It isnt “panic time” yet for Jackson supporters, but Collins has an advantage, we’ve seen how she outperformed the polls against Gideon. 2026 is a different situation, though, particularly with undecided voters.
Disclaimer because someone commented it in another sub: I know Sara Gideon is alive😂
Jackson is winning amongst women, a group that made up about 60% of the electorate and swung towards Collins when she beat Gideon in 2020.
Talarico leads in the most recent poll, but internals offer us insight into dissatisfaction within the Republican party. A data point that may be the lead story on election night
Breaking down the race and Moulton’s claims that this race is a “statistical dead heat”
u/blais_it here. My profile shows “This account has been banned” to logged-out visitors, but I see nothing unusual when logged in and received no message or email.
I think this was triggered by sharing one newsletter article across several politics subreddits in a short time window earlier today. That was a misjudgment on my part — I didn’t realize how that pattern reads to the spam filter.
The content wasn’t the problem; r/fivethirtyeight mods approved one of the posts. Going forward I’ll space submissions out, use text posts instead of link posts, and build up participation in those communities first.
Requesting a review of whether this can be lifted. Thanks.
I made a fun website where the 2026 toss-up senate races can be live tracked using polls and historical baselines to make needles for each race! On election night, these will (in theory) update with live results. The “Wire” section sends updates about candidates under or over-performing in specific counties. I also write analysis which is housed on my substack and on this site. Its a nerdy thing I’ve been building and I haven’t found a community to share it with yet, I hope you all like it :)