▲ 14 r/actuary

My Emotional Hedging (Risk Management) experiment. Spoiler: England v Mexico.

I'm an England fan who picked Mexico in my World Cup bracket to emotionally hedge. In what should have been one of the most exciting games I've seen for months, maybe years, making me happy until England's next game, I felt and feel dead. I didn't care about the result or action. Yellow cards, red cards, penalties, goals. Sport is for excitement and escapism. Even if Mexico had won, I prefer feeling alive with disappointment to not caring. I want to scream at the screen when Mexico get a dodgy penalty on VAR or when Quansah gets a red. I want the ecstasy of Anthony Gordon getting a penalty from being quicker of thought and feet than anyone else. The sheer agony and anticipation of 10-man England surviving at 2-1 then 3-2.

So I doubt I'll be emotionally hedging such events going forward. I have a dull, predictable, safe, life I'm very thankful for, and don't need to hedge the excitement out of it.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 10 hours ago
▲ 28 r/actuary

Off-topic: risk managing happiness

I'm English (heritage) FCAS. I will be happy if England beat Mexico in the World Cup. We have a work pool. So I chose Mexico to win to risk manage my happiness. Like in investing (or insurance!) where you try to minimize volatility. Has anyone heard of such a concept? Do you think its valid? Am I a traitor?

(I'm putting in this subreddit because I respect your brains. r/happiness doesn't allow questions, only scientific studies, and many subreddit just have idiots replying.)

EDIT: It's called "Emotional Hedging" and has a wiki entry here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotional_hedge . Thanks to u/deadpoolvswolverine

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 20 hours ago
▲ 307 r/Fire

You've retired early; what are you doing with your time?

I'm mid-forties with enough money to retire. But when I speak to newly retired people, they're doing stuff I have no interest in (e.g. Substitute teaching; Starbucks barista), to relieve boredom. I'd rather work! What are you doing/planning to do after early retirement?

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 3 days ago
▲ 20 r/actuary

ELI5: Don't understand these statistics

I'm an FCAS but don't understand how these percentiles can all be true for the same person (from a kid's medical check-up):

Height: 79th

Weight: 81st

BMI: 67th.

Since BMI is a function of weight/height, I thought someone in the same percentile for both would be roughly 50th percentile, so someone with the height/weight above would be low 50's.

Maybe it's because there is a big grouping around the middle, so the variance between 81 and 79 is the same as 67 and 50?

I'm assuming a bell curve -ish. I realize kids can't be 0 for height or weight but could be double the average.

ELI5

EDIT 20260629: Based on Answers below, I think my assumption that height is bell shaped is reasonable, but the assumption that weight (and therefore BMI) is bell shaped is probably wrong.

BMI = Weight / Height^2.

Also I just noticed "Weight" and "Height" don't rhyme, even though the last five letters are "eight" in each case. Google gives an etymology here: etymology - Pronunciation of the words 'height' and 'weight' - English Language & Usage Stack Exchange

u/Due_Permit8027 — 7 days ago
▲ 10 r/actuary

YA divorce rate question

I googled, and all I found was a survey from 3 years ago where Actuaries still had the lowest divorce rate. Does "Actuary" in the divorce rate statistics include analysts, or only credentialed Actuaries?

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 7 days ago

Why didn't Charlie "enjoy" Rose more

IMHO Rose was really pretty. If no-one else was staying over, why didn't Charlie "enjoy" her more. She was there and "ready-to-go" constantly.

BTW I love this thread. First time posting.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 10 days ago

Anything interesting in the Atherton-Stokes podcast? I don't want to spend an hour if it's just blocking out

I'm from Lancashire but find Atherton boring. I don't want to listen for an hour if Stokes speaks but says nothing. Can I get a "too long, didn't listen"?

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 12 days ago

Next England Captain?

If Stokes retires as captain and Root doesn't want it permanently, who would you pick? Whole articles/podcasts discuss Stokes as captain without discussing a replacement.

Brook's the obvious choice but had his own nightclub issues. And he's never been a 4 or 5 day captain to my knowledge so I don't know how good he would be tactically.

Ducky has captained 4 or 5 day, but also had a nightclub issue.

So, if not Stokes/Root, who do you think it should be? Who do you think it will be?

EDIT: Reddit's AI notes have the following. I think my job's safe:

Dom Bess emerges as the leading candidate for England captain despite concerns about maturity and burnout, while Alex Hales and Ben Foakes are considered alternatives with leadership experience but some drawbacks. Opinions diverge on Tom Bethell's readiness and Joe Root's captaincy effectiveness, highlighting a lack of clear successors beyond Bess.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 13 days ago

Is there a pleasant way to play Brass: Birmingham online? Are there any plans for Brass: Pittsburg online?

I googled, and it seems there wasn't; the app was unreliable and it was taken off BGA. But those posts were old, and I'm looking for an update.

Edit: It's in BGA alpha and you need to be invited.

I misspelled the city, but can't edit the title.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 20 days ago

How do you use Claude?

I'm getting Claude soon. How do P&C Actuaries use it? Googling/Youtubing didn't help much. I'm FCAS with no support staff at an MGA. FP&A contains the best "excel monkey" I've ever met and he says it's great if you're very specific about what you need. Have you used it for tech reviews? How was that? Can it build actuarial analyses like an analyst? Anything more you've had success with?

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 23 days ago

Does the Dire Wolf video game implementation have Marine Worlds? Any Plans to Add it?

I'd like to be able to play Marine Worlds against an A.I. I get interrupted constantly so playing against a human, even 30 min online, isn't a good option.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 26 days ago

Actuary needs a good, completed World Cup "bracket" for work pool to make actuaries look good to company. Does anyone know of a good bracket based on team strength / weather / home advantage? Preferably with good statistical documentation. I don't want some content creator looking for clicks.

If we win, I want to say we predict accurately for a living.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 1 month ago

Has UK always been regarded as a country? IIRC I was taught (in England) that England/Scotland/Wales/N.Ireland were countries and UK was an Empire

But Wikipedia and some high-brow BBC quiz show (pointless) both regarded it as a country.

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 1 month ago

Sapperstein calls the police, anonymously reports he heard a shooting on the Stugots and something go overboard, what happens?

I think the police would come, check the occupants for guns (and find them with illegals in their ankle holsters), put them in jail (especially if they were on parole), and hold the Stugots for examination as a crime scene (now they can place illegal guns there). It would take a long time to determine there was nothing dropped into the lake (EDIT: Ocean). Even if the police eventually don't find anything and the police track it was Sapperstein, he can just say it was dark. Sapperstein gets everything he wants. Even better, Sapp could phone from Tony's house (if he still has a way of getting in). What am I missing?

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 1 month ago

Solskjær was a successful ManUtd manager

A lot of the knocks I hear about Carrick is that he'll be like Solskjær. But Solskjær was successful. There have been nine managers since SAF left, including some very big names like Mourinho, but they didn't much better. I know some they won cups etc. Solskjær had a 54% win rate; everyone else has been <60% (apart from Carricks short tenure).

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u/Due_Permit8027 — 2 months ago