u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome

A lot has happened in the past few weeks! Now that I’ve seen The Odyssey and The Invite, as well as the trailers for Behemoth! and Digger, here are my updated Oscar predictions:

Best Picture:

• The Odyssey seems pretty likely to win this. I wasn’t predicting it because I didn’t think it would be the kind of social message movie that usually wins nowadays, but it kind of has that message by the end of it in a similar way that Oppenheimer did. And regardless, having an 89 on Metacritic and grossing over a billion dollars as a big showy period epic is exactly the kind of thing that one would expect to win Best Picture in any era.
• The Black Ball doesn’t seem to be acclaimed enough to overcome being a foreign language Netflix film, but it will still get nominated across the board and get some wins.
• Wild Horse Nine still will likely be a top contender, but this seems like another year where McDonagh will have a top 3 film but lose Best Picture in the end.
• Project Hail Mary’s chances of winning technical categories have gone down significantly, but it still is a universally-beloved hit that’s Amazon’s top contender.
• I have Behemoth significantly overperforming and being a top contender that’s solidly in the Best Picture field. That trailer was fantastic.
• Fjord should still be able to get in as Neon’s star-studded top horse that also won the Palme.
• Dune 3 looks great and I see no reason to predict it doing significantly worse than Dune 2 did if the quality holds up. 
• The Debut has clearly been positioned as A24’s main contender. It’s possible that it will get a more muted reception and that they’ll focus on getting The Invite nominated instead, but I’m expecting their big festival push to be their main focus.
• Focus will get a nominee in. I am leaning towards it still being Obsession just based on how much of a sensation it has been, but I would not be surprised at all if it ends up being Elsinore.
• Finally, we know Netflix is more than capable of campaigning for multiple movie, and Ink is a good play in the hands of a talented director. It seems like it could make the Best Picture lineup.
• I’d have Digger in 11th place (I’m expecting it to be a box office flop and get mixed reviews), Elsinore in 12th, The Invite in 13th (I’d have it in but A24 is really bad at getting their secondary contenders into Picture), All of a Sudden in 14th, The Adventures of Cliff Booth in 15th, Being Heumann in 16th, Bunker in 17th, The Social Reckoning in 18th, Artificial in 19th, and Michael in 20th.

Best Director

• Nolan is winning this, there’s no way he isn’t. Beyond that, I think Los Javis should be solidly in since they’re the directors of the top foreign contender. I am expecting McDonagh to get nominated, but if Wild Horse Nine is a lower-tier contender he could miss - after all he was snubbed despite hitting all of the precursors in 2017. I think Behemoth is going to be a big enough and showy enough contender that Gilroy will make it in, after all he has been nominated before. And lastly, Mungiu is exactly the kind of person the directors nominate, though it’s not impossible he could miss like Salles and Filho did for their foreign Best Picture nominees.
• I’d have Inarritu in 6th place, Wilde in 7th, Hamaguchi in 8th, Boyle in 9th, Barker in 10th, Villeneuve in 11th, Fincher in 12th, and Lord and Miller in 13th.

Best Actress

• Navarette’s performance is showy and has completely captured the zeitgeist, I think the critics will go for her and that will get the ball rolling on a campaign for her to win Best Actress. Moore is the only one who makes sense as an alternative to her right now, though I’m not sure The Debut will be quite strong enough to win multiple Oscars and I think Giamatti is stronger than her. Reinsve’s performance is well-reviewed, and the category is open enough that I’m not going to predict her missing for a Best Picture nominee to actresses in weaker films. For the final two slots, I’m going with SPC getting Cruz (whose role in Bunker sounds fantastic, hopefully Zeller isn’t a one hit wonder) and Huller (who we know has the performance in Rose and the career narrative, we’ll just have to see if Mubi can get a smaller foreign film nominated).
• I have Michelle Williams in 6th, Rinko Kikuchi in 7th (if Bunker flops, I’ll predict SPC getting her in instead of Cruz), Olivia Wilde in 8th (I’d have her higher, but I have her getting into supporting instead for Behemoth!), Ruth Madeley in 9th, Cynthia Erivo in 10th, Virginie Efira in 11th, Zendaya in 12th, Sophie Okonedo in 13th, Emily Blunt in 14th, Sandra Huller in Fatherland in 15th, Rachel Brosnahan in 16th, and Mikey Madison in 17th.

Best Actor

• This category is way too stacked. I think Damon is probably winning along with The Odyssey winning Best Picture, he’s so central to the movie, his performance is acclaimed, and he’s one of the biggest stars alive to never win an acting Oscar. Pascal could win too if he’s fantastic in Behemoth and it’s a top contender. Malkovich should make it in as long as Wild Horse Nine is a top contender, and Andrew Scott is supposedly incredible in a really baity role in Elsinore. And lastly, if The Black Ball is a top contender, Guitaricadelafuente should be able to make it in here. If Netflix was able to get the unknown actors from Roma nominated when that was a top two contender, I don’t see why they’d be unable to for The Black Ball.
• I have Tom Cruise in 6th (the strength of his narrative won’t be enough if the film isn’t broadly liked imo), Ryan Gosling in 7th (Matt Damon barely made it in 2015, and that was a much weaker category), Jaafar Jackson in 8th, Sebastian Stan in 9th, John Turturro in 10th, Seth Rogen in 11th, Jack O’Connell in 12th, Anthony Ippolito in 13th, Robert Pattinson in 14th, Robert Aramayo in 15th, Javier Bardem in Bunker in 16th, Brad Pitt in 17th, Jeremy Allen White in 18th, and Timothee Chalamet in 19th.

Best Supporting Actress

• After seeing The Odyssey, I think Anne Hathaway has a good shot at winning, but that Mariana di Girolamo will still take it (Hathaway doesn’t have much showy acting to do for most of the movie). Penelope Cruz’s role is likely too small for her to win, but she should get solidly in off the back of The Black Ball’s strength. I have the last two slots going to Olivia Wilde (I think people will want to recognize her for the fantastic year she’s had, and she supposedly has a good role in Behemoth!) and Halle Bailey (she seems to have a good amount of interaction with Moore in the trailer for The Debut, and if she gets any singing scenes in the movie she will shine in them).
• I have Elizabeth Debicki in 6th (I previously had her getting in, but Netflix picking up Ink makes me think Cliff Booth won’t be a top priority for them), Penelope Cruz in The Invite in 7th (I’d be predicting her if I wasn’t already predicting her getting 2 acting nominations), Tao Okamoto in 8th, Samantha Morton in 9th (I don’t think her single scene in a 3 hour movie left enough impact for The Odyssey to get a double nom in this category), Lola Duenas in 10th, Sandra Huller in Digger in 11th, Havana Rose Liu in 12th, Parker Posey in 13th, Sandra Huller in Project Hail Mary in 14th, Olivia Colman in 15th, Bernadette Peters in 16th, and Anya Taylor-Joy in 17th.

Best Supporting Actor

• Paul Giamatti looked great in the trailer for The Debut, I think he’s winning this. Sam Rockwell should be solidly in as a co-lead from a top contender frauded into supporting. John Leguizamo was really good in The Odyssey, is a beloved character actor who has never broken through before, and should be carried in if it’s a top contender. Guy Pearce has a fantastic role in Ink, and with Netflix campaigning it he should be able to make it in. And Buscemi is due and could come along as a coattail nom for a strong contender.
• I have Edward Norton in 6th, Jeremy Strong in 7th, Will Arnett in 8th, John Goodman in 9th, Colman Domingo in 10th, Robert Pattinson in 11th, Riz Ahmed in 12th, Mark Ruffalo in 13th, Channing Tatum in 14th, Andrew Garfield in 15th, and Tom Holland in 16th.

Best Original Screenplay

• I’m predicting Behemoth! winning over Wild Horse Nine, but it could be close between the two, Behemoth! just seems like the more original work and that’s often what the Academy goes for here. Fjord and The Debut probably won’t win but should be solidly in as well. I have Obsession taking the final slot, horror contenders like Get Out, The Substance, and Sinners were all strong here.
• I have Elsinore in 6th, Digger in 7th, Bunker in 8th, Club Kid in 9th, Artificial in 10th, A Place in Hell in 11th, Josephine in 12th, and The Drama in 13th.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Black Ball will be a strong Best Picture contender and I think it can pull off a win here in the weaker screenplay category. Project Hail Mary has a chance as well, though I think it is more seen as a technical achievement than a writerly film. The Invite could absolutely win here if it’s a Best Picture contender, but I have it as a lone nom. The Odyssey is likely not winning Adapted Screenplay unless it is breaking the Oscar win record, but it probably will still get a nomination unless if a weird snub like Titanic missing screenplay happens. For the last slot, I’m predicting Ink - Netflix acquiring it shows a lot of confidence in it, and supposedly the play it’s based on is great.
• I have All of a Sudden in 6th, The Adventures of Cliff Booth in 7th, The Social Reckoning in 8th, Being Heumann in 9th, Dune 3 in 10th, A Long Winter in 11th, and Clarissa in 12th.

The techs

• I have The Odyssey sweeping every technical category except for Makeup, Visual Effects, Original Score, and Original Song. I could also see it losing Production Design if Dune 3 ends up being a top contender, but otherwise it seems like a pretty secure winner across the board.
• I’m predicting Behemoth! overperforming by getting into Editing and Sound and The Adventures of Cliff Booth getting a couple of noms in the categories that are friendly to period films.
• I have The Black Ball winning the music-based categories since it seems pretty showy on that front, and The Odyssey’s score is less of a standout than the 3 scores Goransson has won for before.

The Signature Theatre in Arlington, Virginia always puts on great productions, but I was completely blown away by the production of Pippin they have going on right now. I had never seen the musical and went in blind, and it's incredible - the music is fantastic, it balances heavy themes and comedy well, and it scratches the same itch for me that Company (my all-time favorite musical does) with its mix of struggling with ennui and attachment and the point of life being overcoming that through love. I think this might be a top 4 theater production I've ever seen, behind just the 2022 Company revival, Sleep No More, and Maybe Happy Ending.

The production was just fantastic - it was amazing seeing it in the round, and the lighting was incredible (which got highlighted especially at the end of the show). The choreography was so well done, especially in With You, and the costuming was some of the best I've ever seen (especially in the war scenes). The cast was very strong, we had an understudy - Calvin L'mont Cooper - as the Leading Player and he did a great job. The standouts of the cast for me were Maria Rizzo as Fastrada and Naomi Jacobson as Berthe, Ellison Bihm was a really nice surprise as Theo as well. And that ending was phenomenal, easily one of the best endings I have ever seen for a show. Can't recommend this enough, it's playing through July 26th so go see it if you can!

Best Picture: I feel reasonably happy with this lineup - there’s something for every major studio here. The biggest question for me is what A24’s main contender will be, I could easily see it being The Invite or even Primetime instead. All of a Sudden, Cliff Booth, and Jack of Spades (if it’s releasing this year) are the other main contenders I’m thinking about. For the win I’m still leaning Wild Horse Nine since I think a comedy that examines American imperialism is going to be relevant and strike a chord, but I could definitely see The Black Ball taking it.

Best Director: I still have the same 5 I had after Cannes. I think Nolan will win a win similar to Inarritu’s for The Revenant, McDonagh just isn’t that showy of a director and is more of a writer first. I’d have Ryusuke Hamaguchi in 6th, Curry Barker in 7th, Tony Gilroy in 8th, David Fincher in 9th, and Joel Coen in 10th.

Best Actress: I have Navarette going lead and taking the category, I’d be predicting Moore winning a second Oscar if she goes supporting instead. Reinsve seems strong for the nom but unlikely to win. That leaves two slot, and I’m going with a lone nom for Michelle Williams (I’m sure she’ll be good, but I mostly have her getting in since the competition is foreign films that will miss SAG and Emily Blunt in a sci-fi film with mixed reception) for one of them. For the last slot, I’m predicting Rinko Kikuchi for Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! I’m actually kind of surprised no one is predicting her given how wide open the field is. Her movie has good reviews and seems like a crowdpleaser, SPC is great at getting acting noms, she’s a prior nominee, and her role seems showy. I have Virginie Efira in 6th, Rachel Brosnahan in 7th, Ruth Madeley in 8th, Emily Blunt in 9th, Sandra Huller in 10th, Cynthia Erivo in 11th, Olivia Wilde in 12th, Sophie Okonedo in 13th, Mikey Madison in 14th, and Cate Blanchett in 15th.

Best Actor: Compared to Best Actress, this category is a bloodbath. I have Reinsve in 3rd for Fjord but I only have Stan in 7th here. I also really want to predict Turturro and especially Pattinson, but I just can’t think of a reason any of the actors in my lineup would miss if they’re contenders. Pascal and Cruise are the core of their entire movies, McDonagh films don’t miss acting noms, and Gosling has the clear comp of Damon getting in for The Martian as evidence he can make it. I could see Damon missing if The Odyssey is a weaker contender, but Odysseus is such a meaty role, if the movie is top 3 it would be weird for him to miss. I have Pascal winning since I am still really doubtful about comedic performances like Cruise’s, Malkovich’s, and Gosling’s winning Best Actor (it basically never happens). I have Robert Pattinson in 6th, Sebastian Stan in 7th, John Turturro in 8th, Jaafar Jackson in 9th, Guitaricadelafuente in 10th, Robert Aramayo in 11th, Brad Pitt in 12th, Josh O’Connor in 13th, Jeremy Allen White in 14th, and David Corenswet in 15th.

Best Supporting Actress: I have di Giorlamo winning along with Wild Horse Nine, but I’d have Navarette winning if she goes supporting. Cruz and Hathaway should be able to come along with their big contenders. For the last two slots, I have Debicki making it in for Cliff Booth (out of Fincher and Tarantino’s last 10 movies, 9 got acting nominations, and Debicki is due for a breakthrough) and Wilde getting in as a coattail for Behemoth! and as a recognition of a great year for her. I’d have Halle Bailey in 6th, Tao Okamoto in 7th, Daisy Edgar-Jones in 8th, Sandra Huller (in Project Hail Mary) in 9th, Penelope Cruz (for The Invite) in 10th, Bernadette Peters in 11th, Parker Posey in 12th, Lesley Manville in 13th, Havana Rose Liu in 14th, and Wunmi Mosaku in 15th.

Best Supporting Actor: I previously had Goodman winning, but I’ve lost some faith in Digger so I’ve switched to predicting Giamatti, he seems like he has a strong role. After that I’m predicting the same lineup of 5 that most people are. McDonagh’s last two films got 2 supporting actor noms so I don’t see why that can’t continue now, and if anyone gets nominated for The Social Reckoning it will be Jeremy Strong, whose performance in the trailer was well-received. After that, I’d have Will Arnett in 6th, Edward Norton in 7th, Robert Pattinson in 8th, Colman Domingo in 9th, Riz Ahmed in 10th, Mark Ruffalo in 11th, Tom Holland in 12th, Andrew Scott in 13th, Channing Tatum in 14th, and Antonio Banderas in 15th.

Best Original Screenplay: I’m torn on this since I’m predicting 6 Best Picture nominees with original screenplays, but I’m leaving Digger out and slotting in Obsession. If Obsession is a Best Picture contender, it probably should be in this category, this was one of the categories Get Out, The Substance, and Sinners were strongest in. I have Digger in 6th, Jack of Spades in 7th, Club Kid in 8th, A Place in Hell in 9th, Primetime in 10th, Saturn Return in 11th, and The Drama in 12th. Wild Horse Nine will be an easy winner here if it’s winning Best Picture.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Black Ball is the clear front runner here, with Project Hail Mary as a solid runner-up. After that, I have The Odyssey overcoming people’s concerns about the dialogue to make it in off of its overall strength as a contender, All of a Sudden getting a nom similar to It Was Just an Accident’s or The Worst Person in the World’s screenplay noms, and Tarantino getting in for Cliff Booth (though him missing like he did for The Hateful Eight isn’t impossible). I’d have The Invite in 6th, Being Heumann in 7th, A Long Winter in 8th, The Social Reckoning in 9th, Minotaur in 10th, and Dune 3 in 11th.

Best Casting: It’s so hard to predict this category since it’s hard to know what it’s looking for. I feel pretty confident in Wild Horse Nine and The Black Ball, since I’m expecting them to be top contenders and they both have major discoveries of actors who haven’t previously been well-known. After that, I’m predicting Obsession because of how big of a discovery Inde Navarette was. I’m predicting The Debut since it’s an ensemble filled with smaller names, and the casting director for it - Douglas Aibel - is a huge name since he’s the casting director for Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach, James Gray, Kenneth Lonergan, and M. Night Shyamalan. For the 5th slot, I’m predicting Fjord getting nominated because of the child actors involved, but the Academy could easily go with Digger or The Odyssey if they want to nominate big ensemble casts filled with stars.

In the other tech categories, I have Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey winning most of the awards. My big shots in the dark are predicting Rose getting a makeup nom (it feels like the kind of thing the people who voted for Kokuho and The Ugly Stepsister would vote for), Behemoth getting into Editing and Sound since it’s so music-focused (I have it missing Score only because I think it’ll get ruled ineligible for having too many composers, it would be my winner otherwise), and The End of Oak Street getting nominated for some good creature effects (I think the Academy might be over nominating MCU movies in the category, Disclosure Day absolutely isn’t happening here, and Whalefall from my understanding will mostly be flashbacks inside of the whale after the initial scene where he’s swallowed).

Now that Cannes is done, here are the films I’m predicting for Oscars

Wild Horse Nine: I still think this is in the lead to win Best Picture, it is the right combo of being an entertaining movie with a social message, and McDonagh has come close to winning before. I do have it being weaker than last time though, it got crowded out of score and I don’t have it winning director anymore. I have it winning Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Casting.

The Black Ball: This is the strongest challenger to Wild Horse Nine to come along so far, it looks bold, crowdpleasing, and important (the main reason I’m not predicting it for Picture is that it’s still hard for a foreign film to win the top prize). Netflix will make it its top priority and it will get nominated across the board, and I have it winning Adapted Screenplay, International Film, and Song, and being an extremely close second in Casting.

The Odyssey: I was pretty impressed with the new trailer and have moved Nolan to first place in Director, this could be a Revenant situation, especially since a McDonagh film winning Picture and losing Director is very possible. I also have it winning Production Design and Film Editing, and being a strong contender for Cinematography and Score. I still have The Odyssey getting a screenplay nomination off of its Best Picture strength, but it seems like the kind of nom that will bother a lot of people like Frankenstein’s did.

Project Hail Mary: Everyone loves this movie, it’s going to do very well. I have it winning Cinematography, Visual Effects, and Sound, but while I doubt it will end up winning above the line it’s definitely possible that it will.

Fjord: Fjord winning the Palme cements it as Neon’s top contender. It should easily get into Picture, Director, Screenplay, the acting awards, and casting, and I have it in 7th for Cinematography as well. I don’t think it has strong enough reviews or audience reception to win anything except maybe Screenplay though.

Digger: I really need more information on what this thing is. I’m still predicting it getting nominated across the board, but it seems like it might be divisive, and I’m skeptical of Tom Cruise lasting as the front runner all season for a comedic performance. I do have John Goodman winning though (that might be hopedicting since Barton Fink is one of my top 10 favorite films ever) and I have Digger winning Makeup.

Dune 3: There’s definitely enough room for 3 blockbusters to make it in, and Dune 3 will likely be very well received by audiences and critics. I have it performing similarly to Dune 2 but without any wins - predicting it to miss cinematography feels wrong as well but that category is extremely competitive and Linus Sandgren has missed for great work before.

All of a Sudden: Drive My Car did well at the Oscars, and All of a Sudden has an 87 on Metacritic and great Letterboxd scores. It probably will have more appeal to the European voters in the Academy than Drive My Car did. I don’t think it will win anything though, it might be a bit too long and artsy for that.

Behemoth!: I only dropped this from my predictions because I was tired of predicting something that we had no information on, we didn’t even know anything about the plot. Now that we’ve had positive test screening reports, I’m predicting it getting into Best Picture. And apparently it’s a big showcase for Pedro Pascal, and I’m betting on him winning since I’ll always default to predicting a big dramatic role winning Best Actor over a comedic performance. I also have it winning Score, it’s a music-focused film and it’ll have a great narrative with all of the composers working on it.

No One Cares: I had been a bit skeptical of this, but the test screening reports are positive so I’m predicting it getting a good amount of noms. I’m not feeling all that confident in the other Best Actress contenders being strong enough to win, but if Julianne Moore is great in a baity role, there’s no reason she can’t win a second Oscar.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth: Even if Netflix has a different film they’re focusing on now, I still think Cliff Booth will get some noms - after all 9 of the past 10 Tarantino and Fincher films got noms. I have it getting into Screenplay and Costume Design, and being a close 11th for Best Picture and 6th in Supporting Actress for Elizabeth Debicki. The big issue for it is that the tech categories are so competitive, I could definitely imagine it getting into Production Design, Score, and Cinematography, but there’s no room.

Obsession: I had thought Obsession would go nowhere, but it is going to make over $100 million at the box office and has great reviews and audience reception. It’s clearly closer to being like Weapons than it is to something like Bring Her Back, and with Focus having no clear top contender, it’s possible that they’ll just focus on pushing Obsession. I have Navarette in 2nd place in Best Supporting Actress and Obsession in 6th place in Screenplay and Casting and 12th place in Picture.

Fatherland: I think Mubi will prioritize this over Minotaur since Pawlikowski has been recognized by the Oscars before and this has better acting prospects. I have it getting into Actress, Cinematography, and International but missing Picture and Director since it’s more respected than loved and Mubi still isn’t an amazing campaigner.

A Place in Hell: Neon has a lot of films to focus on, I have them still getting Williams in but it’s hard to see her winning unless the film gets a few other noms. I’d have this in 7th in Screenplay and Supporting Actress.

The Social Reckoning: I don’t think this will be good, but the category is empty and Sorkin has gotten acting noms for mediocre films before. If anyone has any suggestions on who I could predict instead I’d love to hear them.

Cry to Heaven: I’m still predicting this for a couple noms and a costume design win, but the competition has gotten too fierce for me to predict a Best Picture nom for a movie with no distributor (and Ford’s last two movies missed Picture, this definitely could too).

Here are my thoughts on the contenders this year:

Wild Horse Nine: This feels like it fits the bill of the kind of thing that has won Best Picture recently - entertaining, auteur-driven, and with a social or political message that makes it more than just fluff. McDonagh’s last two films did well with the Oscars, there’s no reason to think this will be any different, and I’m predicting it winning Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Casting.

Digger: I’d love to see a trailer for this so I can know more about it, but at the moment I’d expect it to do very well with noms across the board, but still to have relatively muted critical reception like most Inarritu films (Birdman and Amores Perros are his only films with Metacritic scores in the 80s or higher). I’m not predicting it being a big win contender at the moment (though I could definitely be wrong, it also could be an entertaining, politically relevant auteur movie), but I have John Goodman finally getting his due since the test screening reports for him are great. I also have it winning Makeup.

Project Hail Mary: This has a chance to win Best Picture - I wouldn’t expect it to since blockbusters usually don’t get all the way there, but this is beloved. At the very least I’m expecting it to do very well in the techs and am predicting it winning Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound, and Score (I am not enormously confident in Score, but Pemberton’s work is so good and I feel like it could be swept along with a wave of love for the film). I want to slot Ryan Gosling into Best Actor and would have him in 6th, but the category is extremely strong, and Matt Damon was probably only in 5th for The Martian in his year (he missed SAG).

The Odyssey: I have this getting nominated across the board - it’s going to be one of the biggest films of the year and it would have to be a pretty big miss for Nolan to not be a big contender. I have it winning Production Design for the massive amount of practical period work that will be in it and Editing for the task of making an epic story like this flow quickly. I also have it winning Best Actor. Matt Damon has 3 acting nominations without an acting win. He’s one of the biggest stars of his generation to never have won, maybe the biggest after Cruise. And he’s playing a dramatic, emotional role that is central to his movie and has a physical transformation. That seems like it could give him a leg up on people like Cruise and Malkovich, since the Academy has shown plenty of times in recent years (including 2025, 2023, and 2022) that it leans towards dramatic performances over comedic ones in Best Actor.

Fatherland: I’m not enormously confident in this, but Pawlikowski has made two movies that broke through at the Oscars, there’s no reason to think this one will be any different, and Mubi has shown that it can manage a good campaign. I have it winning Best Actress and Best International Film - I’m not confident in Best Actress but if Sandra Huller is in 3 top 5 Best Picture contenders I think the narrative could overcome SAG’s bias against foreign films and carry her to an Oscar win. I also have Hanns Zischler getting into Best Actor - it just doesn’t make sense to predict a movie about Thomas Mann getting a bunch of Oscar nominations and then to not predict the person playing Thomas Mann.

Cry to Heaven: I’ve dropped Cry to Heaven from my Best Actor predictions - child actors don’t ever get nominated for Best Actor and if Nicholas Hoult is only the lead for 30% of the movie he won’t have enough material to get in. I still have it doing well across the board though, including getting a Costume Design win (it’s Tom Ford doing 1700s costumes, it’s going to look great) and an Adapted Screenplay win (I think the blockbusters will split the vote a bit there).

Fjord: I don’t think this will be a huge contender like some people do, but Neon is clearly confident in it and Mungiu hasn’t made a poorly-received film yet. I trust Neon to get an acclaimed European auteur film into Picture, Director, and Screenplay, and Reinsve coming along in a relatively weak category shouldn’t be too tough for her. I’m also predicting a casting nom for it because it will have child actors in it.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth: I think we’ve collectively been underestimating this too much. Between them, Fincher and Tarantino have made 11 movies since 2008. 10 of those movies got Oscar nominations (and all 10 of those were nominated above the line), and 9 of them got at least 3 Oscar nominations. Cliff Booth completely blanking like people have been predicting would be very atypical for Fincher and Tarantino. And now that Narnia has moved, this is pretty clearly Netflix’s main contender unless if they buy something. I have it getting nominated for Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, and Costume Design, and it could easily go higher than that (right now I have it in 6th place in Director, Casting, Cinematography, and Score).

Primetime: A24 will have a contender, and while I probably should just predict No One Cares, Primetime is getting a fall release, seems potentially baity, and u/Duhlorean said that it tested well so I’m going to go with that and predict it making Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay (edit- I meant adapted screenplay).

Dune 3: Cutting Jack of Spades from my predictions (I got tired of having multiple films with no studio in there) meant that there was room to predict Dune, which just makes sense. Even if the second movie did worse than the first, there’s no real reason to predict Dune underperforming so badly that it misses Best Picture if it’s as well-received as the first two films, especially with a much better release date than the second one.

A Place in Hell: The December release date hasn’t worked out very well for Neon, but there seems to be some good buzz around this film, and right now I have it just on the outside of making it into Best Picture, with Michelle Williams having a good shot at winning Best Actress (I’d probably predict her if I had A Place in Hell in the Best Picture lineup).

Saturn Return: If Netflix gets two films into Best Picture, I could see this being their smaller secondary contender, and I’m still predicting a Brosnahan nom. I have it in 6th place in Original Screenplay at the moment and could easily imagine predicting it over Fatherland.

Prima Facie: I still have so many doubts about the idea of turning a one-woman show into a movie, but the role is so good for Erivo that I’ll keep predicting her getting in.

No One Cares: I’m not expecting this to be a huge contender, but Giamatti is beloved and seems to have a juicy role, and the Supporting Actor category is pretty empty, so I’ll predict him taking the 5th slot.

As for miscellaneous other movies - I’m not predicting Jack of Spades because I think Joel Coen will wait for Cannes next year to release it and because I don’t want to have two movies without distributors in my predictions, if it gets a distributor and goes to the fall fests I’ll probably predict it. I have no faith in The Social Reckoning being good, but it could get an acting nom or two if the field is weak enough. I really don’t think that CODA winning Best Picture means anything for Being Heumann’s chances - CODA winning was mostly a pandemic-related fluke in a weak year. I’m not currently predicting Hope being a breakout contender but it would be fun if it did, same goes for Sheep in a Box. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York absolutely has a chance at a Best Actor nom but the field is way too stacked for me to predict that right now. The Invite could definitely get an Adapted Screenplay nom and maybe an acting nom, I’d have it in 6th in screenplay and in 7th in Supporting Actor after my predicted 5 and Jeremy Strong (and it's also possible that No One Cares and Primetime both end up going nowhere and The Invite just takes Giamatti's spot in Supporting Actor and Primetime's spot in Adapted Screenplay and Picture). And I’m really hoping Behemoth! will be a contender but I’m taking it out until we learn literally anything about the premise since right now all we know is that it’s about a cellist.

Jamelle Bouie has a really interesting video on what's wrong with the Supreme Court and how it can be fixed. Towards the end of the video he starts going through ideas for Supreme Court reform and proposes a bunch of ideas that I hadn't heard of before that would go beyond simply expanding the court or adding term limits.