u/kentonbryantmusic

Coming from the US I’m used to large amounts of speed/pace figures and everything else pretty much laid out there for you.

From what I’ve gathered, most people are using is timeform/geegeez/etc.

I’m building past performances and plot style charts for all the UK tracks. Speed and full pace figures for all the tracks.

Anyone interested in buying some cards? Did it for my own personal wagering, but wouldn’t mind making a few bucks back to offset the data cost.

Happy to DM what they look like.

I’d love to be able to have the ai log into my account and watch replay videos and give me analysis for it.

Claude is too slow. Needs to be a fast frame rate. Any ideas?

I’m looking for advice on what my next move should be.
I have a 2026 GMC Sierra 3500 dually that has now been in the shop 5 times for the same repair, and the issue still is not fixed. It has currently been in the shop since June 4th, so it has been down for over 30 days this time alone.
I already have an open case with GM and have been waiting on the repurchase process, but I keep getting vague answers like “we are checking with everyone” or “we’re waiting on an update.” Nothing actually seems to be moving forward.
At this point, I’m not looking for another general status update. I want the repurchase moved forward, a real timeline, and someone at GM to actually take ownership of the case.
For anyone who has gone through a GM buyback/repurchase or lemon law situation:
What should I do next to get this moving?
Should I file with BBB Auto Line?
Should I get a lemon law attorney involved now?
Is there a specific department, phrase, or escalation path that actually gets GM to respond?
Any advice from people who have dealt with GM repurchase delays would be appreciated.

I’m looking for advice on what my next move should be.
I have a brand new 2026 GMC Sierra 3500 dually that has now been in the shop 5 times for the same repair, and the issue still is not fixed. It has currently been in the shop since June 4th, so it has been down for over 30 days this time alone.
I already have an open case with GM and have been waiting on the repurchase process, but I keep getting vague answers like “we are checking with everyone” or “we’re waiting on an update.” Nothing actually seems to be moving forward.
At this point, I’m not looking for another general status update. I want the repurchase moved forward, a real timeline, and someone at GM to actually take ownership of the case.
For anyone who has gone through a GM buyback/repurchase or lemon law situation:
What should I do next to get this moving?
Should I file with BBB Auto Line?
Should I get a lemon law attorney involved now?
Is there a specific department, phrase, or escalation path that actually gets GM to respond?
Any advice from people who have dealt with GM repurchase delays would be appreciated.

I've built a quantitative model for Hong Kong horse racing (Sha Tin and Happy Valley) and bet the pari-mutuel pools.

It's built on a set of custom speed and pace figures — proprietary, not the public/commercial numbers — plus historical data and connection angles. The figures cover both how fast a horse is and how it gets there (its early/late energy distribution and run style), and they're the core of the whole system.

The pipeline. End to end, it ingests the figures and form data per card, turns them into calibrated win and place probabilities for every runner (they sum correctly across the race), layers in connection angles and a race-shape/pace read, and blends the result against the live tote to produce a fair-odds line. From there it flags where my number disagrees with the market and I bet selectively into the pools. It's a full, reproducible, repeatable workflow — not a one-off backtest.

The evidence base. None of this rests on a small sample or a single lucky meeting. The model is calibrated and validated over years of full results — many thousands of runners across the full range of distances, classes, and both tracks — with proper out-of-sample, walk-forward testing (fit on the past, graded on races it hadn't seen) and split-half stability checks. When I say something works or doesn't, it's across a deep, labeled history, not a one-off backtest.

Where it stands. The model is accurate and well-calibrated. Its top selection wins around the same rate as the market favourite and places roughly 45% of the time; on probability scoring it beats a naive field prior, and the calibration is honest (a 1-in-10 horse really wins about 1 in 10). As a fair-odds and form tool it's strong.

The economics. It's a high-takeout pool (~17.5% on win/place), but I bet through a rebate program that returns ~7.3% on win/place turnover and ~9.3% on exotics. So the real hurdle isn't the full takeout — it's clearing the net ~10% after rebate. That's the number any signal has to beat.

The wall. It doesn't beat the closing price in the win pool. When I test whether the model adds anything after accounting for the public's price, the answer keeps coming back ~zero — whatever I put in seems to already be in the market by post time. And where the model most disagrees with the market, the market tends to be right, so its "overlays" don't hold up over time.

Where I'm sitting now. Flat betting the model's selections at tote prices, results land roughly where the math predicts: a small net loss, in the rebate-cushioned single digits — i.e. the rebate is doing the heavy lifting, not the model. Good enough to grind near break-even, not yet a real edge over the closing pool. Accurate, but not profitable on its own merits.

What I'm looking for…

Has anyone found information that genuinely adds something the closing price doesn't already contain, and how do you convince yourself it's real out-of-sample rather than a backtest artifact?

General thoughts on getting from "accurate" to "profitable" against a sharp closing pool.

Good references or thinking on the problem.
I'm glad to share results and how I validate. I'm not looking to hand over my inputs or methods, or to take anyone else's — just learning from people who've gotten past the "accurate but not profitable" wall.

This is a long term project so happy to tinker with it until I get closer to the result I’m looking for.

Thanks!

I know nothing about the cars other than I like them, love the FSD idea, and will be using it to commute around town.

Wife has a big gas burner yukon for long trips, but feel like an idiot driving around a big diesel truck as a daily driver. Decided I’m going to park it at the farm and get a Tesla for riding around town.

Are there any features on a brand new one I’m going to totally miss out on by buying a 24/25 lightly used one?

Thanks!!!

Thanks

Don’t mind the timeform speed figures but I greatly miss having pace figures to set the race up and find lone speed/closers.

Anyone know of a place that has them??

Thanks

I’m always interested in how long term successful players manage bankroll and structure their wagers daily, weekly, monthly, etc.

I think this is where 99% of players need the most help!

Thanks for any input

Im using proprietary speed and pace figures, but I know most don’t have or use them.

I’m trying to get a better idea on how the market, without figures, is making decisions in Hong Kong.