World wide money circulation, UBI and why Social Democracy no longer work.
▲ 6 r/KiwiPolitics+1 crossposts

World wide money circulation, UBI and why Social Democracy no longer work.

Disclaimer: This is AI generated image and it sort of illustrated my point.

I post world wide money circulation of USD. This circulation work so well because it is a part of more fundamental money circulation which was created after Brenton Wood die and financial sector was unleashed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/KiwiPolitics/comments/1w2ybmy/why_we_should_look_into_slowly_decoupling_from/

Now we look on this fundamental circulation. It included all financial markers and real economy. Why it exist? Real economy does not create money. So in order to function amount of money circulating in it, payed in wages and good and services need to stay constant or even increase with real economy grow. And that mean if excess profits go to financial sector, equal amount has to be borrow by real economy. The same true about interest on existing debt. That why financial capital and debt always grow. Individual can pay of it debt, workers as a class can not, unless by forced redistribution.

Idea of UBI, even old come back to public focus after 2008 crush. Crush happen because real economy no longer was able to service it debt by borrowing more. There was a suggestion of "helicopter money". In 2008 USA was easy able to do that. Instead of QE just create money and give to USA population, this solve problem. Interest would be paid and borrowing will resume. Instead financial sector was bail out by QE.

That is economy idea of UBI, give population money equal as minimum interest it is pay and as maximum interest + excess profit. That will balance economy with out touching financial sector. USA was able to do that when USD circulation was secure. This money will be suck into financial sector and will not effect real economy. Just balance it. Any other country can not do it. Any other country need to tax rich one way or an other in order to finance UBI. Taxing workers would not do the trick, as money need to go to workers in order to balance economy.

And here we come to "why Social Democracy stop working". It is simple, goverment no longer tax rich as it used to. Case study is the last attempt to use Keynesian economy ideas to balance economy by a big country, France under https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran%C3%A7ois_Mitterrand goverment. It attempt to realize it Socialist plan and tax Capital. Capital declare strike and run to Germany. There was no Capital controls, which existed under Brenton Wood in order to make it work. So, Socialist Keynesian plan was abandoned.

And here I will give recognition to TOP. They identified the only way governments still have power to tax rich - Land Tax. Rich can not take land away, yet. Problem is - It would not be enough. Taxing other wealth may work specifically for NZ in current political situation, as rich may want to continue to stay in NZ. We probably safest place on earth from War, especially Nuclear War. But do not underestimate rich greed, tax need to be small. May be TOP would be able to give UBI equal to amount interest real economy pay and this keep NZ economy stable, but I would not bet on it.

u/GeologistOld1265 — 4 days ago

What opposition parties need to keep public attention on.

Instead of following a news cycle and cover pools which distract electorate from actual country problems, convert politics into a sport game, you need to keep news cycle around performance of coalition goverment. It is really easy, as performance is bad by there own target and election promises.

Ignore pools, point out reality non stop. There is no metric by which coalition goverment perform well. Point out how destruction that did to all labor project damage NZ. To destroy is easy, to build something is much harder.

rnz.co.nz
u/GeologistOld1265 — 1 month ago
▲ 23 r/KiwiPolitics+1 crossposts

Why we should look into slowly decoupling from USA financial system.

Disclaimer: This is AI generated images and I can barely make it do what I want.

In order to understand how USD system work we need to look how current system was created.

Picture 1: Petrodollar. In 1973 USA made an agreement with oil producing countries that in exchange of protection they trade oil on USD and invest profits into USA financial market. That created a first constant intake of USD into USA. But that was not enough. USA was creating USD to pay for wars and trade deficit, but not enough USD were moving back to USA.

So, we had https://www.markethistories.com/en/the-volcker-shock-breaking-inflation-at-any-cost-1979-1982 The Volcker Shock.

Picture 2: FEDS raise interest rates to 20%, creating demand for USD, Capital start to flow into USA seeking passive profit. This created conditions for insane profits from USA financial market. Average grow of USA stock market between 1985 to 2025 is 12%. Almost no productive investment can beat that, except monopoly profit or extremely cheap workforce. So, this Capital flow become self sustaining. Capital start to flow into USA financial market, creating self sustaining baubles. The worse world economy performs - the bigger grow. For example, in Covid time stock markets grow at 20-25%.

And now Oil shock slowing down world economy push even more profits into USA financial markets. But now there is an opposite processes. Petrodollar mostly stooped and even reverse. The more sanction USA put, the less USA financial market attraction. I do not claim USD is not used in trade, it does, even more then before. But flow of Capital into USA financial market begin to have problems. it is shrinking geographically, currently balanced by inability of Capital to invest into real economy. But eventually this process will be broken.

NZ deeply invested into USA financial market. Kiwi saver, many funds and individuals. It is very attractive, but deny our economy access to Capital. Who will invest into NZ when passive income is soo big?

I want all parties and individuals to consider this.

u/GeologistOld1265 — 1 month ago

Can I plant spring onions and lettuce in a garden? Christchurch

Thanks for advice I got there I realize I was over watering Spring Onions and now can grow them no problem.

I am pretty sure spring Onions can survive frost, can lettuce? I need space inside for other crops.

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 2 months ago

ACT promises tax-free crypto gains after a year

Government of fiscal responsibility, more tax loopholes.

<<The ACT party wants to allow people to make tax-free profits from cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, as long as they hold onto it for more than a year.

It would also make it easier to use crypto for small purchases by creating a tax exemption for such low-value transactions.

Inland Revenue says 355,000 New Zealanders use crypto, with $36 billion worth of transactions recorded.

Under the current rules, investors have to calculate tax on profits every time they sell or swap their assets.>>

rnz.co.nz
u/GeologistOld1265 — 2 months ago

Economic policies of Jacinda Ardern goverment or why it is no longer possible to reform Capitalism.

I would not talk about other mistakes her goverment did, but idea of there economic policies were actually sound. Realization was simple impossible.

Idea of her policies were: We will raise minimum wage to living wage, this increase income of people. At the same time, in order for this increase of income not to go to increase of rent payment, grow housing bauble we build 100 000 houses and put Capital gain Tax, even on family home. That are pretty basic, mainstream western left policies. Nothing radical about them.

She was able to pass Minimum wage increase. She has to give up Capital gain tax even before election, but it is one of component necessary for policies to succeed. It put limit on how much you can borrow, as Capital gain tax will make it harder to pay debt back if you selling the house. In short, it would force banks to demand higher equity, higher deposit. And again, she try or was able to pass only market mechanism to build more houses, which were a complete failure Only toward the end of second term they finally found a winning formulae - load debt on housing corporation and cover it with new equity created by new houses. It was too later and National destroy this.

As result, very little houses have been build, this no downward pressure on housing market and rent were put. So, increase in minimum wage had only one positive effect - a consumer inflation. Yes, it is positive for economy as a whole, as real inflation - simultaneous raise of prices and wages, make debt easier to pay off. Inflation destroy both, debt and assets. Problem is, in absence of any downward pressure on housing market, increase in minimum wage continue housing bauble and rent increase. Was absorbed by land lords.

So, we can see that implementing only half of an idea resulted in almost nothing. But even this, pretty mainstream western leftist policies created a huge propaganda reaction. A leader of very small country at the end of the earth was villifyed in world press. USA press was full of negative articles and podcasts. She was called a "Communist", which she was definitely not.

So, TOP, this will be your fate, only much faster. Idea of ToP economics were created as result of 2008 Crush. 1929 Crush created Keynesian economy, big part of which were actually adopted by at lest half of ruling class. Your ideas, created by 2008 crush were accepted only by a slim minority of a ruling class.

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 2 months ago

How to help a person.

I am not sure where to ask, it is a mixture of legal and social services question.

It cut story very short, we are 6 unrelated people renting a house, mostly old and disabled.. One lived house and payed rent a like 5 years ago, then left. We replace her, but about 2 years ago her replacement left and she move back in. At that time, our head tenant was sick with cancer and did not had strength to do anything about her. She just move in and never pay rent. About 3 month ago head tenant die, we signed a new agreements, tell he to go away. Give her trespass note. She is still here. Problem is, I believe she is clinically insane. She does not have any income as she refuse to do Work and income stuff. She lived and steal our food.

Yesterday I was cutting brunches at from of her room and she was protesting, weekly. She had a door slightly open and smell coming out was like some one die there. I feel she is just lie there and slowly dying.

I am not a head tenant, but I wander what are our options? Call police about trespassing? She need care, some social services, but when we look the only one we found demand for her to initiate the call. She would not.

She is not sane, she constantly tell me to go where I come from, why depending on our good will for years. Is there any social services we can call or let Police to handle that? I feel even jail cell will be an improvement for her, at least they will clean her up.

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 2 months ago

Should I split my empire by creating vassals?

Year is 2412 and that mean later game crisis soon will come. I am a leader of federation, which control most of galaxy. I have 4 vassals.

Currently My empire has 85% mauls to grow, high pop planets grow as result at +3, that with cloning ascension and max vats. My Capital sector pretty big, 13 planets, some new not filled yet.

So, I am thinking about creating other sectors as vassals. So, question, they all all become -100 loyalty. Will they rebel or will I have any other problems?

What kind of vassals I need to create? I have Khan throne, so can make santrapies.

A positive is, My pop will grow again. I will be able to expand vertically, a lot of space for habitats and converting planets to Arcologies. My new vassals pop will grow and provide migrants.

My federation will get a lot of Naval Capacity.

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 3 months ago
▲ 19 r/oil

How oil prices manipulated and prognosis for a future. (Opinion)

How USA sell oil reserves? That is important question in order to understand oil market.

https://www.energy.gov/hgeo/opr/spr-sales-and-exchanges

Pay carefully attention to exchange provision. This provision basically make cost of oil for refineries lowest possible in a future, user "borrow" oil to return some time in a future.

It is my understanding that is a main mechanism how Trump realize USA oil reserves. Refineries can get oil with promise to put it back when Price of oil fall. That what keep oil market down, as so long as there are some reserves prices can be manipulated to the bottom, as demand never hit market.

Additional factors that lower oil prices in this war.

Oil glut before war. Both Russia and Iran had a lot of oil in sea, waiting to be unloaded before start of the war. Ukrainian campaign of attack on Russian refineries greatly increase from the start of Iranian war. I do not believe it is incidental. Reduction of Russian refinery capacity push more oil on the market.

How long this can continue? Oil in sea is gone. There are about 2 weeks of USA civilian strategic reserves left. Civilian, what do I mean? There is a portion of reserves allocated for military. But Trump can realize them too, he just need to sign an additional order. After that, strategic reserves will last until November, after midterm election.

So, I believe Oil exchange will let Trump to keep oil prices down until midterm elections, unless something cardinally change.

u/GeologistOld1265 — 3 months ago

What are consequences of inviting 10 new members in federation?

I just got into federation last big civilization which has 4 vassals. I have 4 vassals and one more member has 2.

If I pass "vassals can join" I think all of them will become a part of federation. Federation is max level. I have full control. Will anything negative happen?

I can drastically increase federation fleet cap for end game crisis this way, but I wary if it start loosing levels or anything even worse happen.

Currently federation has 4 members.

So, should I keep vassals out or let them in?

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 3 months ago

N8 Potting mix in Christchurch.

I usually was using it with no problems, good, cheap, everything grow. Except last year. Last year with exception of Tomatoes nothing was growing in it. Seeds may sprout and then not really grow.

Tomatoes tend to be very resilient. Anyone else experience that? Anyone know reason? I really do not want to buy more expensive one this year, but last year experience was very disappointing.

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 4 months ago

Some times I receive a notification for a reply that is insulting, nasty or even threatening. When I press on it, reply is not there appear and then notification disappear. I even can not report that, some one insult me and gone with out trace. How that is possible? What can I do?

reddit.com
u/GeologistOld1265 — 4 months ago

Khan Now have about 2 million + strong fleets, destroy most of galaxy.

Khan has about 2+ million strong fleets and destroy most of galaxy. I am not complain, but I found it strange. I was not able to find Khan fleet, but there are sooo many of them..

I was doing Federated egalitarian run with plan to rule galaxy with federated fleet. But when Khan drop with 78K Khan fleet and 45K support I had only 20K federation fleet +10K my own so I surrender. Now about 50 years later this is a situation. Horde space is not visible, I just show it biggest fleet concentration.

Game settings were, Grand Admiral, crisis strength 1.

Update, in 2362 Khan finally die and split on two parts. I do not know yet what happen to fleets.

u/GeologistOld1265 — 5 months ago