u/zjovicic

I'm really impressed. I don't know the composer, nor the player, but I'm impressed by the piece and the execution. I'm not even sure if this counts as classical, but I guess yes, as he reads from a score, and is dressed in a way appropriate for classical music. :D

Anyway, I'm quite impressed by this piece.

When people talk about impact of AI, they often think in terms of GDP. Like if/when AI causes world GDP growth to skyrocket, like reach 10% per year, then we can talk about transformative AI (TAI), which would completely change the economy.

But I'm wondering, what if we already had this 10% per year growth of real GDP and just failed to measure it?

If we summed up the value of all AI outputs so far in terms of how much money they would cost if humans had to produce them, I think we would get a staggering number. If we added this to GDP, maybe we would already be over 10% per year.

Just imagine, the number of free therapy sessions that people got. Therapy is expensive.

Imagine how much software these AIs produced, and to how many hours of work of programmers is this equivalent?

So if we want to think about it rigorously in economic terms here's what happened.

We got some new goods and services, that are imperfect substitutes (but still substitutes) of some other goods and services, and these substitutes are free.

If, for example, AI graphic design and human graphic design is the same type of product, then in this product category as a whole we see strong deflation. And so in category of software, and so in category of therapy, and in many other categories.

Since real GDP growth is inflation adjusted, it should also be deflation adjusted. (Which we are not doing in the case of AI). If we did it, maybe we would see GDP growth numbers exploding since 2022.

People are getting older. Their ideas too. Eliezer, Bostrom, Scott, etc... you name it. They are all slowly, but surely, getting older.

It's been 3.5 years since the launch of ChatGPT. Now we live in a radically different world from the one we had before that. Not only do we have chatbots, but also we have very sophisticated models for generating pictures, videos, and music! Basically each element of "multimedia" is covered. Whatever you want, you can generate it via AI.

I'm quite hooked to Suno for song generation. I simply enjoy it. It gives me good times experimenting with lyrics, and uploaded audios, and seeing how it turns out to be.

Channels that feature AI generated videos like Chloe vs. history got a huge following on YouTube very quickly.

So where we are really today? To what point did we get? Seems like rationalist and effective altruist circles don't really have many fresh ideas anymore.

2025 was crazy. It gave us 2 very influential works: "AI 2027", and "If anyone builds it, everyone dies". But it's all in the past. I've heard they are working on new work: "AI 2030", but I don't know when it will get published.

I think it's only now, in 2026, that AI has become a really important topic in public discourse. What I notice is a lot of backlash. But I also notice that most people focus on relatively inconsequential issues, such as power and water consumption, and copyright, rather than existential risk and the potential for making human work obsolete.

So I'm kind of confused about how to orient myself when it comes to current times. On one hand ideas are getting old and losing their edge slowly. On the other hand, actual disruption is getting more and more prominent.

But some of the key metrics are still almost completely unaffected, so people can still easily dismiss AI as a bubble or hype. For example US unemployment rate is still around 4.3% (April 2026) which is perfectly in line with "business as usual" scenario.

Also on Manifold, when it comes to question "Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?" futurama scenario still leads, with 40% probability. Futurama basically means "AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues"

I know many measures have failed to increase birth rates. I know government pumping money will make a small difference but won't push TFR over 2.1. I know not a single developed country went back to >2.1 once it fell below it.

But still, I feel people are talking about it in too deterministic tone. As if it's impossible to change anything about it.

Of course it's not impossible. Laws of physics allow for TFR to get way above 2.1 in developed countries again.

We haven't yet exhausted all the approaches to the problems. We have exhausted some, and we've concluded they aren't effective enough. But there are other approaches. And the more serious and devastating the problem becomes, the stronger will be the incentive to find approaches that actually work.

Now, of course, I am not advocating try all sorts of totalitarian, crazy, weird measures, just to push it above 2.1. There are of course approaches that are too crazy, too totalitarian, too weird, too unethical, and simply unacceptable.

But between those "crazy" measures, and what we've actually tried, there is still a wide range of approaches, that aren't that crazy, that can be defended, and that we haven't tried at all.

Here are some:

1. Parent's salary - each parent receives a "parent's salary" on top of their other sources of income in the amount of 33% of the average salary in that country, for each kid they have. So if a family has one child - dad gets 33%, mom gets 33%... the family as a whole gets 66% of additional average salary, on top of what they earn normally on their jobs. This parent's salary lasts until kids turn 18. For each additional child, they get 33% more. So if they have 3 kids: each parent gets 99% of additional average salary.

Basically a family with 3 kids would have mom's regular salary + dad's regular salary + mom's parent's salary (99% of average) + dad's parent's salary (99% of average). Basically on top of their normal wages, they would have almost 2 full additional salaries. These salaries should last for each kid until they turn 18. As soon as the first child turns 18, they lose parent's salary that covers that child.

This would make having kids economically profitable and attractive again.

2. Extra votes for parents - Each parent besides their own vote, gets half a vote on behalf of each of their children. So if you have 3 kids... your have 2.5 votes on elections. Those additional votes go to both parents. So a family with 3 kids, would get 5 votes in total, instead of 2.

3. Accelerated learning programs. Reform entire education system so that everyone completes school at the age of 19. Use extensive psychological testing (and IQ testing) to determine for each child which educational trajectory is best. Of course kids themselves would have their own input into this. But the decision making would be guided.
   The point would be the following: average or slightly above average students would, by the age of 19 complete high school or maybe even undergraduate college programs. Those below average would learn some trade and get basic high school education. And those gifted would, due to consistent accelerated path from the very onset, by the age of 19, have an equivalent of PhD level education. So no one would need to stay in school until they are 25 or 30. Everyone could start working at 20.

I want to appreciate AI songs by other creators. Mostly I don't manage to really appreciate such songs though. But there are some exceptions. Here I will tell you what it takes for me to really appreciate an AI song made by someone other than myself.

1. Song being good is not enough. - AI can make songs that sound good, but I don't care about it. If it's just a standard, average, good sounding song, the fact that it's made by AI tremendously diminishes its value in my book. The time I have in life is limited. So if it's just a standard, generic, good song, I don't care about it. I'd rather listen to a song that's human made, if it's just a standard, normal, good song.

2. Just sharing it without info about why should I care is not enough. - You just share it here, not much info about how the song came to be, what was the inspiration, how it was made... I most likely won't care about such a song. I want to know how you made the song. Did you write your own lyrics? What was your inspiration? Did you upload your own audio? Why you picked certain topic, etc... You need to present a song in a way that I will find interesting and that will arouse my curiosity. It doesn't have to be a long, detailed description. Just a sentence or 2 is enough.

3. The song should try to achieve something crazy and original. It should mainly operate outside of the Overton window of mainstream music production. It should be more indie than indie. It should be borderline outsider music. I'm curious about crazy, whimsy songs. I'm curious about songs that treat some important but neglected topics that don't get enough airtime on regular radio. I'm curious about songs that are provocative. I'm curious about lyrics that would likely be censored by a mainstream record label. For example, there's a guy in Serbia who made a song criticizing current regime and the song went viral. The reason: song was very funny, whimsical, used crazy lyrics, and was very aware of the current political situation. It made a genuine contribution to the current political discourse. Based on that single song, the creator became famous on YouTube and attracted a sizeable audience.

4. The song should have strong elements of self expression. Either

- your own lyrics

- OR your own uploaded audio (melody, drumming, whistling, singing)

- OR at least a very detailed prompt and meticulous choice of subject matter, that makes song truly yours. I don't care if Claude, or ChatGPT or even Suno writes lyrics for you, as long as those lyrics express something you wanted to broadcast to the world, something that matters to you, and something you feel needed to be said. By signing the song, giving it your stamp of approval you make the song yours and it reflects what you stand for.

5. I also appreciate covers of very old songs in new styles, translations and adaptations from one language or culture to another, re-imagining classical melodies, and all sorts of experimental work. I don't appreciate generic songs. If I want to listen to something standard and generic, I'll check billboard hot 100, or EURO 200, not what some rando shared here.

So basically those are the tips how to make me interested in your song. I don't always respect all of those tips myslef, but at least I try to.

I try to describe a song and why it matters to me. I almost always use either my own lyrics, or my own audio, or sometimes both. Sometimes I also experiment with weird and crazy genre combinations. Sometimes I cover old songs, or translate from one language to another.

Those are the things that I think AI music CAN DO that standard music industry can't. I think this is where we have some chance to compete. I don't think we have any chance to compete on their native territory.

Since this is my first, post, yes, I've read the rules.

This is based on a melody I invented myself during an improvisation session, and uploaded to Suno. Suno worked from that.

There is a slow buildup and anthemic quality to this track.

Obožavam biti u knjižari i nikad mi nije dosadno. Mogao bih satima razgledati knjige. Ali rijetko kad nešto pazarim, jer sam već napunio kuću poprilično velikim brojem knjiga, od kojih mnoge nažalost nisam pročitao. Nisam ja sad neki tip koji baš ništa ne čita. Čitam. Ali ne toliko koliko čitaju ljudi koji čitaju. Pročitao sam možda 50-60 knjiga u životu, od kojih su mnogi klasici. I to je to prosjek 1-2 knjige godišnje. U mnogim godinama 0. U nekim godinama i 5-6. Ali sam pročitao između ostalog i Braću Karamazove (to mi je najbolja knjiga svih vremena), Rat i mir, Anu Karenjinu, Čarobni brijeg, Vrli novi svijet, Životinjsku farmu, Verenici od Manconija, Korekcije od Frenzena, Hodočašće Arsenija Njegovana (odlična domaća knjiga), Gordost i predrasude, ponešto od Murakamija itd... Inače užasno sporo čitam, i to otvoreno priznam i ne stidim se toga. U zavisnosti od veličine fonta, težine materijala i moje koncentracije to je 10 do 20 stranica na sat. Ne trudim se da čitam brže jer mi to prosto ne dolazi prirodno. Čitam tempom koji mi je normalan, i otrprilike sličan mojoj brzini govora. Al nebitno sad sve to otišao sam previše u digresiju... Digresija, čisto da vam moj profil bude jasniji.

Elem, da se vratim na knjižaru. Mogao bi sate u njoj provoditi. Ali sam svjestan koliko sam navučen na Internet, kompjuter, telefon, i koliko uvijek postoji opasnost da ću kupiti knjigu, a da je neću pročitati. A znam takođe da me u kući na policama čeka solidan broj knjiga koje uopšte nisu loše, a koje još nisam pročitao. Pa onda ispada glupo, i bacanje para kupovati još, kad nisi pročitao ni mnogo od onoga što imaš. I tu je onda taj osjećaj neprijatnosti. Želiš nešto da kupiš, a nešto te koči. Privlači te taj svijet, a opet osjećaš da mu suštinski ne pripadaš.

I šta se onda tu još javlja?

Prvo, želja da razgovaram sa prodavcima o knjigama, da pitam za neku preporuku, itd... A onda i nešto što me izuzetno koči u tome, tako da u praksi skoro nikad ništa ne pitam, već samo sam razgledam, nekad zaista ostanem i sat vremena u knjižari. Obiđem sve police. U najbližoj knjižari tačno znam gdje šta stoji.

A onda se ponekad zapitam, ko su tu ustvari glavne mušterije? Od čega oni imaju profit? Ko kupuje knjige? Ko čita? Šta ljudi kupuju i šta čitaju? Često mi padne na pamet pitanje, ko je prava čitalačka publika u Srbiji, u smislu da je u toku s trendovima, da prati, da redovno čita, i da bi znao reći koju pametnu, recimo o istoriji srpske i svjetske književnosti u zadnjih 20-30 godina. U smislu da je pročitao svake godine bar jednu novu domaću i jednu novu stranu knjigu. Da zna koji su savremeni srpski pisci, i gdje je kome mjesto. Da je pročitao većinu knjiga koje su dobile Ninovu nagradu, i da bi znao artikulisano da vrednuje novu knjigu poredeći je sa onim što je već bilo. Ja možda tu pretjerujem, ali imam neki osjećaj, da bi čovjek bio u toku s književnošću, morao bi imati pročitanih bar 100 knjiga iz zadnih 20 godina, pa da onda zna otprilike šta tu ima, koje se teme obrađuju, ko šta tu uspijeva postići itd.

Ja kad sam bio treći ili četvrti razred osnovne, mi smo krenuli dobijati lektire jednom mjesečno. Ako bi uzeo da je to neki razuman tempo, jedna knjiga mjesečno, 12 knjiga godišnje. Da sam od svoje desete godine imao tu naviku, koja nije neki lud tempo, dosad bi pročitao 336 knjiga. Onda se možda ne bi osjećao toliko kao gost u knjižari, iako tu volim biti, i poštujem knjige i književnost, i imam interesovanje, ali prosto, više sam zainteresovani gost, nego na domaćem terenu.

Apparently 7 millions songs per day are made by Suno. Even if just 1 in 10,000 of these songs was awesome, it would mean 700 awesome songs per day. 255,500 awesome songs per year.

Who's gonna discover all those gems hiding within the flood? Who's gonna recognize the songs that are worthy and protect them from the oblivion?

Right now, vibe coding is becoming a serious business. Google has apparently adopted AI first approach to software development. So it's definitely not a joke.

But, have you thought about this:

Imagine yourself deciding to go all-in into vibecoding. So you vibe code like a full time job, 8 hours a day. The time you don't vibe code in these 8 hours, you spend brainstorming ideas for next projects.

Since vibe coding is orders of magnitude faster than classical coding, if you just spent a couple of months doing this, I can imagine you could implement each and every sane idea that came to your mind. You'd exhaust your ideas rather quickly. And what then?

And now imagine this multiplied by millions of other people who do the same thing at roughly the same time.

Seems like it would result in a deluge of software, exhaustion of ideas, and what then?

I mean the problem perhaps existed in the past, but now it's a huge difference when you can make a thing that took 3 months in the past, in 3 days or less.

So what's next after this deluge?

I can imagine this to be just a short term phase. Some people will make fortunes or achieve some important positions or influence in this period. Most will fail. But when it all ends, something else will happen.

I'm not sure what will that thing be.

Da li jednako pratite (ili ne pratite) fudbal kao i ranije, ili se to promijenilo?

Da li pratite više ili manje sad u odnosu na ranije?

Ne mislim na domaći fudbal, već generalno, razne evropske lige, južnoameričke lige, liga Evrope, liga šampiona, itd...

Zanima me da li je fudbal manje bitan generaciji Z, pa možda i milenijalcima?

Moja pretpostavka polazi od toga što se gledanje fudbala vezuje za klasični TV, barem ja nisam toliko upućen u praćenje utakmica na netu.

A mlađe generacije sve manje gledaju televiziju, a stalno vise na telefonu ili kompjuteru. Takođe kompjuteri i telefoni nude stalnu interakciju. Kapacitet držanja pažnje nam se svima srozao zbog kratkih videa, skrolovanja, itd.

Utakmica ipak od tebe zahtjeva da sjediš i da gledaš 2 sata nešto što nije toliko ekstremno zanimljivo i u čemu ne učestvuješ. Dakle zahtijeva dozu strpljivosti.

Zato me interesuje da li je fudbal i dalje bitan i mlađim generacijama, ili su donekle batalili to?

(Možda su samo nerdovi (poput mene) batalili, ali nerdovi nikad nisu naročito ni pratili, da se ne lažemo)

I'm wondering what are your strengths, weaknesses and how your typical workflow goes.

I'm especially interested in how often you write your own lyrics, and how often you upload your own audio.

Now here's my situation:

Strengths:

I can write decent lyrics when I know what to write about. In 90% of the cases, if the song is with lyrics, I write my own lyrics. In some rare cases I used other AIs, like Claude or ChatGPT to give me lyrics based on what I wanted to achieve, but I wasn't satisfied with end result. Right now it seems that AIs don't have good sense for writing lyrics, especially because they need to accomplish many things at the same time which is very difficult. Lyrics need to have controlled number of syllables AND make sense AND be catchy AND not be cliche, all at the same time. When you write lyrics you must have at least a vague idea of some potential melody.

I also often upload my own audio, but not always. I would say, in the past, I uploaded my own audio in like 20-30% of the cases, but nowadays, I upload it in 60-70% of cases. When I make instrumental songs, like classical music or techno without lyrics, then I upload audio in nearly 100% of the cases, because if there are no lyrics, audio is the only way for me to express myself. I can invent melodies without too much difficulty, and I can also invent rhythms which I drum on the table, and then upload it to Suno.

Weaknesses: I am bad at deep knowledge of genres and styles, and I often write just very basic descriptions of genres in the "styles" textbox. For me the standard way of expressing myself is through writing lyrics and uploading audio, and just picking a genre or a few genres and that's it. I'm not good at precisely describing the song in details.

Also, I still haven't tried using studio, so this is obviously weakness, but right now I feel I can get solid results even without it.

I am also not that good when it comes to getting ideas for lyrics. I feel most of the standard pop music topics have already been explored ad nauseam, and it feels kind of fake writing another song about heartbreak, jealousy or whatever. Especially since I myself am not experiencing love troubles right now. So my lyrics tend to lean more towards humor, sometimes political or social commentary (though I am always afraid of sounding preachy and pedagogical when I do it), or just silliness. Some of the topics I wrote songs on so far:

- absurdity of "red flags" being applied even to trivial things

- criticism of Bitcoin

- odes to my hometown, to watermelon, to ajvar (a type of Balkan vegetable spread)

- why I like to listen to podcasts

- why no one writes fiction about online life even if this is the "place" where we spend most of our lives

I also set poems of certain poets to music. I adapted certain songs for children from Serbian to English, and finally I made many purely instrumental songs (classical music or EDM with various folk elements), based on melodies that I whistled, sung, or rhythms that I drummed on the table.

Workflow:

1. Upload audio - typically I record it on the spot. (can be skipped)

2. Write lyrics - can be skipped for purely instrumental songs

3. Pick styles - usually 1-3 styles... like techno, indie rock, hard rock, orchestral classical music, Celtic folk, Italian folk, chalga, trance, psychedelic rock, reggae, punk rock, etc...

4. Adjust weirdness, style influence and audio influence.

I tend to keep it all high. I want relatively high weirdness because I want to make something unique, and not something that will sound like any other song. I want style influence to be high, because if I picked certain genres, I had a good reason for it. I really want to make Suno combine those genres. Sometimes I pick a lower number if I feel indecisive about genres and feel like maybe Suno could do it better on its own. Finally I want audio influence to be high, because if I made some effort to invent a melody or rhythm, I want it to be prominently used in the song.

Of course these are not hard rules, just general tendencies.

Now I'm wondering what are your strengths, weaknesses, and workflow?