u/YellowBirdISuppose

The fact that I'm making this mod has been public knowledge on the discord for a few days now but I might as well share it here

reposted because I forgot to add r5

Let's not erase history, shall we. People seem to be ignoring the actual historical margins on each of these states while making predictions. People are talking about how blue Texas is while predicting red Ohio. Texas is a bright red state.

Meanwhile, Ohio is a much bluer state. Other than the "big seven" swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, Ohio was the state that went for Trump by the lowest margin. In the senate race, accounting for Sherrod Brown's incredible overperforming, it only went for Moreno, arguably a better candidate than Husted, by 3.6 points. Trump's popular vote margin was 1.5. I don't think I've seen a single prediction this cycle that honestly thinks that the popular vote will be less than D+2.1. And yet I see prediction after prediction that Ohio will go red.

Next, Michigan. Mike Rogers lost to a lackluster candidate in a red wave year. He's an electoral underperformer and is not charismatic. It doesn't even matter whether the Dems nominate Sayed or Stevens, though Sayed would do better, Rogers will lose.

In Alaska, Peltola has won statewide before, winning in a red year (2022), and barely losing in 2024. Her margin was R+2.0, and Trumps, as I mentioned a minute earlier, was R+1.5. Alaska is shifting left quickly, and no one is predicting a D+0.4 popular vote. Alaska is also probably the single most elastic state in the country, so that's another point in her favor. This is even more of a slam dunk than Ohio. PEOPLE UNDERESTIMATE HOW MUCH GOOD CANDIDATES OVERPERFORM EVEN IN THE MODERN DAY!

On a much more sobering note for the Democrats, Susan Collins's concern overwhelms even the mightiest of foes. After adjusting for the popular vote, Susan Collins overperformed by 13.6 (such that in a neutral year she would win by 13.6). I've still seen a few people predicting higher margins than D+13.6, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. (Personally I expect a margin of about D+7-11). However, her likely opponent, Troy Jackson, is also a massive electoral overperformer, and some of her votes will surely haunt her. I honestly think it is more likely than Republicans win in Maine than any of Alaska, Michigan or Ohio combined.

Now, the final two, the hardest to overcome for the Democrats than any of the other swing races, and the reason for my title. My thesis is that Iowa is an easier Senate election for the Democrats to win in than Texas.

Iowa's coattails are incredible for Turek. I think everyone here believes in the Sandstorm at this point and it's seeming likely he'll carry the state by likely margins. Meanwhile, contrary to popular belief, Iowa was closer than Texas in 2024, and tariffs + fertilizer prices hit farmers especially hard. Turek is a good candidate, and Hinson being the only Republican overperformer (other than Susan Collins of course) doesn't entirely fix that, purely in a battle of candidate quality Turek beats her. And don't forget: just because Joni Hearse dropped out doesn't mean that the Democrats won't use "we'll all die sooner or later" for everything it's worth. Iowa went for Barack Obama both times and is a very elastic state, (I mean so did the mother of all red states but still). In 2020 it was only R+6.5 for Ernst, a neutral year level of R+11 which is still, let's not forget, closer than Maine was. Further, Iowa is a very cheap media market compared to Texas, and a smaller amount of funding can go a long way (this is why it's a much better state to invest in DNC please read this). Another thing is that Zack Wahls is in fact, not a narcissist (unlike certain primary losers in a certain much larger red state ahem ahem), and has been happy to campaign for Turek. People like to talk about how Democrats need to win back the white working class, how they need to win back farmers, how they need to win back all of these groups that are literally Iowa's most common demographics.

Now let's talk about Texas. Paxton is a really bad candidate to be clear, but I don't actually think he's much worse than Ted Cruz. To quote the late Lindsey Graham, "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you." Ted Cruz, unlike Paxton, has never been impeached by a Republican state legislature, but he's also a jerk and it's obvious to everyone. Cruz fails the "beer test" while Paxton does... eh? Not good, certainly, but in the modern day where a rapist is present scandals are becoming less of an issue compared to just being an obvious jerk. I expect him to underperform by roughly the same amount as Cruz will, maybe a little more. Now let's look at Talarico. Talarico is a good candidate but r/YAPms seems to either think he is the second coming of Lyndon B. Johnson or the second coming of Adolf Hitler (for... reasons? I'll admit I don't understand this). I expect him to overperform a lot among Latinos and basically maintain white voters, with what would be slight to significant losses among Black voters in a neutral cycle (but it's not a neutral cycle so he won't actually lose votes). Overall I expect a total improvement of about a point from Ted Cruz based on the candidate quality alone. However, there are other factors. Texas has probably the second or third most expensive media market (after the aforementioned mother of all red states and maybe New York) and it costs a lot of money to campaign there, which reduces the relevance of Talarico's fundraising lead. Further, Texas is less elastic than a lot of other states and as a Southern state it has racial polarization that is really difficult to overcome, limiting the size of the blue wave. It also has Crockett, who has had one of the most monumental falls in politics and is now sulking for the entire cycle and refusing to campaign. This will demotivate black voters, one of the 3 crucial blocs needed (Suburban white voters, black voters, and latino voters, Talarico is best with the first and the third but we really need all 3) to win in Texas. Abbott is set to win re-election in a landslide, unlike Sand, which will have major coattails, potentially carrying Paxton over. Also it's Texas, we've seen this movie before. The Democrats recruit a great candidate, raise boatloads of money, everyone hates the republican, and then they lose by half a percent. I'm optimistic about this year, especially given the great polling, but look at Iowa. Texas will be super close, but we can't forget about Iowa, which is not an unattainable fairyland. It is one of the Dem's best hopes for flipping the senate. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

I'm sure the house map is really bad I've only done one of these (this one) also I have 0 clue where the 2 tossups are I cannot find them.

Moving onto the governors map:

- Alaska: Tom Begich is leading in polls (as few of them as there are) by a substantial margin. Peltola will be enough to carry him over. I put tilt but honestly while going over this I'm gonna move it to lean. D+1.5

- Nevada: Lombardo is popularish, but can't stand the blue wave. D+2

- Texas: Abbot will overperform by a decent margin as usual. R+7

- Georgia: Ossoff carries Bottoms over. D+6

- Arizona: Easy win for the Dems. Considered putting it as likely. D+4

- Ohio: Literally anything Ramaswamy says is "Perhaps you can discuss abolishing Ohio's universities with Governor Acton after the election" advisor feedback level. D+2

- Wisconsin: Hong may underperform but not enough to lose. D+3

- Michigan: I almost forgot about this race. Blue wave. D+6

- Iowa: I BELIEVE IN THE SANDSTORM! Even the more R leaning NYT poll still had him ahead. Meanwhile the Fox News poll had him 9 points up. It isn't even a lean race at this point. D+7.

- Pennsylvania: RacetotheWH which *is* a pretty good model despite the criticism this sub likes to give it says that Maryland going red is more likely. It just barely reaches Safe territory. D+17.

- Kansas: I think this one is a sleeper hold. With the rapid shift left and Kelly's popularity the Dems could very hold it. R+0.8

-Oklahoma: Oklahoma republicans are so utterly incompetent... R+14

- Alabama: Doug Jones will not win. He can make it close though when no one else can. R+12

Senate races:

- Alaska: fish. D+4. Honestly there's a very good case for it being likely blue but I couldn't quite justify it. Peltola is a generational candidate.

- Maine: I don't even know what to put here. Populism and even slopulism are pretty effective political strategies whatever I actually think about them. But Susan Collins is Susan Collins and Graham Planter is... Graham Planter. I suspect that one of them will have a sudden and dramatic overperformance. Populists with personal scandals do very frequently, but so does Susan Collins. I am so unsure about this race that I didn't even assign a rating in the map. R+0.01. Recounts for weeks.

- North Carolina: The only "swing" part about this race is whether Cooper breaks 15 points. I don't think he will, but it'll be close. D+13

- Georgia: See above. Cooper is a slightly better candidate and Ossoff's opponent is significantly better. Only D+8

- Texas: Talarico is a great candidate. This is an environment that I doubt will be seen again for a decade or more. It's Texas. Crockett is throwing. What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? R+0.2 is what.

- Iowa: Turek and Hinson are both good candidates. I think this is really the most sleeper of sleeper flips but I also think given current events it's gotten more and more likely. Even just a few months ago I dismissed this race as "the hardest possible Dem pickup" and lean R. However, the Fox News poll and Rob Sand probably carrying Turek over... It'll be close but honestly I think it goes blue. D+2

- Idaho: I think the Independent here will do a lot better than most people think. R+8

- Michigan: El-Sayed is a great candidate. We're not in 2002. He's not gonna lose because he has a muslim name. D+6

- Nebraska: It's a very big success on the part of the Independent and Nebraska Democrats that this is a swing race, but I think the partisan lean of the state is a bit too much to overcome. R+3

- Ohio: I really don't get why people think Husted is gonna win. Sherrod Brown barely lost in 2024. It's 2026 now. D+3.

-Louisiana & Mississippi: Remember Trump's fight with the pope earlier? Catholics do. And I doubt they're thrilled about it. Louisiana and Mississippi have very high racial polarization, but I expect that just enough white Catholics will stay home to push this over into likely territory. R+14.