u/Im_a_hamburger

[posted from the galactic war table on r/helldivers]

The moment we saw cyborg movement we should have orbital blockaded Choohe, the obvious staging ground. No matter, this level of strategy in this little reaction time is rare.

Matar Bay is a critical point. The first city is all but guaranteed to be liberated. If the other is liberated towards the end of the battle (it only unlocks with 12 hours 6 minutes left and is a city) giving us 40% total, meaning we need 1.35 million damage. That requires an estimated 43.3% of the playerbase. If we can get eagle storm activated, preferably once Parrhesia opens, this goes down to 28.9%

Parrhesia, a near requirement to win, which requires 51.6% of the playerbase to capture without Eagle storm. Not happening. With full Eagle storm this goes down to 17.2%. That being said city operations typically seem to outperform expectations based okay rural fights (which my math is based on)

How will this impact the MO? Well we need to deal 2.836 million over 69h10m, which requires 4.1%/h which is 42.4% of the playerbase, totaling 85.7% to win both without eaglestorm, or 71.3% with Eagle Storm. Which is close to the 66.8% we have in the MO right now.

I cannot stress the criticality of Matar Bay. The Martale effort is worthless if Matar Bay falls. It simultaneously will siege Charon Prime and allow capture of Aesir Pass to siege the automaton stronghold of Marfark, which together further isolates X45+vega triple siege.

The capture of Yed Prior can be delayed to post-MO. If not we will almost certainly loose either Martar Bay or Blistica. The goal ends 77 hours post-MO. If we don’t engage until then we need only 2.3%/h pre regen, requiring just 25% of the playerbase. This is the only route to do all 3 goals before thier deadline.