u/JoseLunaArts

I had the idea of creating a fictional kpop band called Neon Valkyrie and create music for them using Suno. This song is the fanfare at the beginning of the concert when singers enter the stage and say hello to the public. It is very short because it only serves to kickstart the concert. I hope you like it.

"Neon Valkyrie" is a fictional Kpop group created by me. My account is supposed to show the songs of that Kpop group.

My wife loved kdramas. So it seemed appropriate to create a kpop band for Suno and start to create music as if that band was really real.

In this song I wanted to pass the secret that I received from a 100 year old elder about how to make a happy marriage. Newly wed people or young couples are the ones who could get the most from this song.

And of course, I wanted to create a musical experience for anyone else. If you are sad or had a bad day, just for the mood of the music itself this song hopefully may bring your mood up.

Languages: English and Korean. Hey! It is a kpop song!! What did you expect? But most of it is in English.

I have been doing some serious research about the incoming supply chain crisis because I did not want to be caught off-guard. I managed to collect tips to prepare for the incoming shockwaves. I hope you find this useful.

The Hormuz Strait thing is getting real. Fuel prices are up over 70 percent. Freight costs on major routes? Up more than 50 percent. And forget about certain key inputs like fertilizers, helium, resins, and sulfur based chemicals. Those are getting hammered. If you are a small business owner, the old rules like lean inventory and single suppliers are not just outdated anymore. They are genuinely dangerous.

What to do in the next one to two months

First, figure out what stuff you buy actually comes from the Gulf region or depends on it indirectly. That means not just raw materials from the Middle East, but anything made from oil or gas. Plastics, packaging films, solvents, resins, fertilizers, industrial chemicals. If you cannot trace where it comes from, assume it is a problem.

Second, stock up on your most critical, hard to replace inputs. Aim for 90 to 120 days of cover. Yeah, that ties up cash. But running out of something you cannot substitute stops your revenue completely. And that is way more expensive. Focus on high margin stuff or anything your clients absolutely need.

Third, renegotiate every fixed price contract you have got. Suppliers and customers both. Add automatic clauses for fuel and freight hikes. The volatility is not going to disappear when the war ends. Stick with rigid pricing right now and you are just slowly bleeding margin until you go under.

Fourth, find at least two backup suppliers that are totally outside the Gulf. They will cost more. Get over it. Think of it as insurance against a total shutdown. Look at Mexico, Brazil, Southeast Asia, or domestic sources if you can find them.

Fifth, start sharing shipping with other small businesses that are not direct competitors. Less than truckload shipping, co loaded containers, and shared warehousing all slash your per unit freight costs. See if you can start or join a little logistics co op.

Things to adjust over the next three to six months

Sixth, get off diesel wherever you possibly can. Prices are spiking everywhere and they are not going to settle down. In cities, look at electric cargo bikes or small EVs. For rural routes, consolidate your trips hard and stop running half empty.

Seventh, get some basic visibility into your inventory. This does not have to be fancy enterprise software. Even a decent spreadsheet updated every week can tell you days on hand per SKU, how much your lead times vary, and which suppliers actually come through. You cannot manage what you do not measure.

Eighth, push out your payment terms to suppliers while pulling in your receivables. Cash is oxygen right now. Offer customers a tiny discount like two percent if they pay within ten days to get money flowing in faster. Ask your new backup suppliers for 60 to 90 day terms.

Ninth, kill any low margin product line that depends heavily on Ormuz exposed inputs. If your margin is under 15 percent and the input price has doubled, that product is not a profit center anymore. It is a loss leader that will drain your working capital and distract you. Cut it before it cuts you.

Tenth, test a small batch, locally sourced version of your main product. Just a trial. Even if it costs more, it gives you a second supply line that works when global ones break. Think of it as a strategic option, not a permanent replacement.

Pricing and money moves

Eleventh, raise your prices now, openly, and do not wait until you are in the red. Tell your customers that fuel and freight surcharges are real and probably temporary, but necessary. Most people will accept a 5 to 15 percent increase if you are honest about it and give them a heads up.

Twelfth, lock down a revolving line of credit before banks get even tighter. Recession fears and supply chain chaos are making credit harder to get every month. Borrow while you still can, but only use it to build inventory of genuinely critical stuff, not for random spending.

Thirteenth, keep checking if the Small Business Administration has opened up Economic Injury Disaster Loans for Hormuz related supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical trade problems sometimes qualify. Do not just assume you do not qualify. Apply and make them tell you no.

Fourteenth, stop relying entirely on fixed monthly freight billing. Switch to a hybrid model, some contract rates mixed with some spot market purchases. Spot rates bounce around, but they can be cheaper if your shipping timing is flexible. Work with a forwarder who offers both and is transparent about it.

Cheap tech stuff with no big investment required

Fifteenth, mess around with free or low cost tools for demand forecasting. You do not need enterprise software. That said, remember that any forecast is basically looking through the rearview mirror. Disruptive events can still throw it off.

Sixteenth, buy some cheap IoT temperature and humidity sensors for any inventory that spoils. These things are under fifty bucks each. If your supply chain gets longer because ships are going around Africa, spoilage risk jumps. One ruined pallet of food, medicine, or electronics pays for a hundred sensors.

Seventeenth, look into joining a blockchain pilot for traceability if you export to regulated markets. Lots of logistics co ops and industry groups offer free or cheap onboarding for small businesses. If you only sell domestically, it is probably not urgent. But if you sell into European medical, organic food, or high end cosmetics, traceability is going to become mandatory. Get in early while it is cheap to learn.

Team up with others

Eighteenth, start or join a resilience buying group with five to ten other small local businesses. Pool your orders for alternative sourced inputs so you can hit minimum order quantities that none of you could manage alone. Share warehouse space and last mile delivery routes. What is impossible alone becomes doable together.

Nineteenth, actually go talk to a real person at your regional port, freight hub, or major trucking depot. Build a relationship. When capacity gets tight, relationships get your containers loaded ahead of anonymous ones. Do not just stare at digital portals. Pick up the phone and introduce yourself.

Twentieth, over communicate with every single customer about realistic lead times. Add a 50 to 100 percent buffer to your usual estimates. Under promise and over deliver. People will forgive delays if you warn them ahead of time. They will not forgive silence followed by surprise failures.

A few hard don'ts.

• Do not sit around waiting for things to go back to normal. Normal as you knew it in 2025 is not coming back until at least 2028 or 2029. While you are waiting, your competitors will adapt and take your customers.
• Do not slash all your inventory just to free up cash. No inventory means no sales when supply dips happen, and they will keep happening. The right inventory, which means strategic and intentional safety stock, is a weapon, not a burden.
• Do not stay loyal to a single long term supplier out of habit or emotion. Loyalty does not pay your bills. Diversify even if it is awkward or painful.
• Do not ignore fuel costs because you think prices will stabilize soon. Fuel touches everything: freight, plastics, packaging, fertilizers, even warehouse electricity. Run your numbers assuming oil stays between 100 and 130 dollars per barrel for the next 18 months.
• Do not be afraid to raise prices because you might lose customers. You will lose customers anyway when you run out of product or when your business goes under. Raising prices to survive is not greedy. It is how you keep paying your people and serving the customers who stick with you.

I have been doing some serious research about the incoming supply chain crisis because I did not want to be caught off-guard. I managed to collect tips to prepare for the incoming shockwaves. I hope you find this useful.

The Hormuz Strait thing is getting real. Fuel prices are up over 70 percent. Freight costs on major routes? Up more than 50 percent. And forget about certain key inputs like fertilizers, helium, resins, and sulfur based chemicals. Those are getting hammered. If you are a small business owner, the old rules like lean inventory and single suppliers are not just outdated anymore. They are genuinely dangerous.

What to do in the next one to two months

First, figure out what stuff you buy actually comes from the Gulf region or depends on it indirectly. That means not just raw materials from the Middle East, but anything made from oil or gas. Plastics, packaging films, solvents, resins, fertilizers, industrial chemicals. If you cannot trace where it comes from, assume it is a problem.

Second, stock up on your most critical, hard to replace inputs. Aim for 90 to 120 days of cover. Yeah, that ties up cash. But running out of something you cannot substitute stops your revenue completely. And that is way more expensive. Focus on high margin stuff or anything your clients absolutely need.

Third, renegotiate every fixed price contract you have got. Suppliers and customers both. Add automatic clauses for fuel and freight hikes. The volatility is not going to disappear when the war ends. Stick with rigid pricing right now and you are just slowly bleeding margin until you go under.

Fourth, find at least two backup suppliers that are totally outside the Gulf. They will cost more. Get over it. Think of it as insurance against a total shutdown. Look at Mexico, Brazil, Southeast Asia, or domestic sources if you can find them.

Fifth, start sharing shipping with other small businesses that are not direct competitors. Less than truckload shipping, co loaded containers, and shared warehousing all slash your per unit freight costs. See if you can start or join a little logistics co op.

Things to adjust over the next three to six months

Sixth, get off diesel wherever you possibly can. Prices are spiking everywhere and they are not going to settle down. In cities, look at electric cargo bikes or small EVs. For rural routes, consolidate your trips hard and stop running half empty.

Seventh, get some basic visibility into your inventory. This does not have to be fancy enterprise software. Even a decent spreadsheet updated every week can tell you days on hand per SKU, how much your lead times vary, and which suppliers actually come through. You cannot manage what you do not measure.

Eighth, push out your payment terms to suppliers while pulling in your receivables. Cash is oxygen right now. Offer customers a tiny discount like two percent if they pay within ten days to get money flowing in faster. Ask your new backup suppliers for 60 to 90 day terms.

Ninth, kill any low margin product line that depends heavily on Ormuz exposed inputs. If your margin is under 15 percent and the input price has doubled, that product is not a profit center anymore. It is a loss leader that will drain your working capital and distract you. Cut it before it cuts you.

Tenth, test a small batch, locally sourced version of your main product. Just a trial. Even if it costs more, it gives you a second supply line that works when global ones break. Think of it as a strategic option, not a permanent replacement.

Pricing and money moves

Eleventh, raise your prices now, openly, and do not wait until you are in the red. Tell your customers that fuel and freight surcharges are real and probably temporary, but necessary. Most people will accept a 5 to 15 percent increase if you are honest about it and give them a heads up.

Twelfth, lock down a revolving line of credit before banks get even tighter. Recession fears and supply chain chaos are making credit harder to get every month. Borrow while you still can, but only use it to build inventory of genuinely critical stuff, not for random spending.

Thirteenth, keep checking if the Small Business Administration has opened up Economic Injury Disaster Loans for Hormuz related supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical trade problems sometimes qualify. Do not just assume you do not qualify. Apply and make them tell you no.

Fourteenth, stop relying entirely on fixed monthly freight billing. Switch to a hybrid model, some contract rates mixed with some spot market purchases. Spot rates bounce around, but they can be cheaper if your shipping timing is flexible. Work with a forwarder who offers both and is transparent about it.

Cheap tech stuff with no big investment required

Fifteenth, mess around with free or low cost tools for demand forecasting. You do not need enterprise software. That said, remember that any forecast is basically looking through the rearview mirror. Disruptive events can still throw it off.

Sixteenth, buy some cheap IoT temperature and humidity sensors for any inventory that spoils. These things are under fifty bucks each. If your supply chain gets longer because ships are going around Africa, spoilage risk jumps. One ruined pallet of food, medicine, or electronics pays for a hundred sensors.

Seventeenth, look into joining a blockchain pilot for traceability if you export to regulated markets. Lots of logistics co ops and industry groups offer free or cheap onboarding for small businesses. If you only sell domestically, it is probably not urgent. But if you sell into European medical, organic food, or high end cosmetics, traceability is going to become mandatory. Get in early while it is cheap to learn.

Team up with others

Eighteenth, start or join a resilience buying group with five to ten other small local businesses. Pool your orders for alternative sourced inputs so you can hit minimum order quantities that none of you could manage alone. Share warehouse space and last mile delivery routes. What is impossible alone becomes doable together.

Nineteenth, actually go talk to a real person at your regional port, freight hub, or major trucking depot. Build a relationship. When capacity gets tight, relationships get your containers loaded ahead of anonymous ones. Do not just stare at digital portals. Pick up the phone and introduce yourself.

Twentieth, over communicate with every single customer about realistic lead times. Add a 50 to 100 percent buffer to your usual estimates. Under promise and over deliver. People will forgive delays if you warn them ahead of time. They will not forgive silence followed by surprise failures.

A few hard don'ts.

• Do not sit around waiting for things to go back to normal. Normal as you knew it in 2025 is not coming back until at least 2028 or 2029. While you are waiting, your competitors will adapt and take your customers.
• Do not slash all your inventory just to free up cash. No inventory means no sales when supply dips happen, and they will keep happening. The right inventory, which means strategic and intentional safety stock, is a weapon, not a burden.
• Do not stay loyal to a single long term supplier out of habit or emotion. Loyalty does not pay your bills. Diversify even if it is awkward or painful.
• Do not ignore fuel costs because you think prices will stabilize soon. Fuel touches everything: freight, plastics, packaging, fertilizers, even warehouse electricity. Run your numbers assuming oil stays between 100 and 130 dollars per barrel for the next 18 months.
• Do not be afraid to raise prices because you might lose customers. You will lose customers anyway when you run out of product or when your business goes under. Raising prices to survive is not greedy. It is how you keep paying your people and serving the customers who stick with you.

I have been doing some serious research about the incoming supply chain crisis because I did not want to be caught off-guard. I managed to collect tips to prepare for the incoming shockwaves. I hope you find this useful.

The Hormuz Strait thing is getting real. Fuel prices are up over 70 percent. Freight costs on major routes? Up more than 50 percent. And forget about certain key inputs like fertilizers, helium, resins, and sulfur based chemicals. Those are getting hammered. If you are a small business owner, the old rules like lean inventory and single suppliers are not just outdated anymore. They are genuinely dangerous.

What to do in the next one to two months

First, figure out what stuff you buy actually comes from the Gulf region or depends on it indirectly. That means not just raw materials from the Middle East, but anything made from oil or gas. Plastics, packaging films, solvents, resins, fertilizers, industrial chemicals. If you cannot trace where it comes from, assume it is a problem.

Second, stock up on your most critical, hard to replace inputs. Aim for 90 to 120 days of cover. Yeah, that ties up cash. But running out of something you cannot substitute stops your revenue completely. And that is way more expensive. Focus on high margin stuff or anything your clients absolutely need.

Third, renegotiate every fixed price contract you have got. Suppliers and customers both. Add automatic clauses for fuel and freight hikes. The volatility is not going to disappear when the war ends. Stick with rigid pricing right now and you are just slowly bleeding margin until you go under.

Fourth, find at least two backup suppliers that are totally outside the Gulf. They will cost more. Get over it. Think of it as insurance against a total shutdown. Look at Mexico, Brazil, Southeast Asia, or domestic sources if you can find them.

Fifth, start sharing shipping with other small businesses that are not direct competitors. Less than truckload shipping, co loaded containers, and shared warehousing all slash your per unit freight costs. See if you can start or join a little logistics co op.

Things to adjust over the next three to six months

Sixth, get off diesel wherever you possibly can. Prices are spiking everywhere and they are not going to settle down. In cities, look at electric cargo bikes or small EVs. For rural routes, consolidate your trips hard and stop running half empty.

Seventh, get some basic visibility into your inventory. This does not have to be fancy enterprise software. Even a decent spreadsheet updated every week can tell you days on hand per SKU, how much your lead times vary, and which suppliers actually come through. You cannot manage what you do not measure.

Eighth, push out your payment terms to suppliers while pulling in your receivables. Cash is oxygen right now. Offer customers a tiny discount like two percent if they pay within ten days to get money flowing in faster. Ask your new backup suppliers for 60 to 90 day terms.

Ninth, kill any low margin product line that depends heavily on Ormuz exposed inputs. If your margin is under 15 percent and the input price has doubled, that product is not a profit center anymore. It is a loss leader that will drain your working capital and distract you. Cut it before it cuts you.

Tenth, test a small batch, locally sourced version of your main product. Just a trial. Even if it costs more, it gives you a second supply line that works when global ones break. Think of it as a strategic option, not a permanent replacement.

Pricing and money moves

Eleventh, raise your prices now, openly, and do not wait until you are in the red. Tell your customers that fuel and freight surcharges are real and probably temporary, but necessary. Most people will accept a 5 to 15 percent increase if you are honest about it and give them a heads up.

Twelfth, lock down a revolving line of credit before banks get even tighter. Recession fears and supply chain chaos are making credit harder to get every month. Borrow while you still can, but only use it to build inventory of genuinely critical stuff, not for random spending.

Thirteenth, keep checking if the Small Business Administration has opened up Economic Injury Disaster Loans for Hormuz related supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical trade problems sometimes qualify. Do not just assume you do not qualify. Apply and make them tell you no.

Fourteenth, stop relying entirely on fixed monthly freight billing. Switch to a hybrid model, some contract rates mixed with some spot market purchases. Spot rates bounce around, but they can be cheaper if your shipping timing is flexible. Work with a forwarder who offers both and is transparent about it.

Cheap tech stuff with no big investment required

Fifteenth, mess around with free or low cost tools for demand forecasting. You do not need enterprise software. That said, remember that any forecast is basically looking through the rearview mirror. Disruptive events can still throw it off.

Sixteenth, buy some cheap IoT temperature and humidity sensors for any inventory that spoils. These things are under fifty bucks each. If your supply chain gets longer because ships are going around Africa, spoilage risk jumps. One ruined pallet of food, medicine, or electronics pays for a hundred sensors.

Seventeenth, look into joining a blockchain pilot for traceability if you export to regulated markets. Lots of logistics co ops and industry groups offer free or cheap onboarding for small businesses. If you only sell domestically, it is probably not urgent. But if you sell into European medical, organic food, or high end cosmetics, traceability is going to become mandatory. Get in early while it is cheap to learn.

Team up with others

Eighteenth, start or join a resilience buying group with five to ten other small local businesses. Pool your orders for alternative sourced inputs so you can hit minimum order quantities that none of you could manage alone. Share warehouse space and last mile delivery routes. What is impossible alone becomes doable together.

Nineteenth, actually go talk to a real person at your regional port, freight hub, or major trucking depot. Build a relationship. When capacity gets tight, relationships get your containers loaded ahead of anonymous ones. Do not just stare at digital portals. Pick up the phone and introduce yourself.

Twentieth, over communicate with every single customer about realistic lead times. Add a 50 to 100 percent buffer to your usual estimates. Under promise and over deliver. People will forgive delays if you warn them ahead of time. They will not forgive silence followed by surprise failures.

A few hard don'ts.

• Do not sit around waiting for things to go back to normal. Normal as you knew it in 2025 is not coming back until at least 2028 or 2029. While you are waiting, your competitors will adapt and take your customers.
• Do not slash all your inventory just to free up cash. No inventory means no sales when supply dips happen, and they will keep happening. The right inventory, which means strategic and intentional safety stock, is a weapon, not a burden.
• Do not stay loyal to a single long term supplier out of habit or emotion. Loyalty does not pay your bills. Diversify even if it is awkward or painful.
• Do not ignore fuel costs because you think prices will stabilize soon. Fuel touches everything: freight, plastics, packaging, fertilizers, even warehouse electricity. Run your numbers assuming oil stays between 100 and 130 dollars per barrel for the next 18 months.
• Do not be afraid to raise prices because you might lose customers. You will lose customers anyway when you run out of product or when your business goes under. Raising prices to survive is not greedy. It is how you keep paying your people and serving the customers who stick with you.

Until february 2026 Wall Street and the Fed were in complete control of the economy. The plan was to create irrational exuberance to sell securities. On May 2026 lower interest rates would have added cheap credit to fuel a bubble. Until November, iconic AI companies would go IPO fueled by the exuberance. And a few months later, bubble pops. Rich get the money of the IPO garage sale and people take the losses.

But it did not go as planned. Trump started his 48 hours Iran war and it did not go as planned. And now there is a physical crisis travelling across the supply chains that will hit US.

The first wave of crisis was increase in gas prices in US.

The second wave is expected to hit in october as an inflationary crisis that will include anything having plastic, metal or microchips in US.

The third wave will be a food crisis in 2027 with physical scarcity of goods in US.

The tariff initiative is not going as planned either. Even if tariff refund only goes to corporations as a bailout, it also means that tariffs will not add another layer of inflation to the consumer with the second and third waves.

In the original plan, 2027 would be a tough year as it would be a dotcom bubble that would be at least 17 times larger. But the Iran war ruined it. Trump barely has managed to create slight optimism during specific days with his posts about the war.

But there are some invisible after shocks that may not be easy, but give people an edge over AI. The Iran war involved the physical destruction of production facilities in the middle east. No contingency plan can resist the physical destruction of production. Supply chains will be disrupted for years, which in terms of planning means permanent disruption, before and after.

That makes all data on supply chains to be useless. And with changes yet to come, it is expected that disruptions last at least to the next year.

• Useless data means that statistical forecasting becomes useless. Companies will need humans analyzing the situation to adapt to the new situation. AI can only extrapolate the past into the future. Companies that replace humans with AI will not have the edge of human thinking.
• AI can only look into the Internet, dig existing information. Humans can analyze and anticipate effects and make decisions. That means that human chances to compete against AI have improved. We are not anymore in a business as usual where AI usage can thrive.
• Disruptions will require innovation, anticipating business models, adapting products, and most importantly, navigate in the stormy seas.

The Iran war ruined the plans of the AI bubble to have an IPO garage sell and then burst the bubble. So tech bros now are forced to cut jobs to have the money to repay loans. Under the original plan, there would be a financial crisis, then an economic crisis, both way bigger than the 2008 crisis.

Under the original plan, survivors would be those well connected with privileged information in Wall Street. Now with the Hormuz crisis, survivors will be those companies that manage to truly innovate and make really good managerial decisions in stormy seas.

This Hormuz crisis, while not easy, empowers people way more than the original AI crisis plan. It makes it harder for companies to replace people with AI.

Of course we also will have some dumb decision makers at the top of companies who think that lay-offs are the solution to any crisis, and they will turn their companies into empty shells that lack any know-how and any residual capabilities or competitive advantages.

The fall of such companies will leave open markets for start-ups and competitors to have extra market share.

What do you think?

This video is 26 years old and someone seem to have reposted it more recently.

It belongs to a different era of Internet, when Internet was just fun and people did things for passion, not to monetize or get likes. It was a time when home made creativity made things very relatable.

Propagandists say there will be "world crisis" as if USA was outside the world. I have news, it is not.

Lets us start with SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation) and EGA (Emirates Global Aluminium) two middle east companies and how they will affect American consumer.

Based in the UAE, EGA is the world's largest producer of "premium aluminium" and a major industrial company, operating smelters in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

SABIC is a Riyadh-based global leader in diversified chemicals, petrochemicals, plastics, and fertilizers, primarily owned by Saudi Aramco. Founded in 1976, it operates in over 50 countries, supplying materials for automotive, construction, healthcare, and electronics industries. It is one of the world's largest petrochemicals manufacturers.

SABIC facilities in the eastern industrial city of Jubail sustained damage from fires sparked by intercepted missile debris during heightened regional conflict. EGA sustained significant damage to its facilities at the Al Taweelah site in the Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi (KEZAD) due to missile and drone attacks attributed to Iran.

The American consumer’s grocery bill is set to rise primarily due to a two-fold impact: a sharp increase in the cost of packaging materials (aluminum and tinplate steel) essential for canned goods and beverages, and a surge in oil and natural gas prices that ripples through every stage of the food supply chain. While the direct effects of the conflict on EGA in the UAE and SABIC in Saudi Arabia are contributing to global shortages of aluminum and petrochemicals, the impact on U.S. grocery prices is being amplified by existing U.S. tariffs, which add a 50% levy on many of these imported metals .

The most immediate and visible increases will be on canned and packaged goods. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supplies of aluminum, a primary input for beverage cans, and tinplate steel, which is used for food cans. Experts note that the 50% U.S. tariff on these metals means that any increase in global prices is significantly magnified for American consumers .

This will directly raise the cost of items including canned soups (like Campbell's), canned vegetables and fruits, canned beans and tomato paste, as well as canned tuna and chicken broth . For beverages, canned beer and soda will also see price hikes, as aluminum is the largest single input cost for brewers, adding roughly 3 cents or more per can . Food manufacturers like ConAgra and Campbell's have already indicated they may be forced to raise prices due to these increased packaging costs .

Beyond packaging, the crisis will drive up the price of nearly every item in the grocery store through energy and petrochemical costs. Higher oil prices act as a "tax" on the entire food supply chain, affecting the cost of fuel for tractors and trucks, the cost of fertilizer for growing crops, and the cost of the plastic used for wrapping, bottles, and containers .

The region supplies over 30% of the world's seaborne fertilizer (like urea and ammonia), and disruptions have already pushed these prices higher, increasing production costs for American farmers and, eventually, the cost of bread, corn, and other staples .

Petrochemicals derived from oil and natural gas, which are also disrupted, are used in countless plastic packaging films, bottles, and containers. As the cost of these inputs rises, consumers will see higher prices for a wide range of items, from milk and cheese packaged in plastic to detergents and other household goods .

Notice that these price increases will not appear overnight but will build over several months. While prices at the gas pump rise quickly, the impact on the broader grocery store is more gradual, taking months to fully materialize as costs work their way through complex supply chains . Economists warn that a prolonged crisis could lead to a permanent shift in consumer behavior, with higher prices persisting even after the conflict ends, particularly if infrastructure damage to fertilizer plants and refineries takes years to repair.

The effects from the SABIC, EGA, and the broader agricultural crisis are expected to hit Americans with a significant delay, with the most substantial impact on grocery bills likely appearing in 2027.

This lag occurs because many large U.S. farms had already purchased most of their fertilizer and secured diesel prices for the 2026 planting season before the conflict began. As a result, current planting decisions are based on pre-crisis costs, and the higher expenses are not yet fully reflected in the supply chain. Experts estimate that if the crisis persists and begins to affect input prices for the 2027 crop, real food price effects will start to be seen in 2027, with food-at-home inflation potentially rising by 3 to 6 percentage points over the following 12 to 18 months. Analysts also suggest that higher prices could persist for more than eight months after the conflict's resolution.

Beyond SABIC and EGA, the conflict has caused significant damage to several other major industrial facilities across the Gulf region.

In the United Arab Emirates, the Borouge petrochemicals plant in Ruwais Industrial City was hit by falling debris from intercepted drones and missiles, resulting in multiple fires and the immediate suspension of all operations at the facility . Additionally, a significant aluminum industrial facility in the UAE was also explicitly targeted by Iranian forces as part of the same wave of attacks .

In Bahrain, the state-owned Bapco Energies company confirmed that a hostile Iranian drone attack sparked a fire at one of its major storage tanks . Furthermore, the Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company, another state-run petrochemical plant in Bahrain, saw two of its units ignited by the strikes, with authorities assessing the damage . The kingdom's primary oil refinery, Bapco Energies refinery, was also severely impacted according to conflict assessment data .

Kuwait was hit hard in the energy sector, with two separate facilities suffering significant damage. The Kuwait National Petroleum Company's facilities, specifically the Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah oil refineries, were struck, resulting in fires that were later contained . A separate drone attack from Iran caused significant material damage to two Kuwaiti electrical generation units and water desalination plants, which are critical infrastructure for the water-scarce nation .

In Saudi Arabia, the industrial city of Jubail, which houses a massive twenty billion dollar joint venture petrochemical complex called Sadara between Saudi Aramco and Dow Chemical, was targeted by Iranian missiles and drones . Other facilities in Jubail belonging to ExxonMobil were also reportedly targeted, as was a petrochemical complex in Juaymah associated with Chevron Phillips . The Ras Tanura crude processing plant, one of the world's largest, suffered a fire and partial shutdown, while the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu was also damaged by a drone strike .

Qatar, a major global supplier of natural gas, saw its vital Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facilities sustain significant damage from the strikes, disrupting a key source of global energy supply .

The destruction and disruption affecting Middle Eastern industrial facilities will have an impact on a vast range of products consumed across the United States, touching nearly every sector from agriculture to construction and from packaged foods to automobiles. The most direct and immediate effects will be felt in the prices of everyday consumer goods, as the crisis reduces the global supply of critical raw materials like aluminum, plastics, and petrochemicals, forcing American manufacturers to pay more and pass those costs along to households.

Beginning with food and agriculture, American consumers will see higher prices on a wide array of grocery items as a direct consequence of fertilizer shortages caused by the conflict. The Persian Gulf region is a dominant supplier of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with countries near the Strait accounting for nearly half of global urea exports and about thirty percent of global ammonia exports before the war disrupted shipments through the waterway.

As farmers face soaring costs for these essential inputs, the increased expenses will inevitably be reflected in the price of staple crops such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, which in turn will drive up costs for processed foods, animal feed, and ultimately meat, dairy, and poultry products.

The American Farm Bureau Federation has explicitly warned that without action to secure fertilizer shipments, the United States risks a shortfall in crops, threatening food security and contributing to inflationary pressures across the economy.

Beyond the farm, the destruction of petrochemical plants in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, including facilities operated by SABIC, Borouge, and the Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company, has choked off supplies of the raw materials that underpin modern manufacturing.

The most visible impact for American consumers will be on plastic products of every description. Prices for commodity-grade plastics such as polyethylene and polypropylene, which are used extensively in packaging, have already surged by nearly twenty percent in the United States, while plastic used for beverage bottles has risen by approximately fifteen percent. These increases mean that everything from milk jugs and soda bottles to shampoo containers and trash bags will become more expensive.

The shortage of key petrochemical intermediates like monoethylene glycol and purified terephthalic acid, which are used to produce polyester fibers and polyethylene terephthalate, will affect clothing, carpeting, and food packaging materials. American manufacturers of medical supplies, including syringes and IV bags, are also feeling the squeeze, as their input costs rise dramatically.

The destruction of aluminum smelters in the UAE, including the massive Al Taweelah facility operated by Emirates Global Aluminium, together with damage to plants in Bahrain, has sent shockwaves through global aluminum markets. These facilities, which together had an annual capacity of over three hundred twenty thousand tons before the attacks, were critical suppliers to the United States and Europe, which together relied on the Middle East for approximately twenty percent of their aluminum imports.

The loss of this supply, combined with the stranding of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, has caused the price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange to climb to nearly thirty-four hundred dollars per ton, with analysts warning that prices could break four thousand dollars if the conflict persists.

For American consumers, this translates directly into higher costs for a multitude of everyday products. Aluminum is the primary material for beverage cans, meaning the cost of soda, beer, and canned sparkling water will rise. It is also essential for foil wraps, disposable baking trays, and aerosol containers. In construction, aluminum price increases will affect window frames, siding, gutters, and roofing materials. In the automotive sector, aluminum is increasingly used to lighten vehicles, so repair costs and the price of new cars could also be affected.

Also, industries that rely on high-cost aluminum alloys for aerospace, marine, and defense applications will see significant cost pressures.

The destruction of energy infrastructure across the region, including the targeting of Kuwaiti electrical generation and desalination plants, Saudi refineries, and Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facilities, feeds directly into broader inflationary pressures. While Americans may not see these specific facilities mentioned on their utility bills, the resulting spike in global oil and natural gas prices ripples through every sector of the economy.

Higher energy costs increase the price of gasoline and diesel for transportation, which in turn raises the cost of shipping all goods, from groceries to furniture. Natural gas is also a key feedstock for the production of nitrogen fertilizers and many plastics, meaning energy price increases compound the already-severe shortages in those markets.

TLDR. The destruction suffered by Middle Eastern companies will not only make specific products like canned soda, plastic wrap, and window frames more expensive but will also contribute to a generalized increase in the cost of living for American consumers as higher energy and material costs work their way through the entire economic system.

The American grocery bill will rise due to the combined pressure of more expensive raw materials for packaging, higher agricultural input costs, and increased transportation and logistics expenses.

The impact on American consumers will not be immediate but will arrive in two waves. The energy shock is already happening, with gasoline prices above $4 per gallon due to the blockade cutting off 20 percent of global oil supply. The food price shock will hit later because farmers bought most of their fertilizer before the war started. The full impact on grocery bills is expected in 2027, when higher fertilizer costs force farmers to plant less or pay more, raising prices for meat, dairy, and processed foods. If the crisis continues for three quarters or more, the peak of economic pain will arrive around October or November 2026, and the destruction of petrochemical and fertilizer plants in the Middle East that already happened. will take years to repair, meaning higher prices will persist well beyond any ceasefire.

Today: "You should create your own service company using AI agents to make money more easily."

Tomorrow: Arbitrary ban, AI company takes control of monetization of your company. Same situation faced by content creators today. This is the email that the CEO of the service company will receive in the future. Similar to what content creators suffer today.

Dear service company user:

This email is to inform you that your account associated with our company has been permanently suspended, effective immediately, due to violations of our Community Guidelines and Terms of Service.

What this means for you:

• Access Terminated: You no longer have access to our company’s platforms, AI agents, or data tools.
• Transfer of Management: To ensure continued service stability and adherence to safety standards, all AI agents, user data, and monetization streams associated with your account are being transferred to our approved service partner division.

Next Steps regarding Data and Monetization:
Our service partner division will now directly handle all inquiries, data management, and revenue distribution related to your previous activity.

• Contact Information: Please direct all future questions, data requests, or payment inquiries to [Service Company Name] at this email address.
• Data Protection: We are working with our service partner division to ensure a secure transfer of assets in accordance with our data protection policies.

This decision is final and follows a thorough review of the policy violations.

Sincerely,

Our AI company