Macro backdrop + dilution (shorting bond arbitrage + dilution being priced in) still can not push NBIS back down below 240.

Institutions accumulated. Shorts will definitely cover as they can see downward pressure is being exhausted despite all the "bearish news" having diminishing impact.

"The WSJ reporting that the long-feared “Google Zero” moment — when Google Search largely stops sending traffic to third-party sites — some publications are seeing traffic drops of more than 40% between mid-2025 and mid-2026. Publishers face a choice: allow Google’s multi-purpose crawlers (which feed both traditional search and AI training) or block them and lose search visibility entirely. Several major outlets, including USA Today, Reddit, Politico, Reuters and others, are now openly considering or preparing to restrict Google’s access, while Cloudflare plans to start blocking multi-purpose crawlers by default from mid-September unless site owners opt out. The old model in which publishers had no real alternative to Google’s rules is cracking" - Goldman TMT note

Since everyone is shouting out ideas...

Reddit is leaving money on the table by treating promotional content as a mostly binary issue: either it is an official Reddit advertisement or it is spam.

The platform is far too large and diverse for one centralized advertising model. A mechanical-keyboard subreddit, gaming forum, local city subreddit, and adult creator community all have completely different commercial ecosystems. In many cases, a relevant promotion is not intrusive. It may be exactly what users came to that community to discover.

Reddit should build an opt-in community marketplace system. Think of it as Shopify for communities: Reddit provides the centralized infrastructure, including advertiser verification, payments, disclosures, analytics, fraud prevention, and platform-wide rules, while moderators determine which promotional categories fit their subreddit and how frequently sponsored content may appear.

In some ways, Reddit could also be a better distribution layer than Facebook Marketplace. Facebook must infer what users are interested in and then find the right audience for each listing. Reddit has already solved much of that problem through the fundamental structure of the platform. Users voluntarily organize themselves into highly specific communities based on shared interests. Reddit does not need to determine whether someone cares about keyboards, skincare, watches, or a particular video game. The user has already joined the relevant subreddit.

That built-in segmentation creates a marketplace with unusually high-intent distribution. A keyboard company could launch a product directly within a keyboard community. A game publisher could sponsor a tournament in the subreddit where its most engaged players already gather. A local business could reach users who have explicitly joined that city’s community. Reddit already has the audiences. It mainly needs to build the commercial infrastructure around them.

Reddit would take a percentage of each transaction or promotion and share a portion with moderators or a transparent community treasury. That gives moderators two balancing incentives: grow the community’s traffic and commercial value, while protecting its quality. If they approve too many irrelevant promotions, users leave and the marketplace becomes less valuable.

The model would need safeguards. Sponsored content should be clearly labeled, promotional volume should be capped, and moderators should not be allowed to remove legitimate criticism of sponsors or privately sell favorable treatment. Reddit should remain the merchant of record and control payments, compliance, and enforcement.

The opportunity is not one generic Reddit marketplace. It is one centralized Reddit-owned system supporting thousands of specialized marketplaces, each naturally tailored by the community that already exists around it. Much of this economic activity already occurs informally through affiliate links, product recommendations, creator promotions, and off-platform transactions. Reddit should formalize it and participate in the economics.

This applies for kickstarter, donation mechanisms, etc. Reddit has so many unique ways to distribute to its inherent communities nature.

u/spez u/adsjunkie management sees this... I know your in-house counsel team is full of ex-latham ... me too... hit me up. if you want a director level...M&A/CM w/ in-house experience with killer business sense lmao.

Any hardcore gamers out there? I used to love the old-school games because they provided genuine challenge: no restarts, no tooltips, and they felt like genuine puzzles. I played everything: FPS, RTS, and especially MMOs. Eventually, as I got older, it really felt like, at least for gaming, those long hours were an escape from reality because I hated climbing the corporate ladder and just overdosing myself on pure dopamine.

Vibe coding completely changed my life. I can dump tens of hours into it, feel productive, and it brings me genuine happiness and pride to build something that is truly my own. And I don’t feel that dread; I’m excited to wake up to work on it. I still get a bit of burnout sometimes, and the nice thing is I just pivot to something that I’m working on.

Low-key, vibe coding cured my depression.

For those interested, I'm working on a third-party keyboard called Emigo: Better Texting, that has pre-built in prompts/modes, that help reframe, interpret, and create texts for the better via AI. Beta on app store, but working on version 2. Right now, the biggest challenge is creating autocorrect completely from scratch and training my own ML model to help rank the correct words. Excited to share more about this soon!