The case for the nuggets as contenders
Call me an idiot or a homer but I think this year's team(assuming we retain P Wat) and if we're healthy is almost perfectly constructed to complement Jokic. I know that's a lot of ifs but which contender doesn't have those?
-OKC's future also heavily relies on IF Jalen Williams can stay healthy and IF chet can finally beat his mental demons against Wemby.
-Spurs' future heavily depends on the health of a 7'6 big
-Knicks contention heavily depends on how much losing their backup big could hurt them since Towns has the worst foul discipline in the league.
Look at how the roster is constructed, Objectively it has very little weaknesses on paper:
-Jamal Murray has the best 2 man game and chemistry with Jokic of any duo in the league.
- AG is one of the most versatile defenders in the league and would be a perennial all defense selection if he was healthy, Braun is a solid POA defender, Alpha Diallo was just the Euroleague DPOY, Spencer Jones, Peyton Watson and Cam Johnson are all solid wing defenders. Joerger is a solid defensive coach that coached the grit and grind grizz for several years. This roster has a better construction defensively compared to last year to complement Jokic's weakness at protecting the rim.
- The roster has 8 proven ~40% 3P shooters. This is why losing THJ won't hurt nearly as much as everyone seems to think it will, his abilities were largely redundant with the rest of the roster.
The only real weakness on paper is the lack of a backup C but Jokic has won a chip with DJ as a backup C so it isn't nearly as big a weakness compared to other teams.
Compare this to some of the other teams that have better odds,
-76ers have an abysmal defense, Jaylen Brown and Lebron are two of the worst offball defenders in the league, Tyrese Maxey is average at best, and Embiid has objectively been a worse defender than Jokic since his knee got obliterated the only good defenders on their roster are Edgecombe and Dean Wade. Their starting 5 also entirely consists of average and below average 3 point shooters. There is no rational argument for why they should be above the nuggets and the reason is entirely hype.
-The raptors have poeltl as their starting C and their floor general is Immanuel Quickley.
- The celtics front court is paper thin
- The pistons lack a secondary creator and their shooting is mediocre at best.
I'm not saying we're a tier 1 contender on the level of the spurs okc or knicks, but IMO we should be the 4th best team on paper after those 3.
Am I wrong for thinking that?