.. despite the fact that kospi ended in negative territory again today.
For once, we will probably benefit from a 00066 strategic move to up their share price.
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CPI figures today at 8:30AM ET...
IMO, even if the monthly figure misses the core cpi 0.2% but the annualised core rate still drops to or below the expected 2.5%, the initial negative opening gap might be bought up by midday traders.
Hope for a favourable report though (ideally: core 0.1-0.2% monthly and say 2.35% annualised) especially today when kospi FINALLY ended "heavily" in green territory (circuit breaker activated because kospi went up more than 5% today... can you believe that??).
What do you guys think?
This is an argument that I had many times with unexperienced investors. But the history shows that market cap is relative and what is "a lot" today" is small 10 or 20 years into the future.
In 2006 BAC had the largest market cap of 254bn. I bet that at the time ppl were not in the frame of mind to entertain a 1tr market cap will ever happen. This is the type of thinking now when ppl say NVDA can't grow too much beyond that 5tr. It can and it will... and many others will follow.
Hi guys
My take: Kospi pe ratio is 15.77 today. The 5 and 10 yr avg of pe is 10.7 and 10.3.. that was before the AI premium. So, the pe ratio today is around the area that should be given the AI premium ( samsung and skhy increased earnings outlook and yoy increases, h/s capex etc). In simple terms this os where kospi can comfortably sit and stabilise before the next leg up. The worst I think, is over. There will be small variations here and there but the days of -30% to -40% in korean stocks are over. If kospi stabilises, nasdaq tech will stabilise allowing the fundamentals to resurface as a decision making tool. Bodes well for sndk, mu but also nvda
The Koreans are putting in place measures that are designed for Kospi to recover in time. In particular pt.4 in the attached which is the infusion of liquidity. Once the leveraged accounts are liquidated and measures take effect, incl. pt 4, I can see kospi up again. If kospi is up, nasdaq will follow.
The next 2 weeks will be critical.
I also see nvda, sndk and mu starting to recover since nothing negative on fundamentals (quite opposite). This semi and memory drop is a structural problem (generated in Kospi) not a fundamental one.
If you understand that, it may alleviate some of your pain... we've been hit a lot, let's now hope for the market to
stabilise and
recover.
Have seen this from 30 years in investing. We are at the beginning of the creation of a new industry, valuations are decent (so not the Internet bubble where valuations were through the roof) and I don't see AI adoption topping anytime soon.
Institutions are manipulating this also so that they are "in" cheap on all tech stocks of consequence: semiconductor and memory chips. But they can manipulate that much because they are playing with ppl's pensions etc... so smth gotta give here. Hopefully up from here.
https://english.mofe.go.kr/pc/selectTbPressCenterDtl.do?boardCd=N0001&seq=6451
Given the msft samsung google results plus koreans closing leveraged accts i think that we are about at the bottom. I see some recovery from here onward. Held through this mayhem. Samsung results in particular will help us and sndk. I also think that kospi will start some green days given that the liquidation of leveraged accts is well underway
Many of you may think that SKHY results missed consensus and that the entire memory sector is doomed. I argue the opposite: the SKHY were excellent Let me explain.
Korean cos don’t provide fwd guidance when they report the earnings. So they "failed" one analyst's consensus by a snarrow margin BUT that consensus is bogus simply because analysts do not have anything to work with ( no guidance). So this is why you won't see many analysts venture to place consensus on Korean stocks. The results speak for themselves.
Revenue jumped 257% year on year while operating profit grew nearly 557% year on year,.
Compared with the previous quarter, revenue increased 51% while operating profit gained 61%.
00066 will surely go down heavily on kospi and sndk and mu will follow today... simply because of korean's leveraged accounts and the mayhem with the margin calls in korea. Results were solid and msft and meta will confirm that via their capex
From here post tomorrow, and post msft, meta and amzn ER, I expect sndk and mu to regain some of the ground.
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/sk-hynix-announces-2q26-financial-225600202.html
Many of you may think that SKHY results missed consensus and that the entire memory sector is doomed. I argue the opposite: the SKHY were excellent Let me explain.
Korean cos don’t provide fwd guidance when they report the earnings. So they "failed" one analyst's consensus by a snarrow margin BUT that consensus is bogus simply because analysts do not have anything to work with ( no guidance). So this is why you won't see many analysts venture to place consensus on Korean stocks. The results speak for themselves.
Revenue jumped 257% year on year while operating profit grew nearly 557% year on year,.
Compared with the previous quarter, revenue increased 51% while operating profit gained 61%.
00066 will surely go down heavily on kospi and sndk and mu will follow today... simply because of korean's leveraged accounts and the mayhem with the margin calls in korea. Results were solid and msft and meta will confirm that via their capex
From here post tomorrow, and post msft, meta and amzn ER, I expect sndk and mu to regain some of the ground.
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/sk-hynix-announces-2q26-financial-225600202.html
Korean cos don’t provide fwd guidance but these results today were excellent. 00066 should end up in green, hence IN THEORY kospi should end up in green ... but irrespective of that we ( Mu) should see a nice bounce.
Tomorrow skhy (00066) reports snd kospi is already collapsed for all intents and purposes… i am still holding through this mayhem but it appears that nasdaq ignores all fundamentals and only follows kospi… which is a gambling index ( and we brought it upon ourselves by allowing skhy to list on nasdaq). I hope that tomorrow’s ER from kospi will reinject some life back into both sndk and mu. Them the next teo days with cape announcements from msft and amazon ( and meta)… both stocks run at a fwd pe of 5-6… id like to believe that the worst is over.
Today nasdaq will most likely open and close in green. However bear in mind that kospi and 00066 closed -5.3% and -8.x% lower, so let’s see what sndk does. My guess is that it will follow kospi. This is the direct result of the regulators who dod not understand the ramifications of allowing skhy to list on nasdaq. I would be happy to be wrong about today’s behaviour of both sndk and mu. Sadly, I see this disconnect to continue well into 2027 and part of 2028.
205bn capex from googl…. Last earnings they announced 180-190… so a substantial increase. Let’s see if we fly to the moon. I wrote in my previous post yesterday that the level for lift off , imo, should be 250bn… but 205bn is quoted decent.
Google earnings today after hours!
with GOOGL earning at the horizon, will be a "lift off" for NVDA toward $220 (and others such as sndk, mu). ... so fingers crossed.
TSMC is set to raise prices for both advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027, Nikkei Asia reported on Tuesday, citing multiple sources.
Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
(Reporting by Shubham Kalia in Bengaluru)
If this is true how do you see this affecting SNDK (and MU) to start with?
TSMC is set to raise prices for both advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027, Nikkei Asia reported on Tuesday, citing multiple sources.
Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
(Reporting by Shubham Kalia in Bengaluru)
If this is true, to start with, how do you see affecting NVDA and AVGO on one side as well as the memory stocks like SNDK and MU to start with?
This is the result of allowing sh kynix to list on nasdaq. We are now subservient to kospi and korean retail investors who, without tax on capital gains are the most erratic traders in the world. God help us ( sndk mu and nvda). We used to trade on fundamentals ( most of us anyway) on what we call “ the thesis”…. Well i have news gor you: the thesis changed, kospi will dictate nasdaq behaviour for years to come. Just appalling
I expect nvda to do well today based on asml earnings
Great earnings, looking forward to see nvda, sndk and MU flying today
