xAI has jumped in the rankings of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index moving closer to the frontier models.

https://preview.redd.it/hkvq3z2h5zih1.png?width=2228&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6c0b59d1bb4a5970ea1cca0819abe698cf25659

• Model progress is occurring at the same time as commercial scaling: Grok 4.6 now scores 61 on Artificial Analysis, roughly at the GPT-5.6 Sol frontier, after gaining 5 points in just over one month and 23 points vs. Grok 4.3. That pace matters because SPCX is investing tens of billions into infrastructure while model quality is visibly improving.
• xAI's cost positioning is potentially powerful: Grok 4.6 pricing remains $2/$6 per 1M input/output tokens, materially below leading Claude and GPT frontier pricing while delivering comparable benchmark intelligence. This gives xAI room to compete aggressively for enterprise inference workloads.
• Agentic AI may be the bigger opportunity: Grok 4.6's strong GDPval, banking and terminal benchmarks suggest xAI is moving beyond consumer chatbot usage toward coding, finance, research and autonomous enterprise workflows—markets where spending per customer can be dramatically higher.
• xAI is becoming a real financial engine for SPCX: Q2 2026 AI revenue reached $2.56B, up 247% YoY and 213% QoQ.
• AI already represents ~33% of total SPCX revenue: SpaceX generated $7.8B of Q2 revenue, meaning AI went from an emerging business to roughly one-third of company sales remarkably quickly.
• Growth is increasingly enterprise-driven, not just Grok subscriptions: Q2 AI growth came from Grok/X subscriptions plus new AI infrastructure and cloud agreements. SpaceX signed $14.1B of contracted cloud sales.
• But SPCX is spending aggressively to capture the opportunity: AI capex jumped from $749M in Q2 2025 → $7.7B in Q1 → $15.8B in Q2 2026.

Why this matters for SPCX

The investment thesis is changing from “Starlink funds an expensive AI experiment” toward “xAI becoming the overwhelming share of SPCX.

The most striking number is the trajectory:

~$0.82B Q1 AI revenue → $2.56B Q2 → potentially a $10B+ quarterly business if anything close to this growth persists.

Grok 4.6 reaching frontier-level performance makes that revenue growth much more credible because SPCX is no longer scaling compute around a clearly inferior model—it now has a product that can plausibly compete for frontier AI workloads.

AbCellera brings together:

• Proven antibody-discovery technology
• Internally owned drug programs
• Partner-funded programs with milestone and royalty economics
• Clinical-stage assets
• Large-scale discovery, development and manufacturing infrastructure
• Government-supported infrastructure investment
• Transitioning from a partnership driven company toward a full fledged pharmaceutical company.

The key idea is simple: the platform has already demonstrated its ability to generate clinically useful antibodies.

A diversified drug pipeline

Rather than valuing AbCellera like a single-drug biotech, it can be viewed as a portfolio of independent drug programs.

Portfolio value ≈ value per program × number of programs

Each candidate has a relatively low probability of ultimately reaching approval, but a successful drug can generate hundreds of millions—or potentially billions—of dollars in value.

The portfolio can therefore expand in two ways:

• Existing programs advance through development
• AbCellera continuously generates new programs

This makes the model fundamentally different from a biotech company dependent on a small, fixed pipeline.

Asymmetric drug economics

Drug development has high failure rates but potentially enormous rewards.

Typical economics:

• Development can take roughly a decade
• Most drug candidates ultimately fail
• Successful drugs can generate substantial lifetime revenue
• Partnered programs can produce milestones and royalties
• Fully owned programs allow AbCellera to retain significantly more economics

The result is a portfolio where many programs may contribute little, while a small number of major successes could create substantial value.

Platform has proven commercial success

COVID provided an unusually fast real-world validation of AbCellera’s platform.

AbCellera rapidly identified an antibody candidate that Eli Lilly ultimately commercialized. The resulting programs generated roughly $1B in cumulative royalty revenue for AbCellera before viral variants reduced their relevance.

This matters because AbCellera's capabilities aren't purely theoretical—the platform has already produced a commercially successful medicine at scale.

Diversification reduces single-drug risk

A typical early-stage biotech may spend hundreds of millions developing one or two drugs. If those programs fail, much of the company’s value can disappear.

AbCellera works differently.

Its development cycle looks more like:

Partners → programs → biological data + improved technology → faster discovery → better molecules → more programs → repeat

One clinical failure therefore does not necessarily invalidate the broader platform.

The long-term question becomes whether AbCellera can consistently generate competitive drug candidates across many programs, rather than whether one specific molecule succeeds.

A repeatable drug-creation engine

AbCellera isn't simply developing individual drugs.

It is building infrastructure designed to repeatedly discover and advance new drug candidates.

More programs generate more biological data. More data can improve discovery capabilities. Better discovery can attract additional partners and support more internally owned programs.

That creates the potential for a self-reinforcing drug-development platform where the number and quality of opportunities can expand over time.

Partnerships

AbCellera has worked with dozens of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.

The appeal for partners is straightforward:

Instead of building every specialized antibody-discovery capability internally, pharmaceutical companies can use AbCellera's platform to pursue difficult biological targets.

AbCellera can receive:

upfront payments → research payments → milestones → royalties

while internally developed programs provide the opportunity to retain substantially more of a drug's eventual economics.

Capturing more of the drug value chain

AbCellera has evolved substantially beyond its original discovery-partnership model.

It is no longer simply discovering antibodies for partners.

It is becoming a clinical-stage drug developer itself, with internally developed programs including ABCL635 and ABCL575.

That changes the potential economics considerably:

Discovery partner: captures a smaller portion of a successful drug's economics.

Drug owner: can potentially retain a majority of a drug's value.

AbCellera is therefore expanding across:

antibody discovery → drug creation → clinical development → potential commercialization

ABCL635 validates the internal model

ABCL635 is particularly important because it originated from AbCellera's own GPCR/ion-channel discovery capabilities and has produced positive Phase 2 results.

A single dose produced:

• 83% reduction in hot-flash frequency at Week 4
• Versus 33% for placebo
• 58% reduction in severity
• Versus 12% for placebo

These results provide important evidence that AbCellera can use its platform not only to discover drugs for partners, but also to create promising internally owned clinical assets.

Access to large pharmaceutical markets

Antibody medicines already represent a major pharmaceutical category.

But AbCellera's opportunity isn't limited to one disease or therapeutic market.

Its platform can potentially generate medicines across:

endocrinology + women's health + immunology + oncology + additional therapeutic areas

The addressable opportunity therefore spans the combined pharmaceutical markets where AbCellera's technology can generate differentiated medicines.

A continuously expanding pipeline

AbCellera's portfolio isn't designed to remain fixed.

If the company simply developed a limited group of candidates and waited for them to succeed or fail, it would still resemble a diversified biotech.

Instead, the platform is designed to continually generate additional candidates.

Therefore:

More programs + advancing programs + improving technology = potentially greater portfolio value over time

Programs can also become substantially more valuable as they progress from:

discovery → preclinical → Phase 1 → Phase 2 → Phase 3 → approval

because each successful stage reduces some of the uncertainty surrounding the asset.

Risk versus potential reward

AbCellera has multiple underlying sources of potential value:

ABCL635 + ABCL575 + future internal drugs + partnered programs + royalties + milestones + discovery platform + manufacturing infrastructure

The biggest risks remain clinical failures, continued cash burn and the cost of developing internally owned drugs.

But the potential returns are highly asymmetric. A successful blockbuster could create billions of dollars in value, while AbCellera continues generating and advancing additional drug candidates.

If AbCellera can repeatedly discover and develop clinically successful antibodies, it could eventually be valued less like a conventional early-stage biotech and more like a scalable, integrated drug-development platform with a continuously expanding pipeline.

At $9.11/share and roughly a $4.2B market cap, a literal 100× from here means ~$420B market cap and ~$911/share before accounting for future dilution - of which I believe there won't be much as Ondas has some cash and huge revenue growth starting from a sizeable base with 50% margins.

It does seem like a far cry for any company to grow 100x in short time period but there is a conceivable path if ONDS evolves into a major global defense-autonomy platform rather than remaining a niche drone manufacturer.

The starting point is already extremely strong. ONDS did $50.1M of Q1 2026 revenue, +1,065% YoY, and backlog reached roughly $457M. After adding DZYNE and Omnisys, management increased 2026 revenue guidance to at least $525M, versus $390M previously, and that guidance doesn't yet include Cyberhawk.

Here's what a genuine 100× pathway could look like:

First because of heavy dilution the stock is being weighed down a lot - but those funds are being used to make very high growth acquisitions such as Dzyne. Because Revenue is growing 10x YoY it is reasonable to expect revenue to continue growing a lot especially with the type of acquisitions being made. So a 10x in the near term isn't unlikely. The multiple should be 80x Revenue not 8x giving ONDS a $42B valuation instead of the current $4.2B.

Stage	Revenue	Potential multiple	Valuation
2026	$525M+	~8×[implied]	~$4.2B
2028	$2B	12×	$24B
2030	$5B	15×	$75B
2033	$10B	15×	$150B
2035+	$20–25B	17–20×	$340–500B

So 100× probably requires something around $20–25B of annual revenue, assuming ONDS remains a very high-growth, strategically important company worthy of a premium valuation.

The key is that DZYNE radically expands what ONDS could become. ONDS says the acquisition takes it into long-endurance ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], Group 4/5 UAS, counter-UAS, autonomous effects and affordable-mass systems—much larger defense categories than its original automated drone-in-a-box market. Management also says DZYNE adds meaningful revenue, attractive gross margins and positive EBITDA.

For the $400B+ outcome, I think five things would have to happen simultaneously:

• Counter-UAS becomes huge. Iron Drone/Raider-type systems become standard infrastructure protecting sensitive sites such as military bases, borders, airports, energy infrastructure and cities.
• DZYNE becomes a major defense prime. The US government is actively moving toward large-scale autonomous drone formations and swarming concepts. Dyzne's autonomous aircraft need to move from hundreds of millions of revenue toward several billions as programs transition into production.
• Ondas dominates autonomous drone infrastructure. Optimus/Airobotics becomes a recurring platform deployed across cities, police departments, industrial sites, utilities, railroads and military installations.
• Software/AI becomes significant. The Palantir relationship and Ondas' own autonomy stack turn the company into more than hardware—command-and-control, fleet management, autonomous missions, data and AI could support much higher margins and valuation multiples. The Palantir partnership specifically integrates Foundry into ONDS autonomous systems.
• Acquisitions continue working. ONDS essentially becomes a consolidator of autonomous-defense companies, buying promising platforms for synergy and using its sales/manufacturing/customer network to scale them globally.

There is also a mathematical reason the thesis isn't completely absurd. Going from management's $525M+ 2026 revenue target to $20B requires about 38× revenue growth. Over ten years, that's roughly a 44% revenue CAGR. That's extraordinarily difficult, but it's much different from saying the operating business itself needs to grow 100×.

The biggest perceived issue is dilution. As mentioned earlier going forward dilution will be minimal because revenue growth and margins themselves should fund most of the expansion.

My very-long-term spectrum would be roughly:

Bear: $3–5B revenue → $20–40B valuation → 5–10×

Strong execution: $8–12B revenue → $100–180B valuation → 25–40×

Extreme bull / defense platform: $20–25B+ revenue → $350–500B+ valuation → ~80–120×

ONDS needs to become something closer to a next-generation Lockheed/Palantir hybrid for autonomous warfare, with DZYNE + counter-UAS + autonomous drones + AI/software all scaling together. That's the scenario where today's ~$4B valuation starts looking very undervalued.

Welcome to RockstarBets—a community for investors who aren’t chasing every meme stock or following the crowd. But those sharing high-conviction investment ideas, tracking top-performing portfolios, and learning from each other’s research.

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Welcome to RockstarBets—a community for investors who aren’t chasing every meme stock or following the crowd. But those sharing high-conviction investment ideas, tracking top-performing portfolios, and learning from each other’s research.

What you’ll find here:
📈 High-conviction stock ideas
💰 Top ROI portfolios and portfolio updates
📰 Market-moving news and earnings discussions
📊 Deep dives, DD, and valuation analysis
🚀 Long-term compounders and emerging growth companies

Community Guidelines
Back up your investment thesis with reasoning whenever possible.
Be respectful—challenge ideas, not people.
No pump-and-dump posts or market manipulation.
No spam or excessive self-promotion.

Post Ideas
“My highest-conviction stock and why”
“Portfolio update (+32% YTD)”
“Undervalued growth stock analysis”
“Best investment books or resources”
“News that could move the market”
Whether you’re a value investor, growth investor, dividend investor, or somewhere in between, you’re welcome here.

If you’ve just joined, introduce yourself below:
What’s your highest-conviction stock?
What’s your biggest investing lesson?
What sector are you most bullish on over the next decade?

Thanks for being part of the very first wave. Together, let's make r/rockstarBets amazing.

I am very big on NBIS even though I don't hold it in my main portfolio. I bought it at $88 (kinda late to it) in my other portfolio. It is one of my favourite stocks for 2026.

The main reason I'm not worried about it at all is that:

• Demand risk looks relatively low. Hyperscalers and AI labs still need enormous amounts of GPU capacity, as industry-wide cloud/AI backlogs remain huge from Google to Oracle and many more.

Company	Latest backlog / RPO	Approx. market cap	Backlog as % of market cap
Oracle	$638B	~$410B	~156%
Microsoft	$678B	~$3.7T	~18%
Amazon	~$496B	~$3.0T	~17%
Alphabet	$519.5B	~$4.5T	~12%

• GPUs becoming outdated rendering data centers obsolete won't happen- Every AI infrastructure provider—Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle, CoreWeave, etc.—has to continuously refresh accelerators. NBIS is exposed to the same technology cycle, not a special one. So this isn't an NBIS exclusive risk but an industry wide one.
• Newer GPUs can actually increase NBIS's revenue opportunity. Higher-value Blackwell/Rubin-class infrastructure can command substantially more revenue per MW if utilization stays high.
• Its biggest bottleneck is not being able to quickly meet demand. If NBIS can build and energize data centers quickly enough, demand should absorb a lot of that capacity.
• Long-term contracts/backlog reduce some demand uncertainty. Contracted capacity gives better revenue visibility than a pure spot-compute business.
• It's not just renting commodity GPUs. The value proposition includes the full AI cloud stack, infrastructure, orchestration and large-scale clusters.

What I would worry about with NBIS is execution: massive capex requirements, financing/dilution, power availability, construction delays, customer concentration, and whether returns on all that infrastructure remain attractive as competition increases.

Those are much more important risks than “today's Nvidia GPUs eventually become outdated.”

We will evaluate SpaceX's potential 2030 valuation through each of its three major segments:

1. Starlink / Connectivity
2. Space — Launches & Spacecraft
3. AI / xAI

We can then combine the three segments to estimate SpaceX's potential 2030 valuation.

1. Starlink / Connectivity

This includes:

• Residential internet
• Business and enterprise connectivity
• Maritime and aviation
• Government connectivity
• Direct-to-cell / Starlink Mobile

Starlink remains SpaceX's largest and most profitable segment.

2025 Connectivity revenue: $11.39B
Q1 2026 revenue: $3.26B
Q2 2026 revenue: $4.29B
Q2 YoY growth: 66%

Starlink also reached approximately 12 million subscribers in Q2 2026, roughly double the 6 million from a year earlier.

Subscriber ARPU remained around $66/month, despite SpaceX's rapid expansion into lower-priced international markets.

The important point is that subscriber growth is currently more than offsetting lower ARPU.

Based on the $7.55B generated during H1 and continued Q2 momentum, we'll use approximately $18B of 2026 Starlink/Connectivity revenue as our starting estimate.

2030 Starlink Scenarios

Scenario	2026(Est) Revenue	2030 Revenue	CAGR	P/S	2030 Valuation
Bear	$18B	$35B	18.1%	10×	$350B
Base	$18B	$50B	29.1%	15×	$750B
Bull	$18B	$70B	40.4%	20×	$1.40T
Extreme Bull	$18B	$100B	53.5%	20×	$2.00T

The bull cases would require continued rapid subscriber growth alongside expansion of higher-value businesses such as aviation, maritime, enterprise, government and direct-to-cell.

2. Space — Launches & Spacecraft

This segment includes:

• Falcon 9
• Falcon Heavy
• Dragon
• Starship
• Commercial launches
• NASA missions
• Defense and intelligence missions
• Spacecraft development and related government programs

Space generated $4.09B in 2025.

2026 started slowly:

Q1 2026: $619M
Q2 2026: $962M
Q2 YoY growth: 29%
H1 2026: ~$1.58B

The Q2 acceleration is important.

SpaceX also received more than $6B of multi-year U.S. government awards associated with Starshield, providing additional visibility into future government-related revenue.

For 2026, we'll use approximately $3.7B of Space revenue as our assumption.

The long-term upside is primarily dependent on:

• Higher external launch cadence
• Starship reaching commercial operations
• Starship dramatically increasing payload capacity
• NASA Artemis
• Defense and intelligence contracts
• Starshield
• New missions made economically possible by Starship

One important point is that many SpaceX launches deploy SpaceX's own Starlink satellites. These launches create enormous economic value for Starlink but aren't equivalent to selling an external launch and therefore don't generate corresponding Space-segment revenue.

2030 Space Scenarios

Scenario	2026(Est) Revenue	2030 Revenue	CAGR	P/S	2030 Valuation
Bear	$3.7B	$6B	12.9%	8×	$48B
Base	$3.7B	$8B	21.2%	12×	$96B
Bull	$3.7B	$12B	34.2%	15×	$180B
Extreme Bull	$3.7B	$18B	48.5%	20×	$360B

The base case roughly continues the historical growth trajectory.

The bull and extreme-bull cases require Starship to create a genuine step-change in the economics and size of the launch market.

3. AI / xAI

This is where the model has changed the most following Q2 earnings.

The segment includes:

• Grok
• X-related AI/advertising revenue
• Enterprise AI
• AI infrastructure
• Cloud services
• Future orbital AI compute

2025 AI revenue: $3.20B
Q1 2026: $818M
Q2 2026: $2.56B
Q2 YoY growth: ~247%

AI revenue more than tripled sequentially from Q1 to Q2.

SpaceX also announced approximately $14.1B of contracted Cloud Services Agreements, with around $1.6B of incremental AI infrastructure revenue already contributing during Q2.

AI is therefore scaling much faster than we would have assumed before earnings.

We'll use approximately $11B of 2026 AI revenue as a working estimate.

2030 AI Scenarios

Scenario	2026(Est) Revenue	2030 Revenue	CAGR	P/S	2030 Valuation
Bear	$11B	$40B	38.1%	8×	$320B
Base	$11B	$75B	61.6%	12×	$900B
Bull	$11B	$125B	83.5%	15×	$1.88T
Extreme Bull	$11B	$200B	106.5%	20×	$4.00T

This is by far the hardest segment to value because the business is changing extremely quickly.

The biggest wildcard is orbital compute.

SpaceX has said it intends to begin deploying AI compute satellites as early as 2028, using Starship's payload capacity and Starlink's network infrastructure.

Combined SpaceX 2030 Valuation

Now combine the three businesses:

Scenario	Starlink	Space	AI/xAI	SpaceX Valuation
Bear	$350B	$48B	$320B	$718B
Base	$750B	$96B	$900B	$1.75T
Bull	$1.40T	$180B	$1.88T	$3.46T
Extreme Bull	$2.00T	$360B	$4.00T	$6.36T

My takeaway

The most interesting thing about SpaceX after Q2 earnings is that launches are no longer the main valuation driver.

Space is becoming the infrastructure layer that enables the other businesses.

Starship → launches satellites → expands Starlink → enables global connectivity → eventually enables orbital AI infrastructure.

Starlink is currently the cash-generating engine, while AI has become the fastest-growing segment.

The base case produces roughly a $1.75T valuation by 2030, while a successful Starship + continued Starlink growth + rapidly scaling AI business could push the bull case toward $3.5T.

The extreme case above should be treated as exactly that — an extreme upside scenario requiring extraordinary execution across all three businesses.

Current SpaceX valuation is $1.75T.

I posted only the bull version of this here and people went crazy so here’s the updated version:

AST SpaceMobile Valuation Scenarios:

Current share price: ≈ $59/share

🐻** **
Bear Case
Assumptions
600M subscribers
$2/month ARPU
15× P/S

Revenue = 600M × $2 × 12 = $14.4B/year
Market Cap = $14.4B × 15 = $216B
~7.6× current market cap
Share price: ~$59 → ~$448

⚖️
Base Case
Assumptions
1.5B subscribers
$2.50/month ARPU
20× P/S

Revenue = 1.5B × $2.50 × 12 = $45B/year
Market Cap = $45B × 20 = $900B
~31.7× current market cap
Share price: ~$59 → ~$1,870

🚀** **
Bull Case
Assumptions
3B subscribers
$3/month ARPU
30× P/S

Revenue = 3B × $3 × 12 = $108B/year
Market Cap = $108B × 30 = $3.24T
~114× current market cap
Share price: ~$59 → ~$6,726

Some context for the assumptions:
ASTS currently has agreements with MNOs covering 3B subscribers, out of which 600M are from definitive agreements.

Its current P/S is about 270.

Its ARPU covers not only dead zones but also areas with weak signal/coverage. So the bull case assumption of $3/month may be conservative.

ONDS – Ondas Holdings
• Stock performance (YTD): -32%
• Backlog: $450M+, including $111M from DZYNE
• Expected revenue CAGR through 2027: 340%
• Revenue projected to surge from $50M in 2025 to nearly $1B by 2027

Overview of Company:

Ondas Holdings is a technology company focused on autonomous drone systems and private wireless networks for industrial and government customers.
The company develops AI-powered drone platforms used for defense, security, infrastructure inspection, emergency response and automated aerial operations. Its portfolio includes subsidiaries such as Airobotics, American Robotics and DZYNE Technologies.
Ondas Networks develops private wireless connectivity solutions for critical industries, including railroads, utilities, energy and government agencies.
The company is positioning itself at the intersection of autonomous defense technology, drones, artificial intelligence and mission-critical communications.

I truly believe this is the next RKLB, ASTS, NBIS type stock which is still in its early stages and could easily 10x from here!

Hey everyone! I just created my first subreddit, r/RockstarBets, and I’m excited to start building a community.

The goal is to create a place where people can share:
High-conviction stock ideas
Portfolio performance and ROI

I’m completely new to moderating, so I’d appreciate any advice on growing a healthy community, setting up rules, attracting quality members, and avoiding common mistakes.
If you’ve built a successful subreddit before, what’s the one thing you wish you knew when you started?

I believe ASTS will have 3B subscribers by end of 2028 after it is done launching a total of 90 satellites for 24/7 continuous coverage.

Assumptions:
- $3/month ARPU
- 30x P/S
- 3B subscribers

That gives a market cap of $3.24 trillion

That is about 114x from here or $8350/ share

What do you think?

Welcome to RockstarBets—a community for investors who aren’t chasing every meme stock or following the crowd. But those sharing high-conviction investment ideas, tracking top-performing portfolios, and learning from each other’s research.

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