Without a doubt it’s excruciating to be range bound for pretty much 4 months. Killer earnings across the memory trade, but fears of cyclical nature of memory being a commodity and earnings not being durable, the highly misleading article re ARR of OpenAI, as well as frothy extremely short term call option buying all expiring OTM. There has also been extreme selling in Korea due to foreign selling, ETF rebalancing, and missed earnings from Samsung even tho analysts upgraded expectations despite Samsung already tempering expectations. Toshiba news.. HDD more supply somehow crushed memory SDD lmao...

Just a wave of negative news

But.. yes, here’s the silver lining:

1. improving macro - war news cooling off, oil down, yields are down;
2. earnings across the chain continue to demonstrate that memory supply will remain highly constrained;
3. we typically get huge downward moves post earnings, so far it’s been a bleed; and
4. still above $1000, albeit testing support.

Ok, so why not straight highs? Well we are heading into a very volatile part of the year, and funds are simply de-risking from extremely high beta stock, which basically have been semis. Huge put buying on semi, memory and MU - why? Well you can see it yourself large funds move in unison for a sector rotation across breadth due to cooling of war news / lower yields. It’s a way to diversify.

Ok, so what now? What will the catalyst be to push things forward, will it fall?

Well MU and SNDK has lost MAs, retail sentiment is garbage and everyone is jumping or thinking of jumping. Can there be more pain? Probably not as much as people think. This is simply an accumulation phase albeit a short one. Why do I think this range will be short????

It’s simple… the inverse relationship between software and AI is back in play. IGV is close to ATHs, we are about to go through the gauntlet for hyperscaler earnings. It’s simple we have plenty of catalysts - increase capex spending, more data centers, neoclouds reporting growth, and don’t forget the upcoming anthropic IPO.

So imo… the range one way or another will break. If hyperscalers announce decrease in projected capex, which I don’t think they will, then yeah down goes memory. Probably 200MA, and you’ll need buy backs to maintain a high price but then I would argue that ATHs will be out of the picture until 2027.

Cope to find reasons for MU to go up? Yeah probably, people have pointed it out, but I would see the foregoing will pretty much at a high level dictate where we go within the next month

People keep asking why NBIS trades at a premium to names like IREN. To me, the answer is confidence.

NBIS exudes institutional credibility and gives people confidence that management can actually execute. Jensen has mentioned Nebius multiple times, while you rarely hear IREN discussed in the same way. That is not proof by itself, but it tells you which company has real industry mindshare and which one important people are comfortable standing behind.

I listened to IREN’s earnings call and, honestly, it felt like a complete clown show...amateur hour. That did not matter as much during the first phase of the AI infrastructure trade because the tide was raising every boat. If you had power, land and an AI data-center presentation, money came pouring in.

But the easy-money phase is ending.

From here, the real companies are going to break away from the ones that were simply along for the ride. Execution, credibility, customer relationships and management quality are going to matter much more than simply announcing another gigawatt pipeline.

That is why NBIS deserves a premium. The market is not only paying for today’s capacity or revenue. It is paying for trust.And trust compounds. More confidence attracts more capital. More capital supports faster deployment. Faster deployment attracts better customers and partners. Better customers create even more confidence.

That is how the rich get richer, and why I think the gap between NBIS and the rest of the field is more likely to widen than disappear.

My read is this is slightly bearish for NBIS, but not thesis-breaking. The obvious negative is that Nebius will have to spend more to build the same amount of compute capacity right as its 2027 deployment ramps, which hurts free cash flow and potentially extends the payback period on new data centers. The real risk is whether NBIS already locked in customer pricing for 2027 without locking in the cost of the underlying NVIDIA systems. On the other hand, this appears to be an industry-wide cost increase, so Nebius may be able to pass much of it through through higher cloud pricing, while its already-installed GPU capacity becomes more valuable. Given how strong demand and pricing have been, I would view this more as a margin/ROIC concern than a demand problem. The key things to watch are whether management changes its capex-per-MW assumptions, contract payback periods, or 2027 pricing expectations.

It may also increasing push hyperscalers to rent rather than do the build out themselves. It's hard to tell where things land, but would not be surprised if we get bearish next week.

Another read is that this hasn't been a secret that Nvidia has voiced the need to address the growing memory issue - and 15%... well perhaps its less than what's priced in, so the opposite may happen and we moon next week as well.

TLDR may go up or down lmao.

Nebius Group announces pricing of upsized private offering of $5.0 billion of convertible senior notes

Nebius Group N.V. (“Nebius Group” or the “Company”; NASDAQ: NBIS), the AI cloud company, today announced the pricing of its offering of $5.0 billion aggregate original principal amount of convertible senior notes, in two series: $3.0 billion aggregate original principal amount of 0.50% convertible notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and $2.0 billion aggregate original principal amount of 4.50% convertible notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes”, and together with the 2030 Notes, the “Notes”), in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The offering was upsized from the previously announced offering size of $4.5 billion aggregate original principal amount of the Notes. The issuance and sale of the Notes are expected to settle on August 24, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. Nebius Group has also granted the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, for settlement within a period of 13 days from, and including, the date the Notes are first issued, up to an additional $450 million aggregate original principal amount of 2030 Notes and up to an additional $300 million aggregate original principal amount of 2034 Notes.

Concurrently with the pricing of the offering of the Notes, in separate, privately negotiated transactions, the Company entered into exchange agreements with a limited number of holders of the Company’s 2.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes” and, together with the 2029 Notes, the “Existing Notes”), pursuant to which the Company will exchange $400 million aggregate original principal amount of the 2029 Notes and $400 million aggregate original principal amount of the 2031 Notes for an aggregate of approximately 15.8 million of its Class A ordinary shares, par value €0.01 (“Class A shares”) . The terms of each such exchange were individually negotiated with each participating holder. Holders of the Existing Notes that participated in such exchanges may sell the Class A shares in the open market and/or enter into or unwind various derivative transactions in connection with hedge positions they may have with respect to the Existing Notes. These activities could decrease (or reduce the size of any increase in) the market price of the Class A shares or the trading price of the Company’s other securities. The completion of the Notes offering is not contingent upon the completion of the exchange transactions. The exchange transactions are expected to settle on or about August 24, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.

The Company estimates that the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes will be approximately $4.94 billion (or approximately $5.68 billion if the initial purchasers fully exercise their option to purchase additional Notes), after deducting the initial purchasers’ discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses.

The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes to finance the continuing growth of its business, including expenditures related to the construction and build-out of its data centers, investments to develop its full-stack AI cloud, the expansion of its data center footprint and the procurement of key components (including GPUs), and for general corporate purposes.

The Notes will be issued pursuant to respective indentures (the “Indentures”) between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”). The Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company and will bear interest on the original principal amount thereof at an annual rate of 0.50%, in the case of the 2030 Notes, and 4.50%, in the case of the 2034 Notes, payable semi-annually in arrears on February 15 and August 15 of each year, beginning on February 15, 2027.

The initial conversion rate for the 2030 Notes is 3.1902 Class A shares per $1,000 original principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $313.46 per Class A share. The initial conversion price of the 2030 Notes represents a premium of approximately 40.0% over the last reported sale price of $223.90 per Class A share on Nasdaq on August 19, 2026. The initial conversion rate for the 2034 Notes is 3.0802 Class A shares per $1,000 original principal amount of Notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $324.65 per Class A share. The initial conversion price of the 2034 Notes represents a premium of approximately 45.0% over the last reported sale price of $223.90 per Class A share on Nasdaq on August 19, 2026. The conversion rate and conversion price of each series of Notes will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events. For conversions made in connection with a “make-whole fundamental change,” as defined in the respective Indenture, the conversion rate will be increased based on a customary make-whole table. For the avoidance of doubt, for the purposes of the exercise of any conversion rights in respect of the Notes, the conversion rate and conversion price will be based on the original principal amount of Notes, and not the Accreted Principal Amount (as defined below).

The 2030 Notes and the 2034 Notes will mature, and the original principal amount of such Notes plus an amount accreted thereon (together, the “Accreted Principal Amount” in respect of the relevant series of Notes) will be payable, on February 15, 2030 and February 15, 2034, respectively, unless the relevant Notes have been earlier repurchased, redeemed or converted in accordance with their terms. The Accreted Principal Amount for the relevant series of Notes will be calculated in accordance with an accretion schedule to be included in the respective Indenture such that, in the case of the 2030 Notes, it reaches 110% of the original principal amount of the 2030 Notes on the respective maturity date and, in the case of the 2034 Notes, it reaches 125% of the original principal amount of the 2034 Notes on the respective maturity date.

Taking into account the Accreted Principal Amount payable at the respective maturity date, the effective conversion price of the 2030 Notes is equal to approximately $344.81 per Class A share at maturity, implying an effective conversion premium of approximately 54.0%, and the effective conversion price of the 2034 Notes is equal to approximately $405.82 per Class A share at maturity, implying an effective conversion premium of approximately 81.3%.

Prior to the close of business on the business day immediately before the date that is two months prior to the respective maturity date of each series of Notes, the Notes of such series will be convertible only upon satisfaction of certain conditions and during certain periods, including if the last reported sale price of the Class A shares over a specified period of time is equal to or greater than 130% of the product of the conversion price for the relevant series of the notes and the then-applicable ratio of the Accreted Principal Amount at the time to the original principal amount of the Notes (the “Accretion Ratio”). From the date that is two months prior to the respective maturity date of each series of Notes, the Notes of such series will be convertible at any time at the election of the holders of such Notes until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately preceding the respective maturity date. The Company will settle conversions of the Notes by paying or delivering, as applicable, cash, Class A shares or a combination of cash and Class A shares, at the Company’s election (subject to certain conditions related to Dutch tax laws).

The Company may not redeem the Notes prior to February 21, 2028 in the case of the 2030 Notes, and August 21, 2028 in the case of the 2034 Notes, except in the event of certain tax law changes. The Notes will be redeemable, in whole or in part (subject to certain limitations), for cash on or after February 21, 2028 in the case of the 2030 Notes, and August 21, 2028 in the case of the 2034 Notes, and on or before the 30th scheduled trading day immediately before the relevant maturity date, but only if (i) such Notes are freely tradable (as defined in the Indentures) and all accrued and unpaid additional interest thereon, if any, has been paid as of the date the Company sends the related redemption notice and (ii) the last reported sale price per Class A share is equal to or exceeds 130% of, or in the case of any 2034 Notes that are to be redeemed on or after August 21, 2028 and prior to August 21, 2029, 150% of, the product of the conversion price for the relevant series of Notes and the then applicable accretion ratio for such series of Notes for a specified period of time. The redemption price for the relevant series of Notes will be equal to the Accreted Principal Amount as of the redemption date of the Notes being redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, on the original principal amount thereof to, but excluding, the redemption date. Following delivery of a redemption notice by the Company in respect of a series of the Notes, holders of the Notes of such series will have the right, at their option, to convert their Notes prior to the close of business on the second business day immediately preceding the redemption date, at the conversion rate applicable at the time. No make-whole adjustments to the conversion rate will be made in connection with any optional redemption or tax redemption.

If certain corporate events that constitute a “fundamental change” occur, then, subject to a limited exception, noteholders may require the Company to repurchase their Notes for cash. The repurchase price will be equal to the Accreted Principal Amount of the relevant series of Notes to be repurchased as of the fundamental change repurchase date, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, on the original principal amount thereof to, but excluding, such repurchase date.

The offer and sale of the Notes and any Class A shares deliverable upon conversion of the Notes or deliverable in the exchange transactions described above have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or any other securities laws, and the Notes and any such Class A shares cannot be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and any other applicable securities laws.

This press release does not and shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, nor shall there be any offer, solicitation or sale of such securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, sale or solicitation would be unlawful. This press release does not constitute an offer to exchange or purchase or a notice of redemption with respect to the Existing Notes.

About Nebius

Nebius, the AI cloud company, is building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future — from data and model training to production deployment. Founded on deep in-house technological expertise and operating at scale with a rapidly expanding global footprint, Nebius serves startups and enterprises building AI products, agents and services worldwide.

Nebius is listed on Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NBIS) and headquartered in Amsterdam.

For more information please visit www.nebius.com.

Media kit nebius.com/media-kit.

Disclaimer

Forward-looking statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which involve risks and uncertainties. All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our ability to successfully complete the offering and exchange transactions described herein, our future financial and business performance, strategy, expected growth, planned investments and capital expenditures, capacity expansion plans, anticipated future financing transactions and expected financial results, are forward-looking statements. The words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “estimate,” “expect,” “guide,” “intend,” “likely,” “may,” “will” and similar expressions and their negatives are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond our control. Actual results may differ materially from the results predicted or implied by such statements, and our reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. The potential risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from the results predicted or implied by such statements include, among others: market, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; our ability to build, operate and manage our businesses to the desired scale; competitive pressures; technological developments; our ability to secure and retain clients; our ability to secure additional capital to enable the growth of the business; unpredictable sales cycles; and potential pricing pressures; as well as those risks and uncertainties related to our continuing businesses included under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Operating and Financial Review and Prospects” in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on April 30, 2026, as amended.

All information in this press release is as of the time of its issuance on August 19, 2026 (unless stated otherwise). Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after the date on which the statements are made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

In addition, statements that “we believe” and similar statements reflect our beliefs and opinions on the relevant subject. These statements are based upon information available to us as of the date of this press release and, while we believe such information forms a reasonable basis for such statements, such information may be limited or incomplete, and our statements should not be read to indicate that we have conducted an exhaustive inquiry into, or review of all potentially available relevant information. These statements are inherently uncertain, and investors are cautioned not to unduly rely upon these statements.

Macro backdrop + dilution (shorting bond arbitrage + dilution being priced in) still can not push NBIS back down below 240.

Institutions accumulated. Shorts will definitely cover as they can see downward pressure is being exhausted despite all the "bearish news" having diminishing impact.

"The WSJ reporting that the long-feared “Google Zero” moment — when Google Search largely stops sending traffic to third-party sites — some publications are seeing traffic drops of more than 40% between mid-2025 and mid-2026. Publishers face a choice: allow Google’s multi-purpose crawlers (which feed both traditional search and AI training) or block them and lose search visibility entirely. Several major outlets, including USA Today, Reddit, Politico, Reuters and others, are now openly considering or preparing to restrict Google’s access, while Cloudflare plans to start blocking multi-purpose crawlers by default from mid-September unless site owners opt out. The old model in which publishers had no real alternative to Google’s rules is cracking" - Goldman TMT note

Since everyone is shouting out ideas...

Reddit is leaving money on the table by treating promotional content as a mostly binary issue: either it is an official Reddit advertisement or it is spam.

The platform is far too large and diverse for one centralized advertising model. A mechanical-keyboard subreddit, gaming forum, local city subreddit, and adult creator community all have completely different commercial ecosystems. In many cases, a relevant promotion is not intrusive. It may be exactly what users came to that community to discover.

Reddit should build an opt-in community marketplace system. Think of it as Shopify for communities: Reddit provides the centralized infrastructure, including advertiser verification, payments, disclosures, analytics, fraud prevention, and platform-wide rules, while moderators determine which promotional categories fit their subreddit and how frequently sponsored content may appear.

In some ways, Reddit could also be a better distribution layer than Facebook Marketplace. Facebook must infer what users are interested in and then find the right audience for each listing. Reddit has already solved much of that problem through the fundamental structure of the platform. Users voluntarily organize themselves into highly specific communities based on shared interests. Reddit does not need to determine whether someone cares about keyboards, skincare, watches, or a particular video game. The user has already joined the relevant subreddit.

That built-in segmentation creates a marketplace with unusually high-intent distribution. A keyboard company could launch a product directly within a keyboard community. A game publisher could sponsor a tournament in the subreddit where its most engaged players already gather. A local business could reach users who have explicitly joined that city’s community. Reddit already has the audiences. It mainly needs to build the commercial infrastructure around them.

Reddit would take a percentage of each transaction or promotion and share a portion with moderators or a transparent community treasury. That gives moderators two balancing incentives: grow the community’s traffic and commercial value, while protecting its quality. If they approve too many irrelevant promotions, users leave and the marketplace becomes less valuable.

The model would need safeguards. Sponsored content should be clearly labeled, promotional volume should be capped, and moderators should not be allowed to remove legitimate criticism of sponsors or privately sell favorable treatment. Reddit should remain the merchant of record and control payments, compliance, and enforcement.

The opportunity is not one generic Reddit marketplace. It is one centralized Reddit-owned system supporting thousands of specialized marketplaces, each naturally tailored by the community that already exists around it. Much of this economic activity already occurs informally through affiliate links, product recommendations, creator promotions, and off-platform transactions. Reddit should formalize it and participate in the economics.

This applies for kickstarter, donation mechanisms, etc. Reddit has so many unique ways to distribute to its inherent communities nature.

u/spez u/adsjunkie management sees this... I know your in-house counsel team is full of ex-latham ... me too... hit me up. if you want a director level...M&A/CM w/ in-house experience with killer business sense lmao.

Any hardcore gamers out there? I used to love the old-school games because they provided genuine challenge: no restarts, no tooltips, and they felt like genuine puzzles. I played everything: FPS, RTS, and especially MMOs. Eventually, as I got older, it really felt like, at least for gaming, those long hours were an escape from reality because I hated climbing the corporate ladder and just overdosing myself on pure dopamine.

Vibe coding completely changed my life. I can dump tens of hours into it, feel productive, and it brings me genuine happiness and pride to build something that is truly my own. And I don’t feel that dread; I’m excited to wake up to work on it. I still get a bit of burnout sometimes, and the nice thing is I just pivot to something that I’m working on.

Low-key, vibe coding cured my depression.

For those interested, I'm working on a third-party keyboard called Emigo: Better Texting, that has pre-built in prompts/modes, that help reframe, interpret, and create texts for the better via AI. Beta on app store, but working on version 2. Right now, the biggest challenge is creating autocorrect completely from scratch and training my own ML model to help rank the correct words. Excited to share more about this soon!