JB Hi-Fi Q4 comps (-0.8%). Good Guys flat, e&s in freefall.
Just looked at JB Hi-Fi’s full-year results and the divisional sales charts are pretty grim.
JB Hi-Fi Australia:
Q1: +6.0% total / +5.0% comps
Q2: +6.5% total / +5.0% comps
Q3: +4.0% total / +2.6% comps
Q4: +0.3% total / -0.8% comps
Full year: +4.4% / +3.2%
That’s a proper cliff from solid mid single digits to negative comps in one quarter.
The Good Guys (appliances):
Held up okay earlier in the year but completely stalled in Q4 — 0.0% total and comps. Full year only +2.7%.
Not a collapse but zero growth in the final quarter is weak.
e&s (premium kitchen/bathroom):
This one’s properly cooked:
Q1: +4.1% total / +0.7% comps
Q2: +1.8% / -1.0%
Q3: -1.4% / -4.8%
Q4: -5.2% total / -8.0% comps
Full year: -0.2% total / -3.2% comps
Straight into negative territory and accelerating downward. That’s the kind of number you see when people stop renovating and stop buying big-ticket discretionary items.
JB Australia slowing hard + Good Guys flatlining + e&s in freefall is a pretty clear signal the Aussie consumer is under real pressure. Discretionary spend is getting cut. This doesn’t look like temporary stock issues or cycling product launches it looks like households are tightening their belts.
Hard to see the RBA finding any justification to hike from here. If anything this kind of broad soft retail data points more toward the next move being a cut once they’re happy inflation is dead.
Anyone else seeing this as the start of a proper consumer recession or still thinking it’s just a soft patch?