Mentor Style Advice for New Advisor

I’ve never had a father or a mentor. I’m not suggesting that will come of this, but I would appreciate any and all guidance any of you wish to provide.

Going to give some context and background, then give the ask.

I’m pushing in to mid-life. Not quite there, but closer than not. I grew up poor in middle of nowhere Arkansas. Single mother, I spent most of my 19th year of life homeless.

I never had a father. Never was taught life lessons I feel others my age had. I have always been 3 - 5 years behind my peers in terms of “stage if life”, and I can only conclude it js because i didn’t have guidance to teach me some core life lessons early on. I had to reinvent the wheel and learn them myself.

Fast forward to now. I have a bachelors, my MBA in Finance and Global Strategy, spent 5 years in the US Army as a combat medic, and 6 years in corporate working as a cog to pay off $130,000 in student loans.

Loans paid off, own a nice performing rental, married, and we will be starting a family soon in a major southern US metro.

I’ve spent the last 10 years filling the gap in my knowledge around finance, personal finance, portfolio theory, and securities analysis. And now that we are financially stable, I’m pursuing my dream of becoming an FA.

I’m starting at a full service firm that everyone here will know. You all know better than me that there are pros and cons to each path into the business and building a practice. Suffice it to say that, after interviewed acquaintances at almost every type of firm, including 2 that have their own RIA, I’ve chosen the correct path for me. I’ll just say it isn’t an insurance firm ([insert name here] mutual) but an actual advising firm.

I want break the cycle my whole life has been in and hit the ground running instead of having to figure out the rules of the game for myself. I don’t mind putting in the hard work and the grind. Can’t be as grueling as a combat medic constantly forcing grunts to keep water in their canteens instead of spike energy drink. The grind here is for my family and I’m incredibly motivated.

Here is the ask: Help an incredibly motivated new entrant get ahead of the game.

Early on I understand this is as much sales as it is advising.

Where have you found the most success in client acquisition while building your book, and what “typical” path to client acquisition have you found isn’t worth the effort even if it is commonly recommended?

What tactics did you find were reliable in getting past the “no” and getting further down the conversation to build the trust?

What type of segmentation did you find appropriate across client types, and how did you structure your prospect sourcing, approach, and close for each?

Did you focus purely on one or two segment of clients? Or did you look to diversify your book across lower, mid, and higher asset clients?

What major pitfalls did you experience that slowed you down that I can learn from?

I’m not sitting here trying to be greedy and spend my entire day looking for a few multi-millionaires to service. I’m sure I need to build some more experience and knowledge before I can adequately service those with more sophisticated needs. And I actually want to build a sustainable practice where I can spend some time helping mid and lower end clients. But the practice has to be profitable without killing myself.

Landing a few higher (if not ultra high) net worth clients accelerates the path to profitability and gives me time to curate my book better.

What guidance can you give to someone from my background to source, approach, close, and service higher end clients with great client satisfaction?

I understand clients have to have enough investable assets to support the work involved, but how have you found ways, if any, to also give back to those from my background who could use some level of guidance even if they can’t afford to pay for it?

What do I not know that I don’t know.

Thank you again to anyone who takes the time to read this admittedly long post and pass along some knowledge to a budding, well-intentioned soon-to-be advisor. I cannot tell you via text how much I appreciate any and all guidance here.

God bless.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 6 days ago

Interesting 90s find

A while back I came into a trove of 250+ old broadcast tapes (Type A, B, C, U-matic, etc. from 60s through 90s) and one 16mm film roll. Just had the film digitized and was watching it.

Turns out it is a silent b-roll film from an indie film maker in Atlanta, shooting film of the National Black Arts Festival in 1992.

As I was watching a familiar face caught my eye. Avery Brooks (Played Captain Benjamin Sisko on Star Trek: Deep Space 9).

Really interesting find. Can't wait to work through the tapes I have.

u/BanditoBoom — 21 days ago

Surprising Avery Brooks Find

A while back I came upon a trove of 250+ old broadcast tapes and one 16mm artistic film. Just had it digitized. Coincidentally I'm currently rewatching DS9, and while I was first scrolling through the digital copy of the 16mm film, a familiar face jumped out at me!

30 - 45 seconds of Avery Brooks just hanging out at the National Black Arts Festival in Atlanta in 1992, enjoying the music and the sun.

Didn't know what I'd find. This is amazing for a Trek fan.

This would have been August 3rd - 9th in 1992... and just a few days later on August 18th production started on DS9 on Paramount Stage 4

u/BanditoBoom — 22 days ago

Amazing Sisko Find1

A while back I happened upon a trove of over 250 old broadcast tapes, and one 16mm artistic film.

Just had the film digitized and when watching it a particular face jumped out! Avery Brooks hanging out at the National Black Arts Festival in Atlanta in 1992. 30 - 45 seconds of him just hanging out and enjoying the music.

Fun fact, in 1993 (or maybe 1992 I'm not certain) Avery Brooks took over the planning of the NBAF in Atlanta for a few years.

u/BanditoBoom — 22 days ago

Surprising Sisco Find!

A while back I happened upon a trove of over 250 old broadcast tapes and one 16mm roll of film. B-roll of the National Black Arts Festival in 1992 in Atlanta. Just had it digitized and was watching the film for the first time when.... a familiar face jumped out!

30 - 45 seconds of Avery Brooks just hanging out and enjoying the music.

postimg.cc
u/BanditoBoom — 22 days ago

What Bubble?

It is hard to have a polite debate via text. Everyone reads your words in their head with their own tone and interpret intention differently. Let me be clear that none of this is directed at anyone with malice of intent, rudeness, or hatred. This is intended to help, to educate, to inform. Please take it as such.

"Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom." - Aristotle

TL/DR: The vast majority of the people on Reddit and involved with investing subreddits are well intentioned. They are here to learn, share, and hopefully grow as investors. But they are also a mix of ignorant (the true definition meaning uninformed) about much of the market, lack experience, and are hyper focused on their specific section of the market and headlines, and they allow that to inform their opinion about the market overall and let that impact their psychological well being...which impacts their investing decisions.

Be honest with yourself. If I just described you. If you have only been investing in the bull market since Covid. If you aren't old enough to have had significant money in the markets during the 2000 crash (meaning most of you under the age of...say... 30). If you can't legitimately say that you understand markets, risk assessment, and macroeconomic forces impacting the markets... please read.

Why This Market is Very Healthy and MOST LIKELY NOT in a Bubble:

Just a sampling of SP500 companies and their performance over the past month:

Lam Research: -34%
Intel: -34%
Applied Materials: -33.35%
Micron: -28.5%
Tesla: -25.36%
Caterpillar: -22.21%
Oracle: -19% (-28% on the quarter)
IBM: -18%
AMD: -16%
GE Vernova: -15.5%

Same companies distance from ATH:

Lam Research: -40%
Intel: -39%
Applied Materials: -37%
Micron: -34.6%
Tesla: -38.37%
Caterpillar: -25%
Oracle: -65.36%
IBM: -31.73%
AMD: -22.5%
GE Vernova: -21.7%

And the same patterns repeat across some pretty much all of the biggest name in the index related to (directly or indirectly) to the AI trade and recent run-up.

Just a sampling of SP500 names that have begun making new ATH or made significant moves over the past ~month:

Apple: +20.5%
RTX Corp (Defense): +17.4%
Exxon: +15.17%
Thermo Fisher: +14%
CVX: +13.8%
Mastercard: +5.35%

Total SP500 constituents (including the ones with multiple tickers as yes they do get included to make is SP503 in reality... Alphabet, Fox, and News Corp all have dual tickers. We could exclude them and the math would be almost exactly the same.) that are up vs down past month:

UP: 324 (64.4%)
Down:179 (35.6%)

SPY Distance from ATH: 2.6%

SPY Performance on the Year (YTD): 8.6%

Russell 2000 (IWM) Distance from ATH: 3.3%

Russell 2000 (IWM) Performance on the Year (YTD): 18.9%

Yes this list of tickers with double-digit up moves is much smaller than list with double digit down moves. But that is exactly the point.

The RATIO of stocks with up moves vs the past month is double the stocks with moves down. Even the ones significantly off their all-time highs. And the down stocks are generally the LARGEST constituents on a percentage basis to the weighting of the SP500

When MOST people talk about a "bubble", they are talking about an event that will burst and cause the broader market to pull back. But that is not necessarily true. And it is not true here.

What we are seeing is a broadening out of market performers. This is a rotation. This is profit taking. This is the market doing exactly what it is supposed to be doing: deciding who are the winners and losers, both in short run and long run.

The fact that the giant AI trades are coming back down to earth.... with none of the macro-economic market fundamentals having changed at all... and in fact for MOST of the AI names their individual fundamentals haven't really changed at all... means what we are seeing is NOT irrational exuberance.

It is profit taking mixed with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Does this mean the market CAN'T or WON'T turn down through the end of the year? No. Does this mean there will be ZERO macro-economic shocks that causes a broader correction? No. Does this mean the specific AI names will not pull back even further? No.

But all of this fear mongering, doom and gloom, and blind acceptance that this is a bubble and everything will come crashing down is not supported by the market action, the fundamentals, or the sentiment in the market.

Take a step back, take a breath, and do yourself a favor: Assume for a moment that perhaps you are being over confident in your knowledge and skills... recognize that the talking heads on CNBC and the rest of the "big money" in the game have their own agendas and reasons for saying what they do. And enjoy the ride and the learning.

*Stepping off of soap box hoping everyone takes some small tidbit away from this....while accepting some of you will undoubtedly find nothing but fault in my message*

Have a great day.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 23 days ago

Reel-to-Reel and U-Matic Find

Good day everyone. I’m hoping you can help a desperate man looking to make wife happy and do something with my find.

Last year I won a storage unit auction for some antique furniture. After getting in I discovered that behind it all was anywhere between 200 - 300 magnetic tapes of all varieties. Many of them 3/4” U-Matic. 20 or so Type A / B C reels. And then some beta cam and some audio reels (a couple of which are NPR reels for broadcast from the 70s from some early All Things Considered shows).

There are some relatively historic items. A master recording of Nelson Mandela speaking at the Bethel AME church in Atlanta in the 90s. Video reel of Nina Simone performing in a bar in London. Some others. At least that is what the labels say.

Even some older EIAJ reels.

I purchased various machines, along with what was in the unit. Currently perhaps 15 audio reel to reel decks (some functional some not), 2 - 3 U-Matic decks (1 for sure working), 3 Sony helical scan decks one for sure working.

Plan was to clean and digitize them myself over time. But as you know better than I, some of these very likely need to be baked, cleaned, and professionally done so I have held off.

I’ve been fortunate to find almost all of my machines for next to nothing. That being said I am not swimming in cash to have all of these converted for tens of thousands.

I do need to get some sort of return on my investment here. My wife entertains my hobby as long as I love what I win and don’t cost us additional cash.

My question here is: Anyone in this community know if any professional or extremely skilled hobbyists that would likely make a deal? I can provide all of these machines I have accumulated and use that as credit towards the cost of the conversions?

Not opposed to laying out more cash. Not trying devalue the expertise required to do this. I’m just looking for a better option than mortgaging my house to digitize and do something with them.

Any and all help is appreciated.

I’m in Atlanta if that makes a difference.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 29 days ago

EVgo (EVGO): A Clear Lynch / Weschler (Berkshire) / Munger / Einhorn / Miller Value Play

TL/DR: EVgo represents a leveraged play in the EV / autonomous driving markets. The insanely high switching costs gives this company a moat that rivals that of enterprise SaaS in the 2000s and 2010s. In my opinion, their partnership and buildout strategy is the best in the business. With the new EV market having digested the federal tax rebate cut, states instituting their own incentives to replace it, new affordable EVs coming to market driving primary purchase market, and multiple catalysts driving adoption in the secondary market, the path to robust profitability is likely to occur faster than the market is predicting.

(At the end I write up what I feel each of these value investors would say about the company)

EVGO is an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company.

Everything you need to know:

Operating footprint and hardware:

  1. ~1,200 fast charging stations across 47 states. ~40% of US population lives within 10 miles of an EVGO fast charging station
  2. 60% of stations are ultra-fast 350kW chargers which can add 150 miles of charge in 10-12 minutes, depending on vehicle capability.
  3. Aggressively onboarding Tesla-compatible NACS hardware through 2036 and 2027.

Partnerships:

  1. Major ongoing rollout at high-traffic Kroger locations
  2. Meijer Stores: Major Midwest expansion rolling out ~480 fast-charging stations
  3. Long-standing partnerships with WaWa, Whole Foods, and Simon Property Group
  4. GM: Crown jewel, multi-year partnership to roll out 400 ultra-high-power stalls at premium locations in key states (California, Georgia, Florida, New York, Texas)
  5. 3-way partnership with Pilot / Flying J, and GM to roll out stations throughout critical interstate corridors…infrastructure that is sorely lacking across most of the US, and is a critical factor in EV adoption. More interstate capacity means more people willing to adopt EV as primary vehicle.
  6. Toyota partnership to build out fast charging network, as well as provide 1 year free charging for new bZ4X buyers.
  7. Uber & Lyft: integrated into apps to provide discounted charging for drivers
  8. Spinning up partnerships with autonomous fleet operators (like Waymo) for dedicated charging facilities in dense test-bed markets

Company Facts:

  1. Top line has grown 45% YOY
  2. 17 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth
  3. Gross margin expansion from 14% - 39% from 2021 - 2026
  4. On the cusp of EBITDA profitability and positive FCF (likely to be rerated when this happens)
  5. 1,400 - 1,600 stall expansion essentially already fund through government credit facility and commercial credit facility. De-risks dilution risk. Still likely for more dilution, but not for stall buildout.
  6. As the depreciation for these stalls roll off the financials and capex decreases, we will see the cash flow leverage this business will generate.

Catalysts:

  1. ~1.5 million leased EVs roll of leases from 2026 - 2028, with these vehicles likely to sell into the secondary market.
  2. Secondary market has a significant share of consumers in multi-family housing and / or street parking where home-based charging is not possible
  3. Infrastructure buildout has double impact: more units for charging throughput and also increasing adoptions as consumers trust they can have reliable, fast charging whenever and wherever they need it.
  4. Fleet / Autonomous / B2B customers / partners: High-mileage (meaning significant charging needs) increases stall utility, increasing operating leverage and directly increasing gross margin
  5. In regards to fleet operations, EVGO is capturing significant market share early on.
  6. EXTREMELY HIGH switching costs. Once installed this represents significant moat. I would argue that although this is not an asset-light operation…in the age of AI this is exactly like the rise of high switching costs, asset light, reliable ARR model that drove software to be significant compounders throughout 2000s and 2010s
  7. EV market has bottomed, with cut to federal EV credits having been digested. EV sales have stabilized and begun to up-tic. Factoring in the used EV sales numbers (that just hit the highest quarterly level on record) it is clearly beginning to rise again.
  8. Since the drop of the federal tax credit, many states have implemented their own credit or incentive in one form or another, supporting adoption.
  9. Lower-cost EVs will (in combination with reader infrastructure driving charging trust with customers) will decrease barriers to adoption…along with the growth of the secondary market. Rivian R2, Volvo EX30 hitting the ~$40k market for middle-class / upper-middle class consumers. Chevy Bolt has been brought back, with some models hitting below <$30k. Redesigned Nissan Leaf is in $30k - $35k range and is..for lack of a better term…actually a little sexy.

Other entry level or middle class models:

Kia EV3
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Hyundai Kona Electric
Chevy Equinox EV

There are likely more my research didn’t turn up.

Point is…the more entry level models / used models purchased….the more likely is that person lives in housing that doesn’t afford the luxury of installing fast-charging at home…which means EVgo’s high-density strategy, along with key partnerships, will provide high utilization and high operating leverage.

Path to Profitability:

While the company is constantly innovating stall manufacturing process to lower COGS, the key here is kWh/day:

(Throughout per stall) * (margin per kWh) = (stall gross profit)

Q4 2025 showed average daily throughput per stall stood at 292 kWh / day

Projections and operational leverage models show that average daily throughput of roughly ~330 - 350 kWh / day would move EVgo easily into profitability, with any efficiencies in manufacturing cost reduction / labor cost reduction directly hitting gross margin expansion. With throughput for installed units increasing drastically, and operational efficiencies growing, I feel this path will happen sooner than market predicts.

Peter Lynch: Fast-Grower with more than sufficient capitalization in an overlooked / misunderstood industry where the hype has died and scaled unit economics provides clear operational leverage.

Weschler (Berkshire): Trailing earnings are irrelevant. EVgo is locking in premium real estate in key local markets that would take competitors double the CapEx and 5 years to try and replicate. i.e. clear moat.

Einhorn: Market is shorting this stock / undervaluing this stock because it is pricing in a permanent decline in new, luxury EV sales. Structural reality is a boom and growing boom in used EV sales, with a significant portion of those sales going to customers in large metros with limited or no ability to charge at home.

Miller: Value isn't "low P/E". It is a massive disconnect between a company's present enterprise value and its future discounted cashflows.~$600 million dollar market cap is mispricing a company with a CLEAR path to $500 million in EBITDA by 2030 and significant operating leverage for an asset-heavy company.

Munger: It is an intelligent speculation if buying it for the infrastructure and the cost it would take to rebuild it today, but it isn't a high-flying tech stock. Used EV sales growth + urban renters + fleet drivers / autonomous buildout = clear, structural "lollapalooza" effect... less psychologically and more structurally, with multiple trends and catalysts all moving in the same direction to a logical conclusion: more throughput. This also represents clear characteristics of a "tollbooth" effect. The state of US energy infrastructure means utilities and municipalities only have so many multi-megawatt pipelines they can allow to come out of the ground. EVgo locking in these pipelines in very dense metropolitan areas creates a moat that is very difficult for a Johnny-come-lately to replicate.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 2 months ago

EVgo (EVGO): A Clear Lynch / Weschler (Berkshire) / Munger / Einhorn / Miller Value Play

TL/DR: EVgo represents a leveraged play in the EV / autonomous driving markets. The insanely high switching costs gives this company a moat that rivals that of enterprise SaaS in the 2000s and 2010s. In my opinion, their partnership and buildout strategy is the best in the business. With the new EV market having digested the federal tax rebate cut, states instituting their own incentives to replace it, new affordable EVs coming to market driving primary purchase market, and multiple catalysts driving adoption in the secondary market, the path to robust profitability is likely to occur faster than the market is predicting.

(At the end I write up what I feel each of these value investors would say about the company)

EVGO is an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company.

Everything you need to know:

Operating footprint and hardware:

  1. ~1,200 fast charging stations across 47 states. ~40% of US population lives within 10 miles of an EVGO fast charging station
  2. 60% of stations are ultra-fast 350kW chargers which can add 150 miles of charge in 10-12 minutes, depending on vehicle capability.
  3. Aggressively onboarding Tesla-compatible NACS hardware through 2036 and 2027.

Partnerships:

  1. Major ongoing rollout at high-traffic Kroger locations
  2. Meijer Stores: Major Midwest expansion rolling out ~480 fast-charging stations
  3. Long-standing partnerships with WaWa, Whole Foods, and Simon Property Group
  4. GM: Crown jewel, multi-year partnership to roll out 400 ultra-high-power stalls at premium locations in key states (California, Georgia, Florida, New York, Texas)
  5. 3-way partnership with Pilot / Flying J, and GM to roll out stations throughout critical interstate corridors…infrastructure that is sorely lacking across most of the US, and is a critical factor in EV adoption. More interstate capacity means more people willing to adopt EV as primary vehicle.
  6. Toyota partnership to build out fast charging network, as well as provide 1 year free charging for new bZ4X buyers.
  7. Uber & Lyft: integrated into apps to provide discounted charging for drivers
  8. Spinning up partnerships with autonomous fleet operators (like Waymo) for dedicated charging facilities in dense test-bed markets

Company Facts:

  1. Top line has grown 45% YOY
  2. 17 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth
  3. Gross margin expansion from 14% - 39% from 2021 - 2026
  4. On the cusp of EBITDA profitability and positive FCF (likely to be rerated when this happens)
  5. 1,400 - 1,600 stall expansion essentially already fund through government credit facility and commercial credit facility. De-risks dilution risk. Still likely for more dilution, but not for stall buildout.
  6. As the depreciation for these stalls roll off the financials and capex decreases, we will see the cash flow leverage this business will generate.

Catalysts:

  1. ~1.5 million leased EVs roll of leases from 2026 - 2028, with these vehicles likely to sell into the secondary market.
  2. Secondary market has a significant share of consumers in multi-family housing and / or street parking where home-based charging is not possible
  3. Infrastructure buildout has double impact: more units for charging throughput and also increasing adoptions as consumers trust they can have reliable, fast charging whenever and wherever they need it.
  4. Fleet / Autonomous / B2B customers / partners: High-mileage (meaning significant charging needs) increases stall utility, increasing operating leverage and directly increasing gross margin
  5. In regards to fleet operations, EVGO is capturing significant market share early on.
  6. EXTREMELY HIGH switching costs. Once installed this represents significant moat. I would argue that although this is not an asset-light operation…in the age of AI this is exactly like the rise of high switching costs, asset light, reliable ARR model that drove software to be significant compounders throughout 2000s and 2010s
  7. EV market has bottomed, with cut to federal EV credits having been digested. EV sales have stabilized and begun to up-tic. Factoring in the used EV sales numbers (that just hit the highest quarterly level on record) it is clearly beginning to rise again.
  8. Since the drop of the federal tax credit, many states have implemented their own credit or incentive in one form or another, supporting adoption.
  9. Lower-cost EVs will (in combination with reader infrastructure driving charging trust with customers) will decrease barriers to adoption…along with the growth of the secondary market. Rivian R2, Volvo EX30 hitting the ~$40k market for middle-class / upper-middle class consumers. Chevy Bolt has been brought back, with some models hitting below <$30k. Redesigned Nissan Leaf is in $30k - $35k range and is..for lack of a better term…actually a little sexy.

Other entry level or middle class models:

Kia EV3
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Hyundai Kona Electric
Chevy Equinox EV

There are likely more my research didn’t turn up.

Point is…the more entry level models / used models purchased….the more likely is that person lives in housing that doesn’t afford the luxury of installing fast-charging at home…which means EVgo’s high-density strategy, along with key partnerships, will provide high utilization and high operating leverage.

Path to Profitability:

While the company is constantly innovating stall manufacturing process to lower COGS, the key here is kWh/day:

(Throughout per stall) * (margin per kWh) = (stall gross profit)

Q4 2025 showed average daily throughput per stall stood at 292 kWh / day

Projections and operational leverage models show that average daily throughput of roughly ~330 - 350 kWh / day would move EVgo easily into profitability, with any efficiencies in manufacturing cost reduction / labor cost reduction directly hitting gross margin expansion. With throughput for installed units increasing drastically, and operational efficiencies growing, I feel this path will happen sooner than market predicts.

Peter Lynch: Fast-Grower with more than sufficient capitalization in an overlooked / misunderstood industry where the hype has died and scaled unit economics provides clear operational leverage.

Weschler (Berkshire): Trailing earnings are irrelevant. EVgo is locking in premium real estate in key local markets that would take competitors double the CapEx and 5 years to try and replicate. i.e. clear moat.

Einhorn: Market is shorting this stock / undervaluing this stock because it is pricing in a permanent decline in new, luxury EV sales. Structural reality is a boom and growing boom in used EV sales, with a significant portion of those sales going to customers in large metros with limited or no ability to charge at home.

Miller: Value isn't "low P/E". It is a massive disconnect between a company's present enterprise value and its future discounted cashflows.~$600 million dollar market cap is mispricing a company with a CLEAR path to $500 million in EBITDA by 2030 and significant operating leverage for an asset-heavy company.

Munger: It is an intelligent speculation if buying it for the infrastructure and the cost it would take to rebuild it today, but it isn't a high-flying tech stock. Used EV sales growth + urban renters + fleet drivers / autonomous buildout = clear, structural "lollapalooza" effect... less psychologically and more structurally, with multiple trends and catalysts all moving in the same direction to a logical conclusion: more throughput. This also represents clear characteristics of a "tollbooth" effect. The state of US energy infrastructure means utilities and municipalities only have so many multi-megawatt pipelines they can allow to come out of the ground. EVgo locking in these pipelines in very dense metropolitan areas creates a moat that is very difficult for a Johnny-come-lately to replicate.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 2 months ago
▲ 0 r/stocks

EVgo (EVGO): A Clear Lynch / Weschler (Berkshire) / Munger / Einhorn / Miller Value Play

TL/DR: EVgo represents a leveraged play in the EV / autonomous driving markets. The insanely high switching costs gives this company a moat that rivals that of enterprise SaaS in the 2000s and 2010s. In my opinion, their partnership and buildout strategy is the best in the business. With the new EV market having digested the federal tax rebate cut, states instituting their own incentives to replace it, new affordable EVs coming to market driving primary purchase market, and multiple catalysts driving adoption in the secondary market, the path to robust profitability is likely to occur faster than the market is predicting.

(At the end I write up what I feel each of these value investors would say about the company)

EVGO is an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company.

Everything you need to know:

Operating footprint and hardware:

  1. ~1,200 fast charging stations across 47 states. ~40% of US population lives within 10 miles of an EVGO fast charging station
  2. 60% of stations are ultra-fast 350kW chargers which can add 150 miles of charge in 10-12 minutes, depending on vehicle capability.
  3. Aggressively onboarding Tesla-compatible NACS hardware through 2036 and 2027.

Partnerships:

  1. Major ongoing rollout at high-traffic Kroger locations
  2. Meijer Stores: Major Midwest expansion rolling out ~480 fast-charging stations
  3. Long-standing partnerships with WaWa, Whole Foods, and Simon Property Group
  4. GM: Crown jewel, multi-year partnership to roll out 400 ultra-high-power stalls at premium locations in key states (California, Georgia, Florida, New York, Texas)
  5. 3-way partnership with Pilot / Flying J, and GM to roll out stations throughout critical interstate corridors…infrastructure that is sorely lacking across most of the US, and is a critical factor in EV adoption. More interstate capacity means more people willing to adopt EV as primary vehicle.
  6. Toyota partnership to build out fast charging network, as well as provide 1 year free charging for new bZ4X buyers.
  7. Uber & Lyft: integrated into apps to provide discounted charging for drivers
  8. Spinning up partnerships with autonomous fleet operators (like Waymo) for dedicated charging facilities in dense test-bed markets

Company Facts:

  1. Top line has grown 45% YOY
  2. 17 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth
  3. Gross margin expansion from 14% - 39% from 2021 - 2026
  4. On the cusp of EBITDA profitability and positive FCF (likely to be rerated when this happens)
  5. 1,400 - 1,600 stall expansion essentially already fund through government credit facility and commercial credit facility. De-risks dilution risk. Still likely for more dilution, but not for stall buildout.
  6. As the depreciation for these stalls roll off the financials and capex decreases, we will see the cash flow leverage this business will generate.

Catalysts:

  1. ~1.5 million leased EVs roll of leases from 2026 - 2028, with these vehicles likely to sell into the secondary market.
  2. Secondary market has a significant share of consumers in multi-family housing and / or street parking where home-based charging is not possible
  3. Infrastructure buildout has double impact: more units for charging throughput and also increasing adoptions as consumers trust they can have reliable, fast charging whenever and wherever they need it.
  4. Fleet / Autonomous / B2B customers / partners: High-mileage (meaning significant charging needs) increases stall utility, increasing operating leverage and directly increasing gross margin
  5. In regards to fleet operations, EVGO is capturing significant market share early on.
  6. EXTREMELY HIGH switching costs. Once installed this represents significant moat. I would argue that although this is not an asset-light operation…in the age of AI this is exactly like the rise of high switching costs, asset light, reliable ARR model that drove software to be significant compounders throughout 2000s and 2010s
  7. EV market has bottomed, with cut to federal EV credits having been digested. EV sales have stabilized and begun to up-tic. Factoring in the used EV sales numbers (that just hit the highest quarterly level on record) it is clearly beginning to rise again.
  8. Since the drop of the federal tax credit, many states have implemented their own credit or incentive in one form or another, supporting adoption.
  9. Lower-cost EVs will (in combination with reader infrastructure driving charging trust with customers) will decrease barriers to adoption…along with the growth of the secondary market. Rivian R2, Volvo EX30 hitting the ~$40k market for middle-class / upper-middle class consumers. Chevy Bolt has been brought back, with some models hitting below <$30k. Redesigned Nissan Leaf is in $30k - $35k range and is..for lack of a better term…actually a little sexy.

Other entry level or middle class models:

Kia EV3
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Hyundai Kona Electric
Chevy Equinox EV

There are likely more my research didn’t turn up.

Point is…the more entry level models / used models purchased….the more likely is that person lives in housing that doesn’t afford the luxury of installing fast-charging at home…which means EVgo’s high-density strategy, along with key partnerships, will provide high utilization and high operating leverage.

Path to Profitability:

While the company is constantly innovating stall manufacturing process to lower COGS, the key here is kWh/day:

(Throughout per stall) * (margin per kWh) = (stall gross profit)

Q4 2025 showed average daily throughput per stall stood at 292 kWh / day

Projections and operational leverage models show that average daily throughput of roughly ~330 - 350 kWh / day would move EVgo easily into profitability, with any efficiencies in manufacturing cost reduction / labor cost reduction directly hitting gross margin expansion. With throughput for installed units increasing drastically, and operational efficiencies growing, I feel this path will happen sooner than market predicts.

Peter Lynch: Fast-Grower with more than sufficient capitalization in an overlooked / misunderstood industry where the hype has died and scaled unit economics provides clear operational leverage.

Weschler (Berkshire): Trailing earnings are irrelevant. EVgo is locking in premium real estate in key local markets that would take competitors double the CapEx and 5 years to try and replicate. i.e. clear moat.

Einhorn: Market is shorting this stock / undervaluing this stock because it is pricing in a permanent decline in new, luxury EV sales. Structural reality is a boom and growing boom in used EV sales, with a significant portion of those sales going to customers in large metros with limited or no ability to charge at home.

Miller: Value isn't "low P/E". It is a massive disconnect between a company's present enterprise value and its future discounted cashflows.~$600 million dollar market cap is mispricing a company with a CLEAR path to $500 million in EBITDA by 2030 and significant operating leverage for an asset-heavy company.

Munger: It is an intelligent speculation if buying it for the infrastructure and the cost it would take to rebuild it today, but it isn't a high-flying tech stock. Used EV sales growth + urban renters + fleet drivers / autonomous buildout = clear, structural "lollapalooza" effect... less psychologically and more structurally, with multiple trends and catalysts all moving in the same direction to a logical conclusion: more throughput. This also represents clear characteristics of a "tollbooth" effect. The state of US energy infrastructure means utilities and municipalities only have so many multi-megawatt pipelines they can allow to come out of the ground. EVgo locking in these pipelines in very dense metropolitan areas creates a moat that is very difficult for a Johnny-come-lately to replicate.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 2 months ago

EVgo (EVGO): A Clear Lynch / Weschler (Berkshire) / Munger / Einhorn / Miller Value Play

TL/DR: EVgo represents a leveraged play in the EV / autonomous driving markets. The insanely high switching costs gives this company a moat that rivals that of enterprise SaaS in the 2000s and 2010s. In my opinion, their partnership and buildout strategy is the best in the business. With the new EV market having digested the federal tax rebate cut, states instituting their own incentives to replace it, new affordable EVs coming to market driving primary purchase market, and multiple catalysts driving adoption in the secondary market, the path to robust profitability is likely to occur faster than the market is predicting.

(At the end I write up what I feel each of these value investors would say about the company)

EVGO is an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company.

Everything you need to know:

Operating footprint and hardware:

  1. ~1,200 fast charging stations across 47 states. ~40% of US population lives within 10 miles of an EVGO fast charging station
  2. 60% of stations are ultra-fast 350kW chargers which can add 150 miles of charge in 10-12 minutes, depending on vehicle capability.
  3. Aggressively onboarding Tesla-compatible NACS hardware through 2036 and 2027.

Partnerships:

  1. Major ongoing rollout at high-traffic Kroger locations
  2. Meijer Stores: Major Midwest expansion rolling out ~480 fast-charging stations
  3. Long-standing partnerships with WaWa, Whole Foods, and Simon Property Group
  4. GM: Crown jewel, multi-year partnership to roll out 400 ultra-high-power stalls at premium locations in key states (California, Georgia, Florida, New York, Texas)
  5. 3-way partnership with Pilot / Flying J, and GM to roll out stations throughout critical interstate corridors…infrastructure that is sorely lacking across most of the US, and is a critical factor in EV adoption. More interstate capacity means more people willing to adopt EV as primary vehicle.
  6. Toyota partnership to build out fast charging network, as well as provide 1 year free charging for new bZ4X buyers.
  7. Uber & Lyft: integrated into apps to provide discounted charging for drivers
  8. Spinning up partnerships with autonomous fleet operators (like Waymo) for dedicated charging facilities in dense test-bed markets

Company Facts:

  1. Top line has grown 45% YOY
  2. 17 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth
  3. Gross margin expansion from 14% - 39% from 2021 - 2026
  4. On the cusp of EBITDA profitability and positive FCF (likely to be rerated when this happens)
  5. 1,400 - 1,600 stall expansion essentially already fund through government credit facility and commercial credit facility. De-risks dilution risk. Still likely for more dilution, but not for stall buildout.
  6. As the depreciation for these stalls roll off the financials and capex decreases, we will see the cash flow leverage this business will generate.

Catalysts:

  1. ~1.5 million leased EVs roll of leases from 2026 - 2028, with these vehicles likely to sell into the secondary market.
  2. Secondary market has a significant share of consumers in multi-family housing and / or street parking where home-based charging is not possible
  3. Infrastructure buildout has double impact: more units for charging throughput and also increasing adoptions as consumers trust they can have reliable, fast charging whenever and wherever they need it.
  4. Fleet / Autonomous / B2B customers / partners: High-mileage (meaning significant charging needs) increases stall utility, increasing operating leverage and directly increasing gross margin
  5. In regards to fleet operations, EVGO is capturing significant market share early on.
  6. EXTREMELY HIGH switching costs. Once installed this represents significant moat. I would argue that although this is not an asset-light operation…in the age of AI this is exactly like the rise of high switching costs, asset light, reliable ARR model that drove software to be significant compounders throughout 2000s and 2010s
  7. EV market has bottomed, with cut to federal EV credits having been digested. EV sales have stabilized and begun to up-tic. Factoring in the used EV sales numbers (that just hit the highest quarterly level on record) it is clearly beginning to rise again.
  8. Since the drop of the federal tax credit, many states have implemented their own credit or incentive in one form or another, supporting adoption.
  9. Lower-cost EVs will (in combination with reader infrastructure driving charging trust with customers) will decrease barriers to adoption…along with the growth of the secondary market. Rivian R2, Volvo EX30 hitting the ~$40k market for middle-class / upper-middle class consumers. Chevy Bolt has been brought back, with some models hitting below <$30k. Redesigned Nissan Leaf is in $30k - $35k range and is..for lack of a better term…actually a little sexy.

Other entry level or middle class models:

Kia EV3
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Hyundai Kona Electric
Chevy Equinox EV

There are likely more my research didn’t turn up.

Point is…the more entry level models / used models purchased….the more likely is that person lives in housing that doesn’t afford the luxury of installing fast-charging at home…which means EVgo’s high-density strategy, along with key partnerships, will provide high utilization and high operating leverage.

Path to Profitability:

While the company is constantly innovating stall manufacturing process to lower COGS, the key here is kWh/day:

(Throughout per stall) * (margin per kWh) = (stall gross profit)

Q4 2025 showed average daily throughput per stall stood at 292 kWh / day

Projections and operational leverage models show that average daily throughput of roughly ~330 - 350 kWh / day would move EVgo easily into profitability, with any efficiencies in manufacturing cost reduction / labor cost reduction directly hitting gross margin expansion. With throughput for installed units increasing drastically, and operational efficiencies growing, I feel this path will happen sooner than market predicts.

Peter Lynch: Fast-Grower with more than sufficient capitalization in an overlooked / misunderstood industry where the hype has died and scaled unit economics provides clear operational leverage.

Weschler (Berkshire): Trailing earnings are irrelevant. EVgo is locking in premium real estate in key local markets that would take competitors double the CapEx and 5 years to try and replicate. i.e. clear moat.

Einhorn: Market is shorting this stock / undervaluing this stock because it is pricing in a permanent decline in new, luxury EV sales. Structural reality is a boom and growing boom in used EV sales, with a significant portion of those sales going to customers in large metros with limited or no ability to charge at home.

Miller: Value isn't "low P/E". It is a massive disconnect between a company's present enterprise value and its future discounted cashflows.~$600 million dollar market cap is mispricing a company with a CLEAR path to $500 million in EBITDA by 2030 and significant operating leverage for an asset-heavy company.

Munger: It is an intelligent speculation if buying it for the infrastructure and the cost it would take to rebuild it today, but it isn't a high-flying tech stock. Used EV sales growth + urban renters + fleet drivers / autonomous buildout = clear, structural "lollapalooza" effect... less psychologically and more structurally, with multiple trends and catalysts all moving in the same direction to a logical conclusion: more throughput. This also represents clear characteristics of a "tollbooth" effect. The state of US energy infrastructure means utilities and municipalities only have so many multi-megawatt pipelines they can allow to come out of the ground. EVgo locking in these pipelines in very dense metropolitan areas creates a moat that is very difficult for a Johnny-come-lately to replicate.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 2 months ago
▲ 2 r/TheRaceTo100K+1 crossposts

EVGO multibagger potential / Lynch style value play

EVGO is an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company.

TL/DR: EVgo represents a leveraged play in the EV / autonomous driving markets. The insanely high switching costs gives this company a moat that rivals that of enterprise SaaS in the 2000s and 2010s. In my opinion, their partnership and buildout strategy is the best in the business. With the new EV market having digested the federal tax rebate cut, states instituting their own incentives to replace it, new affordable EVs coming to market driving primary purchase market, and multiple catalysts driving adoption in the secondary market, the path to robust profitability is likely to occur faster than the market is predicting.

Everything you need to know:

Operating footprint and hardware:

  1. ~1,200 fast charging stations across 47 states. ~40% of US population lives within 10 miles of an EVGO fast charging station

  2. >60% of stations are ultra-fast 350kW chargers which can add 150 miles of charge in 10-12 minutes, depending on vehicle capability.

  3. Aggressively onboarding Tesla-compatible NACS hardware through 2036 and 2027.

Partnerships:

  1. Major ongoing rollout at high-traffic Kroger locations

  2. Meijer Stores: Major Midwest expansion rolling out ~480 fast-charging stations

  3. Long-standing partnerships with WaWa, Whole Foods, and Simon Property Group

  4. GM: Crown jewel, multi-year partnership to roll out 400 ultra-high-power stalls at premium locations in key states (California, Georgia, Florida, New York, Texas)

  5. 3-way partnership with Pilot / Flying J, and GM to roll out stations throughout critical interstate corridors…infrastructure that is sorely lacking across most of the US, and is a critical factor in EV adoption. More interstate capacity means more people willing to adopt EV as primary vehicle.

  6. Toyota partnership to build out fast charging network, as well as provide 1 year free charging for new bZ4X buyers.

  7. Uber & Lyft: integrated into apps to provide discounted charging for drivers

  8. Spinning up partnerships with autonomous fleet operators (like Waymo) for dedicated charging facilities in dense test-bed markets

Company Facts:

  1. Top line has grown 45% YOY
  2. 17 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth
  3. Gross margin expansion from 14% - 39% from 2021 - 2026
  4. On the cusp of EBITDA profitability and positive FCF (likely to be rerated when this happens)
  5. 1,400 - 1,600 stall expansion essentially already fund through government credit facility and commercial credit facility. De-risks dilution risk. Still likely for more dilution, but not for stall buildout.
  6. As the depreciation for these stalls roll off the financials and capex decreases, we will see the cash flow leverage this business will generate.

Catalysts:

  1. ~1.5 million leased EVs roll of leases from 2026 - 2028, with these vehicles likely to sell into the secondary market.

  2. Secondary market has a significant share of consumers in multi-family housing and / or street parking where home-based charging is not possible

  3. Infrastructure buildout has double impact: more units for charging throughput and also increasing adoptions as consumers trust they can have reliable, fast charging whenever and wherever they need it.

  4. Fleet / Autonomous / B2B customers / partners: High-mileage (meaning significant charging needs) increases stall utility, increasing operating leverage and directly increasing gross margin

  5. In regards to fleet operations, EVGO is capturing significant market share early on.

  6. EXTREMELY HIGH switching costs. Once installed this represents significant moat. I would argue that although this is not an asset-light operation…in the age of AI this is exactly like the rise of high switching costs, asset light, reliable ARR model that drove software to be significant compounders throughout 2000s and 2010s

  7. EV market has bottomed, with cut to federal EV credits having been digested. EV sales have stabilized and begun to up-tic. Factoring in the used EV sales numbers (that just hit the highest quarterly level on record) it is clearly beginning to rise again.

  8. Since the drop of the federal tax credit, many states have implemented their own credit or incentive in one form or another, supporting adoption.

  9. Lower-cost EVs will (in combination with reader infrastructure driving charging trust with customers) will decrease barriers to adoption…along with the growth of the secondary market. Rivian R2, Volvo EX30 hitting the ~$40k market for middle-class / upper-middle class consumers. Chevy Bolt has been brought back, with some models hitting below <$30k. Redesigned Nissan Leaf is in $30k - $35k range and is..for lack of a better term…actually a little sexy.

Other entry level or middle class models:

Kia EV3
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Hyundai Kona Electric
Chevy Equinox EV

There are likely more my research didn’t turn up.

Point is…the more entry level models / used models purchased….the more likely is that person lives in housing that doesn’t afford the luxury of installing fast-charging at home…which means EVgo’s high-density strategy, along with key partnerships, will provide high utilization and high operating leverage.

Path to Profitability:

While the company is constantly innovating stall manufacturing process to lower COGS, the key here is kWh/day:

(Throughout per stall) * (margin per kWh) = (stall gross profit)

Q4 2025 showed average daily throughput per stall stood at 292 kWh / day

Projections and operational leverage models show that average daily throughput of roughly ~330 - 350 kWh / day would move EVgo easily into profitability, with any efficiencies in manufacturing cost reduction / labor cost reduction directly hitting gross margin expansion. With throughput for installed units increasing drastically, and operational efficiencies growing, I feel this path will happen sooner than market predicts.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 2 months ago

ex-US Asymmetric Value (KYIV)

This isn’t a full analysis, because I’m busy today. If people want a full analysis that I typically do, let me know.

If you read any of my posts, you know I don’t spam posts. I try to only post here when I find true value.

You also would know that I take a somewhat different definition of “value investing”, and I truly believe that “vie is in the high of the beholder.”

When I was in the US Army, I spent time in Ukraine helping train the Ukrainian military.

For about a year now I’ve been invested in Kyivstar (KYIV).

Currently listening to the earnings call.

This isn’t a true analysis. Like I said I can post more detail later if you really want.

Just putting it out there that I personally feel this is an excellent ex-US value play that could be a true multi-bagger in the next 2 - 5 years.

Not advice.

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 3 months ago
▲ 12 r/ValueInvesting+1 crossposts

A couple of days ago I submitted a post claiming that we must rethink what we view as "Value Investing", making the case that while it is fair to look back at the great value investors in history... modern markets (and modern tech) require that we reassess how value is found and not be so strict on metric / ratio definitions of "value"

Original Post

Below I make the case for Atari SA (yes, THAT Atari). My hopes are that you take the post in the spirit it is intended: An example of one type of modern value investing that combines Monish Pabrai "heads I win, tails I don't lose too much" and Peter Lynch "beaten-down turnaround stock no-one is looking at, but with real catalysts and clear path to profitability".

TL;DR

Atari is a ~€50M French micro-cap that owns one of the most recognizable brands on Earth and trades like a permanently broken legacy publisher. After a decade of value destruction under prior management — crypto tokens, Dubai hotels, a flopped console, and a social casino pivot — control passed in 2021 to Wade Rosen, a retro-gaming entrepreneur whose family has run a ~$3.2B private operating company in Minnesota since 1946. Through his holding co Irata LLC, Rosen has personally bankrolled the entire turnaround: the original tender offer, ~98% of a €30M convertible bond, and successive shareholder loans now being converted into equity.

The strategy is incredibly simple: own retro IP, own the engines that emulate it, own the studios that ship it. Three proprietary engines covering every console era from 1977 to ~2006 (PS2). 400+ owned games and franchises. Revenue +63% in FY25 and +38% in H1 FY26. Operating cash flow flipped positive last year. The bond converts in July 2026 and kills most of the interest drag. Stock trades at roughly 1.0–1.3x EV/sales for a brand that is plausibly worth more than the entire current market cap on its own.

The risks are real and I won't soft-pedal them: dilution has been brutal, key-man risk is total, the company doesn't yet self-fund without Rosen's wallet, and net income won't be positive for a while. But the asymmetry is unusually clean for a $58M-market-cap public equity. I don't usually post pitches for such plays, but the setup is rare enough to be worth chewing on.

Sourcing throughout.

Why this is mispriced in the first place

The single most important fact about Atari SA: it lists on Euronext Growth Paris under a French ticker (ALATA), has almost no institutional research coverage, terrible US OTC liquidity (PONGF), and just executed a 1-for-200 reverse split two days ago that made the float look optically tinier. Every structural feature of the listing pushes capital away from it. None of those features have anything to do with the underlying business.

Anchor question: how much is the Atari brand alone worth? Sega, Nintendo, and Capcom are the comp set for "heritage gaming IP your grandparents recognize." All three trade like the platform IP holders they are. Atari belongs in that conversation on brand recognition. It does not belong in that conversation on financial metrics. The gap is the trade.

What Rosen has actually built

Most people who glance at the ticker miss this. Atari isn't a brand-licensing operation anymore. It's quietly become the only vertically integrated retro gaming company in the world.

Studio Acquired Specialty Engine
Nightdive Studios Mar 2023 (~$10M) Polygon-3D / FPS remasters (System Shock, Quake II, Turok) KEX
Digital Eclipse Nov 2023 (up to $20M) 8/16-bit emulation, "playable documentaries" (Atari 50, Tetris Forever, MK Legacy Kollection) Bakesale
Implicit Conversions Apr 2026 32-bit / PS1 / PS2 emulation, PS3 in dev Syrup
Thunderful Group Aug 2025 (~€4.5M for 81.7%) Swedish publisher, distressed turnaround n/a

The Implicit Conversions deal closed two weeks ago and is the move that ties everything together. From Rosen's announcement: "Implicit Conversions' ability to work with 32-bit era games using their proprietary Syrup engine complements our existing expertise with 8 and 16-bit era games. Alongside the Bakesale Engine and the Kex Engine, we now have an enviable suite of proprietary tools..."

No other company has assembled engines spanning every console era from 1977 (Atari 2600) to ~2006 (PS2). That's the reason Ubisoft essentially handed Atari five IPs in August (deal price unknown) — Cold Fear, I Am Alive, Child of Eden, Grow Home, Grow Up — for what was almost certainly a token amount. Atari can do something with them. Ubisoft demonstrably wasn't going to. WB does the same with Mortal Kombat. There's a real licensing-as-a-service business taking shape on top of the catalog.

The IP base is now 400+ games and franchises: the original Atari arcade canon (Asteroids, Centipede, Missile Command, Pong, Breakout, Yars), the Hasbro Interactive / Infogrames stack including RollerCoaster Tycoon (10-year license extension signed 2022), Stern Electronics arcade IP (Berzerk, Frenzy), the entire Intellivision back catalog and trademark (May 2024), Transport Tycoon, Surgeon Simulator, Totally Reliable Delivery Service, the five Ubisoft titles, and a stack of operational licensing deals on third-party IP (Mortal Kombat with WB, Tetris).

The owner-operator angle

This is the part that should grab anyone who weights insider alignment heavily. Wade Rosen isn't a CEO. Through Irata LLC he is functionally an owner-operator of a public company.

Capital deployed by Irata into Atari, in sequence:

  • 2020 — bought initial stake from prior CEO (Frédéric Chesnais, who has since exited entirely)
  • 2022 — €56.7M tender offer takes Irata to majority position
  • 2023 — subscribed to ~97.6% of a new €30M senior unsecured convertible bond issue (6.50% coupon, matures 7/31/2026, conversion at €0.15)
  • 2024–2025 — multiple shareholder loans at 10% to fund operations and acquisitions
  • August 2025 — €13.9M of those loans repaid in shares; 97.7M new shares issued to Irata at €0.145

After the August conversion, Irata holds ~40% of equity and ~38% of votes on a non-diluted basis. Roughly €10M of additional shareholder loans still outstanding. The €30M convertible (~98% Irata-owned) matures in July 2026. At conversion, fully-diluted Irata stake comfortably crosses 50%.

That's north of €60M of personal/family-related capital committed to a €50M-market-cap company. By any measure of insider conviction, this is extreme.

The "family-related" piece matters. Wade is a director of Rosen's Diversified — the Minnesota-based private holding company his family has owned since 1946. RDI did roughly $3.2B in revenue in 2024, owns American Foods Group (one of the largest US beef processors), Scientific Life Solutions (took Collagen Solutions PLC private in 2020), a logistics arm, an agribusiness, and several others. Forbes has historically ranked the family among the wealthiest in Minnesota. He's not the heir flouncing into something he doesn't understand. He spent the prior five years building Ziggurat Interactive (140+ retro licenses, original-developer relationships, exact same playbook) at smaller scale before stepping into the Atari job. Atari is the brand-anchored, public-market version of the thing he already proved he can execute.

Implication for minorities is double-edged. You have a controlling shareholder willing to write personal checks rather than dilute outsiders via punitive secondary offerings — but every check eventually shows up as dilution at his preferred conversion price. You're along for the ride. You're not driving.

Financials, honestly framed

First, top-line growth is real, but the base year (FY23) was a deliberate scorched-earth cleanup that took revenue down 32%.

FY (ending March) Revenue YoY
FY22 €14.9M
FY23 €10.1M −32% (intentional cleanup)
FY24 €20.6M +103%
FY25 €33.6M +63%
FY26E ~€44–55M (~$50M organic / ~$60M w/ Thunderful) +40–60%

Second, FY26 guidance was cut once in March 2026 (organic was originally guided ~$60M, now ~$50M, with Thunderful consolidation taking the total back near the original target). Not a thesis-killer, but I'm not going to pretend it didn't happen.

Third, cash flow is positive but trending weaker:

  • FY25 operating cash flow: +€8.8M (real inflection)
  • H1 FY26 operating cash flow: +€1.8M (still positive, weaker run-rate)
  • FY26 guided to positive operating CF for the full year

Net loss is the messy line. FY25 was −€12.5M, widened even as operating loss narrowed sharply (−€12.9M → −€3.9M). The widening is mostly non-cash items related to legacy IP runoff and acquisition amortization. H1 FY26 net loss of −€6.4M was specifically described by management as "impacted by additional debt contracted throughout the year." That's interest expense — and that's what the July 2026 bond conversion eliminates.

Cleanest framing: FY26 is guided to positive operating income and positive operating cash flow. Net income breakeven is contingent on the convertible converting in July 2026 and removing ~€2M/year of interest drag. The thesis can survive the next two prints being ugly on GAAP net income. It cannot survive operating cash flow going negative.

Valuation

Metric Value
Market cap (post 1-for-200 reverse split, 5/5/26) ~€50–60M / ~$57–68M
Shares outstanding ~2.796M post-split
TTM revenue ~$42.8M
FY26E revenue ~$60M (incl. Thunderful)
EV / TTM sales ~1.0–1.3x
Convertible bond ~€30M at 6.50%, Irata owns ~98%, matures 7/31/2026
Other Irata shareholder loans ~€10M outstanding
Owned IP 400+ games and franchises
Proprietary engines Bakesale, KEX, Syrup

Frontier Developments, Team17, and Devolver Digital trade in the 1.5–4x EV/sales range with materially weaker brand assets. Sega, Capcom, and Nintendo trade much higher on every metric. A re-rating to 2x FY27 sales is multi-bagger math, and that doesn't require Atari to become a great business — it just has to stop being valued like a permanently broken French micro-cap.

Off-balance-sheet stuff that doesn't show up in the multiple: the Atari brand itself, the IP catalog (mostly carried near zero from legacy impairments), the three engines (carried at minimal book value), 81.7% of Thunderful at €10M preliminary goodwill on a €4.5M purchase, and the Atari Hotel Phoenix licensing deal (third-party-funded ~$124M project, Atari just collects royalties).

Bear case (the ones I take seriously)

I'd rather state these up front than wait for someone to dunk in the comments.

"Dilution has been brutal and isn't done." True. Pre-split share count went from ~250M in early 2023 to 559M before the reverse split. The convertible matures in July, Atari can't repay in cash, so Irata converts at €0.15 and minorities take more dilution. That's already in the price if you size correctly. If the operating business isn't actually working, dilution will eat any multiple expansion.

"The company doesn't self-fund." Today, true. Multiple shareholder loan tranches from Irata since 2024, and management has stated ~$8M more in additional financing is needed. The whole bull case rests on FY26/FY27 being the year operating cash flow covers operations without Rosen's checkbook. FY25 +€8.8M was a real data point. H1 FY26 +€1.8M is positive but softer. The next two prints are the proof.

"Key-man risk is total." Yes. If Rosen steps away, gets sick, or just loses interest, there's no Plan B. This is a single-name bet on him as a capital allocator. Size accordingly.

"Net income is still negative and will be." Yep. Anyone confusing operating income with net income is going to be disappointed. Management's actual guidance is positive operating income. Net income breakeven is a separate, later milestone.

"It's a French micro-cap moving to Luxembourg with brutal liquidity." Yes. You cannot move size in this name. Spreads on PONGF on the pinks are atrocious. If you're going to buy this, buy ALATA in Paris if your broker supports it.

Bear's strongest line: "It's a perpetual cash-burning IP holding company with a charismatic CEO who only survives because he keeps backing up the truck with his own money. Once he stops, the music stops."

The cleanest counter is operating cash flow turning positive in FY25, "iceberg" of non-cash losses from legacy IP write-downs and acquisition amortization, and the bond conversion in July 2026 wiping out most of the interest expense. If both hold, the self-funding question gets answered structurally rather than rhetorically. If they don't hold, the bears win and I lose money. Watch the next two prints.

Catalysts — next 12-18 months

  1. July 31, 2026 — €30M convertible matures, Irata converts, capital structure cleans up, ~€2M/year of interest evaporates.
  2. Summer 2026 — FY26 full-year results. First proof of the "positive operating income" guidance.
  3. By July 2026 — Luxembourg redomicile completes. (Side note: redomicile is structured partly so Irata crossing 50% via conversion doesn't trigger a mandatory tender offer under French law. Important detail, not nefarious, but worth knowing.)
  4. Late 2026 / FY27 — Thunderful integration completes; first full year of consolidated contribution.
  5. Continuous releases — Mortal Kombat: Legacy Kollection just shipped, Intellivision Sprint launching late 2026, RollerCoaster Tycoon Classic+ on Apple Arcade, Missile Command on Netflix Game Night cloud, hardware (Atari 2600+ PAC-MAN Edition, GameStation Go), widely acclaimed Bubsy 4D launching soon.
  6. 2027ish — first PS2-era remasters using Syrup ship. That's the year you can actually grade the "remaster-as-a-service" thesis with real data.
  7. Wildcard — major IP movie/TV deal. Rosen has explicitly cited the LEGO Movie playbook as the template. (Asteroids or Missile Command movie when?)

How I'm sizing it

Treating it as venture-style exposure inside a public-market wrapper. ~1.5% of portfolio, willing to take it to zero, multi-year hold. Buying ALATA on Paris where the spreads are tolerable rather than PONGF on the pinks. Not adding below FY26 results unless operating cash flow stays positive — that's my line.

My general philosophy is base hits over home runs, and this is firmly in the "small position, asymmetric, leave it alone, check it quarterly" bucket. Not a "back up the truck" name. If you need a stock to act like a stock, this will frustrate you constantly.

Not investment advice. Verify everything yourself. The IR page is at atari-investisseurs.fr and I'd recommend reading the H1 FY26 release end-to-end before doing anything. The Implicit Conversions deal context is on the studio's own blog post which is more candid than a typical press release.

Curious where the bears think I'm wrong, or where the rest of r/ValueInvesting just can't get behind seeing the value here. The "dilution-can't-stop" line is the one I've found hardest to fully dismiss, but with such a small float and such a large asymmetric up-side, I personally do not view the dilution as an issue... I view it as an Owner-Operator becoming more financially linked to my investment.

Position: long ALATA, ~1.5% of portfolio, established over the past ~year

u/BanditoBoom — 4 months ago

I love this sub. I get a lot of value out of reading other’s thoughts, and from time to time I have made my own posts. I try to make my comments to others be direct while helpful, and although tone can not be conveyed through text, I believe I should clearly state that never and I mean never do my comments care any tone or meaning except that of spirited discussion (well…we are all human so occasionally it may get heated. But that is the exception…and it happens to all of us)

That being said:

The title of this post says it all: Value is in the eye of the beholder. What do I mean by that?

Everyone one of us humans view the world through our own lenses, which are sculpted and polished by our genetic traits (parts of our personalities passed on by our parents), and our experiences (what we personally have lived through and what we have learned from those experiences).

Some may quote Buffett, some may quote Munger, some may cite Benjamin Graham. Browne, Greenblatt, Pabrai, Miller, Marks, Klarman… all of them are generally labeled as “value investors” by most of us (with Miller somewhat debated).

But what about Lynch or Ackman?

Ignoring performance and focusing on philosophies:

Lynch was the inventor of PEG (or at least popularized it). Labeled as the “Growth at a reasonable price” investor. Does the fact that he includes growth in his determination detract from the worm he does in his fundamental analysis?

Ackman is extremely “value” focused on his analysis, but is much more activist in his style, which Buffett was not. Does that take away from his “value” approach?

We need to stop being so STUCK in what we think of as “value investing”.

Value is in the eye of the beholder!

What do all of these investors have in common? They utilized frameworks, philosophies, and mental models to structure their investing processes in such a way that they determined gave them an edge. That’s it. All of them had the exact same over-arching goals.

“Value” = discount to intrinsic value
“Growth” = an input intrinsic value

“Value” ≠ Low P/E
“Growth” ≠ High P/E

The Graham / Buffett / Munger cohort found an edge based on asymmetric data access and understanding. Before computers, instant stock quotes, and broad dissemination of financial results, they could do the work to identify companies trading at a discount (or on par) to intrinsic value (or tangible book value) and profit.

In an age with instant access to almost any financial data / ratio / analysis of any public company you could think of… this information arbitrage can not simply be based on ratios and growth rates. Market dynamics have changed. Players have changed. Rules of the game have changed. Information access has changed.

This doesn’t mean you can’t adopt a more purist “net-net” style Graham investing strategy…. It just means the opportunities are fewer and further between, and often much farther down the market cap ladder where fewer eyes are looking, and where more stocks are not yet profitable.

Your investing style must match your temperament, your time horizon, your goals, and your portfolio size.

To that end, let’s discuss what is actually meant by “value”:

ALL investing, in my humble opinion, is value investing. You are paying a price today for a stream of future cash flows.

To that end, YOU must make a personal determination, based on your analysis and experience, if the current price is a fair price for future cash flows, too expensive, or even a discount to future cash flows.

Hence I would argue a good definition of “Value Investing” would be:

“Investing in companies where the market is mispricing the future.”

(This is where I would argue Peter Lynch is the father of modern value investing: Retaining the fundamental and strategic analysis, but also focusing on his circle of competency so that he can more accurately estimate future cash flows).

So, in closing, I’d like to say that I appreciate this group…. But we all have to get out of our habit of criticizing a post or idea because it doesn’t meet OUR OWN PERSONAL definition of “value”. If someone knows more about the semiconductor industry than you, they could EASILY make an argument for Nvidia being a “value” play….while you wouldn’t touch it with someone else’s brokerage account.

But that also means that our analyses must address the diverse concerns of the broader community, recognizing that different people take different approaches to identifying value, or else stop being surprised when your Palantir post gets a lot of blowback.

Later today I will be posting my analysis of a company that the vast majority of this group will not view as traditional value. That’s fine. I will make the case that a combination of quantifiable and non-quantifiable factors make it a clear value play in hopes to persuade some of you purists to see the bigger picture.

Thank you for your time and consideration. I hope have not offended anyone, and I am always open to feedback and criticism. (Except criticism about this being a long post… I am who I am)

reddit.com
u/BanditoBoom — 4 months ago