u/lsmith77

The fundamental premise is that the Nuggets want to keep Watson and also need more bench depth which are conflicting needs. Jazz need a center and Mavs want young guards (ideally PGs). IMHO the main sticking point is the Nuggets: Who do they choose to move in order to keep Watson? Do they just pay the tax (seems unlikely) But if they believe that both AG and Braun will bounce back exactly to their full potential neither of these trades make sense.

Edit: If AG is more likely to return healthy (but below his past level/reliability as otherwise Nuggets would not trade him), one option could also be for Blazers to take him on, while sending Jrue to the Mavs. Obviously in that case AG would net a FRP.

Cam Johnson is the obvious player to move and swapping him with PJ already frees up a couple of million and gives them more defense while Jokic should get PJ the same looks that he got with Luka. The rest of the players are mostly there for depth and to balance out the Cam-PJ swap. To make the money work they either give up Braun or AG. Both held the Nuggets back due to injury last season. AG is of course the best player in this trade and the Nuggets would only do this if they don’t believe he can get reliably healthy. For Braun it is more reasonable to assume he could bounce back but still the contract is clearly an overpay they cannot afford. On top of that they have little draft capital, hence they are not going for Naji instead of Martin.

Jazz are getting a good center and give up Collier who now sits behind Keyonte and Daryn. The other players they give up are filler to make the money work and to give the Nuggets depth.

Mavericks are thin at center after this trade with Gafford gone. So it only makes sense if they want to play Morez at the 5 with Coop+Zacc as the rest of their front court starters to begin the season. Collier gives them a young PG, while Cam gives them another shooter with size. They could give Aaron all the time in the world to get healthy but would prefer Braun even if he is overpaid and dealt with injuries.

In terms of additional compensation we can argue about SRP but IMHO no FRP would be needed (again Nuggets do this because they lost faith in AG or Braun).

Marc Stein:

> Dallas recently added Raptors executive Patrick Engelbrecht, as expected, after Engelbrecht had served as Toronto's director of global scouting and international affairs under Masai Ujiri when Ujiri was Toronto's president and vice chairman.

Source

The Heat has interest in adding Thompson whether LeBron James joins the Heat or not, a source said.

Per a source, the Heat would like to add another scoring wing player with size to supplement Andrew Wiggins, Tim Hardaway Jr., second-round pick Ryan Conwell and third-year player Pelle Larsson.

Source

For draft compensation see the end of the post.

Denver has waived Valanciunas to get cap relief to be able to retain Watson. But it means they are also missing a 5 to play behind (or even together with) Jokic. This trade aims to get them a 5 that does what Jokic doesn’t do. Obviously it only makes sense if they believe the two can play together on the floor because otherwise it’s too much salary at the 5. Martin actually played decent towards the tail end of the Mavericks season. While his shooting remains a concern, he is a plus defender, especially for POA defense, can dribble the ball and be a connective passer. So he also fills a position of need for the Nuggets. They only get minimal cap relief through this trade but do gain depth via this two for one and get off of Braun’s contract.

Dallas obviously has insider knowledge of Portland through Mike Schmitz and will only do this trade if they believe in Scoot finding his potential in a new location that isn’t overwhelmed with guards. While he has shown flashes of his offensive potential, in Portland he would be relegated to be a defensive role player since they have so much offensive guard fire power. Hansen of course was a major disappointment in his first season but again Mike’s insight knowledge would determine if he still feels like he can make it. With Lively’s health uncertain, Hansen would get significant playing time early in the season to show if he can do more. They would also bank on Braun turning things around and they can use another guard.

Portland could use Naji for his defense as they seem to be set on rolling out 3 guard offenses. While Zeke gives them someone to play PF. Actually Portland might prefer to get PJ with Zeke landing with the Mavs because I have no clue how they think their 3 guard line up can work without stronger play at PF. They give up on Hansen given that they are also super deep at the 5.

Summarizing the assumptions:
* Denver thinks they can pair Gafford with Jokic for extended minutes + Martin gives them depth
* Mike Schmitz believes in Scoot+Hansen
* Portland needs wing defense and has a glut at guard+center

Now the big question is who should get compensated how?

Nuggets for sure need to pay up with more than one pick. As constructed above Blazers should definitely get compensated unless they do the Zeke-PJ swap, in which case the Mavs clearly should get compensated.

Note more work would be needed in order to make the money work if PJ does land with the Blazers, so a 4th team might be become necessary that needs compensation as the Mavs roster is already quite full.

My goodness how awful would this be. Not only would it be falling to 10 but giving our pick to a finals team. Thank god we got the 1st pick what a sliding doors moment for us.