u/Tallwhitedude123

After their updated guidance on investor day last week what’s not to love? 58% annualized revenue growth from now to 2030 at the midpoint 😮 And the reason I like the stock now is because NONE OF THIS IS PRICED IN. I say let the people keep talking about an AI bubble and I say they lack the fundamental understanding of what this all is: THE BIGGEST ARMS RACE IN HUMAN HISTORY!

Now listen, I like others stocks as well but in my opinion MRVL is at or the near the top for likely being a top performing investment from now to 2030. I’m talking 300%+ gains. The AI pessimism is actually healthy for a bull market also. Despite bond yields being at 20yr+ highs I continue to think AI stocks outperform dramatically. Bond yields have actually hurt the broader market though. Look at sectors outside of tech and many are languishing. People will not sell the huge growth happening in AI stocks to rotate into a bond with a 5% yield. Instead they sell stocks like PEP, HSY, etc with very low, unappealing growth.

It’s really simple. The high court of the Philippines ruled in 2024 that divorces granted for foreigners who file for divorce in their home countries will be accepted within the Philippines. In practice, what this means is that expats who are married to Filipinos within the Philippines (or outside the Philippines) can divorce their Filipino spouse in their home country, take the papers back to the Philippines and the divorce will be recognized for both foreigner and Filipino in the Philippines.

Many are unaware of this because the headline most people read is that “The Philippines is the only nation in the world where divorce is illegal besides the Vatican”. Yes, this is true but applies to Filipinos married to other Filipinos. Also, the foreigner cannot file for divorce within the Philippines. They must do so in their home country.

Will divorce one day be legalized for ALL Filipinos? Or will single mothers have to continue to suffer being legally married to a man she’s been separated from for years 🤔

It’s gets no better as time passes either but only gets worse because as the years pass in 365 year maybe only a handful of days out of that year will provide relief via a typhoon or some other LPA system. Air con as they call in the PH? Very expensive to run in the entire house because the PH has some of the most expensive electricity rates in all of Asia. I always heard people say Bangkok was hot, sticky and humid. After living in the PH I felt NO HUMIDITY in Bangkok. No stickiness on my skin whatsoever and could were thicker fabric shirts without sweating.

What’s my point? You might be like me. When I first came to the PH I said, “I can tolerate this”. Yes, I can but after years of it it gets OLD. You want some relief from the never ending sticky humidity.

Btw, I was born in raised in one of the most humid states in the US. It don’t even come close to the humidity in the PH primarily because in the PH IT NEVER ENDS 😵

Also, I see expats here sweating like pigs EVERYDAY with their face glistening from the sweat.

Edit: I’m NORMAL BMI. Not even close to being fat or overweight

This is something I NEVER thought of as an American until I came to the Philippines. All this “tampo” guys here about? It’s largely because we, as foreigners, are DIRECT when talking to people. We don’t consider it like this but for Filipinos they are not direct like us when communicating. The Filipinos are the same actually. For me it’s a MAJOR CULTURAL OBSTACLE because communication is key. The people in the Philippines are just too sensitive. I can talk with Americans, Europeans, other foreigners and have no issue. Talk same way with Filipina and she shuts down immediately.

Most can’t handle the directness. It’s something to do with the culture and how they communicate. For me I don’t understand it and I quit trying to understand it. I just put this here because I know many expats who do nothing but fight all day and night with their Filipina gf/wife. No, they are not telling guys this on social media. It’s all rainbows and unicorns according to most people 🤷🏻‍♂️

Keep this in mind when you view these places or are thinking these are examples of how the Philippines is progressing. No. Anything the government “maintains” in 99% of the Philippines looks like trash. The places like BGC, IT Park are just small bubbles that are privately maintained by Ayala Land as well as some other major Philippines companies. So once you leave these bubble areas and are back into an area maintained by the government things go down very quickly.

In contrast, a place like Bangkok looks nice in 95% of areas. The government there maintains roads and sidewalks. In other words, it does its job.

I mention this because seek out this sub looking for advice about possibly moving to the Philippines. Many are unaware that these places like BGC only look nice because they are privately maintained. None of it is the result of a functional government. This is important to understand because bad government can negatively affect your life in ways you don’t understand until you live there.

It’s really simple. The price of everything is SKY HIGH for the average Filipino, the peso at record lows and foreigners are the EASY TARGET because we have no means legally of self defense in the Philippines.

My suggestion to all foreigners in the Philippines now: dress like TRASH. Keep a VERY LOW PROFILE. I’m not sure how in touch with the increased struggles of Filipinos the average foreigner. For Filipinos, INFLATION is up huge this year. They were already struggling before and now they have been pushed to the breaking point.

Just a day ago, in Dumaguete, an American and his wife were shot dead after THREE FILIPINOS broke into their house at night. This is not an isolated crime. Crime in Dumaguete against foreigners has been on the rise as the word has long been out that Dumaguete is a hub for foreigners.

This is a time that ALL EXPATS need to come together. I genuinely mean this, I don’t want any fellow expat getting hurt. Also, let’s be more considerate of the hardships that Filipinos are facing now in their country. A simile and simple positive, friendly gestures go along way in my opinion to establishing good will among many.

Just to add, many Filipinos are struggling while they see foreigners “living the good life”. Now some Filipinos are acting out on this. It’s not really surprising that any of this is happening…

Yall stay safe!

This is what I’m seeing very often now. The logic is basic. It’s easier to find a woman in the Philippines compared to Thailand or Vietnam. You don’t want to stay in the Philippines because the quality of life is poor. You take her back to the US, she changes and then divorces you to be with a better man. So the solution: Move to either Thailand or Vietnam, both considered to have substantially better infrastructure and quality of life as compared to Philippines with little threat of your Filipina being negatively influenced by the locals in these countries.

I bring it up only because I’m seeing this ALOT now.

Thoughts?

I have never owned Bitcoin until NOW and here is why I’m now buying and holding. Last week when Bessent announced he is doubling Treasury buybacks of US government long bonds it means this:

Those bonds are ILLIQUID meaning the cash is largely locked up in them. Who holds them? Many people including hedge funds. Bessent just told these hedge funds that he will now BUY those previously ILLIQUID bonds creating new liquidity for hedge funds. This begins on Sept 9 but hedge funds are already front running this and buying Bitcoin. This is the mechanics of it in a nutshell. Many don’t currently understand this. They think that Bitcoins move is mostly from a short squeeze but they are not understanding the VERY IMPORTANT fundamental catalyst that has acted as the match to light the Bitcoin flame! This flame is not going away but will only grow as more and more government intervention is needed.

I’m buying Bitcoin because this is JUST THE BEGINNING of the cycle. Sell when retail fomos at the late stages. We are many, many years away from that happening.

For anyone who followed the recent disclosures of Trumps stock holdings may have noticed very important stock buys as well as stock sells and what it actually indicates. Here’s what stood out to me:

Trump buys massive amounts of MA, V, BRKB, and RSG, a trash company, for those who don’t know. What do the buys generally have in common? Robust FCF today, wide moats and reasonable valuations.

He sales META, PLTR, and CME. Now the sales are more nuanced. Meta: negative FCF today and into foreseeable future due to AI CapEx. PLTR: very high valuation that’s vulnerable to compression. CME: legacy exchange being threatened by defi crypto exchange Hyperliquid. Trump just mentioned last week that the CFTC is working hard to soon have Hyperliquid approved to operate within the US, which resulted in HYPE surging over 20% in one day while CME plummeted on the news.

But wait! Many are thinking but Bessent is doing QE or what he’s doing will lead to QE, therefore money printers go BRRR and stocks moon! Wrong! This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what Bessent is actually doing and what it actually leads to. Here’s why:

Buying back bonds with the intent of capping yields is not the same as buying bonds with the intent of decreasing yields. QE was the buying of bonds and MBS for the purpose of dramatically lowering rates to stimulate the economy. What Bessent is doing is trying to put a cap on yields which can still lead to MULTIPLE COMPRESSION of stocks if inflation is rising (which it will) and bond yields stay capped. This is because high inflation erodes corporate profit margins, raises input costs, and lowers real consumer purchasing power.

This is also where the debasement trade kicks into high gear. Clearly many people don’t understand what’s happening and it’s evident in their shock of gold and bitcoins recent surge after Bessent publicly announced his buyback plan. Gold and bitcoin are the two direct beneficiaries of a government debasing its currency. The hedge funds that are holding ILLIQUID US government bonds are NOW buying bitcoin because Bessent has already told them that on Sept 9 the US Treasury will start buying their illiquid US bonds.

The market ALWAYS front runs what is happening and this is what’s happening now with gold and bitcoin. As usual, most retail investors will be late to the party because they are usually the last ones to actually know what’s happening (if they ever know) and just FOMO.

Edit: This isn’t a political post. Following the stock trades of those in power is very important to stock market analysis.

As I’ve posted in previous topics, the US government cannot afford to pay the interest rates on US treasury long bonds that the bond market is currently demanding. Not only this, but the market is actually still in price discovery mode so the yields on government debt are STILL RISING. However, even at current levels the government cannot afford to refinance its debt at those levels. It will trigger a DEBT SPIRAL that actually INCREASES INFLATION. So Bessent has intervened and tried to manipulate the bond market thus preventing market price discovery.

However, people don’t understand that Bessent has essentially exhausted almost all of his options as Treasury secretary to stop the bleeding in the bond market and it’s ALL FAILED because the Treasury simply doesn’t have enough money to throw at the problem but there’s someone who does: THE FED.

However, the Fed isn’t just going to start buying US government bonds to help save the US government from entering a debt spiral just because Bessent or Trumps asks them too. This would give the appearance that the Fed has lost its independence and also go against their mandate of price stability. Instead what will happen is rates on yields will continue to rise until either credit freezes, the stock market crashes or both forcing the Feds hand into QE. This will provide the Fed for an excuse to start QE while inflation is still high.

For those who are skeptical I say just RUN THE MATH. Currently the US government pays $1.2T on its interest annually, second only to Social Security. That debt was financed at 1% to 2% rates. Trillions of dollars of debt will have to be refinanced every year at 4% to 5%+ yields massively inflating the US governments interest expense. To pay for this increased interest expense the US will be forced to issue MORE DEBT. This is the debt spiral which is actually inflationary. This is BASIC MATH. People have talked about it for years but the US has finally hit that wall.

So what is my strategy? I am not totally out of stocks because there can still be rallies before the crash/major sell off comes but what I’m doing is I’m selling stocks into rallies and raising my cash pile. I’m increasing positions into gold and bitcoin. Many say you can’t time the market, which is true, however what is happening now is VERY CLEAR and here is simply logic:

If rising yields didn’t represent a threat to the US governments budget Bessent wouldn’t be buying Yen, wouldn’t be buying long bonds, and also recalibrating the eSLR buffer allowing banks to absorb more US government debt without tripping capital limits all with the goal of lowering yields on US bonds because the US government can no longer afford to pay those interest rates due to its current debt and deficit size.

This is a new regime called FISCAL DOMIMANCE. The US Treasury Department is essentially dominating over the Fed and the way they are doing so is by reducing its percentage of long term debt (US treasury bonds) and increasing its percentage of short term debt (US T-bills). Historically T-bills made up 15% to 18% of marketable debt. Today, T-bills make up 22% to 23% of that debt. What this means is that if the Fed raises rates tomorrow that when the short term T-bills mature and news ones are issued they will be issued at then new, higher rate which instantly raises the interest the government pays.

So why is the government even doing this? They have no choice. They can’t afford to issue new long term debt at the current interest rates over 5%. Currently the US government is already paying over $1.2T/yr in interest on its debt, which more than its spends on its DEFENSE BUDGET. Interest expense on our debt is already the second largest expense in our budget, second only to social security.

So if a higher percentage of our debt is now T-bills, which the yield is directly controlled by the Fed, the Fed can’t raise rates because then the interest the US pays on its debt will grow even more! So the Fed is TRAPPED. Inflation will stay high and that’s by design. The US government plans to inflate away the debt which is nothing but a tax on US citizens and bond holders.

This all explains why gold, bitcoin/crypto is surging. Smart money knows the Fed is now trapped. They might talk tough but the government debt ensures that they can’t raise rates unless they want to blowup the US budget.

As we all know by now Bessent announced that the US treasury will issue t-bills to take US long dated treasuries off the market in order to cap yields on the 10yr and 30yr treasury. This is financial repression on a small scale that is designed to act as a bridge until polices are put in place for the REAL FINANCIAL REPRESSION. As we all can see, yields are already rising again, so what Bessent did wasn’t nearly good enough.

So what next? What will financial repression be?

The government will create polices that force banks and insurers to hold MORE US treasuries in order to cap yields. So basically instead of the Fed buying US treasuries to cap yields the government will force banks and insurers to buy these US treasuries to cap yields. Why does this instead of QE? QE is off the table because inflation is still high. QE will only worsen inflation. Now what the Fed will do is LOWER RATES below the rate of inflation. The reason all of this has to be done is because there’s no way the US government can service its debt if yields are above 5%. That would result in a DEATH SPIRAL of the government needing to issue more and more debt just to pay its interest obligations. So financial repression is essentially inflating the debt away.

Now the good news. What assets benefit the most during financial repression? Stocks but specifically high growth stocks, AI stocks, big tech stocks. Assets like gold and bitcoin will also do well since financial repression devalues the currency and makes bonds unattractive.

This is currently underway now. The US government mathematically has no choice and there is no political appetite to reduce debt or deficits through either tax increases, austerity or a combination of both.

Not trying to be an alarmist but just stating the facts. Last month Bessent had to intervene to keep the Japanese Yen from plunging LOWER. Now he’s intervening to try to stop the 10yr and 30yr bond yields from continuing to rise to decade level highs. The fact that none of this has stopped bond yields from continuing to rise indicates the SEVERITY of the structural problems.

What is the structural problem? TOO MUCH DEBT in the system and NOT ENOUGH BUYERS.

In the past the Japanese were MAJOR buyers of US debt. In fact, they were ANCHOR to the entire financial system the past THREE DECADES. This regime has now CHANGED with Japanese bond yields now rivaling foreign bond yields. The Japanese no longer have to buy foreign debt. This is a HUGE problem for the US at exactly the wrong time. Why the wrong time? Because this is happening at a time of RECORD DEBT AND DEFICITS in the US as well as globally. It also comes at a time of record corporate debt issuance to fund AI CapEx. The problem is too big to patch up the way Bessent has tried.

So what happens now? In my opinion there are only TWO OUTCOMES.

Outcome 1: The US government does nothing. Bond yields become untethered and settle at levels that strangle the economy, exposing bad businesses/zombie companies, resulting in an economic crash that plunges into a major recession.

Outcome 2: The Fed steps in and replaces Japan as the buyers of long bonds to bring down yields or keep them controlled. This is essentially QE and with inflation already at 3.4%, inflation will only surge higher, potentially to hyperinflation. The US dollar could also end up being debased.

Outcome 3: The US government starts austerity to rein in its debt, cut deficits. This will stop yields from climbing but will be wildly unpopular as many Americans will have entitlements cut and the economy will fall into recession as much of GDP is tied to government spending.

Outcome 2 is the likely outcome which is why gold rallied yesterday. The US government doesn’t have the political will to cut budgets, reduce debt and deficits.

So basically the US Treasury Department is using short dated T-bills to buy long dated US bonds in order to take the pressure off the 10yr and 30yr bond yields. This signals a STRUCTURAL PROBLEM in the debt markets and is only a BAND-AID to the problem. Also, essentially the US government has now replaced long term debt with more short dated debt that needs to be replaced more often. If short term bond rates rise because of higher inflation expectations then now the US government is payer HIGHER INTEREST on its short term debt.

This only buys time in my opinion and delays the inevitable. The timing of this change is starting Sept 9 and lasting until Nov 4. Hmmm, that just so happens to election time. So it seems Bessent is trying to delay a market until AFTER THE ELECTION…

The financial system is very complex but here’s what’s currently happening. Booming AI CapEx has fueled high valuations across areas of the tech sector and companies connected with the AI buildout. The CapEx has initially taken the attention away from what has been happening but is now reaching levels that can no longer be ignored.

What is happening? Sovereign debt levels of developed countries rising to all time highs vs their GDPs resulting in the bond markets being flooded with a huge supply of government bond debt. This has now happening at the same time as hyperscalers are turning to the debt markets to fund their AI CapEx creating an even bigger supply of debt in the bond markets. This new huge supply of corporate bonds are competing with the already huge supply (and rising) supply of government bonds. So where are the buyers coming from to buy this new massive supply of debt? For the past 30yrs Japan always bought our debt because they had negative interest rates but now the Japanese bond yield is almost 3%! This has resulted in not only the Japanese not buying our debt but even selling our debt to repatriate that capital back to Japan into their bonds. When you have a massive supply of debt and not enough buyers yields MUST GO HIGHER to entice new buyers. This is what’s currently happening with the US 30yr and 10yr treasury’s and no one knows how much higher they have to go. The Fed doesn’t control the long end of the curve.

Higher rates for longer is where the next problem lies. We are coming from a period of low rates. Many bad loans were made during this time. Private credit (shadow banking) is now larger than subprime. There loans are not fixed rates but FLOATING. Defaults in private credit are now estimated at 9%. Rates staying higher for longer will eventually trigger massive private credit defaults that then spread elsewhere. Nobody fully knows how interconnected private equity is with the overall financial system but what we do know is that if private credit defaults massively it will hurt banks, insurers and pension funds that will be forced to react in a way to sets in motion the next domino to fall. Contagion is the word.

In the past, when something like this happens, the Fed cuts rates and starts monetary stimulus. The problem today is that inflation is at 3.4%, way above target. So if the Fed intervenes, which they likely will, inflation will only go higher. Of course a potential oil shock is already looming to make matters worse.

This is where we are today folks. It sounds bleak, I know. The only thing to do currently is to take risk off the table right now and preserve your capital.

The only thing keeping this market alive is AI CapEx spending. THATS IT! I’ve done tons of research and someone correct me if I’m wrong but all the quality, wide moat business are FULLY PRICED OR OVERVALUED. I personally find long bond yields continued rise troubling because the bond vigilantes are essentially forcing the Feds hand as well as the government’s hand when it comes to fiscal policy. Can stocks continue to be at all time highs with these dynamics at play? It is tricky environment for sure because on one hand the AI CAPEX spending is REAL. On the other hand rising yields will eventually slow the economy. Also, money will eventually come out of the best performing stocks and go into bonds if yields become attractive enough.

Basically, in my opinion, I see bond vigilantes emerging after decades of easy monetary and fiscal policy has resulted in inflation that isn’t going away. Nobody in government has the guts to tame the inflation beast so the bond vigilantes are forcing their hand.

Timing the market is a fools errand but every day that passes I’m thinking it’s best to be mostly in cash. Of course most don’t want to do this because it’s been a losing bet for almost 2 decades now. Look at the VIX. It’s at extreme lows which to me is also another RED FLAG. It seems that people are not really in the market because they want to be but just because they feel like they have no choice. They must invest to continue beating inflation.

As I stated though, the bond vigilantes are now changing the dynamics. We all know that the Fed and US government has no intent to solve inflation so we invest in order to beat inflation since the government won’t do it. However, now we have the bond vigilantes doing the job the Fed and government has refused to do.

Of course it’s all very complex but I think the questions to ask are WHY DO LONG BOND YIELDS KEEP RISING EVERYDAY and WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

10yrs ago I never seen anything like this. Now I hear it EVERYWHERE . For those unaware LBH means LOSER BACK HOME. Why is this becoming a thing now in the Philippines? In my opinion it’s because over the past decade it has been TONS MORE FOREIGNERS coming to live in the Philippines and it’s mostly due to one factor. Before, what most foreigners would do is get a Filipina and then take her back to America or the West. Most never considered living in the Philippines. Then the word got put out on the internet that bringing a Filipina back to the West was a bad idea because she ultimately divorce you and then be with more desirable men in the West which was the experience of tons of Westerners. So the new idea now became to just come to the Philippines, find you Filipina, and stay in the Philippines away from the West that way you never have to worry about her leaving you for more desirable foreigners in your home country.

So this is the playbook the last decade of so and it’s created an influx of foreigners into the Philippines who basically live. The younger generations of Filipinos are not stupid and they’ve figured out that most of these foreigners have no prospects and are lower class in their home countries.

Why do I bring this up? So many times I see in this forum foreigners thinking they are viewed as “special” by Filipinos. I think this only applies to the younger foreigners or female foreigners because Filipinos are more than use to seeing old, retired foreigner males. It’s a totally different dynamic than it was years ago.

I bring this up because I’ve seen several post here lately saying they heard Filipinos talking bad about them in their native language. I’m not fluent in Cebuano but I’m about 50 to 60%. I know enough words that when I hear them talking I have a general idea of what they are talking about. Now sometimes they might talk about me, but it’s not in a bad way. When I hear them talking about me I just respond back to them in Cebuano. They are shocked 🤣

The most common I hear though is they say, “Oh so tall”. They say “tall” in Cebuano. It’s easy to understand if you the know the words.

What find Filipinos actually good at is using their knowledge of the English language to manipulate foreigners. People talk about, go to Philippines because they speak English good. After living in the Philippines I now view them being able to speak English as a negative because as I say, they will use English as their tool to manipulate foreigners. Most foreigners don’t understand this…