Heard there was an late-night email blast from the President sent out to the IATSE 873 transportation department mentioning the Ontario Labour Relations Board (OLRB).
Did anyone catch the details or have context on what's going on behind the scenes with transport right now? Looking for insight from anyone in the loop.
I'm probably too late in asking this but with the GEB going on this week in Toronto how could a local member participate or get involved in the activities and discussions the executives are involved in?
I feel like members don't often communicate with international executives unless there's a significant issue in the workplace and I would like to participate in productive discussions.
Anyone near High Park want to watch the Canada game? I'll be going to a bar on Roncy to watch it
​
36m, work-from-home, if you got a better idea or if you want to come hmu
Hey everyone! I mainly work from home, which gives me a fair amount of flexibility, but it also means I spend way too much time looking at the same four walls. I’m throwing a post out here to break up the routine, connect with some new people, and get outside a bit more.
On a typical day, I love starting things off with a morning coffee run, or heading down to the lake for walks, casual runs, and swimming when the weather is nice. I also spend a lot of my free time and energy weight lifting at home, so I'm always down to chat about fitness and training.
If you're also in the area, work a flexible schedule, or just want to hit a trail by the lake sometime, let's connect. I'm definitely looking to plan a real-life meetup sometime soon, so please send me a DM!
I was rewatching the old Martin Shkreli investment lessons and there's an episode (e06?) where he talks about Facebook. Now, this was back in 2014, where he gave Facebook a value of ~$600 B in 2030 at an ARPU of half Netflix's (he used Netflix as a comparison as social media companies weren't as prevalent back then so a close ad business was hard to find.)
I just want to take this moment to say that if you could have predicted what Facebook could have become, 12 years ago, you'd all be millionaires by now. Reddit may be a 20 year old business, but it's still in its infancy as a business.
I'll post a DD closer to earnings, but as of now, I'm seeing RDDT as a ~$200/share business with a PE of 30, and fwd PE of ~15, by the end of the year. There could be more downward pressure but there's a huge upside ahead!
You guys don't like numbers, so I'll keep it short...
Meta's been beaten down, so this'll examine it's earnings to see if it's justified, and give revenue, EPS and price targets to look out for
Expenses and Net income
First, let's look at Meta's revenue. Meta states that they're going to recieved up to $61 B in revenue for Q2, let's see what my model suggests...
| q | rev | exp | interest | tax | NI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| q4 '25 | 59893 | 35148 | 609 | 2586 | 22768 |
| q1 '26 | 56311 | 33439 | -1120 | -5021 | 26773 |
| q2 '26 | 59'743 | 38'710 | 313 | 3'195 | 18'150 |
| q3 '26 | 63'303 | 42'810 | 307 | 3'348 | 17'452 |
| q4 '26 | 67'240 | 47'233 | 313 | 3'538 | 16'781 |
The model suggests $59.7 B for the second quarter and for rest of the year a 12.63% jump... On $60 B that's huge!
Expenses are going to take a hit, I had to bump up the numbers manually to accommodate for the increased CapEx and full year expense forecast on the earnings call.
Revenue check
Looking at their revenue again, in this section I'm going to double check that the initial values of the checksum are accurate by running the model again on their revenue sources as claimed on the balance sheet...
| Q | Ads | Other Rev | Reality Labs | Total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 | 58'137 | 801 | 955 | 59'893 |
| Q1 '26 | 55'024 | 885 | 402 | 56'311 |
| Q2 '26 | 58'337.14 | 985.70 | 531.64 | 59'854.48 |
| Q3 '26 | 61'737.58 | 1108.96 | 737.65 | 63'584.19 |
| Q4 '26 | 65'472.76 | 1248.93 | 1080.91 | 67'802.61 |
The revenue numbers here are within a reasonable margin of error, so onto what you're here for, the EPS and price targets...
| q | shares | eps | ttm x 20 pe | TTM x 25 | ttm x 30 pe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 2'564 | 10.44 | 550.26 | 687.83 | 825.39 |
| Q2 '26 | 2'556.48 | 7.10 | 549.42 | 686.78 | 824.14 |
| Q3 '26 | 2'549.88 | 6.84 | 665.25 | 831.56 | 997.87 |
| Q4 '26 | 2'543.69 | 6.60 | 619.66 | 774.58 | 929.50 |
For the first half, I'm seeing values as low as 550. For the second quarter, I'm seeing values as high 825, if Meta can reclaim a 30 PE. For the later in the year, I'm targeting a price just under $1000 with a PE of 30.
Position: 100 shares @ 611; 5 short puts (Jun 12, 585 @ 8.24) ... I'll be loading up on the way down.
I'll be examining RDDT's 2025 revenues, expenses, EBITDA, and give a 2026 EBITDA estimate with this data. Later in the post, we'll take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then give a share price forecast for 2026.
First, let's see what RDDT had to say about their Q1 growth.
>In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%.
>The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses.
>Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint.
Revenue, expenses and EBITDA
Using previous earnings reports and the data above, I've plugged all this into a table, to give us...
| Q | Rev | Exp | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $392.4 M | $388.5 M | $3.9 M |
| Q2 2025 | $499.6 M | $431.9 M | $67.7 M |
| Q3 2025 | $584.9 M | $446.4 M | $138.5 M |
| Q4 2025 | $725.6 M | $493.8 M | $231.8 M |
| Q1 2026 | $605 M | $385 M | $220 M |
Revenues are increasing quarter-to-quarter by 13%!
Except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference gives us an expense increase average of 0.8% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of 2026, we get an average expense increase of 8.4% per quarter. For this post, we'll assume expenses will increase at this 8.4% rate.
(Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... I'm other words, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.)
2026 Outlook
| Q | rev | exp | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $605 M | $385 M | $220 M |
| Q2 2026 | $683.7 M | $417.3 M | $266.4 M |
| Q3 2026 | $772.5 M | $452.4 M | $320.1 M |
| Q4 2026 | $873.0 M | $490.4 M | $382.6 M |
For the full year, if they keep their 13% quarterly revenue growth, they'll receive $2.93 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 33.4%! I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later, when I examine DAUq and ARPU.
Expenses of $1745.1 M, compared to the total of $1760.6 M in 2025, this is a 0.9% decrease.
As for EBITDA, the full year outlook is $1189.1 M, compared to the $441.9 M in 2025 and an increase of 269.1%.
DAUq and ARPU
RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for "U.S." and "International." So, what are the numbers for 2025...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | US | 50.1 M | $6.27 | Intl | 58.0 M | $1.34 |
| Q2 '25 | US | 50.3 M | $7.87 | Intl | 60.1 M | $1.73 |
| Q3 '25 | US | 51.6 M | $9.04 | Intl | 64.4 M | $1.84 |
| Q4 '25 | US | 52.5 M | $10.79 | Intl | 68.9 M | $2.31 |
In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%.
This gives us revenue of...
| Q | region | rev | region | rev | total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | US | $314.13 M | intl | $77.72 M | $391.33 M |
| Q2 '25 | US | $395.86 M | intl | $103.97 M | $499.83 M |
| Q3 '25 | US | $466.46 M | intl | $118.50 M | $584.96 M |
| Q4 '25 | US | $566.47 M | intl | $159.16 M | $725.63 M |
Calculated revenues are very close to the values posted in earnings reports, indicating that all revenue sources are included in one ARPU value.
Other companies' user growth rates and ARPU
(Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.)
(Note: Snap, while being advertising competition, doesn't see the same user base. I'll update this post with metrics soon, but for now I'm going to go with Meta as a main competitor.)
Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta. Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter.
I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU and DAUq growth rates to half of Meta's, ARPU at 3% and DAUq 0.7%... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I need to keep things in line with expectations.)
2026 DAUq and ARPU
Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have DAUq growth... There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | US | 52.9 M | $11.11 | Intl | 69.4 M | $2.38 |
| Q2 '26 | US | 53.2 M | $11.45 | Intl | 69.9 M | $2.45 |
| Q3 '26 | US | 53.6 M | $11.79 | Intl | 70.4 M | $2.52 |
| Q4 '26 | US | 54.0 M | $12.14 | Intl | 70.9 M | $2.60 |
For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/5 that of Meta's, with revenue equalling...
| Q | region | rev | region | rev | total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | US | $587.72 M | intl | $165.17 M | $752.89 M |
| Q2 '26 | US | $609.14 M | intl | $171.26 M | $780.40 M |
| Q3 '26 | US | $631.94 M | intl | $177.41 M | $809.35 M |
| Q4 '26 | US | $655.56 M | intl | $184.34 M | $839.9 M |
Earlier, I calculated $2.93 B for the full year. This compares to the $3.18 B here. A difference of $250 M. This tells us that RDDT is expected to have significantly slowing revenue.
I'll be using the initial value going forward, as they take into consideration Q1's slowing revenue.
EPS and price targets
For software companies, the precedent is to maintain a steady shared count by issuing buybacks while issuing stock-based compensation. We're going to assume that this trend is maintained.
| Q | other income | tax | shares | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $20.5 M | $(1.7) M | 206.0 M | $0.13 |
| Q2 '25 | $21.2 M | $(0.4) M | 206.6 M | $0.43 |
| Q3 '25 | $22.0 M | $(2.1) M | 206.1 M | $0.79 |
| Q4 '25 | $23.0 M | $3.2 M | 206.1 M | $1.22 |
Average increase in other income is 3.9%, and average increase in taxes is 98.5% but sure to is sporadic nature we'll keep it at the Q4 2025 value.
And for 2026...
| Q | other income | tax | EPS | TTM x 30 PE | x 45 PE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | $23.9 M | $3.2 M | $0.93 | $100.96 | $151.44 |
| Q2 '26 | $24.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.40 | $129.98 | $194.98 |
| Q3 '26 | $25.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.66 | $156.17 | $234.25 |
| Q4 '26 | $26.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.97 | $178.70. | $268.04 |
With a 45 PE, in Q1 we should see a share price of $151.44. With the current 60 PE, a price target of 200 is probable on a strong beat.
That being said, I limited RDDT's DAUq and ARPU growth to half of Meta's, and kept the expense growth rates at 8% (despite the average pointing to it staying flat).
Position: 1600 shares, 20 short puts
I'll be examining RDDT's 2025 revenues, expenses, EBITDA, and give a 2026 EBITDA estimate with this data. Later in the post, we'll take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then give a share price forecast for 2026.
First, let's see what RDDT had to say about their Q1 growth.
>In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%.
>The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses.
>Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint.
Revenue, expenses and EBITDA
Using previous earnings reports and the data above, I've plugged all this into a table, to give us...
| Q | Rev | Exp | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $392.4 M | $388.5 M | $3.9 M |
| Q2 2025 | $499.6 M | $431.9 M | $67.7 M |
| Q3 2025 | $584.9 M | $446.4 M | $138.5 M |
| Q4 2025 | $725.6 M | $493.8 M | $231.8 M |
| Q1 2026 | $605 M | $385 M | $220 M |
Revenues are increasing quarter-to-quarter by 13%!
Except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference gives us an expense increase average of 0.8% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of 2026, we get an average expense increase of 8.4% per quarter. For this post, we'll assume expenses will increase at this 8.4% rate.
(Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... I'm other words, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.)
2026 Outlook
| Q | rev | exp | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $605 M | $385 M | $220 M |
| Q2 2026 | $683.7 M | $417.3 M | $266.4 M |
| Q3 2026 | $772.5 M | $452.4 M | $320.1 M |
| Q4 2026 | $873.0 M | $490.4 M | $382.6 M |
For the full year, if they keep their 13% quarterly revenue growth, they'll receive $2.93 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 33.4%! I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later, when I examine DAUq and ARPU.
Expenses of $1745.1 M, compared to the total of $1760.6 M in 2025, this is a 0.9% decrease.
As for EBITDA, the full year outlook is $1189.1 M, compared to the $441.9 M in 2025 and an increase of 269.1%.
DAUq and ARPU
RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for "U.S." and "International." So, what are the numbers for 2025...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | US | 50.1 M | $6.27 | Intl | 58.0 M | $1.34 |
| Q2 '25 | US | 50.3 M | $7.87 | Intl | 60.1 M | $1.73 |
| Q3 '25 | US | 51.6 M | $9.04 | Intl | 64.4 M | $1.84 |
| Q4 '25 | US | 52.5 M | $10.79 | Intl | 68.9 M | $2.31 |
In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%.
This gives us revenue of...
| Q | region | rev | region | rev | total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | US | $314.13 M | intl | $77.72 M | $391.33 M |
| Q2 '25 | US | $395.86 M | intl | $103.97 M | $499.83 M |
| Q3 '25 | US | $466.46 M | intl | $118.50 M | $584.96 M |
| Q4 '25 | US | $566.47 M | intl | $159.16 M | $725.63 M |
Calculated revenues are very close to the values posted in earnings reports, indicating that all revenue sources are included in one ARPU value.
Other companies' user growth rates and ARPU
(Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.)
Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta. Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter.
I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU and DAUq growth rates to half of Meta's, ARPU at 3% and DAUq 0.7%... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I need to keep things in line with expectations.)
2026 DAUq and ARPU
Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have DAUq growth... There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | US | 52.9 M | $11.11 | Intl | 69.4 M | $2.38 |
| Q2 '26 | US | 53.2 M | $11.45 | Intl | 69.9 M | $2.45 |
| Q3 '26 | US | 53.6 M | $11.79 | Intl | 70.4 M | $2.52 |
| Q4 '26 | US | 54.0 M | $12.14 | Intl | 70.9 M | $2.60 |
For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/5 that of Meta's, with revenue equalling...
| Q | region | rev | region | rev | total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | US | $587.72 M | intl | $165.17 M | $752.89 M |
| Q2 '26 | US | $609.14 M | intl | $171.26 M | $780.40 M |
| Q3 '26 | US | $631.94 M | intl | $177.41 M | $809.35 M |
| Q4 '26 | US | $655.56 M | intl | $184.34 M | $839.9 M |
Earlier, I calculated $2.93 B for the full year. This compares to the $3.18 B here. A difference of $250 M. This tells us that RDDT is expected to have significantly slowing revenue.
I'll be using the initial value going forward, as they take into consideration Q1's slowing revenue.
EPS and price targets
For software companies, the precedent is to maintain a steady shared count by issuing buybacks while issuing stock-based compensation. We're going to assume that this trend is maintained.
| Q | other income | tax | shares | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $20.5 M | $(1.7) M | 206.0 M | $0.13 |
| Q2 '25 | $21.2 M | $(0.4) M | 206.6 M | $0.43 |
| Q3 '25 | $22.0 M | $(2.1) M | 206.1 M | $0.79 |
| Q4 '25 | $23.0 M | $3.2 M | 206.1 M | $1.22 |
Average increase in other income is 3.9%, and average increase in taxes is 98.5% but sure to is sporadic nature we'll keep it at the Q4 2025 value.
And for 2026...
| Q | other income | tax | EPS | TTM x 30 PE | x 45 PE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | $23.9 M | $3.2 M | $0.93 | $100.96 | $151.44 |
| Q2 '26 | $24.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.40 | $129.98 | $194.98 |
| Q3 '26 | $25.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.66 | $156.17 | $234.25 |
| Q4 '26 | $26.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.97 | $178.70. | $268.04 |
With a 45 PE, in Q1 we should see a share price of $151.44. With the current 60 PE, a price target of 200 is probable on a strong beat.
That being said, I limited RDDT's DAUq and ARPU growth to half of Meta's, and kept the expense growth rates at 8% (despite the average pointing to it staying flat).
Disclaimer: 1600 RDDT shares
I'll be examining RDDT's 2025 revenues, expenses, EBITDA, and give a 2026 EBITDA estimate with this data. Later in the post, we'll take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then give a share price forecast for 2026.
First, let's see what RDDT had to say about their Q1 growth.
>In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%.
>The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses.
>Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint.
Revenue, expenses and EBITDA
Using previous earnings reports and the data above, I've plugged all this into a table, to give us...
| Q | Rev | Exp | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $392.4 M | $388.5 M | $3.9 M |
| Q2 2025 | $499.6 M | $431.9 M | $67.7 M |
| Q3 2025 | $584.9 M | $446.4 M | $138.5 M |
| Q4 2025 | $725.6 M | $493.8 M | $231.8 M |
| Q1 2026 | $605 M | $385 M | $220 M |
Revenues are increasing quarter-to-quarter by 13%!
Except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference gives us an expense increase average of 0.8% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of 2026, we get an average expense increase of 8.4% per quarter. For this post, we'll assume expenses will increase at this 8.4% rate.
(Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... I'm other words, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.)
2026 Outlook
| Q | rev | exp | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $605 M | $385 M | $220 M |
| Q2 2026 | $683.7 M | $417.3 M | $266.4 M |
| Q3 2026 | $772.5 M | $452.4 M | $320.1 M |
| Q4 2026 | $873.0 M | $490.4 M | $382.6 M |
For the full year, if they keep their 13% quarterly revenue growth, they'll receive $2.93 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 33.4%! I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later, when I examine DAUq and ARPU.
Expenses of $1745.1 M, compared to the total of $1760.6 M in 2025, this is a 0.9% decrease.
As for EBITDA, the full year outlook is $1189.1 M, compared to the $441.9 M in 2025 and an increase of 269.1%.
DAUq and ARPU
RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for "U.S." and "International." So, what are the numbers for 2025...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | US | 50.1 M | $6.27 | Intl | 58.0 M | $1.34 |
| Q2 '25 | US | 50.3 M | $7.87 | Intl | 60.1 M | $1.73 |
| Q3 '25 | US | 51.6 M | $9.04 | Intl | 64.4 M | $1.84 |
| Q4 '25 | US | 52.5 M | $10.79 | Intl | 68.9 M | $2.31 |
In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%.
This gives us revenue of...
| Q | region | rev | region | rev | total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | US | $314.13 M | intl | $77.72 M | $391.33 M |
| Q2 '25 | US | $395.86 M | intl | $103.97 M | $499.83 M |
| Q3 '25 | US | $466.46 M | intl | $118.50 M | $584.96 M |
| Q4 '25 | US | $566.47 M | intl | $159.16 M | $725.63 M |
Calculated revenues are very close to the values posted in earnings reports, indicating that all revenue sources are included in one ARPU value.
Other companies' user growth rates and ARPU
(Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.)
Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta. Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter.
I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU and DAUq growth rates to half of Meta's, ARPU at 3% and DAUq 0.7%... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I need to keep things in line with expectations.)
2026 DAUq and ARPU
Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have DAUq growth... There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | US | 52.9 M | $11.11 | Intl | 69.4 M | $2.38 |
| Q2 '26 | US | 53.2 M | $11.45 | Intl | 69.9 M | $2.45 |
| Q3 '26 | US | 53.6 M | $11.79 | Intl | 70.4 M | $2.52 |
| Q4 '26 | US | 54.0 M | $12.14 | Intl | 70.9 M | $2.60 |
For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/5 that of Meta's, with revenue equalling...
| Q | region | rev | region | rev | total Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | US | $587.72 M | intl | $165.17 M | $752.89 M |
| Q2 '26 | US | $609.14 M | intl | $171.26 M | $780.40 M |
| Q3 '26 | US | $631.94 M | intl | $177.41 M | $809.35 M |
| Q4 '26 | US | $655.56 M | intl | $184.34 M | $839.9 M |
Earlier, I calculated $2.93 B for the full year. This compares to the $3.18 B here. A difference of $250 M. This tells us that RDDT is expected to have significantly slowing revenue.
I'll be using the initial value going forward, as they take into consideration Q1's slowing revenue.
EPS and price targets
For software companies, the precedent is to maintain a steady shared count by issuing buybacks while issuing stock-based compensation. We're going to assume that this trend is maintained.
| Q | other income | tax | shares | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $20.5 M | $(1.7) M | 206.0 M | $0.13 |
| Q2 '25 | $21.2 M | $(0.4) M | 206.6 M | $0.43 |
| Q3 '25 | $22.0 M | $(2.1) M | 206.1 M | $0.79 |
| Q4 '25 | $23.0 M | $3.2 M | 206.1 M | $1.22 |
Average increase in other income is 3.9%, and average increase in taxes is 98.5% but sure to is sporadic nature we'll keep it at the Q4 2025 value.
And for 2026...
| Q | other income | tax | EPS | TTM x 30 PE | x 45 PE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | $23.9 M | $3.2 M | $0.93 | $100.96 | $151.44 |
| Q2 '26 | $24.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.40 | $129.98 | $194.98 |
| Q3 '26 | $25.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.66 | $156.17 | $234.25 |
| Q4 '26 | $26.8 M | $3.2 M | $1.97 | $178.70. | $268.04 |
With a 45 PE, in Q1 we should see a share price of $151.44. With the current 60 PE, a price target of 200 is probable on a strong beat.
That being said, I limited RDDT's DAUq and ARPU growth to half of Meta's, and kept the expense growth rates at 8% (despite the average pointing to it staying flat).
Disclaimer: 1600 RDDT shares
Unless mods delete it again... This post will examine PLTR's historical averages, operating income, and give a forecast for 2026 EPS and price targets.
First, let's see what PLTR has to say. We'll come back to this later on...
>For Q1 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $1.532 - $1.536 billion. • Adjusted income from operations of between $870 - $874 million.
>For full year 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion. • U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $3.144 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 115%. • Adjusted income from operations of between $4.126 - $4.142 billion. • Adjusted free cash flow of between $3.925 - $4.125 billion. • GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.
Historical values
PLTR does not disclose revenue sources in their financial statements, only providing a single revenue number. That being said, these are the numbers...
| Q | Rev | COR | OpEx | COR + OpEx | OpInc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 634.3 | 111.3 | 437.2 | 548.5 | 85.8 |
| Q2 '24 | 678.1 | 128.6 | 444.2 | 572.8 | 105.3 |
| Q3 '24 | 725.5 | 146.6 | 465.7 | 612.3 | 113.2 |
| Q4 '24 | 827.5 | 174.5 | 641.9 | 816.4 | 11.1 |
| Q1 '25 | 883.9 | 173.0 | 534.8 | 707.8 | 176.1 |
| Q2 '25 | 1003.7 | 192.9 | 541.5 | 734.4 | 269.3 |
| Q3 '25 | 1181.1 | 207.3 | 580.5 | 787.8 | 393.3 |
| Q4 '25 | 1406.8 | 216.0 | 615.4 | 831.4 | 575.4 |
In the past two years, per quarter, revenue has increased by 12.16%; cost of revenue has increased by 10.16%; operating expenses increased by 6.01%; in total, operating expenses and cost of revenue together, they increase by 7.25% per quarter if you remove the Q4 '24 outlier. Again, if we remove the outlier, Operating Income increases by 22.87% on average per quarter.
Operating income
Next, I'm going to calculate Q1 values then compare them to the forward guidance.
| Q | Rev | COR + OpEx | OpInc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 890.3 | 687.6 |
Comparing these values to Palantir's first quarter guidance, the expected revenue we calculated is slightly higher than the forecasted revenue, by 2.7%. The operating income is calculated at $687.6 M, which is significantly lower than PLTR's forecast. (CoR + Operating Expenses = Revenue - Operating Income.) This tells us that PLTR is expecting Cost of Revenue and/or Operating Expenses to drop by ~$186.4 M. For this reason, we're going to use their forecasted COR+OpEx value, over our calculated value. We will still use our calculated revenue, as well as our calculated average value increases.
| Q | Rev | COR+ OpEx | OpInc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 703.9 | 874 |
| Q2 '26 | 1769.8 | 754.9 | 1014.9 |
| Q3 '26 | 1985.0 | 809.7 | 1175.3 |
| Q4 '26 | 2226.4 | 868.4 | 1358.0 |
Total calculated revenue of $7559.1 M, compared to $7198 M forecasted, a 5.0% difference. Total operating income for 2026 is calculated to be $4422.2 M, to Palantir's $4142 M, a difference of 6.8%. While optimistic, these values are within reason for the purposes of this experiment and I'll be using them in addition to the historical averages to calculate net income.
Net income and EPS
Historical values first...
| Q | interest & other income | tax | NI | shares | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 29.9 | 4.7 | 111.0 | 2400.1 | 0.0463 |
| Q2 '24 | 35.4 | 5.2 | 135.5 | 2414.7 | 0.0561 |
| Q3 '24 | 44.0 | 7.8 | 149.4 | 2459.6 | 0.0607 |
| Q4 '24 | 69.5 | 3.6 | 77.0 | 2528.3 | 0.0305 |
| Q1 '25 | 47.3 | 5.6 | 217.8 | 2552.8 | 0.0853 |
| Q2 '25 | 62.9 | 3.6 | 328.6 | 2562.9 | 0.1282 |
| Q3 '25 | 87.3 | 3.8 | 476.8 | 2571.1 | 0.1855 |
| Q4 '25 | 46.0 | 9.8 | 611.6 | 2573.5 | 0.2377 |
Interest and other income has an average of $52.8 M, and increases by 13.31%; and tax has an average of $5.51 M, and increased by 27.16%. The diluted shares outstanding have on average increased by 0.6% to give us a Q1 2026 expected shares count of 2599.4. Plugging these values into 2026 gives us...
| Q | other income | tax | NI | share count | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 70.3 | 7.0 | 937.3 | 2588.9 | 0.3621 |
| Q2 '26 | 79.6 | 8.9 | 1085.6 | 2604.5 | 0.4168 |
| Q3 '26 | 90.2 | 11.3 | 1254.2 | 2620.1 | 0.4787 |
| Q4 '26 | 102.2 | 14.4 | 1445.8 | 2635.8 | 0.5485 |
The Q1 2026 EPS will be $0.3565, or an increase of 50.0% from Q4 2025.
Finally, our price targets would be...
| Q | TTM x 30 PE | TTM x 100 PE | TTM x 150 PE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 27.41 | 91.35 | 137.03 |
| Q2 '26 | 36.06 | 120.21 | 180.32 |
| Q3 '26 | 44.86 | 149.53 | 224.30 |
| Q4 '26 | 54.18 | 180.61 | 270.92 |
Conclusion
Palantir is currently trading at a PE of ~225, if we give it a PE of 150 by the end of the year it could reach a new all time high of $270.92. However, if the PE comes back to reality, it could be as low as $54.18.
That is, of course, if the trend continues. Palantir trades at high multiples due to it's ability to win large, multi-year security contracts for governments and large businesses. If they win new contracts, my targets could get blown out of the water...
Disclaimer: -5 x 18 Jun '26 125 Put, using these puts to buy more RDDT
This post will examine PLTR's historical averages, operating income, and give a forecast for 2026 EPS and price targets.
First, let's see what PLTR has to say. We'll come back to this later on...
>For Q1 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $1.532 - $1.536 billion. • Adjusted income from operations of between $870 - $874 million.
>For full year 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion. • U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $3.144 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 115%. • Adjusted income from operations of between $4.126 - $4.142 billion. • Adjusted free cash flow of between $3.925 - $4.125 billion. • GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.
Historical values
PLTR does not disclose revenue sources in their financial statements, only providing a single revenue number. That being said, these are the numbers...
| Q | Rev | COR | OpEx | CoR + OpEx | Op Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 634.3 | 111.3 | 437.2 | 548.5 | 85.8 |
| Q2 '24 | 678.1 | 128.6 | 444.2 | 572.8 | 105.3 |
| Q3 '24 | 725.5 | 146.6 | 465.7 | 612.3 | 113.2 |
| Q4 '24 | 827.5 | 174.5 | 641.9 | 816.4 | 11.1 |
| Q1 '25 | 883.9 | 173.0 | 534.8 | 707.8 | 176.1 |
| Q2 '25 | 1003.7 | 192.9 | 541.5 | 734.4 | 269.3 |
| Q3 '25 | 1181.1 | 207.3 | 580.5 | 787.8 | 393.3 |
| Q4 '25 | 1406.8 | 216.0 | 615.4 | 831.4 | 575.4 |
In the past two years, per quarter, revenue has increased by 12.16%; cost of revenue has increased by 10.16%; operating expenses increased by 6.01%; in total, operating expenses and cost of revenue together, they increase by 7.25% per quarter if you remove the Q4 '24 outlier. Again, if we remove the outlier, Operating Income increases by 22.87% on average per quarter.
Operating income
Next, I'm going to calculate Q1 values then compare them to the forward guidance.
| Q | Rev | COR + OpEx | operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 890.3 | 687.6 |
Comparing these values to Palantir's first quarter guidance, the expected revenue we calculated is slightly higher than the forecasted revenue, by 2.7%. The operating income is calculated at $687.6 M, which is significantly lower than PLTR's forecast. (CoR + Operating Expenses = Revenue - Operating Income.) This tells us that PLTR is expecting Cost of Revenue and/or Operating Expenses to drop by ~$186.4 M. For this reason, we're going to use their forecasted COR+OpEx value, over our calculated value. We will still use our calculated revenue, as well as our calculated average value increases.
| Q | Rev | COR + OpEx | operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 703.9 | 874 |
| Q2 '26 | 1769.8 | 754.9 | 1014.9 |
| Q3 '26 | 1985.0 | 809.7 | 1175.3 |
| Q4 '26 | 2226.4 | 868.4 | 1358.0 |
Total calculated revenue of $7559.1 M, compared to $7198 M forecasted, a 5.0% difference. Total operating income for 2026 is calculated to be $4422.2 M, to Palantir's $4142 M, a difference of 6.8%. While optimistic, these values are within reason for the purposes of this experiment and I'll be using them in addition to the historical averages to calculate net income.
Net income and EPS
Historical values first...
| Q | interest & other income | tax | net income | diluted shares | standardized EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 29.9 | 4.7 | 111.0 | 2400.1 | 0.0463 |
| Q2 '24 | 35.4 | 5.2 | 135.5 | 2414.7 | 0.0561 |
| Q3 '24 | 44.0 | 7.8 | 149.4 | 2459.6 | 0.0607 |
| Q4 '24 | 69.5 | 3.6 | 77.0 | 2528.3 | 0.0305 |
| Q1 '25 | 47.3 | 5.6 | 217.8 | 2552.8 | 0.0853 |
| Q2 '25 | 62.9 | 3.6 | 328.6 | 2562.9 | 0.1282 |
| Q3 '25 | 87.3 | 3.8 | 476.8 | 2571.1 | 0.1855 |
| Q4 '25 | 46.0 | 9.8 | 611.6 | 2573.5 | 0.2377 |
Interest and other income has an average of $52.8 M, and increases by 13.31%; and tax has an average of $5.51 M, and increased by 27.16%. The diluted shares outstanding have on average increased by 0.6% to give us a Q1 2026 expected shares count of 2599.4. Plugging these values into 2026 gives us...
| Q | other income | tax | net income | share count | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 70.3 | 7.0 | 937.3 | 2588.9 | 0.3621 |
| Q2 '26 | 79.6 | 8.9 | 1085.6 | 2604.5 | 0.4168 |
| Q3 '26 | 90.2 | 11.3 | 1254.2 | 2620.1 | 0.4787 |
| Q4 '26 | 102.2 | 14.4 | 1445.8 | 2635.8 | 0.5485 |
The Q1 2026 EPS will be $0.3565, or an increase of 50.0% from Q4 2025.
Finally, our price targets would be...
| Q | TTM x 30 PE | TTM x 100 PE | TTM x 150 PE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 27.41 | 91.35 | 137.03 |
| Q2 '26 | 36.06 | 120.21 | 180.32 |
| Q3 '26 | 44.86 | 149.53 | 224.30 |
| Q4 '26 | 54.18 | 180.61 | 270.92 |
Conclusion
Palantir is currently trading at a PE of ~225, if we give it a PE of 150 by the end of the year it could reach a new all time high of $270.92. However, if the PE comes back to reality, it could be as low as $54.18.
That is, of course, if the trend continues. Palantir trades at high multiples due to it's ability to win large, multi-year security contracts for governments and large businesses. If they win new contracts, my targets could get blown out of the water...
Position: 51 DTE short puts @ $125
This post will examine PLTR's historical averages, operating income, and give a forecast for 2026 EPS and price targets.
First, let's see what PLTR has to say. We'll come back to this later on...
>For Q1 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $1.532 - $1.536 billion. • Adjusted income from operations of between $870 - $874 million.
>For full year 2026, we expect: • Revenue of between $7.182 - $7.198 billion. • U.S. commercial revenue in excess of $3.144 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 115%. • Adjusted income from operations of between $4.126 - $4.142 billion. • Adjusted free cash flow of between $3.925 - $4.125 billion. • GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.
Historical values
PLTR does not disclose revenue sources in their financial statements, only providing a single revenue number. That being said, these are the numbers...
| Q | Rev | cost of rev | op expenses | CoR + OpEx | Op Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 634.3 | 111.3 | 437.2 | 548.5 | 85.8 |
| Q2 '24 | 678.1 | 128.6 | 444.2 | 572.8 | 105.3 |
| Q3 '24 | 725.5 | 146.6 | 465.7 | 612.3 | 113.2 |
| Q4 '24 | 827.5 | 174.5 | 641.9 | 816.4 | 11.1 |
| Q1 '25 | 883.9 | 173.0 | 534.8 | 707.8 | 176.1 |
| Q2 '25 | 1003.7 | 192.9 | 541.5 | 734.4 | 269.3 |
| Q3 '25 | 1181.1 | 207.3 | 580.5 | 787.8 | 393.3 |
| Q4 '25 | 1406.8 | 216.0 | 615.4 | 831.4 | 575.4 |
In the past two years, per quarter, revenue has increased by 12.16%; cost of revenue has increased by 10.16%; operating expenses increased by 6.01%; in total, operating expenses and cost of revenue together, they increase by 7.25% per quarter if you remove the Q4 '24 outlier. Again, if we remove the outlier, Operating Income increases by 22.87% on average per quarter.
Operating income
Next, I'm going to calculate Q1 values then compare them to the forward guidance.
| Q | Revenue | COR + OpEx | operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 890.3 | 687.6 |
Comparing these values to Palantir's first quarter guidance, the expected revenue we calculated is slightly higher than the forecasted revenue, by 2.7%. The operating income is calculated at $687.6 M, which is significantly lower than PLTR's forecast. (CoR + Operating Expenses = Revenue - Operating Income.) This tells us that PLTR is expecting Cost of Revenue and/or Operating Expenses to drop by ~$186.4 M. For this reason, we're going to use their forecasted COR+OpEx value, over our calculated value. We will still use our calculated revenue, as well as our calculated average value increases.
| Q | Revenue | operating expenses + COR | operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1577.9 | 703.9 | 874 |
| Q2 '26 | 1769.8 | 754.9 | 1014.9 |
| Q3 '26 | 1985.0 | 809.7 | 1175.3 |
| Q4 '26 | 2226.4 | 868.4 | 1358.0 |
Total calculated revenue of $7559.1 M, compared to $7198 M forecasted, a 5.0% difference. Total operating income for 2026 is calculated to be $4422.2 M, to Palantir's $4142 M, a difference of 6.8%. While optimistic, these values are within reason for the purposes of this experiment and I'll be using them in addition to the historical averages to calculate net income.
Net income and EPS
Historical values first...
| Q | interest & other income | tax | net income | diluted shares | standardized EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | 29.9 | 4.7 | 111.0 | 2400.1 | 0.0463 |
| Q2 '24 | 35.4 | 5.2 | 135.5 | 2414.7 | 0.0561 |
| Q3 '24 | 44.0 | 7.8 | 149.4 | 2459.6 | 0.0607 |
| Q4 '24 | 69.5 | 3.6 | 77.0 | 2528.3 | 0.0305 |
| Q1 '25 | 47.3 | 5.6 | 217.8 | 2552.8 | 0.0853 |
| Q2 '25 | 62.9 | 3.6 | 328.6 | 2562.9 | 0.1282 |
| Q3 '25 | 87.3 | 3.8 | 476.8 | 2571.1 | 0.1855 |
| Q4 '25 | 46.0 | 9.8 | 611.6 | 2573.5 | 0.2377 |
Interest and other income has an average of $52.8 M, and increases by 13.31%; and tax has an average of $5.51 M, and increased by 27.16%. The diluted shares outstanding have on average increased by 0.6% to give us a Q1 2026 expected shares count of 2599.4. Plugging these values into 2026 gives us...
| Q | other income | tax | net income | share count | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 70.3 | 7.0 | 937.3 | 2588.9 | 0.3621 |
| Q2 '26 | 79.6 | 8.9 | 1085.6 | 2604.5 | 0.4168 |
| Q3 '26 | 90.2 | 11.3 | 1254.2 | 2620.1 | 0.4787 |
| Q4 '26 | 102.2 | 14.4 | 1445.8 | 2635.8 | 0.5485 |
The Q1 2026 EPS will be $0.3565, or an increase of 50.0% from Q4 2025.
Finally, our price targets would be...
| Q | TTM x 30 PE | TTM x 100 PE | TTM x 150 PE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 27.41 | 91.35 | 137.03 |
| Q2 '26 | 36.06 | 120.21 | 180.32 |
| Q3 '26 | 44.86 | 149.53 | 224.30 |
| Q4 '26 | 54.18 | 180.61 | 270.92 |
Conclusion
Palantir is currently trading at a PE of ~225, if we give it a PE of 150 by the end of the year it could reach a new all time high of $270.92. However, if the PE comes back to reality, it could be as low as $54.18.
That is, of course, if the trend continues. Palantir trades at high multiples due to it's ability to win large, multi-year security contracts for governments and large businesses. If they win new contracts, my targets could get blown out of the water...
Disclaimer: 51 DTE short puts
This post will examine NFLX's revenues, expenses, earnings, and give a 2026 estimate with this data.
Revenues and expenses
For 2026, let's see what NFLX has to say.
>We continue to project 2026 revenue of $50.7-$51.7B and an operating margin of 31.5%.
Let's get to their numbers to find out what that means...
| Q | rev | exp | NI | shares | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | 10'543 | 7'653 | 2'890 | 4'370 | 0.661 |
| Q2 '25 | 11'079 | 7'954 | 3'125 | 4'349 | 0.719 |
| Q3 '25 | 11'510 | 8'963 | 2'547 | 4'340 | 0.587 |
| Q4 '25 | 12'051 | 9'632 | 2'419 | 4'317 | 0.560 |
| Q1 '26 | 12'250 | 6'967 | 5'283 | 4'298 | 1.229 |
| Q2 '26 | 12'574 | 9'247 | 3'327 | 4208 | 0.791 |
The average increase in revenue per quarter is 3.45%; the increase in expenses is 5.83%; shares decrease by 0.41%.
That gives us a forecast of...
| Q | rev | exp | NI | shares | eps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 '26 | 13'008 | 9'786 | 3'222 | 4118 | 0.782 |
| Q4 26 | 13'457 | 10'357 | 3'100 | 4028 | 0.770 |
(Note, for the share report repurchase program, I'm using the currently traded price of ~$92.50. This equals 270 M shares repurchased from Q2 onwards. )
For the second half of the 2026 expenses are steadily increasing, while revenue is flattening. As a result, EPS is decreasing significantly throughout the year given the $25 B share repurchase program announced last week.
If we add up the revenues, we get $51'289, or right in the middle of Netflix's own forecast. Now let's go more in depth on the expenses to see where the extra costs are coming from.
Expenses and tax breakdown
| Q | COR | sales | tech | admin | interest | tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | 5263 | 688 | 823 | 425 | 133 | (323) |
| Q2 '25 | 5325 | 713 | 825 | 441 | 143 | (506) |
| Q3 '25 | 6'164 | 786 | 854 | 458 | 139 | (563) |
| Q4 '25 | 6'523 | 1'113 | 890 | 568 | 188 | (349) |
| Q1 '26 | 5'888 | 842 | 960 | 603 | (2590) | (1264) |
Cost of revenue is increasing by 3.26% on average; sales expenses are increasing by 7.78%; technology expenses are increasing by 3.96%; administration costs are increasing by 9.45%; except for Q1 2026, interest expense on revenue is increasing by 13.32%; and, omitting the Q1 outlier, tax rebates are increasing by 9.97%.
There's a huge tax rebate and interest payment in Q1 2026 that largely decreased expenses away from the norm. They also have much lower cost of revenue compared to the trend. These are not expected to continue in Q2 2026, as we can see in Netflix's own projection of $9247 in expenses in the first table.
The 2026 expectations are...
| Q | COR | sales | tech | admin | interest | tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 6736 | 908 | 998 | 660 | 213 | (384) |
| Q3 '26 | 6956 | 978 | 1037 | 722 | 241 | (422) |
| Q4 '26 | 7182 | 1054 | 1079 | 791 | 274 | (464) |
As shown above, for Q2 taxes and expenses add up to $9131, which is very close to Netflix's pre-tax estimate in the first chart. Q3 sees expenses of $9512, which is also slightly lower. Lastly, Q4 has expenses of $9916 after taxes.
If we do a shares price calculation, with a 30 PE multiple for the trailing 12 months, we get...
| Q | EPS | TTM x 30 PE |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 0.818 | $95.82 |
| Q3 '26 | 0.849 | $103.68 |
| Q4 '26 | 0.879 | $113.25 |
Share prices will hit a high of, and end the year at, the $113.25 mark. Largely influenced by the share buyback program.
Overall, expenses are steadily rising, largely in the Cost of Revenue segment. If tax rebates continue or there are new interest revenues, as seen in Q1 2026, NFLX could see significant EPS beats.
Disclaimer: 45-21 DTE short puts
I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030?
This post will examine RDDT's revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, EBITDA, and give a 2026 EBITDA estimate with this data. We will then take a deeper dive into current user growth, ARPU growth, and compare this to the initial 2026 estimates and to other companies growth so we can then give a share price forecast for 2026. Finally, we will build a simple profile for 2027-2030 and give a base case market cap forecast.
Revenue growth
For 2026, let's see what RDDT had to say about their own growth.
>In the first quarter of 2026, we estimate revenue in the range of $595 million to $605 million, representing 52% to 54% year-over-year revenue growth, with a midpoint of about 53%.
Let's do some math to see how much their revenues could increase per quarter if things average the same. Below are the 2025 values...
| Q | revenue | difference |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $500 M | 78% beat on Q2 '24 |
| Q3 2025 | $585 M | 68% beat on Q3 '24 |
| Q4 2025 | $726 M | 70% beat on Q4 '24 |
| Q1 2026 | $600 M | 53% beat on Q1 '25 |
As we can see, revenues are increasing quarter to quarter, with the slowest quarter being every first quarter, and the average increase being 20.1%. Extrapolate this to 2026 and we get...
| Q | revenue |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $721 M |
| Q3 2026 | $865 M |
| Q4 2026 | $1039 M |
For the full year, if they keep their 20% revenue growth rate per quarter, they'll recieve $3.26 B compared to their $2.2 B in 2025, or an increase of 47%! This is a huge difference, but in line with their past beats, and I'll go into more detail about why revenue has room to run later in the article when I examine user and ARPU growth.
Expenses next
>The Q1 guide implies a total adjusted cost base of $385 million which would be down sequentially to Q4 expenses.
| Q | total expenses | difference |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $366 M | - |
| Q2 2025 | $411 M | 41% up on Q2 '24 |
| Q3 2025 | $422 M | 19% up on Q3 '24 |
| Q4 2025 | $474 M | 33% up on Q4 '24 |
| Q1 2026 | $385 M | 5% up on Q1 '25 |
As we can see, except for the forecasted expenses in Q1 '26, expenses are slowly increasing. Averaging the difference of these numbers gives us an expense increase average of 0.5% per quarter. If we remove the outlier, the first quarter of '26's 23% decrease, we get an average expense increase of 8% per quarter. There we go, we got something to work with! Let's extrapolate this 8% increase in expenses to the full year of 2026 from Q1.
| Q | expenses |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $416 M |
| Q3 2026 | $449 M |
| Q4 2026 | $485 M |
This gives us full year expenses of $1735 M. Compared to the $1760 M in 2025, this is a 1.5% decrease or roughly flat...
Next is the EBITDA
(Note: RDDT doesn't pay taxes, they have received rebates every year since becoming public so I'll be omitting taxes from this article for the sake of my sanity.)
>Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $210 million to $220 million, representing approximately 82% to 91% year-over-year growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% at the midpoint.
Taking the numbers we have above and plugging them in gives us a forecast of ...
| Q | EBITDA |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $215 M |
| Q2 2026 | $305 M |
| Q3 2026 | $416 M |
| Q4 2026 | $554 M |
This gives us a full year outlook of $1490 M, compared to the $845 M in 2025 and an increase of 76%! That's with a higher than expected expense rate.
So, now we got the numbers for 2026. For full year 2026, we estimate 47% revenue growth, expense growth of 8%, and EBITDA growth of 76% if things stay consistent.
(Note: "Other revenues" aren't on the financial statements, only a note in the "key highlights." However, Reddit adds "other revenues" to the ARPU. You can see this by multiplying the total DAUq by the ARPU values, you get the exact revenue for the year... TLDR, ARPU encompasses AI training data and other revenues.)
Current user growth rates and revenue per user
We'll start by giving an estimate for 2026. RDDT says "Daily Active Uniques (“DAUq”) increased 19% year-over-year to 121.4 million" globally. RDDT itself only gives metrics for U.S. and "international." So, what are the numbers for 2025...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | US | 50.1 M | 6.27 | Int | 58.0 M | 1.34 |
| Q2 | US | 50.3 M | 7.87 | Int | 60.1 M | 1.73 |
| Q3 | US | 51.6 M | 9.04 | Int | 64.4 M | 1.84 |
| Q4 | US | 52.5 M | 10.79 | Int | 68.9 M | 2.31 |
In 2025 the DAUq for US steadily increased by 1.57% per quarter, and US ARPU increased by 19.9% per quarter. For international DAUq there was an increase of 5.0%, and an ARPU increase of 20.3%. This makes sense. But let's cap the ARPU at a value that matches Meta's. 20% might not be sustainable.
Other companies user growth rates and ARPU
(Note: I omitted TikTok from the data set b.c I don't feel like TikTok is a direct competitor to Reddit. TikTok is very short form video, there's little opportunity to talk or be social on it, and the ads are not interactive. As of 2025, they had a total customer base of 23 B, on revenue of $1.68 B, or an ARPU of $13.7... which is still higher than Reddit's current ARPU value... That's not including the Chinese version of TikTok, only international.)
Facebook and Instagram user stats are grouped together by Meta. Their DAU was 3.58 B at the end of 2025, with a growth rate of 1.4% per quarter since the beginning of 2024. Their ARPU is significantly larger at $16.96 at the end of 2025, and their ARPU growth rate is 6.2% per quarter.
I'm going to cap RDDT's ARPU growth rate at 3%, or roughly inflation and half of Meta's, and maintain the DAUq growth rate at its current level... (Honestly, I'm doing this because I ran the numbers with higher ARPU growth rates and it blows RDDT off the charts for net income. I want them to get there, I just need to keep things conservative.)
Future DAUq and ARPU
Okay, RDDT's ARPU has room to run and they have decent DAUq growth... So now we need to get back to the numbers. There's no guidance on DAUq or ARPU for 2026 so we need to create our own from the our data above...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | US | 53.3 M | 11.11 | Int | 72.4 M | 2.38 |
| Q2 | US | 54.2 M | 11.45 | Int | 76.0 M | 2.45 |
| Q3 | US | 55.0 M | 11.79 | Int | 79.8 M | 2.52 |
| Q4 | US | 55.9 M | 12.14 | Int | 83.8 M | 2.60 |
For 2026, RDDT will have a worldwide daily active community 1/4 that of Meta's and $3317 M in revenue. Subtract the expenses of $1735 M, from above, and we get a net income of $1582 M. This is close to our EBITDA expectations of $1490 M which were based on forward guidance.
Shares outstanding and EPS
| Q | Shares outstanding | EPS |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | 206.0 | 0.126 |
| Q2 '25 | 206.6 | 0.431 |
| Q3 '25 | 206.1 | 0.791 |
| Q4 '25 | 206.1 | 1.223 |
For the purpose of creating an EPS and share price targets, I'm going to use the historical share price number as of Q4 2025. As for EPS and share price...
| Q | EPS | TTM x 30 PE |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | 1.043 | 104.64 |
| Q2 '26 | 1.480 | 136.11 |
| Q3 '26 | 2.018 | 172.92 |
| Q4 '26 | 2.688 | 216.87 |
With a 30 PE, in Q1 we should see a share price of $104.64; in Q2 a shares price of $136.11; in Q3 $172.92; and Q4 $216.87. This doesn't include taxes, of which they keep getting refunds...
2027-2030
For 2027-2030 we're going to keep things consistent for this thought experiment. A 1.57% US DAUq growth, a 5% international DAUq growth, ARPU growth of 3%, and expenses growth at 8%.
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | US | 56.8 M | 12.50 | Int | 88.0 M | 2.68 |
| Q2 | US | 57.7 M | 12.89 | Int | 92.4 M | 2.76 |
| Q3 | US | 58.6 M | 13.27 | Int | 97.0 M | 2.84 |
| Q4 | US | 59.5 M | 13.66 | Int | 101.9 M | 2.93 |
This gives us an ad revenue of $4109 M, and net income of $2235 M.
2028
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | US | 60.4 M | 14.07 | Int | 107.0 M | 3.02 |
| Q2 | US | 61.4 M | 14.49 | Int | 112.4 M | 3.11 |
| Q3 | US | 62.3 M | 14.93 | Int | 118.0 M | 3.20 |
| Q4 | US | 63.3 M | 15.37 | Int | 123.8 M | 3.30 |
Again, this gives us a revenue of $5101 M, and net income of $3078 M.
2029
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | US | 64.3 M | 15.83 | Int | 130.0 M | 3.40 |
| Q2 | US | 65.3 M | 16.31 | Int | 136.5 M | 3.50 |
| Q3 | US | 66.3 M | 16.80 | Int | 143.3 M | 3.61 |
| Q4 | US | 67.4 M | 17.30 | Int | 150.5 M | 3.71 |
Revenue is $6358 M, and net income is $4173 M.
And finally, 2030...
| Q | region | DAUq | ARPU | region | DAUq | ARPU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | US | 68.4 M | 17.82 | Int | 158.0 M | 3.82 |
| Q2 | US | 69.5 M | 18.35 | Int | 165.9 M | 3.94 |
| Q3 | US | 70.6 M | 18.90 | Int | 174.2 M | 4.05 |
| Q4 | US | 71.7 M | 19.47 | Int | 182.9 M | 4.18 |
This gives us a revenue of $7952 M, and net income of $5591 M by the end of 2030. With a P/E multiple of 30, that's a market cap of $167.7 B or 567% their current market cap... They'd need a PE of 180 to reach the trillion dollar mark.
That being said, I limited their DAUq growth rate, severely limited ARPU growth compared to Meta, kept the expense growth rates at 8% (despite the average pointing to it staying flat), and didn't include taxes (which they keep getting refunds for). RDDT does have potential to beat this estimate, especially if they issue additional share repurchase programs in the future.
The downside to this story is that, in the short term, tech may continue to slump. If you give RDDT a 30 PE today, it'd be worth half of what it's currently valued at, but then it becomes even more compelling of a story as it'd have a 15 fwd PE...
Disclaimer: 1500 shares