u/iloveaccounting64

https://preview.redd.it/gtz9zlpyys2h1.jpg?width=1163&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cc65b6b14c42c9ffec7658ee15b10173354d65f

I learned my lesson from selling a covered call on AMD in 2025 (called away at $210) and selling a covered call on GOOG in 2024 (called away at $165..) so this year I made sure to hold my urge and try not sell covered calls. I thought PANW was safe cuz it was software but security software isn't exposed to AI threat so I thought I was being smart. Long story short, I only sold 1 PANW call 2 months ago at 0.1 delta I thought it would expire worthless or at worse, I will just need to roll it out a few times and wait for a pullback. The fucker never pulled back and I rolled once before this thing really went to val hallah...

The stupid market plays this stupid joke on me again. It pumped PANW so hard like it was a semiconductor stock and it never had a red day. I don't know what to say. BUT this time I aint closing this position, I will keep rolling and rolling till this stock comes down and my covered call expires worthless. I will not back down!

Just bored from working from home today and wanted to hear some interesting stories from you rich guys.

My definition of rich here is that you made 1 million plus from any industries (investing, trading, career, even lottery).

Just curious which part of the journey was luck and which part of the journey isn’t. Which key decision was life or death and how you survived through the peaks and troughs of this ride. And most importantly, are you happy now?

Listened to Steve Eisman’s interview with the sell side analyst covering fico.

It doesn’t sound too good for fico. Its moat was a regulation engineered moat.and they have lost that moat.

The company hiked prices from 20 cents a pull in 2022 to 10 dollars a pull now. And it’s now competing with its own customer and the competitor charges 1 dollar.

Fico is projected to lose 30% market share by 2027 and the market is pricing fico as if they won’t lose further market shares.

I don’t know if it’s a good idea to short at this price but that interview surely deterred me from buying fico.

I’ve seen many posts today where frustrated traders complain about NVDA going nowhere since last year. Well, first of all, that’s not true, you just have a terrible fomo entry. And secondly, we need to dive a bit deeper and go beyond price actions. So I want to share my 2 cents.

You are looking at a 5 trillion dollar company that the market expects to grow 100% at 70% gross margin. It’s almost priced for perfection. Of course a double beat isn’t enough.

But that being said, this company executes perfectly, data center spending is expected to double this year and will accelerate into 2027/2028, and data center revenue confirms this trend (120% ex-China growth). So fundamentally, NVDA will head to 10 trillion market cap. And we look at it this way to justify the 10T:

Generally speaking, stock price for NVDA have and will follow topline growth (unless it’s a multiple compression story like service now - which isn’t the case for NVDA as our thesis is wave 2 AI infra buildout into 2030). So if data center spending doubles -> NVDA outgrows that rate as they have more pricing power and demand is high enough for NVDA to hike prices excessively (demand is crazy and NVDA has more accretive margin than many think). This means stock price will grow under this expectation (many people focus on stock price but you need to think in terms of topline growth from compounding effect from data center spending growth).

This makes the story easier if you are an investor. But if you are trader, you need to be careful. The best business in the world is priced that way. Sell the news post earnings is inevitable. The 15-minute morning pump is simply because sell side analysts have their upgrades, not because institutional money is moving the name. Last quarter, the stock corrected 7% post earnings. What makes you think NVDA will just launch from here? Eyeballing it, I think we will see a 3-5% pullback at minimum - and that’s around $210-$215.

Anyways, stop being impatient and just be patient.

I hope you are ok! But unless the NVDA dividend hike attracts pension funds to buy NVDA to 6 trillion by Friday, you are most likely financially cooked.

I want to sell puts with my cash and I have around 20k usd cash in my account. So far I wrote two 30 dte puts taking around 13k of the cash levels. I’m curious how much cash do yall sell puts on and if you just keep premium as cash or you reinvest right away?

APH is my favorite name in the entire data center secular trend value chain.

And I can explain what they do in 1 sentence: Basically they sell electronic components that transmits power for data centers under various stressful environments. (Products include: interconnect systems, sensors, and specialty cables)

This is your picks and shovels play in this secular trend of AI infrastructure build out - which is going to be longer than most people can imagine.

This business is incredibly stable and was known for being the “consumer staples” within the industry. There are a few green flags/main moats I like about APH that a compounder typically has (I’m gonna list them below as I’m too lazy to type in paragraphs / before I get into why stock is down and valuations).

Green Flags:

- Hyper decentralized structure with over 130 autonomous business units.

- Smart segment/product mix: APH has 3 business segments all with good growth profile and margins. Think of a split between: AI data centers/military&aerospace/automotive, medical, and others - I like diversification here as APH will act less like a monolithic tech manufacturer and more like a compounder.

Product strategy wise, they avoid commoditized consumer products and focus on high mix & low volume. This means they dominate in specialized markets - if you are an AI data center, APH has you covered with the specific type of cable you need. A cable is cheap to a data center but will cause a big damage if it fails - this is APH’s moat because data centers will buy from them and won’t switch.

This is one of the main thesis: they have pricing power because of this.

- High switching cost: another main thesis for APH. APH doesn’t just sell parts, they work with customer on the power delivery infrastructure for 2-3 years before product even launches.

- Growth profile: perfect mix of organic growth (a third of historic growth) and M&A growth (two thirds). Their M&A playbook has not only been accretive (ROIC goes up over time), but also helped them scale cost down (they get raw materials such as copper and precious metals for plating cheaper than anyone else).

- Capital light business: CAPEX is 3-4% of sales. This is insane. I love businesses that grow without needing a ton of additional investment each year.

Fundamentals:

They are a 153 billion market cap company making around 26 billion in topline (ttm) and makes free cashflow of 831 million.

2025 growth was incredible: 51.7% topline growth / 86% operating income growth / 43% FCF growth.

Segment was split between: communications/harsh environment solutions/interconnect&sensors. Revenue was split between roughly: $12b/6b/5b. Communications is basically half the revenue and grew 91% in 2025 - basically the AI data center spending boom is reflected here. Operating margins are around 20%-30% across the 3 segments.

Q1 2026 numbers were even better than FY25 which higher growth numbers.

Fundamentals are beyond great here so no further comments from me. And I align my thoughts with Jensen Huang - AI infra build out phase 2 is underway and I will gladly chill on this stock.

Price action and Valuation:

Price has come down quite a bit and the stock is down 7.5% ytd but still almost doubled since January 2025. So it’s not cheap - in this context it’s a good thing. The secular trend is behind us here, I am ok with buying dips in a bull market - this is not like buying a value trap such as PYPL.

I think the recent drop is from minor margin compression from acquisition of CommScope CCS. This created this opportunity for the dip previously mentioned. APH’s historic playbook typically shows recovery of margin within 12-18 months of M&A so I get more excited at the godly operating leverage coupled with explosive topline growth for 2027.

Mults aren’t cheap - good compounders rarely are and if you don’t buy them at a reasonable price, you never will own them. Forwards PE of 26x isn’t crazy but not cheap, but it’s where I call reasonable. And you factor in forward PEG of 1x, which is reasonable.

Chart reads ok too, sitting at a major support in both daily and weekly candles. I’m ok buying here.

My position:
I sold weekly $115 cash secured puts with 30% of my portfolio (almost all of my cash position). Certainly hope to get assigned shares as I will get an 8% discount but if not I’m not complaining as I’m earning almost 3% per week collecting premium.

APH is my favorite name in the entire data center secular trend value chain.

And I can explain what they do in 1 sentence: Basically they sell electronic components that transmits power for data centers under various stressful environments. (Products include: interconnect systems, sensors, and specialty cables)

This is your picks and shovels play in this secular trend of AI infrastructure build out - which is going to be longer than most people can imagine.

This business is incredibly stable and was known for being the “consumer staples” within the industry. There are a few green flags/main moats I like about APH that a compounder typically has (I’m gonna list them below as I’m too lazy to type in paragraphs / before I get into why stock is down and valuations).

Green Flags:

- Hyper decentralized structure with over 130 autonomous business units.

- Smart segment/product mix: APH has 3 business segments all with good growth profile and margins. Think of a split between: AI data centers/military&aerospace/automotive, medical, and others - I like diversification here as APH will act less like a monolithic tech manufacturer and more like a compounder.

Product strategy wise, they avoid commoditized consumer products and focus on high mix & low volume. This means they dominate in specialized markets - if you are an AI data center, APH has you covered with the specific type of cable you need. A cable is cheap to a data center but will cause a big damage if it fails - this is APH’s moat because data centers will buy from them and won’t switch.

This is one of the main thesis: they have pricing power because of this.

- High switching cost: another main thesis for APH. APH doesn’t just sell parts, they work with customer on the power delivery infrastructure for 2-3 years before product even launches.

- Growth profile: perfect mix of organic growth (a third of historic growth) and M&A growth (two thirds). Their M&A playbook has not only been accretive (ROIC goes up over time), but also helped them scale cost down (they get raw materials such as copper and precious metals for plating cheaper than anyone else).

- Capital light business: CAPEX is 3-4% of sales. This is insane. I love businesses that grow without needing a ton of additional investment each year.

Fundamentals:

They are a 153 billion market cap company making around 26 billion in topline (ttm) and makes free cashflow of 831 million.

2025 growth was incredible: 51.7% topline growth / 86% operating income growth / 43% FCF growth.

Segment was split between: communications/harsh environment solutions/interconnect&sensors. Revenue was split between roughly: $12b/6b/5b. Communications is basically half the revenue and grew 91% in 2025 - basically the AI data center spending boom is reflected here. Operating margins are around 20%-30% across the 3 segments.

Q1 2026 numbers were even better than FY25 which higher growth numbers.

Fundamentals are beyond great here so no further comments from me. And I align my thoughts with Jensen Huang - AI infra build out phase 2 is underway and I will gladly chill on this stock.

Price action and Valuation:

Price has come down quite a bit and the stock is down 7.5% ytd but still almost doubled since January 2025. So it’s not cheap - in this context it’s a good thing. The secular trend is behind us here, I am ok with buying dips in a bull market - this is not like buying a value trap such as PYPL.

I think the recent drop is from minor margin compression from acquisition of CommScope CCS. This created this opportunity for the dip previously mentioned. APH’s historic playbook typically shows recovery of margin within 12-18 months of M&A so I get more excited at the godly operating leverage coupled with explosive topline growth for 2027.

Mults aren’t cheap - good compounders rarely are and if you don’t buy them at a reasonable price, you never will own them. Forwards PE of 26x isn’t crazy but not cheap, but it’s where I call reasonable. And you factor in forward PEG of 1x, which is reasonable.

Chart reads ok too, sitting at a major support in both daily and weekly candles. I’m ok buying here.

APH is my favorite name in the entire data center secular trend value chain.

And I can explain what they do in 1 sentence: Basically they sell electronic components that transmits power for data centers under various stressful environments. (Products include: interconnect systems, sensors, and specialty cables)

This is your picks and shovels play in this secular trend of AI infrastructure build out - which is going to be longer than most people can imagine.

This business is incredibly stable and was known for being the “consumer staples” within the industry. There are a few green flags/main moats I like about APH that a compounder typically has (I’m gonna list them below as I’m too lazy to type in paragraphs / before I get into why stock is down and valuations).

Green Flags:

- Hyper decentralized structure with over 130 autonomous business units.

- Smart segment/product mix: APH has 3 business segments all with good growth profile and margins. Think of a split between: AI data centers/military&aerospace/automotive, medical, and others - I like diversification here as APH will act less like a monolithic tech manufacturer and more like a compounder.

Product strategy wise, they avoid commoditized consumer products and focus on high mix & low volume. This means they dominate in specialized markets - if you are an AI data center, APH has you covered with the specific type of cable you need. A cable is cheap to a data center but will cause a big damage if it fails - this is APH’s moat because data centers will buy from them and won’t switch.

This is one of the main thesis: they have pricing power because of this.

- High switching cost: another main thesis for APH. APH doesn’t just sell parts, they work with customer on the power delivery infrastructure for 2-3 years before product even launches.

- Growth profile: perfect mix of organic growth (a third of historic growth) and M&A growth (two thirds). Their M&A playbook has not only been accretive (ROIC goes up over time), but also helped them scale cost down (they get raw materials such as copper and precious metals for plating cheaper than anyone else).

- Capital light business: CAPEX is 3-4% of sales. This is insane. I love businesses that grow without needing a ton of additional investment each year.

Fundamentals:

They are a 153 billion market cap company making around 26 billion in topline (ttm) and makes free cashflow of 831 million.

2025 growth was incredible: 51.7% topline growth / 86% operating income growth / 43% FCF growth.

Segment was split between: communications/harsh environment solutions/interconnect&sensors. Revenue was split between roughly: $12b/6b/5b. Communications is basically half the revenue and grew 91% in 2025 - basically the AI data center spending boom is reflected here. Operating margins are around 20%-30% across the 3 segments.

Q1 2026 numbers were even better than FY25 which higher growth numbers.

Fundamentals are beyond great here so no further comments from me. And I align my thoughts with Jensen Huang - AI infra build out phase 2 is underway and I will gladly chill on this stock.

Price action and Valuation:

Price has come down quite a bit and the stock is down 7.5% ytd but still almost doubled since January 2025. So it’s not cheap - in this context it’s a good thing. The secular trend is behind us here, I am ok with buying dips in a bull market - this is not like buying a value trap such as PYPL.

I think the recent drop is from minor margin compression from acquisition of CommScope CCS. This created this opportunity for the dip previously mentioned. APH’s historic playbook typically shows recovery of margin within 12-18 months of M&A so I get more excited at the godly operating leverage coupled with explosive topline growth for 2027.

Mults aren’t cheap - good compounders rarely are and if you don’t buy them at a reasonable price, you never will own them. Forwards PE of 26x isn’t crazy but not cheap, but it’s where I call reasonable. And you factor in forward PEG of 1x, which is reasonable.

Chart reads ok too, sitting at a major support in both daily and weekly candles. I’m ok buying here.

My position:
I sold monthly $115 cash secured puts with 30% of my portfolio (almost all of my cash position). Certainly hope to get assigned shares as I will get an 8% discount but if not I’m not complaining as I’m earning almost 3% per month collecting premium.

What are the odds that someone pass the exam with no studying?

I told her she has a 2.5% chance of passing if she just review a mock exam answer key and memorize all the conceptual questions and guess all the calculations unless she sees easy formula calculation she knows such as CAPM.

Let’s hope she passes lol that would be epic.

For context: she didn’t have time to study and couldn’t postpone as this sitting was the product of her latest available postponement as she is only showing up because it allows her a free re test if she doesn’t pass.

I traded 0dte in a gambling account and turned 300 into 2k usd this week. I want it to double or even reach 10k without having to take 0dte kind of risk. Are there any cheap stocks that I buy leaps on that can do this?

PYPL bulls like to argue PayPal’s “moat” being Venmo and Braintree - but what moat? Tell me why these 2 products make PayPal defend and gain market share? PayPal’s own lines of businesses are cannibalizing each other.

Historic revenue growth is a joke when you price in further market share deteriorating.

Share buybacks only offsets SBC. Keep convincing yourself this company is a self cannibalist that can buy itself into a multi bagger - it cannot and it will not maintain the same multiples.

Management team sucks and the thesis of : New CEO seems to know what they are doing is a lame and lazy excuse and was used on every new CEO. And corporate culture has been garbage and no top talent would join. This is a structural issue with the business - much bigger than ur share buyback and stable revenue fantasy. The company will do worse and worse and the stock price will follow.

Even the clown Michael burry bought - well the same buy bought GameStop and sold for a loss and lost more money shorting NVDA. He makes more money selling monthly subscriptions than his trading activities.

In 2025, NVDA dropped to around $80 a share and rallied with the market to the $180-$200 range and traded sideways for about 6 months.

This year had a similar beginning of year set up with NVDA selling off to the low 160s before rallying to ATH. I think there is very little doubt we break $6T market cap and upwards but the larger this company gets, the harder it is to move in terms of %. So eyeballing it, it feels that we get to the $260-280 range and trade sideways for a good while.

Eyeball: SPX has around 8% more to reach 8,000 and another 15% gets NVDA to $260 which sounds about right with SaaS and other sectors dragging the index.

Any chance I might be wrong and NVDA could shoot up even more? I do know NVDA has more pricing power than most realize but don’t really know when this will move the needle.

Even META - the company that got all the hate for AI CAPEX - went up today. And MSFT decides to go red for another day. Let that sink in..