![[Charania] Free agent guard Pat Spencer has agreed to a two-way NBA contract with the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN.](https://external-preview.redd.it/ZlAJdWBD9JBpSS1E8m0k_60sDs0cH5bnPbkPd4lGzMo.png?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=5cd9a0d93ea9b77d0879020bc291f5b7c23b82d1)
Free agent guard Pat Spencer has agreed to a two-way NBA contract with the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN. Spencer's role grew across three seasons in Golden State, where he averaged 7.2 points and 18.6 minutes last season.
https://www.espn.com/contributor/shams-charania/ec39096717f0a
Now I’m going to preface this by saying I personally think this is a terrible trade. I have been critical of Jaylen Brown in the past but also Paul George is fucking 36. Note I will comment on brown more but that is because I am more familiar with his game as a celtics fan.
Here is Brown’s boxscore from this year. Note Brown had the 7th highest Usage of all time this season.
For this post I will use TS% data from dunksandthrees.com as it uses possession data instead of estimation.
Brown had a TS% of 57.5 this season placing him in the 49th percentile
From Databallr
Brown is an above average creator and in transition but below average in other places
https://databallr.com/zts
This is a playtype adjusted True Shooting found on Databallr.
Brown has a +1.3 ZTS%
These are the tracked defensive numbers they are per 75 possessions via Databallr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_Plus_Minus
Regularized adjusted plus minus is the basis of modern stats. It uses raw plus minus data and adjusts for teammate and opponent strength and other things such as the rubber band effect.
https://www.nbarapm.com/player/Jaylen_Brown
It views him as a moderately above average offensive player and a down right bad defensive player. RAPM also breaks down into 6 factor RAPM showing why a player has that value somewhat. Jaylen has consistently improved shot quality by 1 per 100 possessions while decreasing second chance and tov by about 1 also. This lines up with him as a player. He is a high usage good shotmaker who turns the ball over a lot and does not crash the glass. On the defensive end he decreases all 3 by .5 each. This is mostly due to his poor off ball awareness and lack of hands. Overall RAPM views him as a moderately negative player on the roster.
An example of Browns poor offball defense: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1t0fmtw/highlights_joel_embiid_with_the_behind_the_back/
He gets caught ball watching and falls asleep allowing for Oubre to get a dunk on his head. This was not the only time it happened in the series.
Here is George’s boxscore from this year.
For this post I will use TS% data from dunksandthrees.com as it uses possession data instead of estimation.
George had a TS% of 57.2 this season placing him in the 46th percentile
From Databallr
George was an above average creator and spacer while being very bad in transition.
https://databallr.com/zts
This is a playtype adjusted True Shooting found on Databallr.
George has a +1.8 ZTS%
These are the tracked defensive numbers they are per 75 possessions via Databallr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_Plus_Minus
Regularized adjusted plus minus is the basis of modern stats. It uses raw plus minus data and adjusts for teammate and opponent strength and other things such as the rubber band effect.
https://www.nbarapm.com/player/Paul_George
Paul George is viewed favorably by RAPM. On offense his large increase in offensive true shooting more than makes up for his other deficiencies. On defense he is viewed solidly across the board.
This was Payton Pritchard’s best ever season and next season his role will be even larger. He will be tasked to be the secondary creator this year. This season Pritchard had 1.11 ppp in isolation. This is 9th among players with atleast 15 games and atleast 1 isolation possession per game. He also had a 3.74 A/to. The Celtics believe he can replace Brown’s isolation and playmaking while being much more efficient on both. For reference Brown had 1.01ppp and a 1.41 A/to.
Here is Pritchard stats per 75 in the minutes without Brown. This is the first season this trend shows up as it is the first season Pritchard has been the primary weapon in the second unit. In the past either Brown or Tatum ran the show.
This new Celtics team while similar to the 24 team in its ridiculous amount of 3pa is built slightly differently. The Celtics are building to win the possession battle. Every single player on the team was a ++offensive rebounder and turnover suppressor, especially White and Payton. Brown on the other hand was neither. While George is also not a great offensive rebounder he is much less turnover prone. His offball shooting also allows him to still impact the game at a lower usage. This allows him to fit much better with Tatum and Pritchard. George at this point in his career is a moderately impactful 3 and D wing. He is an upgrade over Sam Hauser not over Brown. The hope is that Brown’s creation can be made up for in committee by Pritchard, White, and Tatum while George averages a smooth 15 and plays the best defense he has since his days on the Thunder.
Whichever one of the Celtics or the Sixers who improve more next year will settle the battle over analytics. If the Celtics miss the playoffs the numbers were wrong on JB and if they win 60+ the numbers were right. Brad Stevens and the Celtics bet on the numbers.
Now I’m going to preface this by saying I personally think this is a terrible trade. I have been critical of Jaylen Brown in the past but also Paul George is fucking 36. Note I will comment on brown more but that is because I am more familiar with his game as a celtics fan.
Here is Brown’s boxscore from this year. Note Brown had the 7th highest Usage of all time this season.
For this post I will use TS% data from dunksandthrees.com as it uses possession data instead of estimation.
Brown had a TS% of 57.5 this season placing him in the 49th percentile
From Databallr
Brown is an above average creator and in transition but below average in other places
https://databallr.com/zts
This is a playtype adjusted True Shooting found on Databallr.
Brown has a +1.3 ZTS%
These are the tracked defensive numbers they are per 75 possessions via Databallr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_Plus_Minus
Regularized adjusted plus minus is the basis of modern stats. It uses raw plus minus data and adjusts for teammate and opponent strength and other things such as the rubber band effect.
https://www.nbarapm.com/player/Jaylen_Brown
It views him as a moderately above average offensive player and a down right bad defensive player. RAPM also breaks down into 6 factor RAPM showing why a player has that value somewhat. Jaylen has consistently improved shot quality by 1 per 100 possessions while decreasing second chance and tov by about 1 also. This lines up with him as a player. He is a high usage good shotmaker who turns the ball over a lot and does not crash the glass. On the defensive end he decreases all 3 by .5 each. This is mostly due to his poor off ball awareness and lack of hands. Overall RAPM views him as a moderately negative player on the roster.
An example of Browns poor offball defense: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1t0fmtw/highlights_joel_embiid_with_the_behind_the_back/
He gets caught ball watching and falls asleep allowing for Oubre to get a dunk on his head. This was not the only time it happened in the series.
Here is George’s boxscore from this year.
For this post I will use TS% data from dunksandthrees.com as it uses possession data instead of estimation.
George had a TS% of 57.2 this season placing him in the 46th percentile
From Databallr
George was an above average creator and spacer while being very bad in transition.
https://databallr.com/zts
This is a playtype adjusted True Shooting found on Databallr.
George has a +1.8 ZTS%
These are the tracked defensive numbers they are per 75 possessions via Databallr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_Plus_Minus
Regularized adjusted plus minus is the basis of modern stats. It uses raw plus minus data and adjusts for teammate and opponent strength and other things such as the rubber band effect.
https://www.nbarapm.com/player/Paul_George
Paul George is viewed favorably by RAPM. On offense his large increase in offensive true shooting more than makes up for his other deficiencies. On defense he is viewed solidly across the board.
This was Payton Pritchard’s best ever season and next season his role will be even larger. He will be tasked to be the secondary creator this year. This season Pritchard had 1.11 ppp in isolation. This is 9th among players with atleast 15 games and atleast 1 isolation possession per game. He also had a 3.74 A/to. The Celtics believe he can replace Brown’s isolation and playmaking while being much more efficient on both. For reference Brown had 1.01ppp and a 1.41 A/to.
Here is Pritchard stats per 75 in the minutes without Brown. This is the first season this trend shows up as it is the first season Pritchard has been the primary weapon in the second unit. In the past either Brown or Tatum ran the show.
This new Celtics team while similar to the 24 team in its ridiculous amount of 3pa is built slightly differently. The Celtics are building to win the possession battle. Every single player on the team was a ++offensive rebounder and turnover suppressor, especially White and Payton. Brown on the other hand was neither. While George is also not a great offensive rebounder he is much less turnover prone. His offball shooting also allows him to still impact the game at a lower usage. This allows him to fit much better with Tatum and Pritchard. George at this point in his career is a moderately impactful 3 and D wing. He is an upgrade over Sam Hauser not over Brown. The hope is that Brown’s creation can be made up for in committee by Pritchard, White, and Tatum while George averages a smooth 15 and plays the best defense he has since his days on the Thunder.
Whichever one of the Celtics or the Sixers who improve more next year will settle the battle over analytics. If the Celtics miss the playoffs the numbers were wrong on JB and if they win 60+ the numbers were right. Brad Stevens and the Celtics bet on the numbers.
This season we were kept alive by our wings and queta crashing glass and grabbing tons of boards. Even our main guards were excellent rebounders. We just signed Robinson who is actually the all time per minute offensive rebound leader in the playoffs. I would expect Hauser to be gone considering he just isnt as good at crashing glass as our younger wings.
With the front office shopping Brown I wouldnt be shocked if the front office is trying to get more rebounders. Essentially we are copying the 2026 hornets offense with tons of 3s and grabbing all the o boards but with much much better personal.
With the the way this offseason has been going every single major eastern team either massively improved via players returning or trades or fully kept their very good core together.
One of these 7 teams will miss an automatic playoff bid.
Nba Champion Knicks
60 win Pistons
Healthy Hali + Zubac Pacers
Healthy Tatum Celtics
Giannis Heat
Kawhi Raptors
Eastern Conference runner up Cavs
7 teams you could tell me will win the east next year and I wouldn't be shocked.
This isnt even counting the dark horse teams like the Hornets, Hawks, Magic, Wizards, and 76ers.
The celtics are 38-7 since February 2023 in games without Jaylen Brown good for a 84% win rate. The celtics are 156-65 with him in that time period good for a 70% win rate.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/boston-celtics-record-without-jaylen-brown-since-february-2023
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/boston-celtics-record-with-jaylen-brown-since-february-2023
The celtics are 38-7 since February 2023 in games without Jaylen Brown good for a 84% win rate. The celtics are 156-65 with him in that time period good for a 70% win rate.
> Sources say that the Clippers, whether or not their talks with the Raptors progress all the way to a completed deal, have not pursued Boston's Jaylen Brown this offseason. The sources added that the Clippers aren't planning to make a run at the Celtics' MVP candidate.
source: https://marcstein.substack.com/p/the-ultimate-late-night-nba-trade
According to a league source, the Celtics are exercising the team options of Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh and Dalano Banton. Banton remains on a non-guaranteed deal.
Per source, the Celtics are declining options of Amari Williams & Max Shulga, but they could still have opps w/Cs.
Edit: Williams has just agreed to a deal with the Celtics most likely a 2way.
https://www.celticsblog.com/boston-celtics-news/142561/celtics-roster-neemias-queta-jordan-walsh
The celtics have until 5pm tonight to make decisions on Walsh, Williams, Queta, and Shulga's contracts. I believe we will pick up all but Shulga or not pick up Queta and sign him to a long term deal.
"The Hornets did something smart in the Miles Bridges trade. Instead of just sending the least favorable of the a UTA/MIN/CLE to PHX, Charlotte added a provision that includes their own pick to that group of teams.
So basically, if Charlotte is best team of UTA/MIN/CLE, they’ll still get a better draft pick, even though they sent a draft pick today. CLT still keeps their pick if it’s better than any of UTA/MIN/CLE."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/\_/id/49208142/sources-hornets-trade-veteran-miles-bridges-suns
Hello, due to some recent discourse involving advanced stats and a certain player who wears the number 7 I thought it would be an opportune time to breakdown advanced stats. I plan to break down every major category along with some extra bonus things I find particularly interesting. I would like to say that I don't come from a basketball background. I grew up unathletic and mostly fell in love with basketball due to the math and strategy. I am currently majoring in math. I understand most of the math necessary to explain pretty much every stat except for a few of the more complicated ones. I also will be rating each stat by how subjectively useful I find it to be for evaluating players or teams. I will also be using Neemias Queta as my example player. Why? Because I like him.
Sidenote: per36mins vs pergame vs per75pos vs per100pos
Throughout this series I will include little side notes to break down smaller things that aren’t really stats but are needed knowledge. Online you will find stats listed in all 4 ways. Per game is usually the best for comparing within a single season and per 75 is the best when comparing across eras as it adjusts for the crazy pace of the 60s or the slow pace of the deadball era.
The first items I will be breaking down are probably most people's first introduction to advanced stats. The Basketball Reference advanced stats tab. Oh boy this one is a doozy.
Here is Queta’s advanced stat page on Basketball Reference.
PER:
Rating- 0/10
Formula- https://www.basketball- reference.com/about/per.html
With a strong start to this series we have PER. Otherwise known as Player Efficiency rating. PER attempts to compare a player to the league and see how good they are relative to average. A 15 is treated as average. The stat adds up positive things and subtracts negative things. The problem as we will come to see with all of the stats listed above is that it is just a combination of boxscore numbers. It gives us no new information and just smushes it all together and removes context. I don’t need PER to know that Jokic is good and Hansen Yang is bad. Its only real use is estimating impact from before the days of play by play data. But it isn't 1997 anymore.
TS%:
Rating- 6/10
True shooting percentage is the points per true shot attempt a player scores. A fg attempt is 1. A trip to the line is 1. However a 3pt or and 1 is still only 1. Overall it is a good metric for shooting efficiency. However on Basketball Reference and most other places online it uses a .44 coefficient for estimating the amount of and 1s and 3pt fouls. This loses accuracy over just counting the true shot attempt and dividing points by that. There is one place that uses play by play based true shooting and I will get to it at the end.
Sidenote Rts%:
Rts% is just the difference between a player's True Shooting and league average that season. This can also be position adjusted.
3PAr:
Rating- 6/10
Formula- 3PA/FGA
Simply just the rate that a players shots are 3s
FTr:
Rating- 6/10
Formula- FTA/FGA
The rate a player shoots fts.
TRB%/ORB%/DRB%
Rating- 0/10
Formula- 100 * (TRB * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm TRB + Opp TRB))
Estimated percentage of rebound grabbed by the player. Key word estimated.
Ast%
Rating- 0/10
Formula- 100 * AST / (((MP / (Tm MP / 5)) * Tm FG) - FG)
Estimated percentage of team mate shots that are assisted by the player
Stl%
Rating- 0/10
Formula- 100 * (STL * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * Opp Poss)
Estimated percentage of opponent possessions ending in a steal by the player
Blk%
Rating- 0/10
Formula- 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA))
Estimated percentage of opponents 2PA ending in the player blocking a shot
Tov%
Rating- 0/10
Formula- 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
Estimated percentage of plays ending in a turnover by the player
Usg%
Rating- 0/10
Formula- 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV))
Estimated percent of plays a player shoots or turns it over.
Sidenote: Dunks and Threes
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual?m=topct
Dunks and Threes is a site that contains actual play by play data sourced versions of all these stats. I would rate those versions all 8/10. It also contains epm which is a topic for another time.
Ws/Ows/Dws/Ws48
Rating- 0/10
Formula- https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
Estimated wins added based on previous estimated stat. Winshares per 48 also calculates how much winshares a player earns per 48 minutes. Again issue with this stat is it is boxscore only.
BPM
Rating- -10/10
Formula- Don’t even bother
BPM is just another PER or Winshares, a boxscore advanced stat. Why did I rate it so low? It is because of 2 reasons: 1. It confuses people who think it is plus minus when it reality is is a bad attempt to estimate it, and 2. The formula is just genuinely broken and not good. Russ broke the all time record in 2017 and the creator changed it because it didn’t look right. However Jokic currently owns some of the highest DBPM seasons ever. That is because for centers in the formula assists boost their defense. Genuinely a horrible stat that has brought hate to advanced stats for years while adding nothing of value.
Vorp
Rating- 0/10
Formula- bruh
BPM but accounting for minutes and games played.
Now there is one more stat very similar found on Basketball Reference
Gamescore
Rating 10/10
Formula- PTS + 0.4 * FG - 0.7 * FGA - 0.4*(FTA - FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK - 0.4 * PF - TOV.
The reason I like gamescore is that it doesn’t try to mislead you. It simply sums up a player's boxscore and says if a game is good or not. It is an easy quick shorthand for looking for a player's best game.
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions I will answer them below. Next time I plan on breaking down Plus minus, APM, and RAPM.
I know its popular online from celtics fans to doom and gloom right now after the playoffs. Hell I have a little but I think people are worrying to much.
We had the second best offense this year and I dont think we are going to massively regress in that department. Tatum is back. Pritchard is still good. The young guys have a whole year to grow. The only guy past his prime is white and if he fixes his jumper he will still be elite. His offensive game has very little to do with athleticism.
On defense we were the 4th best and I think thats were we will improve next year. Hugo will hopefully get more minutes as our lead poa. White will still be elite. Tatum our best wing defender will be back. And despite all the doubt Queta this season was statically one of the 5 best rim protectors. If we get a backup center I could see us improving to the 3rd best defense.
Look I want the celtics to improve this offseason but we need to stop acting like the sky is falling. This current build of the team is elite and there is zero reason to think it wont be next year.
Lamelo ball was the engine of one of the great regular season offensives of all time this season.
When he was off the court the hornets has a 112 ortg and shot 56ts had 17tov% and 29.6 orb%.
When he was on the court the hornets had a 12 126 ortg and shot 60ts had 13.8 tov% and 33.3orb%.
Lamelo had a higher offensive on off than literally anyone with significant minutes. Even jokic.
While Dillon Mitchell's main strength is his defense and his hustle. He separates himself from are other wings by his passing ability. He had a 1.3 ast to usg which is 99th percentile for forwards in college. Could be a good sign on him as a connective passer in offense similar to Dyson Daniel's role as a screener and passer.
Bill Russell
Robert Parish
Robert Williams III
And perhaps Chris Cenac jr.
Hello. I am planning on making a post about literally every single stat and breaking them down based on usefulness and other characteristics. This was mostly spawned from my hatred of dbpm. When I say every stat I mean all of them so if you have any fun or interesting stats please leave them in the comments. Thanks.
Edit: please only pre existing publicly available stats.
Tldr: Giannis to Celtics trade along with Jusuf Nurkic on the MLE.
First off the Celtics pick up the team options on Scheierman, Quetta, Walsh, Williams, and Shulga. They don’t pick up Bantons and they don’t resign Vucevic. This leaves them with enough space to offer the full non taxpayer MLE. I believe they will use this to target a backup center because the current best backup center is Garza who is ok.
I believe that money will be used to target Jusuf Nurkic of the Utah Jazz. Nurkic is a good passer at the 5 while also posting 96th percentile ddpm and 99th percentile drapm. He also grabs a lot of boards. This solves the issue of the Celtics defense being complete dogshit without Queta on.
Then the Giannis deal. I believe the Celtics will trade Jaylen Brown to some 3rd team and then send Jordan Walsh the 27th overall pick and a future first to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for the Freak.
After both of these moves the Celtics remain under the tax to reset the repeater penalty and still retain tradable assets such as Sam Hauser.
New starting 5:
Pg - Jayson Tatum
Tatum is an all time great point forward and this season with the Celtics abundance of wings and general lack of point guards Tatum is doing what he does best and stealing from some others. He is going to go on his 2020 Bron arc. Tatum posted a career high 6.8 assist per game this playoffs and he is going to move even more into that role. His handle and strength is good enough to bring the ball up against all but the best wing defenders along with his ability to run pnr and coordinate an offense. On the defensive end he might not guard the opposing teams lead guard but he won’t struggle to on switches or in transition.
Sg- Derrick White
The other important reason for Tatum running the point is that it allows white to go back to his more natural position. His offensive role will be as A C&S guy and connective passer while serving tertiary ball handling duties if necessary. Defensively he will go back to his most useful ability as an offball help defender and rim protector with the insertion of a new player into the lineup
Sf- Hugo Gonzales
Sam Hauser I love you dearly but unfortunately Boston has a potential all defense rookie sitting on the bench. Hugo will serve as the team's primary defender against all but the biggest of primary scorers. This season he already did well in limited doses such as a game against the pacers by spearheading a massive comeback as the primary defender of Siakam. In the playoffs he even held up against Embiid on the switch. He is a combination of fast and strong that is very very useful. He is currently the second highest rookie in rapm though the highest is Dylan Harper who is literally 6th in the stat so second is pretty good. Offensively he is super raw but he won’t be asked to do much: He will corner sit, attack close outs, and crash the glass. I also would not be shocked if he comes back next year even stronger and a better shooter considering the pre draft to rookie year improvement. His tankathon profile was basically he sucks at basketball but he is 19.
Pf- Giannis Antetokounmpo
Gianni's role in Boston will be pretty much the same as before. He will run in transition, he will play in the post and in the top of the key as a ball handler. Defensively he provides secondary rim protection sorely needed by the Celtics who’s current rosters second best rim protector is under the height of 6’5”.
C- Neemias Queta
Queta is coming off a 4th place mip season after rotting on the bench for the first 4 years of his career. While not the best spacer he does have potential especially with an offseason to work. His ft percentage is good and he does have some experience as a floor spacer overseas in eurobasket. I don’t expect knockdown shooting but maybe 1 3 a game. Enough to show up on the scouting report. His strengths lie in his screen ability where he ranked second this year in screen assists and his offensive rebounding. He showed some star flashes especially while playing with Tatum including a 27 and 17 game. He could also be a screener for Giannis which gives the opponent the impossible problem of defending 2 down hill athletic 7fters with knockdown shooters on the wings. Defensively he is a great rim protector though he does have his issues with fouling that I hope he focuses on this offseason.
Overall this starting 5 is built to be a great defense while asking a lot of 2 stars to produce all the offense. This is ironically very similar team construction to the previously mentioned 2020 Lakers.
Bench
Pg-Payton Pritchard
Pritchard is more than your microwave scorer. He can give you 17 off the bench while also passing well and taking care of the ball. He gives you much needed shot creation with his elite isolation efficiency. He posted a 1.1 ppp in isolation this year. Defensively he is a weakness but his strength is high and he is not an unwilling defender.
Sg- Baylor Scheierman
Evil Cooper Flagg is a great shooter and defender off the bench. He also has creation upside best shown in the game 82 upset this season. He most likely won’t be asked to do that though and instead will be a wing shooter along with a poa defender.
Sf- Ron Harper Jr.
Rhj is another 3 and D celtic player so I won’t repeat all the other stuff but he does have a 7’1” wing span at 6’4” so that is pretty cool.
Sf- Sam Hauser
The Celtics don’t really have a 4 off the bench but Tatum can easily slide their in lineups if necessary. Hauser might not be the best defender but he is the definition of knockdown. That is about it though.
C- Jusuf Nurkic
This is the other offseason acquisition I hope for the Celtics. He is a great defender with amazing hands at his size. He gobbles up boards. On offense I expect lots of passing hub and dho plays ran through him.
The 3rd string
Pg-Dalano Banton
Sg-Max Shulga
C-Amari Williams
C- Luka Garza.
With this roster I expect the Celtics to play about 8 deep in the playoffs utilizing Scheierman, Harper, or Hauser depending on matchup.
Net points uses play by play data to track each individual players contributions to winning. The knicks starters were absurd with all 3 of KAT OG and Brunson being +6 or higher. Today was the first game of the finals where wemby was a net negative. The single worst player was robinson.
