A smart MC as a criminal mastermind or detective. The antagonist is one of the 2 roles. I have already read/watched my home hero, ron kamonohashi and the manga of sherlock vs moriarty
For now, I'd say it's pretty boring and bland. In the sense that I'm not attached to the characters/plot whatsoever. But I was told to watch at least 10 episodes because this is a very slow anime. And I don't mind doing it. Also because of another thing, the strategies there seem well-written. Like for example, Reinhard's tactic.
If you forgot here's the basic situation
A=Alliance's fleets ; R=Reinhard's fleet. A has 2x more soldiers than R
Since the different fleets are far away from each other (probably to encircle Reinhard's fleet and allow no escape), Reinhard's using it to his advantage, he'll destroy individually each fleet starting from 4th. He also cut the Alliance's means of communication (we didn't explain how). But the why seems interesting to me. Reinhard knows that the Alliance's military system is reigned by veterans. Those veterans have:
Those factors make them very stubborn. By cutting the communication from each fleet, he's forcing these guys in a dilemma: either they don't trust in the 4th fleet and go help them. Or, they believe in them.
These veterans choose the 1st option, despite Yang and Cap's advices. Which Reinhard engineered by cutting the means of communication. If he hadn't done that, there could've been a chance that they won't fill their uncertainty with blind truth but logic.
Example: 2nd or 6th says to 4th that Reinhard is coming to destroy 4th. 4th could ask for allies. Or, Yang/Cap could convince 4th to ask for help.
But even in these cases, I don't think Yang/Cap could get the possibility to talk with 4th, because of the commanders' sturbborness. Therefore, it's possible that even with the possibility of communications, Reinhard's plan would still work.
Unless 2nd or 6th fleet are actually closer than the 4th fleet to Reinhard. So, it would be easier for them to predict Reinhar's movements and alert 4th. If that's the case, then 4th would just come to 2nd or 6th fleet and merge. Or, they could divide in two.
Which is nice. I don't feel the need to talk about Yang's counter (caused by plot convenience which is fine imo). However, this is only if the 4th fleet is very far from everyone else. Which I don't think the episode specified (or maybe I didn't see it).
There's just a thing annoying me rn. The fights really are hard to understand. It's probably a visualization problem or because it's VERY old.
Episode 3 was kinda better than 1 and 2. I'd say it's because of the plot not being so hard to understand like the first 2.
In what aspect will the anime change or stay the same in the next episodes ? After reading my review of this episode, do you think watching it is a waste of time or should I invest ?
I'm currently at S2 EP17 of SLF.
It's pretty good to be honest.
What I especially like is how the author actually looks like a real gamer. He even brought up ways to "farm" or kill mobs with fall damages (crystal scorpions). Aside from the characters being pretty likeable. What hit me the most in SLF are the strategies (not the ones like crystal scorpsions etc..), but more like how players like Pencilgon are basically "con artists".
They find logical holes or hints in storytelling and just then think of an optimal strategy. The same applies for Sunraku too. Both of them are pretty smart. But also VERY different in their playstyles, which is very refreshing. ON one hand you have the pattern recognition monster (sunraku) who's capable of:
And on the other you have the long thinker Pencilgon who's going to see through a "flaw" of the game and create a big risky strategy.
But what makes it even better is that the strategies in SLF are very "condition-oriented", hence why I'm saying the author's a real gamer. Most of their strategies require conditions that need either perfect execution, or huge amount of ressources. And most of the times (since they're fighting bosses like Wetheremon), it requires both.
Eg. Like how Rei's ultimate requires incantations, different types of hit and a massive debuff after the hit in order to unleash the strongest attack ever in SLF (if I remember correctly).
Other thing to mention, I like how most of the strategies and deductions aren't hidden or just spawns out of nowhere. The author's a sort of game designer.
And each boss feels like a mini-riddle that the readers can solve. They sometimes can't give a strategy as efficient as the players due to a lack of intel (storytelling obliges). But they still can engage with the fight aswell.
For example, during the Wetheremon combat, it was told that Wetheremon just can't die, ontop of other hints given in early episodes. You could've deduced by yourself that wetheremon isn't a robot, but a zombie. Which is the foundation of Pencilgon's entire strategy to beat phase 3 wetheremon's OP attack. By throwing holy water, perfect for zombie-types of ennemies, it weakens wetheremon. Therefore, Wetheremon wasn't invincible anymore. And, he couldn't unleash his OP one shot attack. There are many MANY other strategies like that.
But what scares me the most if I keep going is the plot convenient item trope being stretched out. Or the author drowned by how vast his items, rules and ennemies are. Which will either create:
These were the 2 main reasons that came up as I wrote this. And I genuinely hope the writing still stays as strong as it felt during the first 2 seasons (or maybe it was already like that at first, and I just didn't see it as I was binging it ? Tbh, it could be nice if you'd tell me about it if that's the case.)
This is what made me truly love this series and watch 42 episodes in 2 DAYS ;-;. I'm thinking of reading the manga afterwards, because I won't have much more time left to watch S3 in 2027 (college etc...). Furthermore, I hate watching animes like SLF weekly. The cliffhangers are either trash or peak. Which will make the amount of time spent thinking about the different scenarios truly annoying. Although this is the first time in a long time I got hooked by an anime so easily.
If so, how would you direct it ?
Uncertainty.
Uncertainty is like a fox.
A fox lying around in a deserted jungle. It sometiimes doesn't make sense. Or actually never.
Like the first two lines you've just read, you're uncertain of what I mean. And this, is what makes Nippon Sangoku fascinating.
It uses this simple factor: information, to create the unknown and force the ennemy into diving deep into its flagrant bottomless hole.
Kaku used that uncertainty, that information, to create a perfect win strategy. It took me a long time to make this theory, and it's quite complex.
So, let's get aboard on the boat of control.
The boat controlled by Aoteru Misumi and Yamato's Strategist: Kaku.
However, before delving deep into this, we need to have a plan:
1. How did Kaku create that Uncertainty
3.Kaku's strategem : Certainty Anchor Stratagem
4. The Real Meaning of "Lie in Firewood and Persuade the Heavens": Aoteru's Truthful lie.
5. Aoteru's Sherlock-like deduction
Let's gooo!
I. The creation of Uncertainty: Kaku's plan.
This is what I think is Kaku's foundation of his plan:
Manage to make Seii win while saving Naganime and his troops with no reinforcements.
Why ?
Because right now, Kaku has two ennemies: Taira and Seii.
Both want his demise. However, Taira needs Yamato's victory while showing Kaku and Ryuumon's incompetence. Seii needs to destroy yamato. Therefore,
Any reinforcement from Taira leading to yamato's victory, will tarnish Ryuumon's reputation as a general, and Kaku's reputation as a strategist.
Because it would imply that Kaku and Ryuumon didn't do their job as military officers properly. To the point that Taira needed to intervene.
This could be a perfect justification for why Taira replaces Ryuumon.
Let's not forget that in this expedition, taira's son was sent as a lamb to justify Ryuumon and Kaku's incompetence:
So, we need to create a situation where:
If we want to understand how Kaku managed to make such a plan, we'll need to first get the tactical situation of Seii. And mostly HOW, did they manage to outplay Yamato.
A. Seii's 200 IQ invasion tactic
Seii in only 4 months under Wahjima created MANY feats, including this:
This is important because those paths will allow Seii to invade this part of Yamato.
They managed to nullify 130K soldiers in such a short time due to an old stratagem:
If they accept:
Yamato needs to bring soldiers as precaution and defend the officer. The 100K soldiers won't be deployed because they don't sense any danger incoming.
if they don't:
In both cases, 30K soldier are far away from Okuetsu. 100K are nullified.
Now, this is what I think, but I think it's probable that Seii knew about Yamato's internal conflict, they used this as a foundation to their invasion. Because their military officers wouldn't want help from Taira. As I explained earlier, it would only lead to their demise.
So, Seii hinged on this weakness to attack Yamato fiercely.
However, the operation has less chances of working if Yamato doesn't take the bait.
Although Yamato has taken the bait.
Kaku's intuition led him to retreat back to Fukui. And his aim was spot-on, he managed to be the only one aware of a potential invasion (or odd movements from Seii).
B. Foundation of Kaku's Certainty Anchor Stratagem: uncertainty control
1.Ryuumon's AURA
This part is important. Because Ryuumon's charisma will make Kaku's chances of succeeding in his plan SKYROCKET.
In episode 8, Kaku established that his victory was already assured, he found a way:
What does that mean ? Neutralizing Seii in a single move, with no reinforcements from Taira while making sure Naganime and his troops survive. This is the easy part, the hard part is on what flaw can he establish this plan ? Seii's unstoppable right now, they have IMMENSE momentum. They conquered an entire region (Okuetsu) and destroyed many castellans on their way. They are on fire.
And the only way for Kaku to truly execute his plan is to remove that fire, by :
The 2nd condition is important, because:
Invading a territory means that you need to conquer as quickly as possible. Being in an unknown land means that you need to do initiate almost every possible attack. You're always on the run, looking for another territory to take. But this makes the soldiers eventually weak physically and/or mentally. And to delay that state of exhaustion, gaining territory could be a way to:
get food/rest
motivate the soldiers.
This acts like a physical and mental BOOST. The more you gain, the more your soldiers are motivated. The more efficient the invasion becomes.
And this boost is called: MOMENTUM.
So, how will Kaku remove that momentum ? Well, Kaku's in quite an uncertain situation, he doesn't have a big army to fight back (every one is at Kanazawa). He's also at night, with Ryuumon. But who's Ryuumon ?
Ryuumon is the ultimate counter to uncertainty, simply because he accepts if fully.
Meanwhile, Seii is living in uncertainty. It's a land they never lived in.
Hence why the Bluff Stratagem existed, it hinged on the fact that since Seii didn't know anything about Yamato, there could be soldiers lurking around->destroy their gigantic army.
Since the bluff worked, what Ryuumon did was: temporarily isolate Seii's soldiers and remove their momentum.
Because Seii's leader has litterally left a guy making tea while she had thousands of soldiers. Her uncertainty tolerance is DESPICABLE. And that's her weakness, she's the best overthinker ever.
2. Seii's uncertain situation.
Now, we saw how Ryuumon created a chance for Kaku's plan to work by isolating removing momentum.
However, we didn't talk about how it's ALSO the pivot to Seii's strategy.
How Ryuumon's AURA is litterally the cog that forced Seii into a 10-move checkmate.
Right now, Seii's situation is:
60K soldiers in an unknown country VS 100K in their motherland.
Since they lost momentum and Wajima lost her authority, invading won't be as effiencent, it'll be slow. And that boost in mental and physical performances will slowly faint. Therefore, any invasion won't give enough to keep on going. Time is running short.
Even though Wajima recently regained back her momentum, they had too much time in Yamato. And the possibility of reinforcements coming is imminent. Since they need to leave with a big impact and can't get more land, they need Yamato to lose something.
Yamato has two great qualities: food and soldiers.
Since time's running short, they can't remove food.
Trying to cut food supplies requires information about their sources, coordination, and lots of time. And Seii has none of that. Unless, they managed to isolate Yamato's soldiers from their food. This is the foundation of:
3. Winter Strategy and the beginning of Seii's fall.
Since the only option right now, is to kill soldiers and remove food quickly.
they created a plan where going home GIVES the reward.
The Winter General Strategy.
(Quick context: at this point, Ryuumon's bold strategy led him to barricade himself in a castle)
And the Winter General Strategy will entirely be built on Yamato's imagined certainty.
From Yamato's POV: Ryuumon is in a castle in Fukui and Seii has nothing to lose. So, Seii will obviously attack Ryuumon who humiliated them as a last-ditch effort. And that's when we'll send reinforcements.
Seii will use that and make a new tactic:
It's a beautiful plan, truly.
If no one had Kaku's and Aoteru's intellect.
Because from their POV, it's easy to deduce that Yamato will do this plan.
How then ? well, let's not forget what Aoteru and Kaku see:
And here's the thing: There's NO counter-measure whatsoever regarding if :
If that's the case, Seii can't go back to yamato (they lost ALL of their momentum). So they can only go back to their home with nothing in their hands.
Now, that you understand all of this, we can finally delve dive in:
C. Kaku and Aoteru's Masterful plan: Uncertainty and its ultimate counter-measure: Certainty Anchors
You remember the traitor (Moriyama who used to idolize Wahjima) ?
He's what I call, a certainty anchor. Tsune will be one too.
Kaku's entire plan (theory)
On the other side, Aoteru Misumi and his silver tongue will make sure any reinforcement won't come.
Why did I think of this plan though ?
Because at the moment Ryuumon and Kaku talked about betting on that plan, they were in Reihoku, in the center of Fukui. Not very far from them was still Moriyama exiled in Fukui-Echizen.
Therefore, I think that Kaku sent a message/order to Moriyama and execute th plan. It could explain why the 200 soldiers were needed (and Moriyama). They served as an unpredictable variable that Seii couldn't even conceive inside their own heads.
It served as an unpredictable variable that will shamble Seii's certainty.
Also, Naganime is right now, totally isolated from the rest of Yamato.
No messages can be sent from Kaku and Naganime. Therefore, Kaku knows nothing from Naganime's situation. All he knows is that:
So he doesn't know if Naganime had the same idea as him (using Seii's invasion path to flee), by creating a small troup to investigate Seii's paths. Basically, Kaku's plan 2.0
Or, if he just can't because:
Same for Naganime, he doesn't know if traps are on this path. Or, soldiers lurking around.
If Seii has planned on killing the 30K soldiers with those said traps.
They're totally cooked.
And, Naganime DOESN't know if they exists.
Basically, there's no information, they don't know much going on.
And that's why Moriyama's here. He's like a sacrifical lamb that will elude the mystery.
If Moriyama manages to find a way to get to Naganime, he'll be able to clear the situation.
Although he's an exiled soldier, I think that Kaku already warned Moriyama or written a letter signed by him->gave him to Moriyama->Moriyama gives it to Naganime.
They can then go in Yamato very peacefully. If Naganime does try to regroup his soldiers at Daishoji, break Seii's fortress. Everything will be in vain. Because once they'll be inside Yamato. A confrontation between Seii and Naganime is inevitable. Which doesn't impact Winter General Strategy that much.
As you see, if Naganime comes back, the big yellow block is in his way (50K soldiers)
I think that's the only way for Yamato not to lose Taira's son and Ryuumon by consequence.
Now, let's get to Aoteru's part.
IV. The Real Meaning of "Lie in Firewood and Persuade the Heavens": Aoteru's Truthful lie.
And what-if Aoteru says the truth and only the truth ? This is what I call
A truthful lie.
What Aoteru's going to do after in the next episode is not, lie. He will explain the TOTAL truth to Taira.
He'll explain the winter strategy from Seii. The ultimate counter, this way, Taira will understand that, any reinforcement=loss for him militarily and politically.
But here's the thing, Aoteru will talk only about the situation here. He'll say something like
"Saving Naganime and his troops is now almost impossible unless they found a way to use Seii's own pathways (or not even say it to be honest).This might be due to Ryuumon's incompetence as a general and barricading himself"
"No reinforcement->My son dies at 100% chance->I don't need to move a finger to win. "
Aoteru doesn't necessarily need to talk about Seii's paths. He can blatantly say, Naganime were technically doomed from the start if you look at the available paths. Here, Aoteru did the same as Kaku:
they used the certainty their opponents had built on over-confidence.
But while one's confidence was built on living peacefully all his life. The other was built on a fake one.
One built through exposure, hardships, and high-stakes situation to rationalize the hell you're about to live in.
And finally, Tsune ?
What's his real role as a messenger ?
He'll simply tell to Ryuumon "yeah, Aoteru did it. He sent no reinforcement".
Aoteru here, did the same thing as Kaku, they used CERTAINTY ANCHORS.
It's also important to note that an imperial edict is basically the highest grade of order. You cannot bypass it if it's called upon. Now, the last part,
V. How Did Aoteru actually manage to deduce everything he needed to do ?
In order to do that, we need to first get all of the evidence that Aoteru has in his pov. Then, we can infer what Aoteru reasoned to make those decisions.
In episode 5, Kaku summoned the military youngsters to explain their tight situation and the obvious trap they're going in
Then, Moriyama showed his admiration for Seii->declared that it's best if they surrender->Kaku dismantled the argument->Aoteru exiled Moriyama.
Right now, Aoteru with this information:
Made him deduce that they have a role to play, Moriyama and the escord too. But what's the role to play ?
And to understand that, we need to go at episode 7:
There are protests going in Osaka, the capital of Yamato, regarding Seii's army invasion.
Deduction 0: there's someone of power who created this situation. That person wants to profit from it. It's Taira
However, no one of power could do this except Taira. And what can he profit from Osaka having a protest ?
Well, they have 100K soldiers in there.
So, if Taira creates an excuse to deploy them. It could be seen as a reason to destroy Seii with those soldiers. But this makes Kaku and Ryuumon's situation worse. They'll likely be eliminated after the war if Yamato succeeds. And Kaku wants to prevent that.
This is the part said in the anime. But to understand why Aoteru had that EUREKA moment. We need to do a synthesis of those deductions.
Deduction 1 :Moriyama and his absurd amount of escort soldiers have a precise role to play (other than escorting Moriyama)
Deduction 2:Kaku thinks that we (tsune, Aoteru etc...) also have a role to play
Deduction 3: Taira wants to take Ryuumon and Kaku's place by creating an excuse of incompetence
However, Aoteru also knows that bizzarely Taira's son is going in this obvious trap in Kanazawa. His son is a child, it's stupid to bring your son in such a situation, even with the context they're having. There's still a possibility of him dying there. At least, going there with your son would show more respect towards Seii's traitor AND wouldn't make you stressed. Either Taira doesn't care about his son's life. Or,
Deduction 4: Taira wants his son to die.
This could make sense as to why deduction 4 exists, because it'd help with deduction 3 (removing Ryuumon). Knowing Kaku's reputation as being a great strategist. It isn't far-fetched to assume that
Deduction 5: Kaku also understands the situation and wants to find a way to counter it.(or has found a way)
Deduction 6: That solution needs us as accountable.
But how could you find a solution ? You only have us, Moriyama (who's an exiled soldier because he thinks Seii is better).
What can we do to help ?
That's when Aoteru sees deduction 0 again and deduction 3. That's when it could probably click. Ultimate deduction: THey need to make sure no reinforcement arrives.
With this in mind, Aoteru can theorize as I did to create Kaku's certainty anchor theory once he'll get the reports of Seii's loss against Ryuumon, Ryuumon barricading himself.
welp, this is the end of my long ahh theory, hope you liked it. And what specific part did make u be like "Wtf is blud talking about ?"
During the first part of Contraband Game, Yokoya looked like a real clairvoyant. He dominated every round, predictedevery move. But there was one moment where that omniscience fell short. Today, that's what we're talking about
with a small dose of imagination. (perfect for any larper out here 😉**)**
Imagine you're a south Korean trader. You and your team have made fortune in North Korea, bizzarely...
Now, all of your money is inside North Korea's ATM.
However, both South and North Korea are now at war.
And so, your money in North Korea is in danger.
You cleverly decide to illegally smuggle your money in a switzerland account. But it's hard with inspectors everywhere.
Suddenly, your phone rings:
He's calling you because there are other North Korean traders with the same situation as you.
They made money in your motherland despite being north koreans. They want to smuggle their money in switzerland.
"This is truly outrageous, help me!" says the president.
Now, you're both a SMUGGLER and an INSPECTOR.
Worst part of it all ? The north korea president...
HE ALSO CALLED THE NORTH K TRADERS
He asks the same thing to those traders:
stop any illegal smuggling from happening inside north Korea, where all of your fortune is at.
Both presidents are giving the same reward though:
The money you stopped from being smuggled will go to your entire team: that means that if you can't smuggle money, your opponents will get it as a reward at the end of the game.
A few things before going further:
This is the basics of contraband game. A game where everyone's in the same situation.
And to officially "win" in contraband, you need to smuggle the most money inside your switzerland account.
This is LEVEL 1 reasoning. Because this is liar game, there is a depper level.
LEVEL 2:
Remember the deal with your president:
the money your opponents can't smuggle will go to you.
So you'll use this deal as a way to re-make fortune while still losing and leaving the Liar game organization. Which means having the least money in your 3rd account.
This level is crazy precisely bcz it's counter-intuitive:
"smuggle the most but making sure NOTHING goes in switzerland ?".
And yet, Yokoya saw that way earlier.
But not in the earlier parts I think, precisely because if that were the case, he'd intentionally lower his money in switzerland (we'll now call it 3rd account) by doubting 100M everytime.
Left is North (Yokoya's team), right is South (Akiyama's team)
In this part, he either:
But the latter looks like the less possible option. Simply because Yokoya would likely doubt in a round or two to lose more money in his 3rd account.
But he didn't do that. So we can't admit that Yokoya actually knew about LEVEL 2 from the start.
He just knew how to DOMINATE and READ PEOPLE.
So when is it then ?
When this guy made his appearance
I. Traitor
But you might ask, how did he use Kikuzawa ? Well, as Akiyama explained it marvelously:
1.After meeting in the inspection room
they send signals to each other ->those signals will conduct information about how much money is being smuggle in each round.
For example, if we are Kikuzawa and Yokoya, I'll tell you the amount I smuggle in the next 3 turns=10 dollars. Then, you'll tell me what you'll smuggle in the next 6 turns=5 dollars. The sum of each is equal to 30.
But if that's the case, why is Kikuzawa a traitor then ?
because Yokoya traumatized him during highschool so much that a simple question
There's still another question, why has Yokoya created this deal in the first place ? Which is what we'll talk about.
II. Equal minds, different styles.
But first, we need to show what feats Akiyama has demonstrated after seeing through this duo (kiku X yoko):
He finally got into LEVEL 2.
After the Kiku X Yoko plot, this is their situation:
they have more money in their 3rd than Yokoya's country. And less money in their ATM.
Basically, Yokoya has been applying that LEVEL 2 logic a long time ago by smuggling alot and doubting less than South.
And to prevent that, he did some card experiments:
This allowed him to deduce key things:
The first two deductions are primordial to his plan. Which allowed him to do this:
The 2nd step is the hardest, finding a traitor is no hard task. And Yokoya knew that WAY earlier. So he needed a plan, a much better and tight plan.
And Kikuzawa was the perfect candidate for this. Not because he'd smuggle at his place, but because:
during that phase, Yokoya was seen as a clairvoyant. But in order to execute his "powers" he needed to inspect LOTS of times.
A traitor inside Southern Country would also act as a problem that would disperse their focus. Forcing them at staying in LEVEL 1 comprehension.
However, the traitor getting caught, created a group disruption, Yokoya then saw this flaw:
their rotations were systematic
So, he took that opportunity to its advantage. He then told his teammate to basically say to them when their turns would arrive:
"My boss managed to get 300M out of his ATM with a single card. [explains the card reasoning to show how clever Yokoya is], he has a plan with this money but Idk what he's gonna do with it. I'm too stupid to know. So, I'm telling you this. It can be used to smuggle MORE money for your side too. Why am I saying this ? Because it's the last turn before the boss' plan is being executed. And when he starts doing his shit ? He's unstoppable. But mostly, because I hate him."
It's important to note that for the 3rd one, 1 BILLIOn was hidden behind the ATM. And the teammate made sure to not say anything about it. It was planned for him to just see it right there.
1.9 Billion gone just like that. This plan also worked because Yokoya executed it BEFORE Akiyama could see it.
III. Predictability and The One Unpredictable.
We just saw how complex and clairvoyant Yokoya has been. But where is his limit of his clairvoyance ?
Some are saying this move is the most GENIUS move in all of contraband game. Simply because, it's absorbing every scenario. And not only that, but he even PREDICTED and WANTED his clairvoyance bluff to be seen.
Now, we both know, Yokoya's an intellectually arrogant mind, who will always show it IN YOUR FACE when you are truly getting manipulated. And tell me,
do you see the face of a guy predicting these much scenarios ahead ?
This is a panel coming from the moment where
Someone THAT intellectually arrogant, with dominative tendencies, would NEVER "act" by looking shocked in front of one of the 3 imbeciles he selected.
Maybe if Akiyama was in the room, but he wasn't and couldn't see Yokoya's facial expression from that distance.
Even the mere idea of "faking" your astonishment doesn't follow Yokoya's established personality nor does it make him gain any advantages.
This makes the first condition "smuggle the most" invalid but leaves the other condition "least money in 3rd account" valid.
However, Yokoya wants both, this makes the possibility of Yokoya wanting this scenario, even less plausible.
With all of this factor, the likelies is this one: he got genuinely outplayed.
But why is he that astonished ? What was his true plan ?
Here's my theory:
Yokoya knew that Kikuzawa would still want that feeling of ruling. Therefore, he understood that even breaking the deal would still force Kikuzawa to try and do it again.
What he waited for was the continuation of this traitor scheme without anyone seeing it.
Meanwhile, Kikuzawa will still be dependant to Yokoya. When the Kiku X Yoko alliance will be over, all of the money will be inside Yokoya's ATM and victory will be way easier to obtain.
This could explain why Yokoya was so shocked when 91.2 Million was smuggled and not 91.1M.
What Yokoya did right after was just great skills of adaptability, not clairvoyance.
Let's hope you enjoyed this contraband game analysis.
And, before you leave this post, I'd like for you to answer a few questions:
Do you truly think Yokoya predicted THAT far ahead ? Is he that much of a GOAT ? If so, why ? And obviously, during this first part of the arc, which one is smarter ? Aki or Yoko ?
It's obvious who's smarter in the overall arc. 😉
(my bum ahh deleted the other one unintentionally ;-;)
During the first part of Contraband Game, Yokoya looked like a real clairvoyant. He dominated every round, predictedevery move. But there was one moment where that omniscience fell short. Today, that's what we're talking about
with a small dose of imagination.
Imagine you're a south Korean trader. You and your team have made fortune in North Korea, bizzarely...
Now, all of your money is inside North Korea's ATM.
However, both South and North Korea are now at war.
And so, your money in North Korea is in danger.
You cleverly decide to illegally smuggle your money in a switzerland account. But it's hard with inspectors everywhere.
Suddenly, your phone rings:
He's calling you because there are other North Korean traders with the same situation as you.
They made money in your motherland despite being north koreans. They want to smuggle their money in switzerland.
"This is truly outrageous, help me!" says the president.
Now, you're both a SMUGGLER and an INSPECTOR.
Worst part of it all ? The north korea president...
HE ALSO CALLED THE NORTH K TRADERS
He asks the same thing to those traders:
stop any illegal smuggling from happening inside north Korea, where all of your fortune is at.
Both presidents are giving the same reward though:
The money you stopped from being smuggled will go to your entire team: that means that if you can't smuggle money, your opponents will get it as a reward at the end of the game.
A few things before going further:
This is the basics of contraband game. A game where everyone's in the same situation.
And to officially "win" in contraband, you need to smuggle the most money inside your switzerland account.
This is LEVEL 1 reasoning. Because this is liar game, there is a depper level.
LEVEL 2:
Remember the deal with your president:
the money your opponents can't smuggle will go to you.
So you'll use this deal as a way to re-make fortune while still losing and leaving the Liar game organization. Which means having the least money in your 3rd account.
This level is crazy precisely bcz it's counter-intuitive:
"smuggle the most but making sure NOTHING goes in switzerland ?".
And yet, Yokoya saw that way earlier.
But not in the earlier parts I think, precisely because if that were the case, he'd intentionally lower his money in switzerland (we'll now call it 3rd account) by doubting 100M everytime.
Left is North (Yokoya's team), right is South (Akiyama's team)
In this part, he either:
But the latter looks like the less possible option. Simply because Yokoya would likely doubt in a round or two to lose more money in his 3rd account.
But he didn't do that. So we can't admit that Yokoya actually knew about LEVEL 2 from the start.
He just knew how to DOMINATE and READ PEOPLE.
So when is it then ?
When this guy made his appearance
I. Traitor
But you might ask, how did he use Kikuzawa ? Well, as Akiyama explained it marvelously:
1.After meeting in the inspection room
they send signals to each other ->those signals will conduct information about how much money is being smuggle in each round.
For example, if we are Kikuzawa and Yokoya, I'll tell you the amount I smuggle in the next 3 turns=10 dollars. Then, you'll tell me what you'll smuggle in the next 6 turns=5 dollars. The sum of each is equal to 30.
But if that's the case, why is Kikuzawa a traitor then ?
because Yokoya traumatized him during highschool so much that a simple question
There's still another question, why has Yokoya created this deal in the first place ? Which is what we'll talk about.
II. Equal minds, different styles.
But first, we need to show what feats Akiyama has demonstrated after seeing through this duo (kiku X yoko):
He finally got into LEVEL 2.
After the Kiku X Yoko plot, this is their situation:
they have more money in their 3rd than Yokoya's country. And less money in their ATM.
Basically, Yokoya has been applying that LEVEL 2 logic a long time ago by smuggling alot and doubting less than South.
And to prevent that, he did some card experiments:
This allowed him to deduce key things:
The first two deductions are primordial to his plan. Which allowed him to do this:
The 2nd step is the hardest, finding a traitor is no hard task. And Yokoya knew that WAY earlier. So he needed a plan, a much better and tight plan.
And Kikuzawa was the perfect candidate for this. Not because he'd smuggle at his place, but because:
during that phase, Yokoya was seen as a clairvoyant. But in order to execute his "powers" he needed to inspect LOTS of times.
A traitor inside Southern Country would also act as a problem that would disperse their focus. Forcing them at staying in LEVEL 1 comprehension.
However, the traitor getting caught, created a group disruption, Yokoya then saw this flaw:
their rotations were systematic
So, he took that opportunity to its advantage. He then told his teammate to basically say to them when their turns would arrive:
"My boss managed to get 300M out of his ATM with a single card. [explains the card reasoning to show how clever Yokoya is], he has a plan with this money but Idk what he's gonna do with it. I'm too stupid to know. So, I'm telling you this. It can be used to smuggle MORE money for your side too. Why am I saying this ? Because it's the last turn before the boss' plan is being executed. And when he starts doing his shit ? He's unstoppable. But mostly, because I hate him."
It's important to note that for the 3rd one, 1 BILLIOn was hidden behind the ATM. And the teammate made sure to not say anything about it. It was planned for him to just see it right there.
1.9 Billion gone just like that. This plan also worked because Yokoya executed it BEFORE Akiyama could see it.
III. Predictability and The One Unpredictable.
We just saw how complex and clairvoyant Yokoya has been. But where is his limit of his clairvoyance ?
Some are saying this move is the most GENIUS move in all of contraband game. Simply because, it's absorbing every scenario. And not only that, but he even PREDICTED and WANTED his clairvoyance bluff to be seen.
Now, we both know, Yokoya's an intellectually arrogant mind, who will always show it IN YOUR FACE when you are truly getting manipulated. And tell me,
do you see the face of a guy predicting these much scenarios ahead ?
This is a panel coming from the moment where
Someone THAT intellectually arrogant, with dominative tendencies, would NEVER "act" by looking shocked in front of one of the 3 imbeciles he selected.
Maybe if Akiyama was in the room, but he wasn't and couldn't see Yokoya's facial expression from that distance.
This makes the first condition "smuggle the most" invalid but leaves the other condition "least money in 3rd account" valid.
However, Yokoya wants both, this makes the possibility of Yokoya wanting this scenario, even less plausible.
With all of this factor, the likelies is this one: he got genuinely outplayed.
What was his true plan then ?
Here's my theory:
Yokoya knew that Kikuzawa would still want that feeling of ruling. Therefore, he understood that even breaking the deal would still force Kikuzawa to try and do it again.
What he waited for was the continuation of this traitor scheme without anyone seeing it.
Meanwhile, Kikuzawa will still be dependant to Yokoya. When the Kiku X Yoko alliance will be over, all of the money will be inside Yokoya's ATM and victory will be way easier to obtain.
This could explain why Yokoya was so shocked when 91.2 Million was smuggled and not 91.1M.
What Yokoya did right after was just great skills of adaptability, not clairvoyance.
Let's hope you enjoyed this contraband game analysis.
And, before you leave this post, I'd like for you to answer a few questions:
Do you truly think Yokoya predicted THAT far ahead ? Is he that much of a GOAT ? If so, why ? And obviously, during this first part of the arc, which one is smarter ? Aki or Yoko ?
It's obvious who's smarter in the overall arc. 😉
Recently, I have been into mystery animes like Hyouka or kubikiri cycle. What I loved the most there was how much I could just brainstorm and overthink situations bec1use the author had thought of every possibility.
But Im near the end of both animes and need something BIGGER more sustainable for my overthinking ahh.
So whats your overall experience when you played this game ? What are the good parts and bad (especially the bad) and would you say this novel could be for me ? (I might give my theories in this post if its good enough)
More precisely, the people already specialized in military history. Did that thought of "maybe I should convert my knowledge into creating a game of thrones-like series" ever come to you ?
Or has anyone asked of your knowledge to stress-test strategies they came up with their pieces of fiction ?
I feel like this sort of job would make fiction in general exponentially more entertaining. Especially the genre that requires smart characters and complex political moves.
And I guess you could say that this could also be a way for someone to stress-test the strategies used by different commanders in the past, right ?
Because not only can you implement them, refine them in your own way, but have an audience of thousands of people who will try to find its holes and indirectly, refining the best war strategies.
