u/tpkm216

Aus vs Egypt R16, Saturday 4 July. Match Challenge on TribePicks — pick the result, 30 seconds → tribepicks.com/match/mt-ausegypt

Curious what r/socceroos calls vs the broader crowd. Sub called Turkey right (only 29% of the crowd did) — post-match I'll pull the split.

https://preview.redd.it/omxd2l590zah1.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcadfc8804e44da12d3415a0462c2d48a0fee6a5

honestly had us gone after the USA game so just stoked we're still here.

Salah's the obvious worry, if he's fully fit it could be a long night. but Egypt haven't looked amazing either, that Iran draw was pretty flat. feels like a tight 1-0 or one of those 1-1 into pens jobs.

what's everyone calling it? i've got us 2-1 but my tips have been rubbish all tournament so ignore me 😂

Pleasantly surprised how North American football commentators have come a long way..used to be a time when you are better off muting

Quick one for r/SkySports_Football

The data drops I've been posting since kick-off come from the free bracket comp on TribePicks. It locks Sunday 28 June, 19:00 UTC.

Pre-tournament, the UK consensus was:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England SF+: 41% of brackets

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England champion: 7% (the most-predicted "England loses the final" is Spain beats England — 51 brackets called it)

Bright opening win, then a frustrating 0-0 with a well-drilled Ghana — Kane skied a late sitter with the goal gaping. Unreal! The issue is that at the WC you wont get a dozen of the opportunities. Its not the Bundesliga! The crowd's still backing England to top the group (64% have them past Panama), but that goalless draw's quietly taken the shine off the deep-run conviction.

A few things worth thinking about before lock:

1. England champion = 12 pts on its own. Single biggest pick in the comp. Wrong pick = 0 (no penalty). Champion crashes out? You keep every point banked from earlier rounds.

2. The "Spain beats England" final is the most-predicted England-related final pairing (51 brackets). If you don't back that, you're already contrarian — and the contrarian angle on England has paid before.

3. The most-likely England exit round in the brackets is the SF (179 brackets, 23.4%). Lock in your view of where the Three Lions actually go out — quarter, semi, final, or trophy.

Quick data drop for r/FootballAfrica.

Been collecting bracket predictions for WC2026 since 14 May. As of the latest snapshot (891 completed brackets), here's where the crowd had African teams reaching the semi-finals or better:

🇲🇦 Morocco: **5.3%** (47 brackets) — 9th overall, only non-European/non-CONMEBOL team in the top 10

🇸🇳 Senegal: **0.8%** (7 brackets)

🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire: 3 brackets

🇬🇭 Ghana: 3 brackets

🇹🇳 Tunisia: 3 brackets

🇩🇿 Algeria: 1 bracket

Then Morocco drew 1-1 with Brazil last week. Held the 5x World Cup champions. **The numbers above are about to look very different in the next data refresh.**

A few things worth thinking about before bracket lock on **Sunday 28 June, 19:00 UTC**:

1. **Backing an African team to win it = 12 pts on its own.** The biggest single-pick reward in the comp. Wrong pick = 0 (no penalty). Champion crashes out? You keep every point you've already banked.

2. **AFCON form ≠ bracket data.** Côte d'Ivoire won AFCON 2023 at home and are sitting at 3 SF brackets. The global crowd has historically been late to price in CAF form — and the data is a snapshot, not a prediction.

3. **Morocco's pattern is locking in.** 64% backed them vs Brazil, 58% backing them vs Scotland. The crowd believes in the Atlas Lions for the third match running. Worth deciding before lock whether you're with the crowd or against.

Two questions worth opening up:

- Which CAF team is most underrated in this data?

- If you back one to lift the trophy, which one (12 pts on the line)?

If you've got 2 mins → tribepicks.com/bracket

The data drops I've been posting through the group stage come from a free bracket comp on TribePicks. **It locks Sunday 28 June, 19:00 UTC** (first R32 kick-off).

If you back Morocco to lift the trophy, that single pick = **12 pts**. The biggest single-pick reward in the comp. And if you back us to reach the QF (and we deliver), that's another 4 pts. Reach the SF, 8 more.

A few things that make this bracket different: 

1. **Wrong pick = 0. No penalty.** Pick Morocco to win it. Worst case: 0 from that pick. Best case: 12 + every round you correctly call before it.

2. **Champion crashes out? You keep every point you've banked.** So if you pick Morocco champion and we go out in QFs, you still keep the SF, R16, R32 picks you got right.

3. **No new account** — email + 6-digit code.

The pre-tournament data had us 9th overall in SF picks (5.3%). After the 1-1 vs Brazil + the Scotland test, that's about to look very different in the next data refresh.

I'll share the stats collected worldwide here once everyone's voiced their opinions

Quick retro from the founder side.

Built and shipped the Bracket Challenge on TribePicks in 7 days flat. Predict the whole WC2026 knockout bracket (R32 → Final + 3rd-place playoff) in 2 minutes. Free, no sign-up wall, scores points all tournament.

Three design calls that turned out to matter more than I expected:

1. **The bracket IS the product, not the on-ramp.** Original front door was "Sign up to create a comp." Conversion was slow. We made the bracket-pick the front door (no signup needed to start). **Conversion went up ~3×.** Lowest-friction valuable thing should be the door, not your highest-converting funnel CTA.

2. **Wrong pick = 0, no penalty.** Most bracket comps deduct for wrong picks. We don't. You only ever go up. Combined with "keep every point banked even if your champion crashes out" — it's the de-risked bracket. People who'd never enter a "real" comp will play this one.

3. **Email + 6-digit code, not full signup.** No password, no profile setup. The friction-saving compounds — every drop-off step we removed showed up in completion rate.

Brackets lock **Sunday 28 June 19:00 UTC.** If you want to try the actual product: tribepicks.com/bracket

What's the call you'd push back on? The "no penalty" rule especially — does it kill seriousness, or does it make the comp playable for casuals who'd otherwise bounce?

772 hinchas predijeron Paraguay-Turquía antes del partido:

🇹🇷 Turquía gana: 50% (387)

⚖️ Empate: 27% (209)

🇵🇾 Paraguay: 23% (176) — ganamos con 10

Después del 1-4 contra USA, la multitud nos descontó completamente. Turquía fue favorita 2-a-1. Ganamos igual. Con un hombre menos.

Tercer upset de underdog del Mundial:

- 🇦🇺 Australia ganó 2-0 a Turquía — solo 29% los respaldaba

- 🇵🇾 Paraguay ganó a Turquía con 10 — solo 23% nos respaldaba

Primer Mundial en 16 años (desde Sudáfrica 2010). El equipo está respondiendo.

¿Qué dice la sub — resurgimiento real o pura suerte? 

Hot on the heels of the Turkey upset.

772 fans have predicted the USA match (Lumen Field, Seattle, 20 June):

🇺🇸 USA win: 54% (417)

⚖️ Draw: 22% (170)

🇦🇺 Australia: 24% (185)

Sound familiar? Pre-Turkey, only 29% backed us. We won 2-0. Now the same crowd has socceroos at 24% against the USA.

Here's the kicker: of the 259 fans who CORRECTLY called the Turkey upset, 41% back us to beat the USA too.

https://preview.redd.it/8dhf9tfqga8h1.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eae70952c890277b34a7f1dc7d64964121c19c1

Quick data drop ahead of tomorrow :

760 fans have predicted USA v Australia:

🇺🇸 USA win: 52.1% (396)

⚖️ Draw: 23.3% (177)

🇦🇺 Australia: 24.6% (187)

Crowd backs us — but only by 2-to-1.

Context — what just happened in First match of the WC:

🇺🇸 USA 4-1 Paraguay. 57% backed the win. Crowd called it. Pulisic clinical.

🇦🇺 Aus 2-0 Turkey. Only **29% backed Straya. 71% of brackets just cracked.

So same crowd that nailed USA-Paraguay completely whiffed on Aus-Turkey. Tomorrow's 52% USA backing has to survive that track record.

https://preview.redd.it/hzfv9w6so48h1.png?width=792&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1df72af15274ce3c6fdf228d3e3399514652edb

Quick data drop. 891 fans called WC 2026 in full. Uzbekistan's first ever World Cup — here's where the crowd has you:

AFC pecking order, as the crowd sees it (% clearing group stage):

🇯🇵 Japan: 90% 🇰🇷 South Korea: 87% 🇮🇷 Iran: 58% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 51% 🇦🇺 Australia: 42% 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: 16% 🇯🇴 Jordan: 15%

So the crowd has you 6th of 7 AFC nations, barely ahead of Jordan, well behind every team with WC experience. First-tournament tax.

But — Australia were backed at only 29% to win their opener. They just beat Turkey 2-0. The fans who fade debutants get caught out.

Two reads:

1. Crowd's right. First WC, no tournament pedigree, untested at this level. 16% is fair for a debutant. We've never seen Uzbekistan in the deep end.
2. Crowd's wrong. Khusanov anchoring at Lens, Shomurodov scoring at Roma, Fayzullaev the breakout of AFC qualifying. Best squad you've ever fielded. The 16% who backed you look smart by week 2.

What does the sub call — historic group exit, or the underdog story of the tournament?

Quick retro for r/socceroos.

888 fans predicted the Turkey opener before kick-off:

https://preview.redd.it/fouc5rswuy7h1.png?width=2250&format=png&auto=webp&s=d70baa57d5d84733e29111f4b6fcdee7f54fe4de

🇹🇷 Turkey win: **45.2%** (401 of 888)

⚖️ Draw: **25.7%** (228)

🇦🇺 **Australia: 29.2%** (259) ← we won 2-0

Yes — only 29% of fans had us winning the match we just won 2-0. 71% of brackets cracked tonight.

Bonus data: 690 fans have already predicted USA v Aus next:

🇺🇸 USA win: **50.4%**

⚖️ Draw: 24.5%

🇦🇺 Australia win: **25.1%**

Even after the upset, the crowd still fades us 2-to-1 against USA. **But the 259 smart-money fans who called the Turkey result?** 41% of them have Australia winning the USA game. They're seeing what nobody else is.

Two reads:=

1. **Smart money is on us.** The fans who called Turkey are now the most-bullish on us beating USA. They saw the squad before everyone else.
2. **One result, no pattern.** The 71% who got Turkey wrong are back at it for USA — only this time we're up against the host nation, peak Pulisic, home crowd. The fade has actual basis.

Who's the sub trust — the Turkey-correct fans backing us, or the broader crowd still on USA?