
I built a Paper money trader for Elon tweet-count markets on Polymarket
Three strategies: Smart Money (following top Polymarket wallets), Arb (NegBin forecast vs market price), and Safe Trades (NO positions where model + smart money agree).
12 resolved trades so far. Arb is up +171% ROI; the other two are underwater. 60% win rate combined. Every trade is calculated and logged automatically.
Everything's logged publicly btw - elontweets.xyz/trades
Curious if anyone else is playing these markets.