u/lies_are_comforting

Disney is trading at a forward P/E of roughly 16x. Historically, Disney has commanded a multiple north of 20x. It is deeply undervalued relative to its historical power because the market is still discounting its legacy linear TV decline and demanding proof that its streaming business (Disney+) can scale its profitability consistently.

Nintendo trades around a 19x P/E. On paper, it looks a bit pricier than Disney, but its balance sheet is legendary. Nintendo carries zero debt and an absolute mountain of cash (over $13 billion). If you strip out that net cash, its enterprise value makes the actual business core look remarkably cheap.

Strictly looking at the stock prices, NTDOY feels like a bargain 50 % cheaper today than just a year ago while DIS is “only” 20 % off in the same timeline.

As for Disney, parks remain a cash machine. Streaming has improved materially. ESPN's direct-to-consumer strategy could unlock value. However, Disney still faces execution risk across streaming, linear TV, and its more leveraged balance sheet.

The Nintendo stock has corrected significantly despite strong early Switch 2 demand, making valuation compelling according to several recent analyses. Nintendo has one of the strongest balance sheets in gaming, with a large cash position and no meaningful long-term debt. Revenue opportunities extend beyond hardware through software, digital sales, movies, and theme-park licensing. But we all know how expensive DRAM, NAND are and recently Nintendo had to hike the prices for Switch 2.

DIS seems to fluctuate between $90-$110 but earnings in May were pretty great hence the historically low P/E.

NTDOY was 100 % higher just a year ago but who knows if it will trade flat for years now. Disney stock did after it crashed five years ago as the boost from Disney+ wore off.

Mickey or Mario? Which stock would you buy for a swing trade and which would you buy for a long term investment?

$DIS was $100 the day before earnings on May 5 and earning were great and made it pop like 5-8 % to $110 ish and throughout May it kinda consolidated around $105 but why all of a sudden is it $95?

Shouldn’t it at least be the same price as prior to earnings ie $100? Like, why lower considering the great earnings report?

Today was the record date ie day after ex div so it makes sense it dropped a little today maybe in a frictionless market but a bunch of peers were up by high percentage digits and it also doesn’t explain why the stock is down about 5 % in the past week.

I realize I’m very short term minded. Still, DIS has only traded for sub $100 very briefly on two occasions in the past 365 days… and considering the earnings report on May 5 was pretty great I feel like maybe now is a good time to buy?

The catalyst that caused SNAP’s recent downturn obviously is the AR Specs glasses that everyone seems to agree will be dead on arrival. I’m struggling to see how that could cause the stock to fall 20 % as I’d imagined the commercial failure of the glasses was already priced in. And I’m not the only one- after Snap unveiled the glasses analysts have reiterated their price targets for the stock. Wells Fargo even raised theirs by a dollar. The average price target is now $8 and the stock trades at $4.4.

Not only did SNAP fall 20 % in the past month but in the meantime RDDT and PINS jumped 10-20 % and these three stocks’ price movement were pretty much identical from January to June. So SNAP likely would’ve joined the rally had it not been for the glasses. So it feels like SNAP fell from $6 to $4.4 when it could have gone from $6 to $7 which would place it much close to average price target from analysts.

Where do you see RDDT and SNAP going from here? Up or down? Which one would you buy now if you had to buy one of them?

For a 30-day swing trade I would buy SNAP. For a year or longer I would buy RDDT. I consider RDDT a better business, but less attractive risk/reward over just one month.

The company’s market cap has fallen from roughly $10 billion to about $7 billion in the ten days that have passed since Evan unveiled Specs at AWE.

What do you think the mood is like at Specs Inc HQ right now? The project they’ve worked on for a decade has been ridiculed by everyone and the stock is getting destroyed hovering just above all time historical lows.

I bought 2,000 LULU shares today. A few hours later they were worth 4 % less than what I paid for them. I caught this knife knowing that might happen though. I don’t care if they sell tights or pineapples, its massive valuation contraction relative to its historic performance, robust international growth, and strong balance sheet is crazy.

I don’t really care if I own NKE or LULU. I’m pretty sure both of them will never get much cheaper than their current prices. I predict NKE will never go below $40 and LULU won’t go below $100. I might jump ship in a month or two because I think LULU will rally more than NKE when macro improves. If a peace deal happens I’m pretty sure LULU will go back to $120.

I might hold it for five years who knows.

Should we expect the stock to revisit all time lows in the high $3’s or is it likely the stock will quickly bounce back to $5-$6?

Well, let’s compare the state of the company now with three-four months ago when the stock traded in the $3-$4 range.

February - April: all social media stocks got absolutely hammered when entering 2026. RDDT, PINS and SNAP were all roughly down 50 % year to date at some point in February-April. Fast forward to today and RDDT and PINS are now roughly down 25 % year to date while the same was true for SNAP until a few days ago when the unveiling of the Specs AR glasses caused to stock to crash 20 % in the span of a few days which means it’s now down over 40 % year to date. Interestingly, approximately ten different stock analysts updated their ratings and price targets for the stock following the glasses unveiling and not one of them was negative. They were all neutral and reiterated their predictions except for the Wells Fargo analyst which actually raised their price target.

Now, analysts usually aren’t held in very high regard to be fair and a lot of the times it does seem like they just place their bets near where the stock price is. Still, it’s worth taking note analysts see roughly 30 % upside for PINS and RDDT, 40 % upside for META but a whopping 75 % upside for SNAP.

Most analysts who have commented on the recent unveiling of the Specs glasses generally say everything went the way they expected it to. They care much more about the core business of the company.

A few notable things to note when looking at now vs February-April for Snap Inc: On June 3 SP Global Ratings upgraded the company's issuer credit rating to BB- from B+. On March 31 activist investor Irenic disclosed a massive 2.5 % stake in the company and they shared a plan to 7x the company’s value. On April 15 Snap Inc cut 16 % of its workforce ie 1,000
jobs due to AI advancements.

Snap’s Q1 earnings report was kinda mixed but it seems the company’s pivot to profitability is going well. What’s not going well is the continued decline in daily active users in North America.

So, what do you think- is the stock going to be pinned in the $4 range or will it reach new historical all time lows at sub $4, or is it poised to bounce back over $5 again and maybe reach $6 short term? Just five days ago it traded for $6 and the Specs glasses unveiling caused it to crash to its current trading price of $4.66.

Finally it’s worth noting that the stock jumped almost 10 % last week when the Iran peace deal was announced. Of course, with the Hormuz strait now closed (or is it?) it’s possible it will react negatively tomorrow when the market opens unless the bottom
Is in.

I see some people saying The Specs are sold out. I can’t buy them in my country but I’d that true though? I read somewhere they were going to make 100,000 units in the first round of production. I find it hard to believe they sold more than maybe 5,000 thus far.

View Poll

The reason why everyone is bullying Spiegel right now is because of his narrative that Specs are supposed to be interchangeable with everyday glasses. But not a single person on the planet will want to use these for 10-12 hours a day. He must know this. Why is he deliberately making them sound like they’re something they are not? He could’ve said that for now this generation of Specs is for enthusiasts and developers and then next gen is going to be “wearable for everyday life.”

I’m so puzzled by this.

The stock is down 20 % since the CEO of Snap Inc, Evan Spiegel, gave a keynote speech presentation of the upcoming AR glasses SPECS at AWE yesterday. The stock now trades for under $5 for the first time in three months.

The stock was hit by the perfect storm of bad news this week. First, the UK bans social media for under 16 year olds. Then, Spiegel crashes the stock by revealing the AR glasses. Finally, the FED hints at a rate increase later this year.

Is now a good time to buy the stock? Following the presentation of the AR glasses, no analysts lowered their price targets or ratings. A handful of them reiterated their targets and ratings and a Wells Fargo one even raised their price target to $7. Or course, following the news of a potential rate increase, analysts may reevaluate.

Everyone hates SNAP because of dilution via SBC’s and because of Spiegel’s voting rights. I understand. Still, at $4.75 I love the stock and am buying shares.

SNAP stock is down 20 % since Evan’s presentation yesterday. Job well done. I lost $30k because of it so I’ve felt better.

But hey the glasses look real nice 👍. Consider this my feedback.

You can’t place an order in portrait mode. You need to tilt your phone to landscape mode or else the order window doesn’t show up when you try to place an order.

Sincerely,
A shareholder holding 50,000 shares

According to Burry’s substack he bought FISV today after the stock crashed on a sudden CEO transition. Meanwhile the company reaffirmed its FY outlook meaning that essentially you get the stock 11 % cheaper today compared to yesterday although its financials did not change at all overnight.

The timing of the CEO transition is what has everyone concerned. It’s only been a month since their Investor Day and the now former CEO had only been in the role for about a year.

In many ways it reminds me how LULU crashed 10 % when Lululemon announced their upcoming CEO. In my opinion these leadership worries are way too much of an overreaction.

Take a look at KSS. They had to let their former CEO go because he was corrupt. The stock absolutely crashed. The interim CEO basically did nothing yet the stock eventually gained 150 %.

The new Fiserv CEO has been with the company since late 2024 and was serving as co-president. Specifically, he was already overseeing technology and merchant solutions - the exact core engines of Fiserv's business. Because the successor is an internal veteran who already ran the primary growth segments, operational disruption is absolutely going to be minimal.

Algorithms and day traders often trigger automatic sell orders on news phrases like "unexpected departure" or "CEO flees." This creates a domino effect of selling that drives the price down far lower than the actual financial impact warrants which is EXACTLY what happened today.

I bought 4,000 FISV shares today and am holding 2,000 LULU shares. Burry can’t be wrong forever.

On Tuesday Snap Inc CEO Evan Spiegel is the keynote speaker at AWE. He’s highly expected to announce a 2026 release date for the consumer version of the very anticipated Specs AR glasses.

The market might react to it depending on what information Spiegel shares. Maybe he is going to show the final version of the glasses for the first time ever.

Snap has been trying to diversify away from its volatile core digital advertising business by licensing its AR technology. Investors love recurring, high-margin revenue. Announcements regarding new brand partnerships (e.g., major retail, e-commerce, or industrial giants using Snap’s Lens Studio and AR enterprise tools) could instantly boost confidence in the company’s revenue-generating future.

SNAP stock has faced major headwinds regarding user growth in North America and heavy spending on infrastructure. Because of this, it often attracts short sellers. If Spiegel delivers a highly polished presentation with actual "wow factor" tech demos, it can catch short sellers off guard, triggering a rapid "short squeeze" as they scramble to buy back shares to cover their positions, forcing the stock price upward.

Snapchat+ crossed a massive milestone by reaching 25 million paying subscribers. This rapid growth propelled Snap's direct subscription business to a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate (ARR). To put that in perspective, "Other Revenue" (which is primarily Snapchat+ along with premium features like Lens+ and Memories storage) surged 87% year-over-year to $285 million in Q1 alone.

It has officially become one of the fastest-growing consumer subscription products in the world. Which is why I’m long 42,000 shares…