Most of the smartest people I know will never start anything of their own.
I think it's because smart people are really good at seeing exactly how something fails before it starts and entrepreneurship requires you to do the thing anyway.
I started my company with a level of ignorance that I now recognize as a genuine asset. I didn't know enough to be properly scared. I just thought the problem was real and started talking to people who had it by the time I understood the actual risk I was already too far in to quit.
The people I know who are objectively more talented than me ran the full analysis first. probability of success, opportunity cost, reputational risk if it fails publicly, how long runway actually needs to be to feel safe. they weren't wrong about any of it, the math genuinely doesn't look great.
but the math assumes you need certainty before you move and you don't
the thing is that the information you need to make a confident decision only exists on the other side of starting, you cannot think your way to it from the outside.
average people sometimes win just by being willing to look stupid in public for long enough
which sounds like an insult but I mean it as the most honest thing I know about