r/Res_Publica_DE

Look at the left image. That's 1877. The darkest red represents ocean temperatures so far above average that the resulting famine killed 3-4% of the entire global population.

The right image is May 2026.

This is not a drill.

NOAA has now placed the probability of a Super El Niño forming by winter at over 95%. Climate models show central Pacific temperatures potentially exceeding 3°C above average, a level not seen since that 1877 event. The ECMWF's May update has moved to 100% probability of a super El Niño forming by November.

What the last major events actually cost:

The 1982-83 El Niño: $4.1 trillion in global economic losses, measured over five years. Catastrophic floods across South America. Devastating droughts across Africa and Asia.

The 1997-98 El Niño: $5.7 trillion in global income losses. 16% of the world's coral reefs died. Air temperature spiked 1.5°C above normal. El Niño-fueled wildfires contributed to thousands of premature deaths from air pollution.

The 2015-16 El Niño: 100,000 deaths linked to fires and air pollution alone, according to Harvard researchers. $3.9 trillion in economic damage.

Now add climate change on top.

The planet is already at record temperatures. The last decade was the hottest on record. El Niño doesn't cause global warming, but it releases stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, sending global temperatures even higher. Scientists warn this event could push global average temperatures past 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, potentially shattering the Paris Agreement targets in real time.

This isn't about weather. It's about food security, infrastructure, human lives, and an economic shock arriving at a moment when the world is already stretched thin.

We need to prepare. And not just locally.

A Super El Niño doesn't respect borders. The crop failures happen in one hemisphere, the food price spikes happen everywhere. The floods destroy infrastructure in Southeast Asia, the supply chain disruptions hit Europe and North America months later. The droughts in Africa drive migration that reshapes political systems worldwide.

Preparation means early warning systems, international food reserves, coordinated disaster response, and governments that actually take climate forecasts seriously before the disaster, not after. The 1877 event killed tens of millions partly because no one saw it coming and no one was coordinating a response. We have the science now. The question is whether we have the political will.

The ICC prosecutor has filed a secret request for an arrest warrant against Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The charges include forced displacement of Palestinians, transfer of Israeli settlers into occupied territory, persecution, and apartheid. If approved by the judges, it would be the first arrest warrant ever issued by an international court specifically for the crime of apartheid.

Note the distinction: this is an application, not an issued warrant. The pre-trial chamber still has to review the evidence and decide whether "reasonable grounds" exist. That process could take months.

Smotrich's response at a press conference today was this: "Issuing an arrest warrant for the Prime Minister is a declaration of war. Issuing an arrest warrant for the Defense Minister and the Finance Minister is a declaration of war. We will respond to a declaration of war with war."

Think about that framing for a moment. A court investigating alleged war crimes is the aggressor. A minister facing accusations of forcibly displacing civilians is the victim. The institution designed to hold individuals accountable for crimes against humanity is, in his words, antisemitic.

This is the same minister who said in 2024 that starving two million Palestinian civilians in Gaza might be "justified and moral." The ICC apparently agrees that's worth investigating.

Trump und die Manipulation der Massen.

Angela Merkel hat sich heute auf der re:publica in Berlin zum Ukraine-Krieg geäußert.

Beim WDR Europaforum sagte sie, Europa setze sein diplomatisches Potenzial nicht ausreichend ein. Militärische Unterstützung für die Ukraine hält sie für richtig, aber eben nicht als Ersatz für Diplomatie.

Als Vermittlerin schließt sie sich selbst aus, und zwar mit einem einfachen Argument: Sie hat kein Amt mehr, also auch kein politisches Gewicht. Diplomatie braucht Mandat, nicht nur persönliche Kontakte.

Das grundlegende Problem bleibt: Europa sucht jemanden der in Moskau gehört wird und gleichzeitig westliche Glaubwürdigkeit besitzt. Schröder fällt wegen Putin-Nähe aus. Kallas hat eine Vermittlerrolle abgelehnt. Stubb und Draghi werden genannt, aber niemand hat bisher ein echtes Mandat.

Wer wäre eurer Meinung nach der richtige Vermittler aus Deutschland oder der EU?

Last night, Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on the Moscow region since the war began. Over 550 drones were deployed. Russia claims its air defenses intercepted the majority, but at least four people were killed - three in the Moscow region, one in Belgorod. Debris from shot-down drones struck residential buildings and fell near Russia's largest airport.

Ukraine's Security Service confirmed it conducted the operation jointly with the Armed Forces, targeting military-industrial facilities, fuel infrastructure, and air defense systems in the Moscow region.

Zelenskyy called it "entirely justified." The attack came one week after Trump's ceasefire expired, and directly after Russia killed 24 civilians in a single apartment building in Kyiv. His message was blunt: "Moscow is no longer out of reach."

In parallel, Ukraine sank four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea this month alone - a body of water Russia had used as a safe launch platform for cruise missiles.

Russia's reaction was telling: Kremlin spokesman Peskow signaled openness to talks with the EU hours after the strikes. Bombs, apparently, are a more effective diplomatic language than negotiations.

This war has now lasted over four years. Putin invaded with the promise of a swift victory and a stable imperial sphere. What he got instead: a destroyed generation of Russian soldiers, an economy kept alive on wartime spending, a NATO that expanded rather than retreated, and now drones over Moscow. There is no version of this where Russia wins something worth the cost.

The only question left is how many more people have to die before that becomes undeniable.

Portugal hat heute einen der teuersten Wohnungsmärkte Südeuropas. Die Hauspreise +62% seit 2007, Mieten steigen seit 2012 ohne Pause. Dies sind die direkten Folgen von vier politischen Entscheidungen:

1. NRAU 2012 – Troika zwang Portugal zur Mietliberalisierung. Altmietverträge kündbar, Räumungsverfahren vereinfacht. Ergebnis: 5,5 Zwangsräumungen pro Tag bis 2016.

2. Golden Visa – Immobilienkauf = EU-Aufenthaltstitel. 9.514 Visa von 2012–2020, Kapital floss direkt in Lissabons Innenstädte.

3. NHR-Programm – 10 Jahre Steuerprivilegien für wohlhabende EU-Ausländer. Europäische Rentner mit hohen Pensionen zogen massenhaft nach Portugal und kauften.

4. Airbnb-Deregulierung – Kurzzeitvermietung vollständig liberalisiert. Übernachtungsgäste: 13,8 → 27,2 Mio. (2012–2019). 16.000 Airbnb-Inserate allein in Lissabon (2018).

Alle vier Maßnahmen kamen gleichzeitig nach der Eurokrise. Das war kein Zufall.

Zur kompletten Analyse: https://respublica.media/wohnen-als-ware-wie-neoliberale-politik-portugals-wohnungskrise-verstaerkte/

For 11 days, miners, teachers, farmers, transport workers and indigenous communities have been blockading the roads into La Paz. Not because they're against reform. Because the reform is landing entirely on them.

Rodrigo Paz took office six months ago promising to end Bolivia's worst economic crisis in four decades. What that meant in practice: scrapping a fuel subsidy that had kept prices stable since 2006. Diesel nearly tripled overnight. Transport workers say the cheap replacement fuel the government sourced damaged over 10,000 vehicles. The people most exposed to rising costs - the ones who drive trucks, mine cooperatives, grow coca, teach in rural schools - are the ones paying for a crisis they didn't create.

The Ponchos Rojos, one of Bolivia's most prominent indigenous federations, put it plainly: "We demand the immediate resignation of this treasonous and incapable government. We'll fight to the death, brothers, to remove this treasonous government."

That's not hyperbole. Miners were setting off dynamite sticks outside the presidential palace last week. On Saturday, Paz responded with Operation "Corredor humanitario": 2,500 police and 1,000 soldiers to clear the blockades, 57 people arrested. The stated reason was getting food and medicine into the capital. The actual situation is a government trying to survive contact with the people it governs.

The government reached a deal with miners after 12 hours of talks. The blockades haven't fully cleared. The COB's general strike is still active.

Fuel price before subsidy cut: diesel 3.72 bolivianos. After: 9.80. Inflation: 14%. Blockades at peak: 67. Troops deployed Saturday: 3,500. Arrested: 57.

„Ich glaube, man muss betrachten, was Merz jetzt gemacht hat in dem Jahr, in dem er Bundeskanzler ist. Statt um Reformen zu werben und die Leute wirklich zu überzeugen zu versuchen, machte er den Leuten eher Angst.“

Das Weltkarten-Feature hat ein größeres Update bekommen.

Die Karte gibt es jetzt auch als drehbaren Globus, dazu kommen Indikatoren aus Bereichen wie Demokratie, Wirtschaft, Umwelt und Sicherheit.

Das größte neue Feature ist der Handel-Tab. Du klickst auf Frankreich, gehst auf Handel, und siehst Exporte 648 Mrd. $, Importe 785 Mrd. $, Handelsbilanz 2017-2024 als Chart, und darunter aufgeschlüsselt nach Partnern.

Deutschland ist Frankreichs größter Exportabnehmer mit 83,5 Mrd. $, größter Importlieferant mit 114,8 Mrd. $. Wenn du Germany aufklappst, siehst du welche Warengruppen das sind - Maschinen, Fahrzeuge, Chemie, Metalle.

Das gilt für jedes Land auf der Karte.

Daten kommen aus UN Comtrade via CEPII BACI, Stand 2024.

Vergleichs-Tab zwischen mehreren Ländern ist noch in Arbeit.

Landtagswahl: 6. September 2026

Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt • Infratest dimap für MDR, MZ, Volksstimme

https://x.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/2052246617428771038

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm

Just read a study that didn't exactly surprise me, but the scale of it did.

Researchers at the University of Amsterdam analyzed 32 million tweets from 8,198 parliamentarians across 26 countries, spanning six years and multiple election cycles.

The question was simple: which parties spread misinformation?

The answer is unambiguous. Radical-right populism is the single strongest predictor. Not populism in general, not the left, not mainstream right-wing parties. Specifically the radical right fringe, and consistently so across all 26 countries.

So when media talks about "growing distrust in institutions" or "political disillusionment" as if it's some broad societal phenomenon with no clear cause, the data says otherwise. There's a driver. And it's pretty well documented at this point.

Study in the first comment.