So I have been following some of the news regarding solid state batteries (SSB) for EVs. Solid state batteries matter a lot for Canada because it can allow for BEVs to get over 1000 km in range (perhaps even 1500 km in range), and they also work very well in cold weather. Now with the latest crop of LFP batteries announced in China this year, such as the BYD Blade 2.0 battery, it handles cold weather much better than the older LFP batteries. But even with the new LFP batteries, the range still won't match SSB. Having both better range and being able to operate better in cold weather makes SSB a huge game changer for Canada.
Most of the credible news on SSB are with the Chinese EV companies, although there is one Taiwan company that claims to be able to mass produce a version of SSB.
In a nutshell, most of the big Chinese EV battery makers are estimating that by 2027, they will commence trial production of SSB. Note that trial production is not mass production. This includes CATL, BYD, CALB, and Gotion. These are 4 of the top 5 companies world wide by EV battery market share. In general, the estimated timeline for initial mass production of solid state batteries for the Chinese battery companies is about 2030.
Note that the first cars that get solid state batteries will probably be expensive and very high end cars. Just like most technology, the high end gets it first, and as time progresses and manufacturers figure out how to make it cheaper, then the technology eventually propagates to lower end products. With that said, BYD plans to launch their first car with a SSB in 2027 - it could be under the Yangwang series, and if they do sell it in 2027, it's unlikely that the SSB in it will be from mass production (more like the SSB will be manually assembled).
But yeah, if BYD sticks to their timeline, we could be seeing the first SSB EVs (not necessarily for sale in Canada though), out by next year, even if the SSB battery depends on more manual labor to assemble it.
Of course, there are other companies outside of China working on SSB as well. The Koreans, Europeans, Japanese, and Americans are also working on it. Which brings us to ProLogium, the first company to announce that they are "mass producing" solid state batteries. So ProLogium is a Taiwan company. They are saying that they can now mass produce a 381 Wh/kg SSB, and Mercedes is interested in using the SSB from ProLogium.
There are a few caveats to the ProLogium news though. The initial capacity of their mass production is only 0.5 GWh, which is estimated to be about 6,250 battery packs with an 80 kWh capacity. That works out to about 520 battery packs per month. I would say 520 battery packs per month is still mass production, but probably on the low end of it. Furthermore, 381 Wh/kg is also on the lower end, as the big Chinese battery producers are targeting a higher Wh/kg for their mass produced SSBs. But still, this news of ProLogium is another step forward for the mass production of SSBs.
I would link all the sources, but this subreddit is very strict on what is allowed to be linked, and sometimes my posts get eaten up by the automod when I try to link sources. I'll try to link sources in a comment below.
Edit: I don't think you should hold off on buying an EV just because of SSBs.
Hi. I've been following the Australian EV & car subreddits, and also the Austrlian Whirlpool Automotive forum. If there is a particular Chinese EV model you are interested in and it's being sold in Australia, the Australian Whirlpool forum is pretty good because there is usually a thread devoted to that car model so you can read about what the owners think about it. Now I am not Australian, just a Canadian, but obviously, when we have to guess the price, when we have to guess what models may come to Canada, and how the Chinese EV companies will operate (ie. dealership model, etc), Australia gives a pretty good indication of what may happen in Canada.
We have similar demographics as Australia so I do think at least when we try to guess the price, it's good practice to reference Australia. There are a few differences though - Australia doesn't have a tariff on Chinese EVs, we have a 6.1% tariff on them. While Australia is right hand drive, they also accept EU certified vehicles (but they need to be right hand drive). With that said, the BYD Atto 1 which is the cheapest EV for sale in Australia, sells for about 26K AUD, which is also about 26K CAD (crazy that the exchange rate is almost 1 to 1 now). I think the BYD Atto 1, or Seagull as it is called in China, is much cheaper in China. Having said that, sometimes the price in Australia is pretty good with respect to the price in China - for example, the Zeekr 7x is about 15% more expensive in Australia than it is in China (at least the older model was).
Now the best part of Australia is that their EV market is very competitive. The Chinese EV makers are competing against themselves all the time. For example, the Geely EX2 was released recently in Australia for about 30K AUD (also about 30K CAD) for the driveway price for the lowest trim. At that price, Australians were immediately comparing the EX2 to the Aion UT, GWM Ora 5, and MG4, with various Australians saying you can get better value with those Chinese EVs.
We still have the 49K quota on Chinese EVs, so our market will probably not be as competitive as Australia, because if the Chinese EV makers fulfill the quota, they would probably prefer to sell the cars at a higher price. Having said that, Tesla lowering the price of the Model 3, made in Shanghai, in Canada is huge, because that sends a message to the other Chinese EV makers, and sets a standard with which the Chinese EV makers must compete with, even within the quota.
Finally, because of the lower prices and increased competition, Chinese cars in total (so all cars including ICE) just hit a record high of 40% of all cars sold in Australia in August. Obviously, Australians are mostly buying the Chinese EVs rather than Chinese ICE cars, but because of the cheaper Chinese EVs, BEVs made up almost 25% of the new car sales in Australia. That 25% is huge, because it appears that Australia could be on the exponential phase of the S curve, where adoption is exponential rather than more flat. And note that 25% is just BEVs only, it doesn't even include PHEVs or EREVs. I do hope that one day in Canada, we also hit 25% BEVs of all new cars sold, and I think that the Chinese EVs will help us get there as well, if they are priced right.
>Patrick Brown, the mayor of Brampton, Ontario, said BYD approached him about six months ago to talk about making buses at the factory. Stellantis had been retooling the plant to manufacture the Jeep Compass, but the company halted that plan last year when the US adopted a policy of tariffs on foreign autos.
Not passenger cars, but buses (I assume electric buses). Still, it's better than leaving the plant idle.
Maybe in the long run, it can help establish a supply chain for electric passenger cars though. The supply chain is critical if we are to manufacture passenger car EVs, and there is an overlap with the electric bus supply chain.