Likelihood vs Impact

Shared by u/Blackcatwizard today, from a report by the Government of Canada, comparing the likelihood of certain events and the impact of certain events.

The three events with the highest likelihood are

  • "People cannot tell what is true and what is not"
  • "Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse"
  • "People cannot afford to live on their own"

The three events with the highest impact are

  • "World war breaks out"
  • "Biodiversity is lost and ecosystems collapse"
  • "Civil war erupts in the United States"

I believe this report is meant to be specific to Canadians, but what they're considering to be important feels highly relevant to users of this subreddit.

Anyway, original image and link to the "Disruptions on the Horizon" report at https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1vnc0uj/comment/p3ifg52/

reddit.com
u/fitforthepolycrisis — 6 days ago

UK suppressed terrifying climate report

The UK government itself wrote a report that says
"Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair)." with "high" confidence.

"Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse. Without major intervention to reverse the current trend, this is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond."

PDF link to the report: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0eae719d837d69afc7de/National_security_assessment_-_global_biodiversity_loss__ecosystem_collapse_and_national_security.pdf

"The UK government didn’t want you to see this report on ecosystem collapse. I’m not surprised" - George Monbiot at the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/27/uk-government-report-ecosystem-collapse-foi-national-security

"Suppressed climate report warned of mass migration and nuclear war" - https://www.thetimes.com/article/4a1c136c-f01d-4ecd-abfd-14621b47ea45

reddit.com
u/fitforthepolycrisis — 7 days ago

16" rims on '24 wave?

Hi all. thinking about getting a spare tire, and if I do that figuring why not get two and mount snow/AT tires on them (for light gravel camping or going skiing). With that, it makes sense to size down an inch (and get that sweet, sweet sidewall). Has anyone fit 16" wheels to their Niro EVs?

reddit.com
u/fitforthepolycrisis — 10 days ago
▲ 426 r/oregon

USDA Confirms Detection of Classical Scrapie in a Slaughtered Sheep

USDA Confirms Detection of Classical Scrapie in a Slaughtered Sheep

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed classical scrapie in a sheep slaughtered at a facility in Oregon. Final diagnostic results and genotype analysis were completed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL), with confirmatory testing indicating classical scrapie. As required, APHIS has notified the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) of the confirmed detection. 

Classical scrapie is a fatal, degenerative prion disease of sheep and goats. Prior to this confirmation, the United States had gone more than 5 years without a case. The United States was positioned to meet WOAH’s 7‑year benchmark for self‑declared scrapie freedom in January 2028. This confirmed detection could reset that timeline and may push the earliest possible date for national scrapie‑free status to approximately 2033.  

APHIS and State animal health officials have initiated an epidemiological investigation to determine the flock of origin. The affected animal did not have an ear tag, which may limit traceability and highlights the critical importance of strong animal identification practices nationwide. To support the investigation, NVSL will conduct tissue‑matching and parentage testing on the affected sheep and two additional animals from the same accession.

APHIS expects minimal impact on trade. Most countries restrict live animal exports only from affected flocks or premises, and products such as wool remain unaffected.

USDA encourages producers to reinforce key practices that have advanced scrapie eradication efforts nationwide:

  • Strict compliance with ear tagging and traceability requirements to ensure exposed animals can be accurately tracked.
  • Robust surveillance participation, including submission of clinical suspects and routine monitoring.
  • Use of genetically resistant breeding stock, which significantly reduces disease susceptibility and depopulation needs.
  • Continued partnership with APHIS and State officials to support investigation and long‑term freedom efforts.

More information about scrapie and APHIS’ eradication program is available at www.aphis.usda.gov.

aphis.usda.gov
u/fitforthepolycrisis — 10 days ago
▲ 320 r/Victron+1 crossposts

Fishy project finished!

I wanted to share this finished project!

Thanks to a lot of input and advice from folks in this sub I was able to build a floating power supply in the middle of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest. It’s now happily powering a set of underwater salmon counting video cameras and beaming all the data back to town.

Thank you all for helping me figure out how to put this project together!

And for anyone wondering why it’s on floats…..bears destroy everything they touch……🐻

u/FishFondler907 — 29 days ago