u/reddituserxxxxxxx7

I’m 32 about to be 33 and just stuck in the depressing grind of factory work. I know deep down I can’t keep doing this. Yet I cannot figure out a way out.

I’m 32. Male. About $35k in savings. Working in food production driving a forklift in a very high pressure fast paced environment. No growth opportunities. Churn and burn factory where i’ve been for almost 4 years.

I’m fit. Love working out. Thought about being a personal trainer but i’m not sure that’s a career more than another grind of low pay and trying to earn a living amassing clientele either via online or in person.

I’ve thought about potentially trying to become a police officer or a state cop.

I’ve thought about trying to get my CDL and the long term plan being getting a local job hauling fuel.

I’ve thought about trying to get an online accounting degree.

I’m just completely stuck.

Any time I have a day off it’s ALL I think about and I end up doing nothing about it.

The new work week starts and i’m finding myself stuck in my head all day just judging and hating my entire existence.

I don’t want to take on debt. I have enough cash to support me for maybe a year but also need a new car soon so that’ll eat into that.

I just can’t seem to figure out how to upskill as a student while having to work 50-60 hours for a job that takes everything out of me. And yet I don’t want to take on debt.

I’ve also considered nursing.

But again, schooling. And shit, I haven’t been a student and so long I don’t remember SHIT.

Nursing, Police Officer, Trucker, Personal Trainer.

Shit I’m so cooked it’s killing my soul.

I’m a single male - no dependents.

Work a humble factory job earning a modest salary in a LCOL area.

Learned about investing late in life. But I bought Monarch Money and am being a lot more intentional with personal finance now that i’m “awake” - because it really feels like i’ve woken up to * money * - or investing.

I have a company roth 401k in which I am putting roughly $250/month in (including company match) - $250 total (some months more depending on overtime), could be $300/month. All invested in FXAIX (Fidelity S&P500 fund).

I have a Roth IRA which I’m putting $400 a month into.

60% SWPPX ( Schwab S&P500 mutual fund)
30% SWISX ( Schwab international mutual fund)
10% SFENX ( Schwab emerging markets mutual fund - value - all they offered to automatically invest - Schwab requires mutual funds)

I’m also putting away $200 a month into a HYSA (Cit Bank) earning roughly 3.5%

Again, i’m LATE to the game, I know this.

Cash (HYSA & Checking) = $37,000 (gonna need a new car soon)

Retirement = $9,000

Total net worth = $46,000

No debt.

Working on increasing income and doing better career wise/financially.

Any more details or questions just ask, really looking for opinions/guidance. I feel shell shocked for being so financially illiterate and irresponsible for so long.

Just never learned about investing or the importance of financial health. Got lucky and went down a rabbit hole one day and it all hit me.

Thank you!

I have a few community colleges as well as highly rated private schools near me (eastern Ohio). Price varies. Can afford it.

But do I really wanna dish out the cash when I can go learn for free and have a guaranteed job?

Only worry for me is graduating from a private school or community college and then not having a job lined up, especially if i’m going to just have to work for a mega anyway being no one will hire someone with no experience for a local gig, let alone fuel gig (long term goal I think - though open to LTL or Linehaul. Cool with nights for a while too).

Thoughts??

EDIT ****

Also can any of you also comment on your experience with trucking and your own journey, i’m curious. The more detail the better!

I’m looking at momentum etfs:

Spmo, vfmo, fmtm, fdmo. Not sure which to pick. Some rebalance quarterly, some twice yearly, some every month. Being it’ll be in a brokerage maybe for tax and capital gains purposes momentum isn’t the way to go?

Also looking at QQQM, SCHG (growth/tech)

Also looking at GARP.

And of course, just fucking a s&p500 etf lol.

Any thoughts/advice?

Hello all, I just wanted to start some dialogue on what you all are thinking (looking to hear from more experienced investors).

I started investing seriously late in life around a year/year and a half ago.

I bought Intel (INTC) and SMH (semiconductor etf) and was up about 150% on each.

I sold all positions at a large profit for both.

Both of which were in my brokerage account.

I still DCA into my Roth IRA and Roth 401k no matter what (just holding index funds: s&p500, a little international and a little emerging).

My thing is, I do like investing in my brokerage for more shorter term plays 1-5 years but after my massive gains I find it hard to get back into the market right now.

When I first learned about investing which was literally like a year ago give or take, I remember reading something from a famous investor talking about one of the times to sell is when your thesis or original reason for getting in has changed OR if you ask if you’d still buy at current prices/valuations and if the answer is no, SELL.

So I did.

1. I just feel like - man - SpaceX revenues/earnings compared to its market cap valuation is bonkers
2. Almost nothing is “cheap” - you could argue memory stocks but nobody knows if memory is cyclical anymore or not with this AI shit
3. Which brings me to AI - we still don’t know how profitable this is going to be. It doesn’t seem like very much so except for the companies who sell the hardware/infrastructure - outside of that, I just can’t see a ROI and that’s slowly becoming understood.

I feel like at some point within a year there is going to be a massive correction. Being AI is propping up the entire market, I think when OpenAI goes public or Anthropic and we see financial reports that are so bad they’d make your momma cry, or the mag 7 declare they are cutting capex, or Nvida missing an earnings report, idk, I just feel like eventually the AI hype is going to have to deliver MASSIVELY and I just don’t see these LLMs being able to do so.

For me, I’m storing dry powder. I hate to try and time the market but I just think in the next year or so we are gonna see a big crash 25-40%.

I just read another report that the mag 7 earnings are HIGHLY inflated not due to their actual business models but due to their investments in OpenAI and Anthropic which I think have zero real moats and ZERO profits. They’re burning through cash. I think they both fail tbh. They don’t have the free cash to sustain themselves and the amount of money they need to keep this going when AI is simply not THAT profitable.

Thoughts?

Update****

I find it funny how any time someone posts anything about a potential bear market upcoming you get absolutely slaughtered (Reddit).

Meanwhile the greatest investor of all time is holding more cash than ever (Buffet) because he has specifically stated this very sentiment that I’m talking about.

If you invested in 2000 it would have taken you TWELVE years to start seeing any sort of returns (s&p500).

Yes, investing is a long term game.

No you can’t time the market.

You also can’t argue with logic. Logic being eventually the capex of ai spend is going to stop. Eventually AI is going to have to prove extremely profitable or it isn’t sustainable.

The largest market movers will have revenues cut in HALF (tsmc, amd, intel, broadcom, nvidia, hyperscalers)

They’re holding UP the entire market right now.

USA is 40,000,000,000,000.00 in debt.

FED is gonna raise rates.

Inflation is through the roof.

Gas, food, the average American is cutting CRUSHED.

Student loans. Credit cards. Debt debt debt.

The economy is NOT doing well.

The market is.

All on AI hopes and dreams.

Companies are trading as EXTREMELY high valuations.

What happens when Anthropic can’t get profitable?

OpenAI?

Wait until the next earnings season, or the next. Wait until hyperscalers announce capex cutting.

Wait until Nvidia misses an earnings report.

Just wait. We have been sitting in a circular jerk off bubble of financing that is all built on AI being some conscious entity when it’s a hallucinating pile of junk that costs insane amounts of resources to sustain.

ITS A BUBBLE.

There is zero debate.

The question is it gonna pop tomorrow or 2 years from now?

When it does, we are looking at 70% drawdowns in the top leaders today who get their entire revenues from AI buildout.

Then what’s left?

A crumbling middle class. A K shaped economy where everyone is simply hardly surviving and doing so on debt. (More hardship withdrawals from 401ks higher then EVER before).

Eventually we are going to have a reckoning. Maybe not tomorrow maybe not in 6 months, but eventually you can’t live on hopes and dreams.

In that case, i’ll be very glad to be holding LARGE piles of cash earning 4-4.5% a year. Thank you!

EDIT TO MY EDIT

THE ENGAGEMENT ALONE SHOWS HOW SUBCONSCIOUSLY AFRAID YOU ALL ARE THAT THE BUBBLE CASE IS REAL HAHAHA.

So many BULLS in the comments of REDDIT hahah yet some of the oldest most wise and experienced investors are ALL harping the same sentiment I am!!!

BOFA. Many hedge funds, financial analysts, venture capitalists, people who LIVE AND BREATHE investing and have DECADES of experience and knowledge from all walks of life are saying the same thing I am and you dumb twats are all on my ass. Get cooked. I can’t wait lmfao.

Like talking to a wall. Crash coming 2027. If not sooner. 😘

Forgive me if this is a stupid hypothetical that I hardly thought through but i’m just wondering?

So I listen to the AI bulls and the AI bears as well as everyone in between.

I have ZERO idea what is what - I just listen and read whatever I can and then try to stick to the facts.

I’m sure you all have heard of Ed Zitran he’s been calling the AI bubble for years and as of recently is become more and more popular even on mainstream news networks etc

Again, he’s not my ONLY source but he is A source.

To me it seems like the big question here is ROI on AI. According the Ed’s leaked financials of OpenAI it’s not looking too good for them as a company generating free cash flow. They’re highly unprofitable.

Seems like having an AI model isn’t really a moat, you have ChatGpt, Claude, Gemini, Microsoft has its own shit, Meta, open source models that are pretty good etc.

PERSONALLY, if AI/LLMs stopped all progress right here right NOW, I don’t see the technology going away. It’s here for good. Whether it’s a 5 trillion dollar technology or a 100 billion dollar technology is yet to be known.

OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO, I would imagine because the balance sheet is horrific.

Google has a stake in Anthropic similar to Microsofts stake in OpenAI.

If any LLM lab is going to prevail, i’d bet on Anthropic (which would be good for Google, right?)

If Anthropic AND OpenAI fail (being there is no real moat here and if AI isn’t as profitable as it needs to be for them to sustain their companies growth) that leaves a behemoth like Google who has massive cash flow, it’s own data centers (doesn’t have to buy compute from anyone like the LLM labs do), YouTube, Ad rev, Search and Gemini as well as quantum and waymo

-

Wouldn’t that be a bull case for Google 1-5 years from now?

TLDR version: Google has its own cash flow and profitable businesses, it can survive (and maybe thrive) if AI isn’t as profitable as companies thought, thus being one of the last AI labs standing and adding a moat and new cash flow river in Gemini when/IF LLM labs collapse?

I.e if the AI labs fail and the “bubble” bursts - Google is still Google. Wouldn’t the LLM labs going bankrupt just strengthen Googles Gemini model as a moat being they have the compute AND the AI tech plus MASSIVE cash flow?

Forgive me if this is a stupid hypothetical that I hardly thought through but i’m just wondering?

So I listen to the AI bulls and the AI bears as well as everyone in between.

I have ZERO idea what is what - I just listen and read whatever I can and then try to stick to the facts.

I’m sure you all have heard of Ed Zitran he’s been calling the AI bubble for years and as of recently is become more and more popular even on mainstream news networks etc

Again, he’s not my ONLY source but he is A source.

To me it seems like the big question here is ROI on AI. According the Ed’s leaked financials of OpenAI it’s not looking too good for them as a company generating free cash flow. They’re highly unprofitable.

Seems like having an AI model isn’t really a moat, you have ChatGpt, Claude, Gemini, Microsoft has its own shit, Meta, open source models that are pretty good etc.

PERSONALLY, if AI/LLMs stopped all progress right here right NOW, I don’t see the technology going away. It’s here for good. Whether it’s a 5 trillion dollar technology or a 100 billion dollar technology is yet to be known.

OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO, I would imagine because the balance sheet is horrific.

Google has a stake in Anthropic similar to Microsofts stake in OpenAI.

If any LLM lab is going to prevail, i’d bet on Anthropic (which would be good for Google, right?)

If Anthropic AND OpenAI fail (being there is no real moat here and if AI isn’t as profitable as it needs to be for them to sustain their companies growth) that leaves a behemoth like Google who has massive cash flow, it’s own data centers (doesn’t have to buy compute from anyone like the LLM labs do), YouTube, Ad rev, Search and Gemini as well as quantum and waymo

-

Wouldn’t that be a bull case for Google 1-5 years from now?

TLDR version: Google has its own cash flow and profitable businesses, it can survive (and maybe thrive) if AI isn’t as profitable as companies thought, thus being one of the last AI labs standing and adding a moat and new cash flow river in Gemini when/IF LLM labs collapse?

I.e if the AI labs fail and the “bubble” bursts - Google is still Google. Wouldn’t the LLM labs going bankrupt just strengthen Googles Gemini model as a moat being they have the compute AND the AI tech plus MASSIVE cash flow?

I genuinely am worried for like - literally everyone I know.

I come from the midwest if that’s relevant, blue collar pretty low to middle class environment I guess.

Despite my own anecdotal surroundings, I see highly accredited institutions releasing statistical information about the average working adults in the United States and the numbers do not look good.

-The amount of people living paycheck to paycheck.
-The amount with ludicrous amounts of debt, be it student loans, credit cards, personal loans, vehicles etc
-The amount that lack any savings whatsoever

I know us personal finance nerds who can’t get enough of this shit are like “omg i’m 25 and only have $200,000 in my retirement accounts am I gonna be okay?!” LOL

But genuinely, like, I have only recently digested the importance of a disciplined financial plan, I have no children or wife and have made great headway in this short period of learning to manage finances on a modest salary.

But I see people older than I (32) or with far greater financial burdens or just simply ignorant (not insulting them just genuinely mean uneducated or unaware) with $50,000 car loans on a $40k salary. Or unmarried with multiple children certainly just surviving.

I mean, these seems more like the norm than the outlier situation!

From statistical data and just like random YouTube interviews shows on personal finance, the average person seems very very VERY far behind or not in the race at all.

I really worry for my fellow humans that this is going to be a catastrophe come 30 years from now.

DRAM. SMH. Etc…

I just - every time I open my phone it seems like SMH is up another $100 lmfao.

Then I check dram, 10% here, 8% there. It’s fucking insanity.

Personally I love easy money. Been a long time investor in SMH (not so much memory/dram).

With that said, EVENTUALLY (idk when), this semiconductor AI boom HAS to end (in my humble opinion).

I listen to A LOT of podcasts on AI and honestly there is no refuting that this isn’t sustainable. The capex isn’t sustainable which is funding the semis/memory, the revenue to profit ratio isn’t sustainable (openai, anthropic).

If AI doesn’t show a ROI all this COLLAPSES.

That is if in each earnings quarter and IPO (anthr, openai) if capex spending slows, or the filings show a massive loss to earnings ratio - this shit goes POOF - FAST,

Like, FAST FAST.

I’m a big listener to Ed Zitran (who leaked openai’s financials recently) and the man knows his shit. Beside from him, it just doesn’t seem like the tech is actually bringing in the revenue it needs to justify such crazy valuations we are seeing.

This isn’t sustainable. Nor is it even profitable or that game changing in terms of profitability which is all that is gonna matter when the dust settles.

Companies can trade at 150x forward earnings based on wishful thinking for a while but eventually the numbers are gonna present themselves and as soon as they show a chink in their armor, one quarter, two quarters, three quarters - these AI infrastructure stocks and memory stocks are going to be cut in HALF if not more.

I’m a 32 year old male in the Midwest, just have my highschool diploma.

I work at a factory. It’s unionized but a very toxic environment.

Don’t hate my job, don’t love it.

It’s just a massive dead end.

I feel like i’m gonna blink and wake up at 65 just tired and broken still working here.

Trying to figure out a new path.

No kids. No wife. Just me. Willing to sacrifice. Only thing is I really don’t want to go into debt but it seems like the only viable option to get into a new field.

Nursing. Military. Trades.

I don’t know. Should have figured this out sooner but I come from a terrible childhood and really got myself together. No drugs. No alcohol. All I do is workout and work and save money. But it’s not a life.

I feel myself getting older, the body aging. A lot of miles on me from years and years of heavy gym life lol.

Just feel like I’m spinning my wheels, every week I rack my brain trying to think of a new way out, then I end up doing the same shit.

3 workout sessions a week. 6 working days. Well over 60+ hours of “work” a week.

Bad part is my income isn’t that great. I make hardly $20 hour, but get lots of OT so maybe gross like 50-60k? MAYBE.

I need a way out.

I’m passionate and interested in everything.

I used to code (glad I quit that i’d never get hired self taught).

Used to be a realism artist and got really good.

Used to be OBSESSED with nutrition and fitness.

I just don’t know where to go now. At 32 money has basically been my only obsession in life.

Investing. Maxing my Roth IRA, putting as much as I can in a HYSA, 401k.

I just woke up and realized all my life I didn’t care about career or money until idk what happened? I got educated? Not even by choice, then by choice.

Just looking for people who have found a way into a good honorable life and career. Just felt like reaching out because I’m continually coming up with nothing - maybe looking for success stories to motivate me finally pulling the trigger…

So i’m a working class man in his early 30’s.

I started investing seriously about a year ago. My income isn’t great, about average, but my expenses are low and i’ve become very disciplined and focused on building up a portfolio because I had an epiphany that basically i’ve been NOT focusing on wealth building at all.

After becoming quite fascinated by the stock market, gold, bitcoin and just simply the history of money and economics (i’m still trying to learn and understand) i’ve become more open to owning assets like gold, bitcoin, equities and bonds in a more diversified setting.

I recently watched a 4 hour documentary called The Ascent of Money - based on the book.

And suddenly I have this urge to try and save up and buy a 10oz gold bar.

I think it’s a combination of our GDP now equaling our debt. Our interest on our debt being more than our military spending. Inflation rising out of control. The speculation of cryptocurrency and just the overall question of what the hell even IS money.

Gold seems to still be better than bitcoin in my opinion. It just makes more sense.

I was thinking about just diversifying into a GLD ETF but I kind of just want to buy a 10oz gold bar, store in a safety deposit box or a very secure place and just always have that as SOMETHING to fall back on that is ACTUALLY valuable.

Thoughts?

I’ve had massive returns on SMH and INTC over the last x amount of months.

I’m currently watching a documentary on the dot com bubble.

I see a lot of similarities but also a lot of pretty poignant differences.

Marvell and Dell are going to post their earnings this coming week - relevant because i’ve been trying to closely monitor the AI trade and these 2 seem to be the last reporting companies for last quarter’s earnings in regards to the AI trade.

As of the last hyper-scalers earnings reports all of which seemed to show that AI CAPEX was proving to be profitable as most if not all posted large beats and massive revenue, much of which coming from cloud (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) and advertising (Meta).

Most of them even INCREASED this CAPEX forecast - so the ‘picks and shovels’ ($SMH) should still be posting record revenues.

Nvidia just posted their earnings, again, MASSIVE beat, margin and revenue growth.

TSMC and AMD CEO as well as many analysts are very bullish on CPU demand, semiconductor demand often hearing things like CPU demand doubling YOY or crazy shit like that.

You also hear semiconductor demand becoming a multi-trillion dollar industry (I’m paraphrasing, but basically just very parabolic hyperbole that may not be hyperbole at all).

You have Elon Musk shooting for the stars (literally.) and also talking about collaborating with Intel on this Terafab project which is going to be like a chip-making foundry on steroids.

You have physical AI, robotics, autonomous vehicles and semi trucks, LLM’s, visual recognition software and the entire umbrella of what AI could possibly achieve/not achieve.

You have consumer sentiment at an all time low, people seem to generally hate AI which is fine but I find that people seem to automatically hate AI because it is a direct threat to human creativity or their livelihoods.

Historically, any new technology threatening to displace humans was obviously met with resistance and backlash, that is hyper inflated by the connectedness of people today via social media and access to information.

On one hand I see companies profiting like mad and investing like mad on AI - I see extremely intelligent people from all various walks of life that are EXTREMELY bullish on AI and robotics.

On the other hand I see people almost completely dismissing the technology and basically saying that this is all a pipe dream. An advanced auto-complete.

Hard to find an in-between.

I see people saying they’re being forced to adopt AI and use tokens and that token spend is more of a cost than just hiring a human.

I see headlines saying Anthropic is like 10x’ing their revenue every 2 damn seconds (joking - but they’re growing exponentially).

I see Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI all talking about going public - all of which in some way shape or form in this massive race of AI and futuristic racing towards science fiction level goals.

As a retail investor it’s really hard to get a thumb on the pulse of what “AI” is actually going to become.

As an investor i’m trying to be a diligent investor and stay informed - especially with my holdings in SMH and INTC.

In my heart, I agree with many of the bullish analysts who say things like “we are in the 3rd inning with a man on 2nd” - using a baseball analogy to where we are currently in the timeline of AI.

I see a lot of fear and greed in the market.

Makes you wonder how much the semiconductor space can grow and if it really can continue this massive exponential run.

Makes you wonder when these hyper-scalers are going to pull back on CAPEX spend (though they seem to not be slowing down).

Meanwhile I hear data centers are being abandoned.

Bottlenecks.

A bubble.

It’s an exciting time to be an investor but also very overwhelming.

Personally, I enjoy a little volatility and risk. Hence why i’m not all in on a simple index fund like the s&p. (I’m in it, but i’m also playing the AI trade like many other investors).

It does seem like everywhere you look in the market everything is overvalued, but yet earnings keep rising and the market is continuously proving to be resilient despite all the daily headlines of chaos.

I’m wondering if I should trim my positions in things like SMH and Intel but both the etf and companies inside that etf as well as Intel I truly believe are positioned amazingly to continue to benefit from this AI circus lol.

Intel is on par to compete with TSMC by 2029 with both companies starting production of 1.4nm chip technology around the same time.

Intel is positioned to provide CPU’s in an agentic landscape where cpu’s are 1:1 or even 4:1 now.

Intel is in talks with Elon for the Terafab project.

Preliminary deals have been made with Apple for its chips.

Intel offers top tier advanced packaging.

I won’t even go into the behemoths inside of the SMH etf and the moats that they have.

I’m just wondering what you all think.

I have a significant % of my net worth in these two investments alone.

I feel like deep down that this is only getting started.

That we are in very early stages and there is a lot of money being thrown around and a giant learning curve before all of this is perfected and we finally realize the return on this AI investment.

I feel like Intel and the companies within SMH as well as the MAG 7 are going to continue to carry the market - because that is largely been what has been happening - the AI trade has been propping up the entire equities market.

It seems like each month there is a new fear based headline and then continuously, despite volatility, these chip companies just continue to prosper.

Makes you wonder when or if it’s going to collapse or if this really is the 3rd inning of a 9 inning game?

Hey guys and gals - i’m new to investing (like roughly a year in now).

I’ve been reading and trying to educate myself as best as possible on personal finance and have gotten really really lucky with the market.

Lucky as in I in no way shape or form want to believe that because I got lucky, means i’m Warren Buffet lol.

I invested in SMH and INTC pretty early, where both of my gains for both are well over 100% + within my brokerage account.

Within the last year I managed to get my net worth to around $45,000 - basically starting from 0.

I work a humble factory job. No college education. Just grinding from the bottom up with a very modest hourly wage.

Nonetheless, I managed to get to $45,000. Which to me feels absolutely surreal, though I know it’s not much.

I’m trying to get to $100,000 as fast as possible and just wanted to talk to some people much more educated than myself.

As I said, I kind of lucked out on a high risk play being Intel stock and SMH etf investments which have really skyrocketed.

I still believe in those investments but I do feel like i’m being irresponsible by not realizing the gains (especially them both being like 110%+).

I believe AI and the like is going to be a multi year boom still but I was also thinking:

So, a HYSA for example, mine currently pays 3.75% APY per year. So on $100,000 that’s almost $4k (pre tax) a year.

This got me thinking, the more money you have the more you can make. I mean it’s obvious but again I’m relatively new to this.

It just made me think about people who were “given a small loan of $1mil” and how that spread around in safe HYSA could generate $40k a year (pre tax).

Now imagine 2mil, 5mil.

If you could live comfortably on say $50k, hypothetically couldn’t you just park like 1-2 million in a HYSA and just ALWAYS be okay financially (if you lived comfortably on 50k or whatever).

For me, someone who can survive on $25k a year comfortably, it seems to crazy to know people are out here with tens if not hundreds of millions of assets.

I think about $100,000 in a HYSA and having a pretax yearly “bonus” of $4,000 every year seems so crazy.

I think about how every X amount of years you need a new vehicle and how simply the interest from $100,000 at 3-4% a year could realistically fund your new car every 5-8 years - or whatever.

Am I thinking about this wrong?

I just never had this much money before (again I know it’s not a lot to most) but I worked really really freaking hard to get here and i’m just thinking out loud about how I can best manage my money going forward and also coming to the realization that it takes money to make money and how crazy it is that people have millions of dollars - BILLIONS, even.

And just how simply having $100,000 in a HYSA fund your vehicle purchases for the rest of your life without ever touching the principal with virtually ZERO risk (assuming it’s FDIC insured which my bank is).

I’m not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice.

Ok - that’s out of the way.

Listen, most price targets are around 90-100$.

Intel just had a HISTORICAL run up - this shit DOESNT happen.

Understand that.

Draw downs are part of the game ESPECIALLY after such MASSIVE gains.

Most of us a few weeks ago were begging for $100 now were all bummed it’s sitting around $115 LOLOL.

If you could go back a few weeks you WISH you could buy more shares.

The same thing is gonna happen in the future.

Lip Bu isn’t playing games. Trump isn’t playing games.

Apple, Google, TeslaXSpacex, CPU demand, USA foundry services.

In my opinion unless headlines change for Intel (like new news coming out about deals WITH specifics) Intel could likely drop to 100, 90, shit even 85 if some AI scare happens. This is normal volatility for tech stocks and specifically sectors like semiconductors.

All the hyperscalers had massive growth in their earnings with STRONG forward guidance and INCREASED capex spend.

This benefits Intel.

You have to keep in mind, Intel just had a crazy rally. For it to pop again were gonna need either A. strong earnings reports (months away) or B headlines about new deals or specifics regarding the the news of the latest one.

In my opinion I think (and Intel has said) that these next 3 quarters are going to be BULLISH for Intel.

They specifically said the second half and end of 2026 is where they expect a lot of foundry agreements and the like.

I also think similar to Intel’s last bullish earnings they are going to replicate AMD whose stock went up like 20-30% after earnings citing CPU demand.

Remember, Lip Bu “under promises and over delivers”.

In my mind, were gonna have to wait to Q2 earnings and guidance, Q3 earnings and guidance, and Q4.

There are reports Intel is already beginning working on production of chips for Apple with 18a which will show up in revenue in later quarters.

I think DCAing into INTC from now til next earnings is wise. Because it may go parabolic AGAIN when they report and blow expectations out of the water AGAIN.

Also remember, NVIDIA reports earnings next week, the 20th. Look for earnings growth and forward guidance on chips. Bullish for Intel as well especially being a large % of the SMH etf.

Also remember, the day before Intel reports earnings Lip Bu is speaking at the investors conference on the 19th I believe it is. 19th or 20th - look it up, mark your calendars as we may get more clarity on what’s going on that’ll make headlines.

Either way. Semis have had a MASSIVE run recently. People are afraid things are overbought which is rational and wise. But a lot of analysts are saying that this is still very early innings and this is a multi year buildout with agentic AI and cpu demand.

AMD ceo said the same thing.

Hold on. Don’t get scared. Scared money don’t make money. Manage your risk to what you are able but me personally i’m DCAing into INTC all the way up until this next earnings report then reevaluating. My entire soul thinks they’re gonna blow the lid off earnings.

In their last report they said supply was limited and they missed out on BILLIONS of revenue to which they said was being mitigated especially in the 2nd half of 2026.

Do what you will. But I’m all in on Intel for the foreseeable future.

Good luck!

I already told myself at ATH that no matter what i’m not selling until 2030. It is fun to watch people lose their minds on a stock that has 5x’d in like 6 months slowly get trimmed.

I think each earnings report this year is just going to get significantly better. New highs will be made.

I was a hobbyist front-end developer a few years back. Basically just doing front end web development stuff and self-learning. Ever since I have become extremely fascinated with AI and tech.

As someone who isn’t really using AI in enterprise or professionally it seems very difficult to get a gauge on what exactly this tech was, is, and could become.

I play around with ChatGPT, Grok and now Claude.

Honestly, for what I use it for (news, stock market info, analysis of stocks, simple chatting) i’m very impressed.

I have to double check or feed it correct data sometimes but usually it’s pretty solid. It can break down stocks and analyze them from a financial analysts perspective and tell me what different stats mean and then create graphs and visuals explaining different changes.

I even tried testing it with a photo of myself and I was really surprised how it was able to answer questions about the things in the photo, identifying tattoos, my necklace and pendant, what was going on behind me, the material of my gloves and all kinds of different things.

I hear so much negativity on Reddit.

Some say it’s AI slop, can’t handle large code bases, is all hype, a bubble, never gonna replace a person, companies are just forcing it to make profit, so on and so forth.

Then I see bulls all the way from computer scientists, highly credentialed people, highly accomplished and intelligent people saying it’s going to lead to AGI, replace humans, basically take over and transform the entire economy blah blah.

Seems like it’s hard to find a real gauge of what this technology actually is.

I mean, simply asking it questions about a visual image and being able to identify and answer questions on that image with 100% accuracy and awareness seems like that alone could be used to transform so many things.

But idk. I’m not an expert.

I’m just curious what people think, is this a bubble that is going to collapse? Or is this actually the transformative technological revolution that so many experts claim it is?

I mean, companies are spending hundreds of billions if not trillions in the future and it’s hard to believe it’s all on just AI slop useless junk?

Listen, I see a lot of people coming in here asking about investing in Intel and getting serious FOMO.

I’m not a financial analyst. But there are certain metrics analysts use to decide whether or not a company’s stock is overvalued, undervalued or fair.

Intel had a STRONG earnings beat on their last report.

Musk and Space X and Tesla are seemingly taking steps to work with Intel for his Terafab project, he even recently visited and made a tweet yesterday re-confirming what was already said (though details are still muddy).

Apple and INTC had been in rumored talks for over a year. Just yesterday they signed a “preliminary agreement” to work together.

Trump and this administration invested in INTC as well as Nvidia and Google also has some dealings with INTC.

CPU demand, Intels wheelhouse, is rising where this AI buildout required like 8:1 GPU’s to CPU’s, it now seems to be 4:1 or even 1:1, raising the demand for GPU’s.

According to AMD CEO - this is going to continue and he explosive (CPU demand).

Intel is pricing in A LOT of very murky and muddy news headlines without a lot of clarity on what they mean.

Investing is risky. Investing in ONE company is risky.

But do you own research and decide and don’t get paper hands if things correct. You’re not going to see upside if you’re constantly selling out off downturns and volatility.

We are in the AI revolution. Or as naysayers may call it, the AI BUBBLE.

Nobody knows what the future holds.

Intel could pull off its 14a technology, become a massive TSMC rival, make a deal with Elon, Apple, Google and become one of the top Semiconductor and CPU companies in the world.

The turnaround is just beginning and the CPU demand and Apple deal and Trump backing and Nvidia investment are all signs of a significant backing of this American tech company.

But war could escalate with Iran. Hyperscalers could cut CAPEX on AI.

WHO KNOWS.

Intel could be a 5 trillion dollar company in a decade.
Intel could also be a 500 billion dollar company in a decade.

After recent earnings reports from the MAG 5, AI DOES seem to be paying off for these hyperscalers.

AI and robotics and self driving cars could be the future, ALL benefitting Intel. Nobody knows.

As someone who is an investor in Intel, I would be lying if I didn’t say that Intels FORWARD PE is trading at 126-158x. The s&p is around 18-22x, high growth tech companies trade at 30-50x, Intel is at like DOUBLE that.

It’s a turnaround story. With MASSIVE potential here and a lot of news and numbers showing POSITIVE signs.

So right now the market is pricing Intel for what it could be. As most investing is FORWARD looking.

Now if Intel delivers. There is no reason it can’t go to $200/share or significantly higher depending on your period of holding. TSMC has over 2 trillion in market cap, that would put Intel at $400/share.

There is a lot of good news and this AI buildout doesn’t seem to be slowing.

Imagine if this train, as volatile as it is, DOESNT slow.

Imagine Elon does try to work with Intel to manufacture chips at a MASSIVE scale? Imagine if APPLE DOES make Intel its leading iphone chip supplier (we still don’t know the details). Imagine if the government continues to BACK American made chips (Intel being the only player).

Is a 2 trillion $ marketcap and $400 share price unrealistic?

Maybe not.

But there is a LONG road ahead and nothing goes up in a straight line forever. The question is are you open to volatility and risk.

1, 3, 5, 10 years from now, is Intel going to be the powerhouse supplier of American made chips powering robotics and AI and CPU’s and advanced packaging?

A behemoth tech giant turn around worth trillions of dollars?

Who knows.

Should you buy now or wait for a pullback?

Who knows.

Timing the market is impossible.

Apple could come out tomorrow and announce that Intel is going to be their main supplier of iPhone chips from here on out. Meaning Intel will benefit from all iphone sales each year for eternity.

Apple could cancel the deal entirely.

Apple could say maybe it’s just gonna be their low end chips M series chips or whatever.

This Elon Terafab could absolutely be a pipe dream.

Or Elons crazy ass could actually do it ALL with Intel: space exploration, robotics, AI, self driving cars.

Nobody knows.

Fun and exciting times though.

For me listening to AMD’s CEO talk about CPU demand is really making me think that this year is going to be extremely bullish for Intel quarter to quarter.

If INTC’s recent earnings made AMD spike I wouldn’t be surprised if AMD has an effect on INTC stock - gonna have to watch for CPU demand and what they say!