u/judechrist4444

It’s been a rollercoaster ride for investors like myself, but I believe the value of Reddit data for AI training is still vastly being under-appreciated.

Reddit provides the DNA of human thoughts for some of the smartest people online. It’s data that is not published on a blog, Wikipedia or in news article.

Expect a major re-rating upwards as improvements in LLM architecture plateaus (which it is) and training data becomes a key again for LLM improvement.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride for investors like myself, but I believe the value of Reddit data for AI training is still vastly being under-appreciated.

Reddit provides the DNA of human thoughts for some of the smartest people online. It’s data that is not published on a blog, Wikipedia or in news article.

Expect a major re-rating upwards as improvements in LLM architecture plateaus (which it is) and training data becomes a key again for LLM improvement.

The cadence of AI progress right now is set by OpenAI and their releases of ChatGPT models.

I believe this a temporary phenomena as hyperscalers, sovereign nations, and even large corporates abandon the closed-architecture of OpenAI and Nvidia GPUs.

The future is open-sourced hardware (TPUs) and software (Gemini) and $GOOGL has shown itself to be at the forefront of this evolution.

Closed LLMs like X’s Grok are notoriously biased and users are picking up on this crux. Google’s Gemini has shown itself to be a neutral model, and has unique training data (Gmail + YouTube) that peers lack.

Ironically, the CUDA moat that made $NVDA famous will likely lead to its toppling as king (AMD ROCm is getting good enough).

$QUBT $QBTS $RGTI $IONQ are popping.

Sadly, the promise of any connection with AI remains de minimis (quantum computers aren't needed for LLMs and the cost is prohibitive).

It's also peculiar that a president who abhors research spending (e.g., cutting medical research to NIH) suddenly decides quantum computing (one of the most challenging research efforts) is worth co-investing alongside his personal work portfolio aka the U.S. Treasury.

It's odd and the entire QC ecosystem feels like a R&D project trying to feed off the AI infra hype, yet lacks near term viability or even commerciability.

I don't often play shorts, but I believe this is a great basket to short - especially $QUBT (formerly a beverage co that makes research gadgets like this "dirac-3").

Outside of options trading, I'd say shorting is one of the most difficult ways to add alpha.

My experience with shorts is betting on extremely egregious narratives like quantum computing.

But just like options trading, you can be right on price direction and still get screwed on timing and implied vol.

But shorting requires fewer parameters on your side for it to work (and yes, it can be big like options).

Imho, the best risk-adjusted short trades for retail investors center around debit put spreads, where you're long a higher-strike entry put and short a lower-strike put to help ease funding and increase leverage.

The strike window in a debit put spread is critical - you're aiming to capture the gamma / convexity of the trade without being too greedy (by selecting too low a lower strike).

Timing is mitigated in debit put spreads by shorting the lower strike puts - I generally use that coupon to extend my play time (expiry).

I am still learning but I do believe short strategies are very viable now in this bizarre environment we have with Trump.

1. Bitcoin is ultimately a digital ledger / code secured by distributed consensus.
2. Its value comes from a collective belief that the ledger and scarcity matter.
3. Unlike productive assets, Bitcoin does not generate cash flow or earnings.
4. Therefore its long-term value depends almost entirely on continued belief in its monetary properties, not on any productive real-world attributes.

I don't believe investors have priced in the entire AI stack that $GOOGL owns.

From ads to software (Gemini LLMs) to hardware (TPUs) to data ingestion (Gmail, YouTube), unlike any other company.

It's building products for commercial applications like Vertex AI (an LLM product that actually makes sense for businesses).

If you're really think about it, $NVDA has nothing beyond its latest GPUs. It's running fast to build up track record for other domains, but it's far behind Google.

$QUBT $QBTS $RGTI $IONQ are popping today.

The promise of any connection with AI is de minimis (quantum computers aren't needed for LLMs and the cost is prohibitive).

I don't play shorts, but I believe this is a great basket to short - especially $QUBT (formerly a beverage co).

Is it just Atman = Brahman?

I mean let’s get real about this subred.

Anyone with a portfolio of $1M+ will unlikely be trading on single name stocks.

Look, I’m sure there are folks who have done what the subred founder did, but most retail investors with that much capital is risk averse.

Really the “race” is to $1M and then start improving your source of income to hit $10M net worth.

Don’t be delusional and lose all your capital on single stocks.

I have BP1 with psychotic features and have tried many strains from sativa to indica to hybrid.

I am also coming out of akathisia and cannabis has retriggered it.

In short, if you have bipolar, cannabis will make your situation worse - the relief is temporary.

I find 3 shots of espresso + 3 bags of sugar + vyvanse does the trick.

Convince me this is not an R&D sinkhole with no foreseeable apps for the AI infra buildout.

When stocks crash, it crashes harder.

When stocks rip, it barely moves.

All these bullish predictions are from bagholders.

The early investors have ditched it and moved on.

Also what value does bitcoin really have?

Decentralized digital currency? BS.

I get they're dominating the GPU cloud provider space, but my gut says their services are a commodity and hyperscalers prefer to own the hardware themselves (a vertical stack).

Not rely on hardware managed by a Russian - am I wrong here?

Convince me otherwise.

1. To launch all of these SBDCs, you're polluting the LEO (low earth orbit) with rectangular garbage that is prone for catastrophic failure upon each minor collisions with debris.

2. Silicon chips do not like outer space so unless you shield it, most of these GPUs will be nonfunctional in a few years.

3. The cost of launching these SBDCs become highly prohibitive vs exploring land-based options.

4. +Many more engineering challenges that make the entire project a fantasy rather than reality.

Look, I'll be direct.

Musk is using SBDCs to hype up SpaceX (to make an a AI-aligned play) ahead of his IPO.

Am I missing something here?

Seems like these prediction markets are ripe with insider trading.

I am having a hard time understanding how broken promises on FSD (full self driving) for the past decade warrants a 400 P/E.

Real question for Musk investors - what do you see in $TSLA and for the matter Musk himself?