal? Could you maybe give some reccomendations for nearby Tashkent Central Station?

Dreams & Nigtmares case was added at January 18, 2022, and despite 4 years and 7 months, it is still in active drop pool, making it the longest staying case in history.

For instance, the drop rotation of second longest case (Recoil) was from July 1, 2022 to March 11, 2026. D&N surpassed recoil by 4 months now, and is still staying with us, probably for few more months at least.

Valve finally rotated armory a few days ago (3 month last chance BTW), so I don't think valve is going to add even more skins by switching active drop pool in the upcoming weeks, it's either going to be just before Singapore major (Q3/Q4 of 2026) or even later on. In fact, we might see D&N being the first case ever to be in rotation for more than 5 years.

Back then, cases used to be in active drop pool rotation for around a year, or even less (the Chroma Case was moved to rare drop pool after just 9 months for instance!). Now we have 4/5 year rotation cycles.

Honestly, it's not a surprise that the whole market is in bear mode for months with lows exceeding even 50% for some skins. Valve gives less and less attention to the market, lengthening the drop cycles and giving even less updates. They even hate our money now.

And that's why it crashed. Sorry everyone.

I have around 400 trading cards from different game, all for 0.03-0.10 cents range. I don't want to sell on SCM as the fees is mainly a scam, I would pay 70% fee for this low class items.

Is there a way to sell/trade trading cards without paying steam scam market 70% fee?

I fly a lot for work (mostly within EU), and have accumulated over 80.000 miles so far.

I know that Lufthansa Group with its dynamic pricing has sometimes very good flight prices, like 1.000 miles for OW and some tax. I even found flight from WAW to ICN for 900 miles and 220€ tax (OW) some time ago.

Is there a forum where people share their findings, or is there a way to search a flight "to anywhere" and browse options?

It's crazy to me how this thread is obsessed with sticker tradeup, which is not likely to happen in my opinion, but completely forgot (or don't want) to focus on charm tradeups, which are more likely - charm value is already pretty close to 10:1.

Just late-evening speculations.

In 1 month, listings of rare drop pool cases have increased by 10-25%. For fracture cases, the amount of listed cases on SCM was around 120k, and now it is 160k. For other cases, such as recoils, prismas, the increase was also significant.

Price crashed 5-20% depending on a case, but the reason is clear to me - skins gone down quite significantly whilst cases were fairly stable. The volume rate seems unchanged.

Really curious why people panic sell cases, and cannot think of a reason. Yes, there is uncertanity about the future of cases, but it's nothing new - that was a thing for a good few months now.

Am I missing something?

Me and my team roughly won around 10.000 units on roulette. It wasn't luck, it wasn't cheating but mathematical advantage. Now that they've removed this game anyways, I want to share how we did it.

In my local casino there is (well, was) an electronic roulette table (with real ball and a wheel) with "Jackpot" system.

The Jackpot was a pre-selected, random number. Number was chosen once and remained the same every spin, until it was drawn. Jackpot award varied, but it's between 2000 units and 5.000 units, it started from 2000 units and grew by 0.5 each losing spin (I changed my local currency to units, to make it simpler). The number is unknown, so you don't know which number the Jackpot is, until it's drawn.

To qualify for the jackpot:

- you need to bet only one number

- minimum bet is 10 units

- you need to have the highest bet at the table for the specific number to win. If someone bets on the number higher when its drawn, they win and you get nothing.

I calculated and the overall roulette EV was positive when playing for jackpot. But I had no idea how to maximize my chances.

On average, it should take about 156 spins to see every number on a European roulette wheel at least once.

From here, it looked too good to be true, and it was. There was a catch:

I could play only one number, so only 2.7% of the wheel was covered. Each time the jackpot was drawn, and nobody bets on it, it just resets to a different number. With 156 spins on average to draw all numbers and the fact that I'd only cover 2,7% of wheel, it looked like the statistical chance for me to get the jackpot was 1 in 5777 spins.

However, I decided to give it a try, mainly for fun.

First, second and third time, I came alone. I sat from around 4:00 am until the morning traffic arrived (8:00-9:00 am). As expected, I didn't hit any jackpot. A lot of times however the jackpot was drawn, but it wasn't the number I was betting on, so it just kept re-rolling to a different one.

I gave up for some time, but then I realised something. If I come with friends, we could just take the whole table and cover 6 numbers instead of one. It looked like by doing that, we should statistically get a jackpot each 962 spins. We would share the pool, but it still looked good on paper:

962 spins = 9620 units

On average, we should win back 9360 units + the jackpot. Even if it was "only" 2000 units, it's still +1740 units profit, aka 290 units shared per person.

I found a few of my unemployed friends and we did this for some time. We went 3 or 4 times without any success. The last attempt however was successful. We hit the jackpot after around 2 hours of playing. The pool was already over 4.000, making a nice number. We've made a month break and came back. This time, it took us 3 different days to attempt and we hit the jackpot again. Pool was smaller, but still good enough to be called a profit.

Third time was the last one, as actually casino already investigated and refused to pay us the third time. They called the gaming commission and we were all interrogated. After our case was resolved, casino was ordered to pay us money, as we weren't cheating but rather found a loophole that (I assume) wasn't discovered by anyone previously. So they did and removed the game completely.

It was not a life-changing money whatsoever, as 10.000 units equal to around 3.000 USD, but still - I feel damn proud of myself that I've managed to win over the house and break the roulette without cheating.

I'm pretty sure that with the current system, we are not going to see a sticker sale. My arguments:

1. Despite lower sticker sales, remember that when capsules exist, valve was getting 1 USD pre-sale and 0.25 USD past-sale for single capsule sold. Now with the dynamic pricing, and the fact you buy stickers directly from valve, they can get dozens (or even hundreds) dollars from single sale. Take a look at the donk gold, which was selling for $700 for some time. One single sticker gave Valve as much money as 2.400 capsules.
2. Souvenir tradeups are VERY popular among community. And valve makes a very nice money off those trade-ups.

I don't have time to check all skins, but according to CSFloat DB:

- AWP Dragon Lore: +76 new souvenirs since tradeup

- M4 Imminent Danger: +398 new souvenirs

-M4 Nitro: +416 new souvenirs

For lower tier skins, the numbers are even bigger. Single covert souvenir used to cost $50-80 to craft, now after prices inflated, it costs $250-450 depending on match. For a single skin.

Overall, there is currently 46,460,000 Souvenir Items. I checked the CSF Database shortly after the announce of Cologne shop and the amount was around 34.000.000. People already crafted ~9 million new souvenir skins, and I assume a lot of players will continue to craft souvenirs on final matches.

3. Y'all forgot there are different mechanisms to boost sales other than discount. In my opinion, Valve will announce "last chance" update to let people know that it's last chance to claim stickers, similiar to what they did in Armory. And after that, it will be even more obvious that there is no sale, causing people to rush and panic buy stickers.

My own analysis, thought might be helpful to someone.

If you own some old and expensive souvenirs (compared to the same, non-souv skins), you'd want to sell them now, before all the newly crafted souvenirs flood the market.

The Glock-18 Candy Apple for an example costs $200 for souvenir FN. For normal, non-souvenir FN, the price only costs $4. For an additional $13 you can convert it into souvenir. $17 vs $200.

In a week, people will flood the markst with newly crafted souvenirs for cheap, causing the prices to crash.

If you check recent sales for skins like glock mentioned above, you'll see the volume in the recent week has gone up significantly, meaning a lot of people want to profit by flipping newly crafted souvenirs for an overpay.

Also, review your buy orders if you have some for such skins - might not be the best time to try and buy them.

I occasionally watch CS2 YouTubers like Heyzeus and Anomaly. I'm not a huge fan, more likely videos are easy to throw on while eating dinner.

What's been crazy to watch since the knife trade-up update is how much panic they've been fueling. Every other video seems to be clickbait claiming the market is dead, cases are finished, or some other dramatic prediction (and pure speculation BTW)

The funny part is that Anomaly is still buying skins after repeatedly saying the market is over. 😂 I mean, who wouldn't buy skins at around 85% buff prices? That's practically free money.

At this point, the only CS2 YouTubers I really think are worth watching are Ohne and Sparkles. They're some of the few-left creators who don't constantly push panic driven content about the market.