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Ilham Centre chief Hisommudin Bakar says there is a high possibility that the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance will win enough seats in Peninsular Malaysia alone for them to take power.

The blue wave has the potential to sweep up to 122 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia into the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional fold going into the next general election (GE16).

But the think tank Ilham Centre, which arrived at the conclusion, said this projection is premised on voting patterns in Negeri Sembilan spreading across the nation.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said that if Umno and PAS — the Malay-Muslim parties in their respective coalitions — could get their supporters to continue backing each other’s candidates, they could capture seats narrowly won by Pakatan Harapan (PH) previously.

He was responding to a comment made earlier this week by Parti Bangsa Malaysia president Larry Sng that Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) may no longer be the kingmaker in Malaysian politics.

Sng based his views on the fact that BN and PN together already won 104 seats in GE15, just eight short of a simple majority.

If the BN-PN alliance wins the 122 seats as projected by Hisommudin, it would have 10 more than is needed to form the next government.

Hisommudin told FMT this would be possible if Umno and PAS supporters truly accepted each other’s candidates at the grassroots level.

“It can translate into victories in many marginal seats that PH previously won,” he added.

Of the 222 seats in the Dewan Rakyat, 166 are in the peninsula, 31 are in Sarawak and 25 are in Sabah.

Malay dominion

Malay voters account for more than 51% of the electorate in 138 seats in the peninsula. Of these, they make up at least 65% of voters in 86 seats.

However, Hisommudin pointed out, not all these seats are in the Malay heartland. “They include constituencies in towns and in areas at the fringes of the cities,” he said.

He added that in these seats, especially those where the support base between PH and BN or PN is almost on par, “the results could go either way”.

“This is the real battleground. These are seats where the three main coalitions — PH, BN, and PN — are expected to field candidates. This is where it will be determined which side eventually forms the federal government,” Hisommudin added.

He said the closest contest would likely be in seats with multiracial electorates, and they are largely in semi-urban areas. This includes seats where Malays make up 50% to 70% of the electorate.

“This is where Malay supporters of BN-PN will come up against non-Malays who are still inclined to vote for PH,” he added.

Hisommudin believes another hung parliament is less likely if GE16 is a two-horse race between the BN-PN alliance and PH, as votes would not be split as extensively as in multi-cornered contests.

A total of 112 seats is required for a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat. In the last general election in 2022, not a single party or coalition garnered enough seats for even a simple majority, leaving Malaysia with a hung parliament.

Eventually BN, with 30 seats, GPS with 23 and GRS with seven agreed to join PH to form a unity government, paving the way for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim to become prime minister.

Factors to consider

Given that a lot can still happen between now and GE16, the outcome is still very much in the air.

Hisommudin said the prevailing economic situation and cost of living could change voter sentiments as much as disputes among allies and candidate selections.

For Francis Hutchinson, a senior fellow with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, the biggest test will be how BN and PN divide the seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor between them.

So far, he pointed out, the alliance has only been tested in states where reaching a deal was easy for both sides, namely Johor and Negeri Sembilan where PAS is weak.

PN fielded candidates in 11 of the 36 seats at the Negeri Sembilan polls on Aug 1 and 33 of the 56 seats at the Johor state election on July 11.

Bersatu, which has fallen out with PAS, vied for 16 seats in Johor and 24 in Negeri Sembilan but failed to win any. It contested in Negeri Sembilan under its own logo.

Hutchinson said both BN and PN would eye the same Malay-majority and semi-urban seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor, which will make negotiations “very difficult”.

He said that while urban Malays are likely to back BN-PN, it may not be enough to swing the outcome in large, mixed and urban seats where they account for a smaller proportion of the electorate.

In these seats, the voter turnout, especially among non-Malays, would be a determining factor, he added.

Hutchinson added that a formal partnership with PN could also make it harder for BN’s smaller parties to attract non-Malay voters in mixed seats.

“One of the takeaways from the Johor polls is that BN, and particularly its non-Umno components, can be electorally viable. However, this will be undercut if BN explicitly partners with PN.

“Already some within the other BN parties have voiced concern about the implications of teaming up with PN,” he added.

By Nurul Izzah Anwar

The Johor election is a test of institutional integrity, accountability and independent governance. Defeating grand corruption requires leaders who put the rakyat before politics.

This state election is not just about which political party governs Johor; it is also about who governs those political parties — and how far political influence is allowed to shape decision-making beyond the ballot box.

Datuk Dr Mohd Puad Zarkashi’s resignation from UMNO has, predictably, divided opinion. While it has triggered swift political reactions and criticism, it also reflects deeper tensions within party structures, particularly the ability of those outside formal leadership to dictate party strategy, and decision.

Despite being no fan of his, it is perturbing to note the 153 police reports he’s faced, along with the usual public rebuttals. Yet beneath the immediate political recriminations, there remain concerns he has raised, that some would argue, deserve serious consideration.

>“It is the essence of responsibility to put the public good above personal gain.”

— Robert F. Kennedy

Within Malaysia’s constitutional monarchy system, extraordinary powers such as clemency exist as part of a long-established constitutional design and convention. In principle, these powers are exercised with institutional advice and are intended to serve justice in exceptional circumstances.

However, high-profile debates — including discussions around discretionary decisions in major pardon cases — continue to highlight public sensitivity over how such authority is exercised and perceived. These conversations reflect an ongoing tension between legal discretion and the expectation of consistent, transparent governance.

Keeping food prices affordable amid US-Iran conflict, while building resilience

These discussions are not about challenging constitutional foundations. Rather, they underline the need to ensure that discretionary powers are exercised in a way that maintains public trust in the rule of law.

For any governing coalition, this responsibility is even more critical.

They directly affect judicious outcomes affecting livelihoods, public safety, environmental sustainability, and public confidence in government.

Cue 1MDB - when public funds are plundered for political patronage, the people bear the consequences. When hajj money is misappropriated, trust is eroded. When natural resources are extracted without clear accountability, it is communities — not the powerful — who absorb the long-term impact.

Public office was never intended to protect vested interests. It exists to safeguard the public interest.

This is why we must be careful who we elect into office.

Leadership is not measured by loyalty to individuals. It is measured by the willingness to place the rakyat above political convenience.

Since 2018, Malaysia’s reform agenda has been framed around institutional renewal and good governance. That commitment cannot remain rhetorical. It must be reflected in how decisions are made, how institutions are strengthened, and how public trust is maintained. Reform is not sustained through speeches alone. It is sustained through consistent practice — especially when decisions are difficult, unpopular, or politically sensitive.

Within this context, there is a growing concern that political competition is increasingly being viewed through strategic alignment rather than institutional separation. While coalition politics is now a defining feature of Malaysia’s landscape, the expectation remains that governance decisions must not be shaped by partisan leverage or electoral bargaining.

Ultimately, elections determine who forms a government. But they must not determine how government functions.

A broader political reality also looms over this moment.

Angry and frustrated as it may have been - speaking from personal experience - the 2022 general election did not produce a decisive mandate for any single bloc. Indeed, Pakatan Harapan emerged with the most seats, but only through post-election realignments was a stable federal government formed. That outcome was less a clear electoral victory than a product of necessity in coalition formation.

Looking ahead, the political environment is unlikely to remain static. Past electoral outcomes have often been shaped by multi-cornered contests, shifting alliances, and fragmented opposition dynamics. When contests consolidate into direct head-to-head battles, the arithmetic of parliamentary seats changes significantly.

In previous elections, multi-cornered fights have contributed to fragmented vote splits that benefited certain blocs. But political actors are increasingly adapting. Strategic coordination between opposition forces, evolving alliances, and the potential recombination of regional blocs all suggest a more precarious electoral battlefield for PH in future contests.

Without strong coalition anchoring or broadened support beyond core bases, any governing bloc faces increased exposure to electoral volatility. The political advantage gained from fragmented contests in the past cannot be assumed to persist indefinitely.

Against this backdrop, governance stability that favours the rakyat depends on the degree of independence a political entity enjoys as well as its ability to build alliances.

The answer matters because democratic health depends not only on elections, but also on institutions and norms that protect accountability and prevent the capture of public processes by partisan interests.

Without that culture, accountability becomes selective, reforms lose momentum, and public confidence gradually erodes.

As voters prepare to cast their ballots on 11 July, they are deciding more than a government. Voters are also left with the question: how can UMNO, or any other party for that matter, be fit to lead if, or when it doesn’t lead itself?

For me, what’s been most clear is that the war against grand corruption is not decided by a single battle. Instead, it is a multi-year, perhaps multi-generational, conflict that must often be waged under hostile conditions not of our own choosing.