Why policies that poll well, are rarely implemented.

Why policies that poll well, are rarely implemented.

There's reasons as to why policies that poll well, don't end up translating into actual implementation, that don't get talked about nearly enough.


The first one, is the issue of actual turnout when the policy in question is actually put up to a vote. Polls don't determine what the government does: Turnout does. To highlight this, lets establish a hypothetical:

1000 people are surveyed about whether or not they support X policy. 650 people say they support it; 350 people are against.

Now, the policy is put up to an actual, official vote.

Out of the 650 people who expressed support in the survey, only 163 people actually show up to vote. But for the opposition group, 263 people showed up.

The opposition ends up winning, and gets the policy shot down; despite the polling suggesting that it should've won.

This highlights the critical flaw in using polling to gauge support for a policy: It's not how the government actually gauges what the public does and doesn't want. They look at who's actually showing up.


The second reason, is that voting isn't the end-all-be-all of the decision making process. This is the case in any democracy that I know of; and it is certainly the case in the USA.

One major roadblock that stops the government from building infrastructure quickly and cheaply, is how we handle our environmental review process.

There is no cap to how long it can take. There is no cap to how long the community input period is. We let projects get sued by opposition groups endlessly, until they successfully dilute or outright kill the project.

So when the government proposes, say, turning part/all of a thoroughfare into a BRT/LRT route, or adding in bike lanes, the government is forced to go through that whole exhaustive process; even if there's already a plethora of evidence stating "this is net-positive". And the opposition within the affected area tend to come out in FAR greater numbers than the supporters; further lengthing the time between planning and implementation. And if the project manages to get past all of that: The opposition can just sue the government and try to force it to so XYZ thing to "satisfy" them; further extending the planning period, and implementation period. And all of these things help to balloon the total costs of the project.

And even beyond the community review part: Opponents to a project typically organize far more to oppose even the idea of it, than supporters do. Negative emotions are far stronger than positive ones. And this also translates into votes; which means that they'll end up holding much more power to determine who ends up in office. This disincentivizes potential candidates who support such projects, from running; resulting in candidates who'll support what the opposers support.

And even if the voting doesn't stop such a candidate from winning: The opposition tend to consistently show up to place pressure on the elected official to drastically change their plans, or outright cancel them all together.


A third seldomly mentioned reason, is that certain policies, when the costs to the individual are pointed out, tend to drop significantly in support.

Support to build more housing polls very well; but support craters when the individual costs are mentioned. Single-payer healthcare is also a policy that sees support crater when the costs are mentioned. And as seen in that single-payer survey: Even when the benefits are mentioned, it is a near perfect split between opposition and support.

Now, combine that with the previous two points made, and it becomes even more evident about exactly why a policy that is stated to poll well, ends up not actually getting implemented.


The overall lesson I am trying to instill here, is that it is CRITICAL that those who support XYZ policy, to actually go out and participate in the decision making process to get it implemented. The government doesn’t listen to those who stay home; they listen to who is the largest and is most consistently placing the most pressure on them to do something.

u/Aven_Osten — 1 day ago

What do you think the distribution of powers and responsibilities between the federal government and the states should look like?

With everything that has occurred thus far at the federal level, there’s bound to be at least a small shift in the overall sentiment of how much and how many power(s) and responsibility(ies) the federal and state government(s) should have over certain types of infrastructure, services, programs, and overall policies.

So, I’m interested in seeing if anyone has changed their stance(s) on this compared to 6, 12, 24, etc, months ago. This could be, but is not limited to:

  • Education
  • Healthcare
  • Social services
  • Transportation
  • Utilities
  • Public safety
  • Labor policy
  • Fiscal policy
  • Overall economic development policies
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u/Aven_Osten — 2 days ago

What do you think the distribution of powers and responsibilities between the federal government and the states should look like?

With everything that has occurred thus far at the federal level, there’s bound to be at least a small shift in the overall sentiment of how much and how many power(s) and responsibility(ies) the federal and state government(s) should have over certain types of infrastructure, services, programs, and overall policies.

So, I’m interested in seeing if anyone has changed their stance(s) on this compared to 6, 12, 24, etc, months ago. This could be, but is not limited to:

  • Education
  • Healthcare
  • Social services
  • Transportation
  • Utilities
  • Public safety
  • Labor policy
  • Fiscal policy
  • Overall economic development policies
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u/Aven_Osten — 2 days ago

Support for societally beneficial policies fall significantly once the costs to the individual(s) are mentioned

A very frequently made complaint when it comes to any government here in the USA, is that it rarely/never implements policies that actually work for the people.

The completely ignored reality as to why that is, is because most people don't actually want to accept the costs of having that policy. Americans always expect the costs of a policy they support, to be pushed off to someone else.

This also applies to policies to fix problems, that don't necessarily involve spending money. This is the case regarding housing. Our housing crisis will only be resolved via building more housing; and most people will acknowledge this. But support to actually do it drops off a cliff when that housing is built near them.

This is the real reason why surface-level policies like "make housing more affordable" or "make childcare more affordable", very often fail to ever get implemented. It costs money; and oftentimes a lot of it. And most people just don't want to make that sacrifice.

u/Aven_Osten — 3 days ago

What is your vision for America?

This question is inspired by this video by Jamelle Boue.

He claims that it isn't enough for the Democratic Party to just have a bunch of policies; he states that the party needs a broad vision for how they want the country to work/look like, that it can especially mass-message to people. Much like how Project 2025 isn't merely a policy book, but a statement of a vision for how the country looks and works.

u/Aven_Osten — 7 days ago

I think it's time that the American public sits down and talks about what they actually want the government to do.

Citizens have a duty to go out and vote, message their representatives, speak out at public meetings and hearings, and organize with like-minded people to pressure elected officials to do what they want them to do.

The citizenry has actively made the government more and more democratic over the past few decades. It tosses out anybody who does anything unpopular; we're so democratic now, that the people have tight control over what others can do with their properties, if it happens to inconvenience them in some way. The public can very easily stop projects from happening, with enough people shouting down the proposal.

And yet, when it comes time to place the blame where it belongs, for the government doing something that ends up causing net-harm: Everyone wants to act like that the government was supposed to "just be competent" and "just do thd right thing"; as if the government wasn't explicitly stripped of its ability to act independently, because people decided that it should only do what is popular.


Way too often, whenever it is pointed out the duties and responsibilities that every citizen has in our democracy to get the government to do stuff, people will whine about how, "I (they) shouldn't have to do all of that! I don't have time for that!". Half the population don't vote in state and federal elections; that skyrockets to 80% for local elections. An even smaller percentage of people commit to any of their other duties and responsibilities. It's always just demands for the government to "just be competent" with zero public input at all. But when it does something unpopular: All of the sudden they "should be listening to the people".


I think it's time for us to have a very serious talk about what we actually want the government to look like.

Do we want a government that is proactive and data/evidence driven? Do we want a democracy to where the most anyone has to get involved is voting for a party/head of government/representative? Or do we want a government that just does what the public wants; irrespective of how harmful it may be?

Because this cycle of demanding more democracy, and then rejecting the duties and responsibilities that come with more democracy when it comes time to point the finger at who put (and keeps putting) corrupt and incompetent people into office, is not sustainable. We seriously need to figure out how much we want the government to focus on the collective good, vs individual interests; what is popular, vs what is right.

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u/Aven_Osten — 7 days ago

I think it's time we really sit down and talk about what we actually want from our government.

People keep demanding more democracy and public accountability, yet they won't actually go out and fullfil their duties and responsibilities that comes with that.

People keep demanding that the government "just be competent" and "just use tax dollars efficiently"; as if the public has absolutely zero responsibility in telling the government where they want that money to go, or how to solve a problem. But when the government actually is proactive for once: Most people go out in droves to stop it.


I think America, as a country, really needs to have a tough conversation about how we actually want the government to work. Because it is not sustainable to keep switching back and fourth between demanding more democratic input in decision making, and then throwing up our hands and pretending we don't, and shouldn't, have any control over the decision making process, when said decisions made end up hurting more than helping.

Do we want a proactive, data and evidence driven government; or do we want a reactionary government that just does whatever the public wants it to do? Because we can't both expect the government to "just be competent" with zero public input, but also placate to every demand made by the public/only do what's popular to do.

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u/Aven_Osten — 7 days ago
▲ 1 r/Rants

We need to measure poverty better.

In the USA, we have a serious issue with our current poverty levels. The federal thresholds are based on a very simplistic, and incredibly flawed, equation of "minimum monthly food costs in 1963 x 3, adjusted yearly for inflation".

This is obviously so incredibly flawed, that it is honestly abhorrent how we as society have decided that this is just...okay. I think any sensible person understands that this...does NOT represent that ACTUAL minimum costs of living. And additionally: It is a singular federal line; and that just completely ignores the HUNDREDS of economic units that exist within this country, that has their own costs of living that can swing WILDLY from each other.

We really, REALLY need to do a massive overhaul with how we currently measure poverty. And I believe that my overhaul would best accomplish this, as it accounts for ACTUAL living costs at the level(s) of government where they're ACTUALLY FELT.

I'll detail what my method of measuring poverty is, down below; for those who care to read it, anyways.


Core Components

  • Housing
  • Food
  • Transportation
  • Health Insurance
  • Clothing
  • Hygiene
  • Childcare
  • Broadband
  • Water
  • Electricity
  • Debt Payments (excluding mortgage)

Household Types

  • Renters; Childless
  • Renters; With Children
  • Homeowners; Childless; With Mortgage
  • Homeowners; Childless; Without Mortgage
  • Homeowners; With Children; With Mortgage
  • Homeowners; With Children; Without Mortgage

Selected Measurements

  • Rent: 5th percentile for selected economic unit; adjusted for household composition
  • Mortgage: Reported payments on mortgage
  • Food: Estimated minimum for healthy diet within selected economic unit; adjusted for household composition
  • Transportation: Mass transit fares; Average car transportation cost for alternative; adjusted for household composition
  • Health Insurance: Minimum monthly cost for eligible plan
  • Clothing: BLS C.E.S. for Apparel; adjusted for household composition
  • Hygiene: BLA C.E.S. for Personal Care; adjusted for household composition
  • Childcare: Child-specific costs of care not already accounted for via other components
  • Broadband: Minimum cost of broadband service within selected economic unit
  • Water: Estimated minimum cost of water bill for minimum hydration needs and hygiene needs, plus 100% of that minimum
  • Electricity: Reported payments on electricity
  • Debt Payments: Reported payments on existing debt (excluding mortgage payments)

(To make it clear: All measurements are done at the CSA/metro/micro/county levels, as much as possible)


And partially "just for fun": I made my own Income Group Definitions (I.G.D.s). They're a derivative of the 50/30/20 rule, to where the higher the income, the more a household falls into the "50/30/20 rule", or even exceeds it.

Income Group Definitions

  • Very Low Income: Net-Income =  100% or less of estimated living minimum for household
  • Low Income: Net-Income = 100% - 133.33% of estimated living minimum for household
  • Moderate Income: Net-Income =  133.33% - 200% of estimated living minimum for household
  • High Income: Net-Income = 200% - 300% of estimated living minimum for household
  • Very High Income: Net-Income = 300%+ of estimated living minimum for household

All of this helps to paint a far more accurate, granular picture of how many households are ACTUALLY struggling to live in this country.

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u/Aven_Osten — 10 days ago
▲ 1 r/Rants

Americans don't understand the reality of a government that is "just efficient and competent"; that "just fixes problems". And we really need to have real talk about what type of government we ACTUALLY want.

Solving our problems requires sacrifice. You cannot push this responsibility off to someone else. WE LIVE IN A SOCIETY. If one wants to benefit from it: One needs to contribute.

We don’t live in a dictatorship or authoritarian country. The government is not designed to be proactive, or follow data/evidence of what does and doesn’t work to fix a problem. The electorate has spent the past several decades making sure that the government can only do what is popular; and what determines popularity, is who actually places the most pressure on the government to do something; not what some vague/broad survey says.

And with those actions, comes a reality that most people seem opposed to acknowledging: The more you make government decision-making reliant on democratic input, the more that WE; THE PEOPLE, have to go out to actually participate in the democracy. And when this democratically decided course of action is taken, and it doesn’t help/leads to worsening of the problem(s), WE: THE PEOPLE, are the ones who must own up to the consequences, and are thus responsible for applying pressure on the government to institute/reform policies to correct course. And the more democratic input you have in government decision-making, the slower it’ll inherently be to actually fix any problems that arise; or just do anything in general that needs or just even wants to be done. So: The faster and cheaper you want things to happen, the less and less democratic of a decision-making process you want there to be.

Many people will point to China or Singapore, and start comparing us to them, asking: “WhY dOeSn’T OUR gOvErNmEnT jUsT dO tHiS?!?!?”. It’s because we’re not authoritarian. That’s why. Those countries are authoritarian; Singapore only being democratic on the surface, but not really, when a deeper look is taken. And the people accept this authoritarianism, because it gives the government the ability to take swift action to resolve major issues to help society as a whole prosper; and they’ve done just that over the past several decades.

So if one wants governments here in America to work so fast and efficiently; to “just be competent”; to “just fix problems”, then one must accept the much greater degree of authoritarianism that has to come with that. That doesn’t necessarily mean reduction of human and civil rights established; nor does it even mean not having political parties or elected heads of government. But it does mean you get far less power to oppose government policies from being implemented.

People want a government that "just fixes problems"; that "doesn't only care about what's popular"; that is "just efficient with our tax dollars/resources"? Fine: We can ABSOLUTELY do that. But guess what? When the government is enacting a policy you don't like, you suck it up and deal with it. You let the actual experts and professionals handle the problem, by conducting studies and collecting data on what does and doesn't work. If you have any objections: You better provide equally comprehensive studies and data showing how there's a better way of handling an issue. There is room for ideological variation: That's where the voting for political parties/heads of government/representatives are for. But again: If one TRULY thinks that this is where their involvement in the decision making process should end; if one REALLY thinks that after voting, that all decision making should be made by competent people/groups, then one MUST accept the reality that one will NOT have NEARLY as much power to stop a policy from being implemented, compared to how easy it is to do so today.


So, a question a whole lot of people will have to start answering for themselves, is: How democratic does one actually want the country to be? How involved in the decision making process does one actually want to be? Does one want voting for a political party/representative/head of government to be as much as you have to be involved?

Because, to me, it seems like most people just want voting for a party/representative/head of government to be the most they have to be involved in, when it comes to what decisions the government will make. And that’s fine; if a political party/representative/head of government makes promises to implement XYZ policy(ies), and one just wants them voting for said party to implement their policies, to be (or close to) the maximum they have to be involved in the decision-making process, then fine: We could work towards a government that works like that. But again: That means accepting a much greater degree of authoritarianism; because one can’t vote for certain policies to be implemented, and then do everything possible to stop it from actually happening, when it means that YOU have to actually give up something, for that to happen.

One wants housing to be more affordable? One doesn't get to stop a six or twelve story housing development from being built next to them anymore. One doesn't get to control the aesthetics of the structure anymore. One doesn't get to stop a homeless shelter, or boarding house, or SRO from being built, simply because they don't like it.

One wants healthcare to be more affordable? One doesn't get to oppose any tax increases necessary to ensure universal access. Nor does one get to oppose a health facility being built near them. Nor does one get to be upset about the resulting job losses from cutting out all of the middle-men that makes healthcare needlessly expensive.

One wants transportation to be more affordable? Say hello to extensive mass transit and biking infrastructure and service. If a thoroughfare bans cars to make it into BRT/LRT only, you don't get to oppose it. If eminent domain has to be used to build an underground or elevated rail station, then it'll happen no matter what.

One wants more funding for social services? Say hello to higher taxes to fund it. No more "I can't afford these tax increases!!!". If one cannot afford the taxes and fees to fund something they demand, then they need to stop demanding it; because they clearly can't afford the services they are demanding. Pay up, or shut up.


I personally want what many other people are demanding (whether they're realizing that or not): A competent, efficient government, that focuses on fixing problems when they arise, rather than only doing what is popular to do.

But it seems like I am a part of an exceedingly small group of said people, who are willing to actually accept the reality of getting such a government. And it constantly pisses me off to see people demand this far more technocratic government, but then turn right on around and oppose it when it comes time to ACTUALLY make a technocratic (read: data and evidence driven) decision.

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u/Aven_Osten — 14 days ago

What do you think of "The Bioregional Resilience Framework"?

This proposed framework places emphasis on the ability of certain bioregions (not politically/economically defined regions) to be self-sustaining in the event of global trade breakdown/instability.

It's core metrics for measuring how bioregionally resilient a bioregion is, are:

  • Productive capacity of the land itself

  • Ability to produce the food, water, and energy necessary for healthy modern living, without imports

  • Ability for any individual to build, maintain, and repair their own goods/property, with minimal reliance on external aid/external bureaucratic processes

  • How "human-friendly" the built environment is; how much social integration and interconnectedness there is

  • How much control over its own resources and infrastructure it has

  • How stable institutions are; how much they work in the benefit of the collective; how easy they are to understand and navigate by the general public


Edit: I suppose I should also ask: What policies would you support/implement, in order to achieve such a world (if you believe we should move towards such a world)?

u/Aven_Osten — 15 days ago

What do you think of government Revolving Loan Funds (R.L.F.s)?

This is a dedicated source of capital established by the government, in which the interest from these loans help to make the fund self-sustaining in the long term. They typically target entities who historically have had trouble accessing private capital, in order to help level the playing field in the market/correct for historical injustices.


Additionally (if you wish to answer): What type of R.L.F.(s) do you think should exist? How would it/they work?

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u/Aven_Osten — 19 days ago

My estimates for per-station travel times for buses and rail transit

A while ago, I had went out and calculated the time it would take to travel between one station and another, based on whether it was BRT/LRT, or HRT (Heavy Rail Transit; underground or elevated rail), and distance between stops. These were my results:

Rail

Scenario 1

Top Speed: 60 mph

Distance Between Stops: 3 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 40s

Peak-Speed Duration: 160s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 3 mi.): 225s

Scenario 2

Top Speed: 60 mph

Distance Between Stops: 5 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 40s

Peak-Speed Duration: 280s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 5 mi.): 345s

Scenario 3

Top Speed: 60 mph

Distance Between Stops: 1 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 40s

Peak-Speed Duration: 40s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 1 mi.): 105s

Bus

Scenario 1

Top Speed: 30 mph

Distance Between Stops: 1 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 20s

Peak-Speed Duration: 110s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 1 mi.): 155s

Scenario 2

Top Speed: 30 mph

Distance Between Stops: 0.25 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 20s

Peak-Speed Duration: 20s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 0.25 mi.): 65s

Scenario 3

Top Speed: 30 mph

Distance Between Stops: 0.5 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 20s

Peak-Speed Duration: 50s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 0.5 mi.): 95s

Scenario 3

Top Speed: 30 mph

Distance Between Stops: 3 mi.

Acceleration and Deceleration: 20s

Peak-Speed Duration: 350s

Boarding/Offloading Period: 15s

Door Opening/Closing and Level-Adjusting: 10s

Total Travel Time (Per 3 mi.): 395s


When I went and did all of that, I arrived at what I think would be the optimal mass transit system:

  • Bus Scenario 2 (or LRT) for local/short trips, with Rail Scenario 1 for longer trips (with Rail Scenario 3 being an alternative I'm willing to accept)

  • 5 minute headways during rush-hours

  • 15 minute headways between 6 AM and 10 PM during non-rush hours

  • 30 minute headways between 10 PM and 6 AM

  • Bike parking/Bike-share at each bus/lrt station (at least 10)

  • Each bus/lrt station has at least 5 seats + 2 wheelchair spaces people, and accommodate 10 standing individuals; stations located near/next to hrt stations have at least 4x the capacity

  • Each hrt station has nearby dedicated bike parking (think the Netherlands and their biking garages)

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u/Aven_Osten — 20 days ago

Rough estimate of miles of thoroughfares within the City of Buffalo

I got 323.95 miles to 485.93 miles.


I went to the City of Buffalo Open Data Portal, took the frontage and depth measurements for each property within the city, and then used excel to get the total square footage of it all.

I then subtracted that from the total square footage of land that the City of Buffalo has, and then converted that into a square milage figure, converted a hypothetical 40 foot wide thoroughfare and 60 foot wide thoroughfare over one mile, into a square mile figure, and divided the first figure by the second.

That's how I got to the stated final figure. I used 40 feet as the absolute bare minimum, since nearly every thoroughfare within the city is at least 40 feet wide; and 60 feet was my guesstimate for the "average" thoroughfare width, accounting for the major ones that go up to 200 feet in width.

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u/Aven_Osten — 22 days ago

Do you think constitutions should be held up to review every once in a while?

This was something that was proposed many months back during one of my city's Charter Review Commission meetings. Mandatory public review and vote on changes, every 7 years. The explicitly stated purpose of this, was to ensure that it is continously in line with the needs and wants of residents during such years (we have gone over 20 years with no significant changes).

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u/Aven_Osten — 22 days ago