r/ISRO

This week was probably the most eventful in space equities since I started covering the sector. Full breakdown below.

RKLB +34%
Record $200M quarter, up 63% YoY. Four analyst raises in one session. TD Cowen now at $120.

HawkEye 360 (HAWK) IPO
New space stock worth knowing about. RF signals intelligence — detects radio emissions from ships, aircraft and military assets globally. Profitable at IPO, 80% gross margins, $302M backlog. Closed +30% day one.

ASTS
BlueBird 7 fallout ongoing but mid-June Falcon 9 launch confirmed for satellites 8-10. Earnings Monday — most important call in the sector right now.

SpaceX IPO
S-1 expected late May. Every space stock is being repriced around it.

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The announcement in August was that ISRO will step back from routine launch vehicle production and move fully to R&D, deep space and the harder problems, with 120 technologies transferred out to industry.

The case for it is strong and I mostly buy it. ISRO's scientists spending their careers running a production line for a vehicle whose design was frozen decades ago is a waste of the country's best engineers. NASA did a version of this and the result was a launch cost collapse that nobody inside NASA would have achieved. If private industry can build the workhorse, ISRO gets to work on the things only a national agency will fund.

The case against, which I have not seen answered properly anywhere.

One, the technology was developed with public money over fifty years and is being handed to private balance sheets. What does the state get back other than a cheaper invoice later.

Two, NASA's version worked because there was a market with multiple buyers. For most Indian launch demand the government is still the customer, so you may just be converting a public monopoly into a private one with a procurement contract attached.

Three, there are roughly 440 space startups in the country and only about 18 authorised operators. The gap between those two numbers is where this either works or turns into a decade of consolidation.

For people actually working in the sector, is the handover going smoothly on the ground???